Top 25 Mid-Majors: Saint Mary's Takes Down Gonzaga
Saint Mary’s is 20-3 and dominating the WCC. Are the Gaels a legit NCAA Tournament threat? Plus, the latest updates on top mid-major programs.
We had an incredible week of college basketball across all ranks. We saw high profile match ups, a ton of upsets, and more. As a result, we had a shakeup among out top 25 teams, but just one team dropped out. Let’s dive into this week’s rankings and recap the last chaotic week of college basketball.
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Rank the Gaels. That’s it, that’s all we need the AP voters to do. By the time this article hits your inbox, the AP poll will be released and if the Saint Mary’s Gaels aren’t in the top 25, just know that somewhere I am morally defeated because I don’t know what else this team has to prove. The Gaels remain our number one team this week after going 2-0 in their toughest week of the season against Santa Clara and Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s is now 20-3 on the season and a perfect 10-0 in the West Coast Conference. On the road against Santa Clara, they stayed true to their rebounding dominance by out-rebounding the Broncos 39 to 25. It wasn’t the Gaels best shooting performance, but once again their defense came through. The Zags came into Saturday as a questionable slight favorite over Saint Mary’s despite the game being in Moraga. The Gaels defense completely shut Gonzaga’s offense down in the first half, while Saint Mary’s shot 7-12 from 3pt. However, their free throws were an albatross as they would finish just 11-22 from the line while holding off Gonzaga 62-58. Mikey Lewis was the difference maker off the bench with 16 points, including four threes. This might be the year folks that Saint Mary’s makes a run in the NCAA Tournament. They are up to 24th in KenPom, they rank as 19th in defensive efficiency and 32nd in offensive efficiency. KenPom has them losing just one game on the road at Gonzaga, but that prediction is by just five points. This week, they’ll have another tough schedule, taking on San Francisco and Oregon State both on the road.
New Mexico is red hot right now. The Lobos have won four games in a row after taking that tough one point loss to San Jose State on the road. They played just one game this week, but it was a monster 82-63 win over Utah State. As a result, New Mexico slides into our second spot on our rankings. The duo of Nelly Junior Joseph and Donovan Dent is lethal as Dent didn’t post his usual 25-30 point game, but Junior Joseph posted a 15 point and 13 rebound double-double. It was a dominant defensive performance as they out-rebounded the Aggies 48-33 and held Utah State to just 5-31 shooting from beyond the arc. The Aggies also shot themselves in the foot with a 10-23 performance from the free throw line. The Lobos are now up to 42nd in KenPom and rank 30th in defensive efficiency and 77th in offensive efficiency.
Memphis extended their winning streak to five games this week with wins over Tulane and Rice. The Tigers are now 18-3 and 8-1 in the AAC, while some of their non-conference wins just continue to improve in UNLV, Michigan State, etc. The Tigers are up to 41st in KenPom and have the 38th best defensive efficiency and 61st offensive efficiency.
VCU took a 78-69 loss to Saint Louis on Tuesday where we saw an actual fight in the stands. They took their frustration out on poor Richmond on Saturday, taking them down 90-49. The Rams are the A-10’s last hope at being a multi-bid league this season, so fortunately for them the Saint Louis loss isn’t a game one. VCU shot abysmally in this one, just 32.8% overall and 5-31 from deep. They had just nine assists and committed 27 fouls. A bit of an ugly game overall as free throws were the difference where SLU shot 30-39 from the line. Against Richmond, it was just a blood bath. The Rams shot 64.7% overall and went 16-29 from three point. Richmond was never in this one as the score was 44-13 at halftime. Despite the loss this week, VCU sits at 37th in KenPom with the 21st best defensive efficiency rating and 65th in offensive efficiency.
San Diego State went 2-0 this week, but it wasn’t easy. They took down San Jose State 71-68 and Wyoming 63-61. The Aztecs are now up to 15-5 on the season and 8-3 in the Mountain West. However, in their four game winning streak they’ve beaten three of the bottom half teams by a possession or less. Their three point shooting is killing them. Against Wyoming they shot just 22.7%, against San Jose State it was 36.8% and against Air Force the week prior it was 22.2%. It’s obvious that their shooting from deep is their biggest question mark as defensively they are still a sound team. They rank 9th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, but just 129th in offensive efficiency. They are the only team in the top 50 KenPom teams to have an offensive efficiency rating outside of the top 100. They still have a month to figure it out, but they need to do so and quickly.
Bradley had quite the disappointing week, getting blown out 93-70 by UIC at home and taking another loss to Northern Iowa 83-69 where the Braves were down 30 points at one point. The Braves squeaked out a win over Illinois State in the week prior and there were some issues starting to show. Prior to that game, Bradley was one of the best three point shooting teams in the country, but against the Redbirds, they shot 4-18. In their loss against UIC they shot 6-24 from deep, then 8-21 against Northern Iowa. Combined they are 18-63 in this three game stretch which sits them at 28.5%. Bradley is now down to 95th in KenPom and their schedule doesn’t get easier this week against Belmont and their high octane offense at home, then an Evansville team on the road that’s been playing some of their best ball of the season as of late.
The UC Irvine Anteaters move to 20-3 on the season and 10-1 in the Big West as they take down Long Beach State 80-75 in overtime and UC Davis 73-66. Admittedly, I didn’t catch much of the Long Beach State game as I was travelling this week, but I did catch a chunk of the UC Davis game. One thing that has impressed me about the Anteaters this season is, when they are struggling for a bit, they always preserve. I watched them do it live against Belmont in December and they did it again on Saturday against UC Davis. UC Irvine was down 34-33 at halftime, but a nice second half gave them the lift they needed. Bent Leuchten is one of the more underrated players in the country as he posted 21 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists. Myles Che and Justin Hohn followed up with 17 points each. As a team, they finished shooting 43.4% and 56.3% from deep. They are now up to 62nd in KenPom, 8th in defensive efficiency and 188th in offensive efficiency.
Drake re-entered the top 10 this week as they are in the middle of an eight game winning streak and are now 20-2 on the season. The Bulldogs have simply been unbelievable this season as their only two losses came back-to-back in January against UIC and Murray State. Their wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State continues to improve as the weeks go on and I believe there is a legitimate discussion to be had about an at-large bid for the Drake Bulldogs. This week they held off Northern Iowa 66-52 and Southern Illinois 75-65. They are up to 64th in KenPom with the 56th best defensive efficiency and 81st best offensive efficiency.
Outside of the top ten, UC San Diego moves to 18-4 after taking down Hawaii on Thursday 74-63. The Tritons are up to 62nd in KenPom. Dayton took another loss to St. Bonaventure in a beat down 75-63, but bounced back with a 71-63 victory over Saint Louis. North Texas was looking to break into the top ten, but lost to UT San Antonio 54-50 keeping them out this week. The Mean Green at 16-5 on the season and 7-2 in the AAC, but this loss is going to hurt their at-large resume.
Santa Clara stopped a two game skid after dropping back-to-back games against Oregon State and Saint Mary’s with a dominate 83-49 win over Pacific. George Mason moved up to 15th as the Patriots are on fire with a seven game winning streak. The Patriots are 17-5 on the season and 8-1 in the A-10. They are rolling right now as they are up to 72nd in KenPom and look to extend their streak to nine over George Washington and Rhode Island this week.
Arkansas State is also red hot as they are in a middle of seven game winning streak as well. The Red Wolves are up to 18-5 on the season and 9-2 in conference. During this stretch, they’ve scored at least 80 points. They take on Marshall and Kent State in the highly anticipated Sun Belt and MAC challenge.
Akron is steamrolling the MAC right now. They are 16-5 on the season and 9-0 in the MAC. Similar to Arkansas State this is a highly proficient offensive unit. In conference, they’ve broken 100+ points twice and they’ve scored less than 80 points just once. It’s hard to see Akron dropping a game, but the MAC is always tough so they could have one sneak by. They’ll take on Ball State and South Alabama in the Sun Belt and MAC challenge.
McNeese lost their first game in conference to Nicholls on Saturday 71-63. The Cowboys went 0-12 from three point while Joe Charles was held scoreless in 35 minutes, Christian Shumate had four points, and DJ Richards Jr. has two points. Rough offensive performance, but the Cowboys are still 16-6 on the season and 10-1 in the Southland. I had a hard time keeping them ranked, but they are still 65th in KenPom with the 70th best offensive efficiency and 67th best defensive efficiency. They won’t get an at-large bid, so hopefully they rebound well and tear through February.
Princeton is the only team to drop out this week. I debated about dropping them out last week after their nine point loss to Cornell, but I’m not a big believer in dropping teams dramatically for a one game result. However, after falling to Yale by seven, it’s the first time that Princeton hasn’t been ranked in our top 25 all season. They have a couple of favorable games coming up against Penn and Brown, so the Tigers will look to bounce back.
Replacing Princeton is one of the most underrated teams in the country, Cleveland State. The Vikings had a mediocre performance in non-conference, but my goodness have they been hot in conference. The Vikings are 17-6 and 11-1 in the Horizon. Tevin Smith has been a key player for this team. Smith is averaging 16.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game in conference play. Admittedly, the Vikings conference schedule was favorable in the first half as they’ve already played Green Bay twice for example, but they have already knocked off Purdue Fort Wayne just this week. Keep your eyes on the Vikings.
Notable Movement
George Mason - #18 → #11
Bradley - #7 → #15
Drake #12 → #8
Dropped Out
Princeton
On the Bubble
Colorado State
Charleston
Utah Valley
Grand Canyon
Northern Colorado
Cleveland St. is hot in the conference, cool. Yale is hot in their conference and ranks 100 points ahead of Cleveland St. in KenPom.