Will the Big West Get Two Bids? UC San Diego & UC Irvine's Case
UCSD & UCI are battling for NCAA bids. Will both teams make it, or will history repeat with one left out? Here’s their case for March Madness.
Last season, we discussed the possibility of a two-bid Missouri Valley for the majority of the year. Indiana State finished the year 28-6 while reaching the status of “Highest Ranking NET team in history to miss the NCAA Tournament”. Drake earned the auto-bid from the Missouri Valley, but with a number of bid-stealers, the committee opted to leave the Sycamores out of the bracket.
While many of us mid-major basketball fans were upset, I’ve had the privilege to talk to a few fans. They expressed that while it was disappointing, making a run to the NIT finals was a blast for them as well. Still, nothing beats rooting for your team in the NCAA Tournament.
This year, we are having the same conversation, but for a different league. The Big West is positioning itself to have the potential of being a multi-bid league with the incredible seasons from UC Irvine and UC San Diego. Currently, both teams are 20-4 overall and 10-2 within the Big West. They have knocked each other off notably both on the road. Their other loss came from the same school in UC Riverside.
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Overall, the Big West is in a better spot which helps elevate the status this season. Here are where the schools rank in KenPom:
UC San Diego - 50th
UC Irvine - 70th
CSUN - 121st
UC Santa Barbara - 148th
UC Riverside - 162nd
Hawaii - 199th
UC Davis - 220th
Cal St. Bakersfield - 249th
Cal Poly - 232nd
Long Beach State - 313th
Cal St. Fullerton - 325th
In total, the Big West ranks 12th overall right behind the Missouri Valley and American Athletic Conferences. Unfortunately, we all know the history of the selection committee. Many times we will see a mediocre power conference school placed in front of those smaller schools from outside conferences that have proven themselves to be capable of being within the big dance. Let’s put our selection committee caps on and take a look at UC San Diego and UC Irvine’s resumes:
UC Irvine
KenPom - 70th
Offensive Efficiency - 189th
Defensive Efficiency - 15th
NET Rankings - 63rd
Quad 1: 1-1
Quad 2: 3-1
Quad 3: 7-2
Quad 4: 8-0
Notable Wins:
Northern Iowa (108th KenPom) - Away
80-60
Kennesaw State (161st KenPom) - Neutral
76-59
Kent State (133rd KenPom) - Neutral
51-39
Towson (170th KenPom) - Neutral
67-60
Belmont (127th KenPom) - Away
92-84
UC San Diego (50th KenPom) - Away
60-52
Notable Losses:
Oregon State (73rd KenPom) - Away
67-55
Duquesne (155th KenPom) - Away
70-54
UC Riverside (162nd KenPom) - Away
84-80 (OT)
UC San Diego (50th KenPom) - Home
85-67
UC San Diego
KenPom - 50th
Offensive Efficiency - 61st
Defensive Efficiency - 49th
NET Rankings - 49th
Quad 1: 2-1
Quad 2: 0-1
Quad 3: 8-2
Quad 4: 8-0
Notable Wins:
James Madison (147th KenPom) - Neutral
73-67
Utah State (52nd KenPom) - Away
75-73
UC Irvine (70th KenPom) - Away
60-52
Toledo (200th KenPom) - Neutral
80-45
Notable Losses:
San Diego State (49th KenPom) - Away
63-58
Seattle (143rd KenPom) - Home
84-71
UC Irvine (70th KenPom) - Home
60-52
UC Riverside (162nd KenPom) - Away
85-81
On the surface, these resumes are nearly identical. Each school has four losses each, one to each other, one to UC Riverside, then it splits off. UC Irvine lost to an Oregon State team who has been solid this season at 17-8 and 7-5 in the WCC with wins over Gonzaga, Santa Clara, and Washington State. UC San Diego has lost to San Diego State who is 15-6 and 8-4 in the Mountain West with wins over Creighton, Houston, Boise State, Colorado State, etc. Then, both teams have a questionable loss in Duquesne and Seattle, but at least they are both above 150 in KenPom.
As we have a month left of basketball in the Big West, both teams are anticipated to win out per KenPom. This would put them at 28-4 on the season going into the conference tournament. As a result, the ideal scenario would be for the two schools to battle it out in the Big West Conference Championship. Looking at the resumes, the ideal scenario would be UC Irvine to win the tournament and hoping that UC San Diego’s resume is enough to get them over the bubble. At this point, many college basketball analysts have the Tritons on the bubble rather than UC Irvine.
What would exempting one of these teams leave us without? For UC Irvine, the Anteaters have one of the most stout defenses outside of the power conferences. Bent Leuchten is averaging 16 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.2 blocks per game. Devin Tillis is averaging 13.3 points, eight rebounds, and two assists. In total, the Anteaters have four players averaging 12 points per game. As a team, they rank 12th in opponent field goal percentage, 3rd in defensive rebounds per game, and 40th in scoring defense.
For UC San Diego, if you are unfamiliar with Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, you need to learn the name asap. The 6’6 senior is averaging 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. He is one of the most underrated players in the country outside of the power conferences. Tyler McGhie is also averaging 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and one steal per game. This is a stout offensive team that ranks 43rd in effective field goal percentage, 23rd in fastbreak points, 42nd in scoring offense, 45th in free throw percentage.
Overall, I am skeptical that we will see a multi-bid Big West based on how the committee has selected teams in the past. Regardless, it’s been a remarkable season for UC Irvine, UC San Diego, and the conference as a whole. Which ever team does not make the NCAA Tournament will most definitely be invited to the NIT. Perhaps we will see a similar result of last season where the odd team out makes a run in the NIT. The better result will be the most deserving, which is both teams making the NCAA Tournament.