Top 25 Mid-Majors: New Mexico Stays Hot
The road to March Madness is heating up! See which mid-major teams are surging and which are slipping in this week’s Bracket Busters breakdown.
We are officially less than a month from Selection Sunday and it’s getting tight out there. We have incredible mid-majors fighting tooth and nail to secure the top coveted spots in their respective conferences, hoping to gain an advantage in their tournaments to secure an auto-bid to the Big Dance. This week, we saw some incredible games. We saw Troy take down Arkansas State on the road, New Mexico and Utah State put on an incredible performance on Sunday right after Bradley took down Drake on the road. That’s just scratching the surface. Let’s dive in!
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There’s not too much more we can say about the New Mexico Lobos. This week, they took down Wyoming and Utah State to move to 22-4 and 14-1 in the Mountain West. There’s no doubt that there was some disappointment in how the Mountain West competed in the NCAA Tournament last season. However, with New Mexico and Utah State this year, I don’t believe that will be a problem. Donovan Dent has been playing incredible this season while Nelly Junior Joseph has been one of the best rebounders in the country. Lethal duo for the Lobos. New Mexico is up to 38th in KenPom as they are in the midst of an eight game winning streak. They take on Boise State this week on Wednesday.
Saint Mary’s is right there with the Lobos as one of the best outside of the power conferences this season. The Gaels took down Santa Clara and Washington State this week. Augustus Marciulionis has been on fire, averaging 19.5 points, 7.5 assists, 3.8 steals, and 3.8 rebounds per game over his last four. Saint Mary’s is 23-4 and 13-1 in the WCC with four more games left in the regular season. They’ll take on Portland on Wednesday and Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels sit at 21st in KenPom and should have inched their way closer to the AP poll.
VCU leap frogged Memphis and Utah State this week after extending their winning streak to four games with wins over Dayton and George Washington this week. The Rams and George Mason are keeping the A-10’s multi-bid dreams alive right now. VCU is 20-5 on the season and 10-2 in the A-10 and will take on UMass and George Mason this week. Pencil in their game against George Mason as it’ll be the first and last time the two top dogs will battle it out in the regular season. This could be a preview of the A-10 conference tournament championship.
Utah State and Memphis both fell in the top five after dropping a game this week. For the Aggies, they fell to New Mexico 82-79 at the Pit. However, they took down Colorado State at home 93-85 earlier in the week. Utah State sits at 22-4 on the season and 12-3 in the Mountain West. Memphis took down South Florida earlier in the week, but dropped an overtime game to Wichita State 84-79 on Sunday. The Tigers are 21-5 on the season and 11-2 in the AAC. For the Aggies, losing to New Mexico is not a bad loss. For the Tigers, losing to the Shockers is unfortunately not a great loss. Thankfully, they could afford this, so it won’t harm their resume too much.
We’ve discussed San Diego State playing with fire in these close games a few times as of late, and to start the week it seemed to not be getting any better. The Aztecs took down San Jose State on the road 69-66 on Tuesday. However, they snapped out of it and put on a defensive clinic against Boise State, holding the Broncos to just 47 points in a 17 point victory. San Diego State is up to 42nd in KenPom, while sitting at 17-6 overall and 10-4 in conference. They’ll take on Fresno State and Utah State this week.
Drake took their first loss since January 5th this week against conference rival Bradley 61-59 on Sunday. The Bulldogs did take care of Illinois State on Wednesday, but following the Bradley loss the Bulldogs sit at 23-3 on the season and 13-3 in the Missouri Valley. Some will say their at-large chances are over, but I don’t buy it. Drake has wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State, with just three losses, which were all close and this last loss is to second place Bradley who we were talking about competing for an at-large bid until just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs are 62nd in KenPom to start the week.
UC San Diego, George Mason, and UC Irvine all took care of business this week. George Mason had a tough week against Saint Louis on the road and then against Saint Joseph’s. They took down Saint Louis 76-74 in an overtime thriller, then they completed an incredible comeback against Saint Joes to pull out a one point victory. The Patriots are up to 21-5 on the season, 12-1 in the A-10 and in the at-large conversation. In the Big West, UC San Diego and UC Irvine both picked up two wins this week. UC San Diego picked up a 19 point victory over Cal State Bakersfield and a 25 point win over UC Davis. UC Irvine knocked off UC Santa Barbara 62-60 on a Devin Tillis buzzer beater, then took down Hawaii 66-49. George Mason is up to 70th in KenPom, UC Irvine is at 67th, and UC San Diego has climbed all the way to 40th!
Looking at 11-15, we had a bit of a shakeup this week. Boise State fell out of the top ten after being dismantled by San Diego State as we previously mentioned. It doesn’t get any easier as they’ll face off against New Mexico and Nevada this week. North Texas took down Rice on Tuesday, which was their only game of the week. The Mean Green are 18-6 and 9-3 in the AAC as they take on Tulsa and South Florida this week. San Francisco split their games this week against Gonzaga and San Diego. It was a valiant effort against the Zags, but the Dons ultimately fell on the road 88-77. They took their anger out on San Diego 84-61. The Dons are 21-7 and 11-4 in the WCC. Liberty is in the middle of a four game winning streak after taking down New Mexico State by ten and UTEP by seven this week, both games on the road. Dayton as mentioned took a loss to VCU by five, but bounced by with a narrow 77-76 victory over Duquesne after Cam Crawford fouled mistakenly with mere seconds remaining for the Dukes. Not a pretty week as you could argue that they should’ve lost that game however, they come out 1-1.
16-20 didn’t see as much movement this week. High Point continues to roll through the Big South as the Panthers took down Longwood and Winthrop. The Panthers are on an eight game winning streak right now and they keep climbing KenPom as they are up to 92nd. High Point sits at 23-5 and 11-2 as they’ll take on Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb this week in two of their final three games of the regular season. Akron did their usual, scoring 105 points in a win over Western Michigan. However, they escaped a scare with an 85-82 victory over Central Michigan on Saturday. The Zips are now 20-5 on the season and a perfect 12-0 as they expanded their streak to 13 games. They’ll take on Northern Illinois and Ohio this week. Santa Clara’s three game winning streak was snapped as they fell to Saint Mary’s 73-64 on Tuesday. The Broncos are still 17-10 on the season and 9-5 in the tough WCC. They’ll face off against Loyola Marymount and Washington State this week. Colorado State split their games this week, falling to Utah State by eight on Tuesday and dominating Wyoming by 35 on Saturday. The Rams are 16-9 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West. Bradley picked up a huge win over Drake on Sunday, 61-59. They also picked up a 14 point victory over a hot SIU Salukis team on Wednesday. The Braves have bounced back from their three game skid with a three game winning streak to move to 21-6 on the season and 12-4 in the MVC.
Rounding out with our 21-25 teams, the Yale Bulldogs are rolling right now. The Bulldogs escaped a trap game against Penn on Friday, winning 72-71. They bounced back with an eye-opening 27 point victory over the Princeton Tigers on Saturday. Yale is up to 16-6 on the season and 9-0 in the Ivy League. They are up to 64th in KenPom. Lipscomb extended their winning streak to five games with wins over Stetson and Florida Gulf Coast. The Bisons have lost just two games since January 9th and are up to 19-8 on the season and 11-3 in the A-Sun. The A-Sun overall is playing ridiculous right now, so the conference tournament is going to be chaos, but the Bisons look like the team to beat right now. Samford stopped the bleeding on a two game skid after dropping a game to Chattanooga on Wednesday by taking down Wofford on Saturday. Trey Fort set a new career high with 36 points for the Bulldogs. Bucky McMillian has the Bulldogs 20-7 and 10-4 in the SoCon. Arkansas State split a couple games this week as well, drilling Southern Mississippi 101-67, but dropping a heart-breaker to rival Troy 71-70. The Red Wolves are 19-8 and 10-4 in the Sun Belt, tied for first. McNeese continues to hang out at No. 25 after taking down East Texas A&M and New Orleans. The Cowboys are 20-6 and 14-1 in the Southland. I don’t feel as confident about the Cowboys as I did last season, but I think people are will going to sleep on Will Wade’s squad in the Big Dance.
I want to take a moment and shout out UNC Wilmington. The Seahawks are 21-6 and 11-3 in the CAA. Their nine game winning streak was snapped by Elon on Saturday, or else the Seahawks would’ve been in our rankings this week. This is a tough team that ranks 117th in KenPom. The CAA is a bit of a toss up, but if they find their way into the tournament, they could be a sneaky bracket buster.
Notable Movement
Santa Clara - #13 → #19
Dropped Out
None
On the Bubble
UNC Wilmington
Charleston
Utah Valley
Grand Canyon
Troy