Bracket Busters Podcast Episode 1: Can we see Six Mountain West Teams in March Madness?

If you follow college basketball closely, you’ve probably noticed some Mountain West schools come and go from the AP Top 25 rankings. We’ve seen San Diego State, Colorado State, and Utah State all enter the ranks while Nevada has sat on the cusp of the top 25, ranking in the top 30.

Currently as of the morning of 01/18/24 when I’m writing this, the Mountain West currently has 5 teams in the top 50 NET Rankings and one just outside at 54. Here’s where they currently line up:

• San Diego St – 20

• Colorado St – 22

• Utah St – 24

• Net Mexico 28

• Nevada – 45

• Boise St – 54

In terms of KenPom, here’s where those same teams sit:

• San Diego St – 21

• Colorado St – 29

• Utah St – 41

• New Mexico - 31

• Nevada – 47

• Boise St – 56

Overall, these are similar rankings except for Utah State. It appears that the KenPom did not enjoy Utah State’s strength of schedule or their adjusted defense efficiency comparatively to the other 5 schools we are discussing.

Looking at the surface here, 5 teams in the NCAA tournament is probably the most realistic scenario but given how close all these teams are it’s possible that we do see six Mountain West teams come march. The main factor here is going to be beating the teams that you must in the league, and that comes at a risk because let’s look at UNLV. UNLV currently sits at 83 in the NET and 78 in the KenPom, both very respectable numbers for their level of basketball. However, that opens the prime possibility for UNLV to knock off one of these top 6 teams to potentially ruin their chances at an at-large. In fact, the Rebels have already knocked off both New Mexico and Boise State in the early parts of Mountain West play. If they can keep that up, who knows, maybe we’ll be talking about them taking Boise State’s spot on this list.

Looking at some of the bracketologists, here’s where the Mountain West sits:

Bracket Dom:

• San Deigo State – 5 Seed

• Colorado State – 5 Seed

• Utah State – 6 Seed

• New Mexico – First Four Out

• Nevada – 9 Seed

• Boise State – 11 Seed (Last Four in)

JBR Bracketology:

• San Deigo State – 6 Seed

• Colorado State – 7 Seed

• Utah State – 5 Seed

• New Mexico – First Four Out

• Nevada – 10 Seed

• Boise State – 11 Seed (Last Four in)

T3 Bracketology

• San Deigo State – 6 Seed

• Colorado State – 5 Seed

• Utah State – 6 Seed

• New Mexico – First Four Out

• Nevada – 8 Seed

• Boise State – 11 Seed

Pretty similar across the board among these three, but it shows that the consensus is, the Mountain West COULD see six teams in March Madness. What do these teams have to do to get there?

For starters as previously mentioned, they must beat the lower-level teams. You can’t afford a loss to San Jose State, Air Force, Wyoming, or Fresno State. That would just be a nail in the coffin for a six-bid league. However, you can take an acceptable loss to UNLV. As noted, UNLV has already knocked off two of the teams in consideration. Honestly, it might even help in UNLV knocks off one more team so they could potentially move up to a Quad 2 ranking and help further strengthen the other schools’ resumes.

There is still a lot of games to be played, we are just halfway through January. Looking at upcoming schedules, here’s how the teams need to play out to keep the chances alive going into February:

San Diego State

• 1/20 – Boise State -> Lose

• 1/23 – Wyoming -> Win

• 1/30 – Colorado State -> Win

Colorado State

• 1/19 – UNLV -> Win

• 1/24 – Nevada -> Lose

• 1/27 – Wyoming -> Win

• 1/30 – San Deigo State -> Lose

Utah State

• 1/20 – Fresno State -> Win

• 1/27 – Boise State -> Lose

• 1/30 - San Jose State -> Win

New Mexico

• 1/20 – Air Force -> Win

• 1/24 – San Jose State -> Win

• 1/28 – Nevada -> Win

• 1/31 – Boise State -> Win

Nevada

• 1/20 – Wyoming -> Win

• 1/24 – Colorado State -> Win

• 1/28 – New Mexico -> Lose

Boise State

• 1/20 – San Diego State -> Win

• 1/23 - Fresno State -> Win

• 1/27 – Utah State -> Win

• 1/31 – New Mexico -> Lose

From the above, you can see that it’s probably going to be very difficult for all six teams to make it to the tournament. The Mountain West is a gauntlet and with the nature of league play, anyone can win on any given day. All this talk is dependent on these teams not losing to the lower-level teams and we all know that that is not a given.

Our consensus is, yes, the Mountain West could be a 6-bid, but it is going to be extremely difficult, and everything is going to have to play out just perfectly to end up in this scenario.