Dark Horse Mid-Majors Flying Under the Radar

From Illinois State to Mount St. Mary’s, these college basketball teams are poised to outperform expectations this season.

As we wrap up the non-conference season, we’re starting to see where teams stand comparatively to their preseason projections. Let’s take a look at five teams that are looking like potential dark horses within their conferences.

Illinois State

I talked heavily about the Illinois State Redbirds and how they could finish as a top four team within the Missouri Valley (you can read their offseason review below). After starting off the season with a tough 67-65 loss to UT Martin at home, they immediately bounced back with wins over North Dakota State and Ohio. The Redbirds are 8-4 with losses to UT Martin, McNeese (76-68), George Washington (72-64), and Belmont (99-97). Looking at the rankings of each of those teams: UT Martin is 5-8 and sits at 289th in KenPom, McNeese is 6-5 and 88th in KenPom, George Washington is 11-2 and 132nd in KenPom, while Belmont is 9-3 and 131st in KenPom. UT Martin is the outlier here, but the Skyhawks are starting to figure it out after a one point loss to Morehead State and a bloodbath win against Southern Indiana 77-46, so come conference play this loss could smooth over.

The Redbirds aren’t going to have an at-large resume, but they could be sneaky in the Missouri Valley. Drake and Bradley are the obvious talking points of the MVC which is currently in position to be a potential two-bid league. However, Illinois State could be a sneaky team come Arch Madness.

One stat really stands out for me when looking at their data and it’s their 3pt shooting. The Redbirds sit at third in 3pt percentage behind Bradley and UTEP at 41.7%. However, they are just 74th in 3pt attempts per game at 26.3 on average. What this shows me is, they take smart shots. They aren’t throwing up 35-40 threes a game and just hoping some land. They have excellent ball movement which is shown by their strong Assist/Turnover ratio which is 72nd in the nation at 1.4 per game.

The Redbirds shot selection is going to help them win ball games as they sit 26th overall at 49.6% from the floor. This is pretty remarkable as they haven’t played a cupcake schedule. Per KenPom they sit at 227th, which in my opinion is a little bit low. They’ve picked up wins over North Dakota State, Ohio, UAB, and Saint Louis which were all heavily regarded in the preseason, Cornell, Pacific, and Northern Illinois. Is it the strongest among the league? No, but it should be more towards the middle of the pack across college basketball.

Looking at the players, Chase Walker has stepped up massively after Myles Foster transferred out last season. Walker is averaging 15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game so far. As he continues to develop, he’ll be a walking double-double. Johnny Kinziger has stepped up as well, averaging 13.8 points, four rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.1 steals on 43.7% shooting and 43.1% 3pt shooting. Kinziger, Ty Pence, Landon Wolf, Jack Daugherty, and Caden Boser are all shooting over 40% from deep so far.

There’s a lot to like about this Redbirds team and their strong offense. Keep an eye on them as they enter Missouri Valley play against UIC on December 29th and Murray State on January 2nd.

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Winthrop

It’s been all High Point in the offseason conversations regarding the Big South. The Panthers received 17 of the 18 votes to win the Big South this season, while the Winthrop Eagles received the other vote. While you might not consider the team projected to finish 2nd in the conference as a “Dark Horse”, but we’re classifying them as such because they could not a dark horse in both the Big South and the NCAA Tournament.

The Eagles are currently 10-4 on the season with their only losses coming to Virginia Tech (58-52), Georgia Southern (89-87), Louisville (76-61), and Florida State (82-64). The Eagles are 184th in KenPom, but their strength of schedule certainly isn’t flattering at 335th. I again disagree with this because just looking at their losses they’ve played three ACC schools and picked up wins over Ohio Valley favorites Little Rock and other reasonable mid-majors in William & Mary and Mercer.

This Winthrop team has silently been relentless on the defense end. The Eagles are 11th in the country in turnovers forced per game, which they then turn into offense where they rank 35th in fastbreak points. Among six of their nine players that average over 10 minutes per game, they’re shooting 42.9% or better.

Kelton Talford, K.J. Doucet, and Kasen Harrison have been a lethal trio so far for the Eagles. Talford is averaging 14.9 points, eight rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game. Doucet is averaging 14 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists on a remarkable 55.1% shooting and 41.7% from 3pt. Harrison is averaging 13.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals on 54.1% shooting.

High Point has been knocked off in the Big South tournament before and this Winthrop team could potentially do it again.

UNC Wilmington

It seems like we discuss UNC Wilmington every year once conference play rolls around and it’s no different this season. The Seahawks are 9-3 on the season with some nice wins over App State, East Carolina, and UNC Asheville. Their three losses have come from No. 1 Kansas (84-66), Colgate (72-59), and Howard (88-83). The Seahawks currently sit at 133rd in KenPom.

In the preseason, Towson was nabbed as the preseason favorites in the Colonial Athletic Association, while Charleston was picked second and UNC Wilmington third. We all knew it was going to be a fun conference to watch this season, however, Towson has disappointed so far while Charleston has emerged as the favorites with UNCW and Hofstra not far behind. Hampton was picked to finish last, but the Pirates are 7-5 on the season and 1-0 in the conference. Chaos to say the least.

If you are unfamiliar with Donovan Newby, you’ve been missing out. The senior guard is averaged 16.8 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on 43.8% shooting. He’s posted some monster lines including a 33 points performance against Georgia Southern. The Seahawks have a strong supporting cast with Khamari McGriff averaging 11.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.1 locks on 70.5% shooting. Noah Ross, Nolan Hodge, Harlan Obioha, Joshua Corbin, and Sean Moore are all averaging 7 points or more in this deep rotation. Nine players are averaging over 17 minutes per game, while Elijah Jamison hasn’t played since November 27th.

Studying the players, it should be no shock that UNCW ranks 37th in the country in bench points per game at over 30 per game. In this new era of college basketball, it’s rare to find teams with a lot of depth. Looking back at last season, Indiana State went on their run with essentially a six or seven man rotation, Drake is doing it similarly this season. UNCW however has a deep bench and it’s a major help each game.

This UNCW team also sticks to the fundamentals and finishes at the line. The Seahawks ran seventh in the country with 26.9 free throw attempts per game, while finishing 20.2 per game which is good enough for fifth across college basketball.

Keep an eye out for how the Seahawks take on conference play against preseason favorites Towson on January 2nd.

Middle Tennessee

Liberty and Louisiana Tech have been the hype of Conference USA, but UTEP, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee all would like some room to talk in this tough conference. The Blue Raiders are 9-4 on the season with their only four losses coming from Murray State (88-67), Bradley (80-69), Belmont (82-79), and No. 1 Tennessee (82-64). MTSU currently sits at 128th in KenPom with the 84th hardest schedule.

The Blue Raiders have picked up some nice wins over Ohio, South Florida, UAB, Lipscomb, and an underrated California Baptist team. However, they’ve struggled against the Missouri Valley, going 1-3 with their only win being over the 3-9 Evansville Purple Aces. However, keep in mind that we are on track to once again discussing whether or not the MVC could be a two-bid league come March.

Essam Mostafa is a walking double-double machine, averaging 12.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.2 steals on 57.8% shooting. Meanwhile Jestin Porter is averaging 15.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.4 steals. Camryn Weston is averaging 11.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.2 steals. This is a deep team with nine players averaging at least 14.3 minutes per game.

As foreshadowed by Mostafa, this Blue Raiders team is an elite rebounding team. MTSU ranks 35th in the country at 40.2 rebounds per game. They rank 71st in offensive rebounds at 12.7 per game and 64th in defensive rebounds at 27.4 per game. They are also lock down perimeter defenders where they rank 4th in the country in 3pt defense behind Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Furman.

This is a well rounded and deep team that has all of the makeup to be a dark horse contender in both the Conference USA and the NCAA Tournament if they can break their way in.

Mount St. Mary’s

Mount St. Mary’s recently took down Miami 78-74 in an overtime win, in which legendary long-time coach Jim Larranaga stepped down and retired following the loss. Donny Lind is in his first year as head coach of the Mountaineers and he has them 8-4 and 235th in KenPom.

The Mountaineers have fallen to Maryland (86-52), Georgetown (79-51), Marist (53-50) and Loyola Maryland (77-69). The Loyola Maryland loss sticks out, but losing to two power conference schools and a tough 8-2 Marist team isn’t bad at all. In terms of their wins, the Miami win is obviously the highlight of their schedule, but they’ve also knocked off Howard, Delaware State, St Francis, Fairfield, and Long Island.

Quinnipiac was selected to finish first in the MAAC this season, with Marist in second, then Iona and Fairfield. Mount St. Mary’s was picked 11th out of 13 teams, however, Donny Lind has a different finish in mind. The Mountaineers are already 1-1 in conference and are looking for more.

Dallas Hobbs is averaging 14 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game on 37.6% shooting. Terrell Ard Jr is averaging 11.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.4 steals on 54.2% shooting. Dola Adebayo is also averaging 11.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, one assist, and 1.2 blocks on 51% shooting.

The Mountaineers rank 95th in rebounds per game at 38.1 per game. They also rank 128th in steals per game at 7.7 and 29th in 3pt defense, allowing just 28.4% shooting from opponents. This team isn’t going to be a favorite among computer metrics or statistics, but at it’s level the Mountaineers are a solid defensive squad.

It’s been a fun story so far for Donny Lind in his first year on the job and he has the potential to keep it running as conference play officially opens up for the remainder of the season.