Most Improved Mid-Major Teams of the 2024-2025 Season
Explore how Elon, North Dakota State, and Middle Tennessee revamped their rosters and climbed the rankings in the 2024-2025 college basketball season.
With the new era of the transfer portal and NIL, it’s possible for a coaching staff to take a team and completely rebuild within one offseason. As we begin 2025, let’s take a look at the teams that have improved the most from the 2023-2024 season to the 2024-2025 season.
Elon Phoenix
KenPom Rankings:
2023-2024: 317th
2024-2025 (as of 12/31/24): 149th
The Elon Phoenix are currently the most improved mid-major in the country in Billy Taylor’s third year as the head coach. Elon finished the 2023-2024 season 13-19 and 6-12 in the CAA which placed them at 317th in KenPom. Entering 2025, the Phoenix are 9-4 and 149th in KenPom. What has changed?
Looking at their top performers so far, there are just two new faces on the team, TJ Simpkins & Matthew Van Komen. TJ’s brother TK was a member of the team last season and the two tagged up this season after TJ transferred in from North Western Florida. The two are averaging a combined 29.2 points per game so far. Van Komen transferred over from Saint Mary’s after playing in a minimal role on the Gaels last season. Here’s a breakdown of their top five performers:
Nick Dorn
15.8 points, 3.5 rebounds
43.5% FG, 41% 3pt
TJ Simpkins
14.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals
42.8% FG, 24.4% 3pt
TK Simpkins
14.3 points, 4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.3 steals
45.8% FG, 32.1% 3pt
Sam Sherry
13.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists
45.7% FG, 40% 3pt
Matthew Van Komen
5.8 points, 9 rebounds
74.4% FG
What makes Elon an interesting case study is, they didn’t rebuild their entire team in the portal. Just two players who are significant contributors on the team transferred onto the team. A true rarity in today’s college basketball. Digging into some of their advanced metrics, you’ll note some interesting changes. Let’s look at their tempo ranks (nationally):
2022-2023: 256th
2023-2024: 238th
2024-2025: 301st
Billy Taylor has completely changed the pace of the game for the Phoenix, all while playing a more difficult schedule as well. The slower pace allows them to crash the boards more effectively. Last season, they had just a 28.7% offensive rebound percentage (160th in the country) and now they are up to 37.1% which placed them at 23rd in the country.
Offensively, they are about middle of the pack, but that’s made up by their stout defensive which we will discuss shortly. On the offensive end, they rank 169th in overall efficiency, 173rd in effective field goal percentage, 161st in 3pt percentage, 181st in 2pt percentage, 201st in free throw percentage, and 264th in turnover percentage.
Another positive about the slower pace? Better control of the game on the defensive end. The Phoenix struggled defensively within the arc last season, allowing opponents to finish 54.5% of their shots (339th). This season, they’ve flipped the script, allowing just 44.2% (24th).
Across the defensive board, they are remarkably better. They rank 33rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 5th in free throw/field goal attempts, 32nd in block rate. However, there is still room for improvement on the perimeter defense where they rank 316th in opponent three points made per game.
Long story short? The Phoenix are slowing the game down and it’s working. Keep your eyes on Elon as they open up conference play against North Carolina A&T on Thursday, January 2nd.
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North Dakota State
KenPom Rankings:
2023-2024: 279th
2024-2025 (as of 12/31/24): 111th
North Dakota State has been a blast to watch this season, and if you love offense, the Bison will not disappoint. The Bison are 11-4 on the season after going just 15-17 the season prior. David Richman has been the head coach since 2014 and he’s experienced some ups-and-downs. However, this season’s team is looking like they may be able to match or surpass his best season in 2019-2020 with a 25-8 record.
The Bison rank in the top five teams in the country in 3pt percentage at a remarkable 41.2%. They also rank in the top 30 of free throw percentage and top 70 of shots made inside the arc. Their overall effective field goal percentage places them at third in the country with 59.4%.
This is a high octane offense that ranks in the top 50 of offensive efficiency per KenPom. They’re averaging a whopping 80.7 points per game right now. However, the offensive focus does come at a cost on the defensive ends. The Bison avoid crashing the boards, ranking just 321st in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. They are nearly dead last in turnovers forced per game at just a tad over seven per game.
It’s clear that Coach Richman has put a focus on the offense this season with the goal of simply outscoring their opponents without needed to hold their own on the defensive end. How does this compare to the team last season that finished in the bottom third of teams?
The Bison had a solid offensive team last season, but they weren’t as efficient as the team this season. Across the board, they are offensively better than the year prior:
On the defensive end, the Bison have improved slightly as well. They still aren’t an incredibly efficient team on the defensive end, but they are up across the board:
Take note of their 3pt percentage defense. Last season, they were 334th in the country, allowing opponents to 36.8% shooting. This season, they have skyrocketed to 14th in the country at just 28.2% from beyond the arc. While they aren’t racking up steals or blocks at an exponential rate, they are sticking to the fundamentals and playing solid defensive while improving their offense even more comparatively.
The Bison have won eight games in a row and they are projected to lose just two more games for the rest of the season to St. Thomas and South Dakota State (both projected by just two points), so there’s a genuine chance that this Bisons team is going to be an upset favorite come March Madness. Coach Richman has done a tremendous job changing his team’s mindset this season, so you’re going to want to keep an eye on this team for the remainder of the season.
Middle Tennessee
KenPom Rankings:
2023-2024: 282nd
2024-2025 (as of 12/31/24): 128th
We just published a list of “Dark Horse” teams to watch this season (linked below) and Middle Tennessee was one of those teams so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Blue Raiders are one of the most improved teams this season.
Dark Horse Mid-Majors Flying Under the Radar
As we wrap up the non-conference season, we’re starting to see where teams stand comparatively to their preseason projections. Let’s take a look at five teams that are looking like potential dark horses within their conferences.
Head Coach Nick McDevitt took over the reigns in 2017 and has seen some up-and-down seasons. However, over the last three seasons he’s gotten the ball rolling. In 2021-2022, they finished 26-11, then 19-14, but they had a down season last year when they finished just 14-19. This season, the Blue Raiders are back (9-4) and a force in an excellent Conference USA.
McDevitt picked up some big pieces in the transfer portal. Looking at their top five performers, three were added during the offseason:
Essam Mostafa (TCU)
12.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.2 steals
57.8% FG
Jlynn Counter (IU Indy)
10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists
51.2% FG, 34.6% 3pt
Kamari Lands (Arizona State)
9.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals
35.5% FG, 25% 3pt
Putting it bluntly, the Blue Raiders offense was rough last season. They ranked below 300 in nearly all offensive categories. However, Coach McDevitt has flipped the script this season.
Last season, they ranked 315th in 3pt percentage, 338th in 2pt percentage, 265th in free throw percentage, 334th in effective field goal percentage, and 341st in turnover percentage. Overall, they were 311th in offensive efficiency. Needless to say, they struggled to score. They finished 344th in points per game at just 64.4 per game.
This season, they are at a much more respectable 122nd in points per game at 75.8 on average. They aren’t the most incredible offensive team, but they are now more middle of the pack. They sit at 196th in effective field goal percentage, 131st in turnover percentage, 268th in 3pt percentage, 146th in 2pt percentage, and 212st in free throw percentage.
On the defensive end, they’ve really taken some large steps this season. The Blue Raiders are one of the best perimeter defenders in the country at 31st, holding opponents to just 28.8% shooting from beyond the arc. They’re nearly in the top 100 in effective field goal percentage at 107th, holding opponents to just 48.5%. Overall, they are about the same with some minor improvements here or there.
Something worth calling out is MTSU’s strength of schedule. Last season, even with a down year, they ranked 153th overall. This season, they are up to 99th. Their four losses came to three tough Missouri Valley teams and No. 1 Tennessee. This is a well rounded team that has improved enough offensively to be a true dark horse in the Conference USA.
Even if the Blue Raiders don’t make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll most likely appear in some sort of postseason tournament and you aren’t going to want to miss this tough team.