Missouri Valley Conference Faces Realignment
Friday, May 10th was a crazy day among Mid-Major College Athletics. Missouri State is leaving the Missouri Valley and joining Conference USA. Who will be the next to join the Missouri Valley?
Since the Transfer Portal closed on May 1st, it’s been relatively quiet around College Basketball outside of commitments from athletes in the portal. That quiet period lasted just 10 days before chaos broke out on Friday, May 10th.
Missouri State who has been a member of the Missouri Valley Conference since 1990 announced that they would be leaving and joining Conference USA in 2025. A short time later, Seattle U and Grand Canyon announced that they would be leaving the Western Athletic Conference and joining the West Coast Conference.
With the world of NIL money and College Football exploding with revenue, there’s been more conference realignment over the last couple of years than a decade before. You’ve seen schools like UMass leave the A10 after decades to join the MAC for football purposes. Kennesaw State is also joining Conference USA for football purposes. The list goes on. Everyone wants a slice of the FBS for that increased revenue potential.
Let’s start with the Missouri Valley, what does this mean with Missouri State leaving? I want to start off by saying, on the surface it isn’t the end of the world. The Men’s Basketball team hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1999. Their football program has had just two FCS playoff appearances since 1990. However, their Women’s Basketball team has been a powerhouse. They’ve won 20+ games 8 out of the last 9 seasons, including 4 NCAA Appearances, in which they were a 5 seed in 2021 where they lost in the Sweet 16 to Stanford. The Bears’ Baseball team has went to the College World Series 5 times (2 Super Regionals Appearances) in the last 12 years and won 30+ games 8 out of those 12 seasons.
This is a school that succeeds in athletics as a whole, but the two most visible programs have struggled to meet their expectations. This move seems interesting to say the least. Conference USA was ranked 15th according to KenPom while the Missouri Valley was the 10th best conference for Men’s Basketball. Obviously, this is not a basketball move. You can judge that based off the graphic that the Conference USA X Account posted to announce their transition:
However, making the move just for football is questionable in itself. Liberty is the current powerhouse in the conference, while New Mexico State, Jacksonville State, and Western Kentucky have all had their moments in the light over the last few seasons as well. For Missouri State, they struggle in the Missouri Valley, so seeing immediate success in this strong of a conference will be unlikely.
In general, Conference USA might have the wonkiest geographically located schools among all Mid-Major conferences. Delaware also announced they’d be transitioning in 2025, joining Missouri State. The conference’s footprint now includes: Texas, Missouri, Delaware, and Florida (among others). You don’t see that kind of geographical structure among Mid-Major conferences due to travel reasons.
Throwing aside what seems like an odd move in hopes of making some larger amount of money from football, what does this mean for the Missouri Valley? The MVC has often been a stepping stone for schools and players alike, especially in basketball. Schools like Creighton, Wichita State, and Loyola Chicago have all left in the last 11 seasons. Nearly all of the players that finished on one of the All-MVC teams from last season have transferred onward to larger schools: Ben Humrichous (Evasville → Illinois), Cade Tyson (Belmont → North Carolina), Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Belmont → Maryland), Connor Hickman (Bradley → Cincinnati) and more.
The MVC is not a member of the FBS, which hurts for schools wanting to make the jump from FCS to FBS for football. Presumedly that’s why Missouri State did it and Wichita State did the same thing. They had an influx of cash from the Koch Brothers to start up their football program so they left for the American Athletic Conference. Now, there’s been rumors flying around for months that Illinois State might do the same thing and head to the MAC. This move from Missouri State has sparked a lot of speculation about the future of the Missouri Valley. What happens if you lose Illinois State, then next SIU or Bradley or Belmont or Drake. Belmont has been rumored to be a potential A10 candidate for a while. I don’t think Bradley, Drake, or Belmont leaves in the next couple of years, however, it is a future possibility.
Now the question comes, who do you fill Missouri State’s open spot with. Then what happens if another school leaves? I don’t believe the Missouri Valley would want to stay at 10 teams again, so you should assume that they would bring in one or two more schools to fill the spots. Here’s some potential candidates:
University of Missouri - Kansas City
Omaha
St. Thomas (MN)
Green Bay
Wright State
Northern Kentucky
Oral Roberts
Let me start here by saying, I have zero sources on the inside of this. This list above is pure speculation off previous conversations regarding teams that could’ve been added to the MVC in the past when they added UIC and Valpo. Now that we’ve gotten that cleared up, I need to be clear about one thing.
Kansas City and Omaha would be complete mistakes. These two schools in particular were deeply looked at during the last round of filling a spot for the MVC and my fear is with Missouri State leaving, the conference called…Missouri Valley Conference has no teams in Missouri. I would be shocked honestly if it wasn’t UMKC. Why do I feel so passionate about this?
The Missouri Valley Conference is in grave danger in my opinion. With college football running everything, not being the FBS is going to hurt retaining schools. It’s an elite Mid-Major basketball conference, but with the world of college sports at the moment, that doesn’t mean a whole lot. This next fill for the 12th spot in the conference has to be a splash. You already have two schools in the conference that struggle mightily in UIC and Valpo. Per UIC’s website, they had an average attendance of 1,954, which I’m going to be honest…I don’t know if that’s the true “attendance” because the majority of those games in Chicago were in an empty stadium. Valparaiso averaged just 1,478 a game, which is believable.
Some will argue that Evansville’s recent struggles doesn’t help the conference, but they are turning it around. They went 17-18 last season and were 5th in the MVC in attendance at 4,607 a game on average. UIC and Valpo are the two outliers that aren’t close in comparison to anyone else in terms of performance translating to attendance.
Last season, UMKC averaged just 1,130 people a game. The Roo’s have never had a 20+ win season and have never been to the NCAA Tournament. No offense to UMKC fans out there, but there’s no reason to add them to the Missouri Valley. Omaha averaged 2,079 a game, but their history isn’t much better than UMKC. They’ve never been to the NCAA Tournament and they’ve had just one 20+ win season. They’ve finished with less than 10 wins on the season 3 out of the last 4 years.
Neither of these teams provide much to the Missouri Valley where you already have two schools that struggle in UIC and Valpo. What’s the point of adding another. This is why I am advocating for an addition like: St. Thomas, Wright State, or Northern Kentucky.
Northern Kentucky is probably the most appealing here. Since transitioning to Division I in 2012, the Norse have had 6 20+ win seasons and 3 NCAA Tournament appearances. On the season they averaged 3,270 in attendance and in conference games that number rose to 3,457. It is a no brainer for them to join the Missouri Valley. They’d spark immediate success, they fit geographically, in which they actually would tap into a new market in the Cincinnati area, and they have a fan base that cares. Another positive? They don’t have a football team. It’s a perfect fit.
Wright State also would prove to be an appealing addition. Wright State has been to 2 NCAA Tournaments in the last 7 seasons, and they have finished with 20+ wins 12 times since 2007. Head Coach Scott Nagy actually just left the school to take the Head Coaching position at Southern Illinois. On the season, they averaged 4,067 a game in attendance and they led the Horizon League in conference game attendance, just slightly ahead of Northern Kentucky. Similar to Northern Kentucky, Wright State does not have a true football team, however they have a club team.
St. Thomas is a little bit of a flier pick here, but their upside is intriguing. The Tommies transitioned to Division I in 2021 and they haven’t disappointed. They finished 19-14 in 2022-2023 and 20-13 last season. Their attendance is the largest drawback here at just 1,307 a game. However, some things to keep in mind here is, they just transitioned to Division I from Division III, so they are still building up a culture and fanbase. If they continue to find success, especially in a better conference, that number should increase. Plus, their current arena can only hold roughly 1,800 people. They announced last season that they were going to build a brand new arena for basketball and hockey, you can read the announcement here. The belief was the arena was going to be complete in 2025, but they’ve been met with opposition from local residents, however, from the sounds of it, that shouldn’t be an issue. This project was led by a whopping $75 million donation from Lee and Peggy Anderson who already donated $60 million for a Student Center. This school has money and alumni willing to pour millions into the program, there’s no doubt it’ll have success.
I’ve listed these schools in order of my preference. Northern Kentucky would be a homerun, Wright State would be a solid pick up, and St. Thomas is the under-the-radar flier pick that could pay off in the long run. Regardless of who the Missouri Valley Conference selects, it has to be a vital piece to the puzzle.
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