Rising Conferences: Big South Edition
The Big South is on a rise this season and should be well represented in the postseason. What could a NCAA/NIT for the Big South look like?
The Big South is often regarded as a small conference, but this season so far has been a very competitive match-up for many of the teams. Longwood sits at the top with a strong 12-2 record, while High Point and Radford sit tied for second with records at 10-4, and Winthrop & UNC Asheville close behind at 8-6.
Currently, there are three teams with sub-150 Net Rankings in High Point, Longwood, and Radford. Winthrop & UNC Asheville both sit in the sub-200. On the opposite end of that, the conference is currently being bogged down by Charleston Southern with their current NET Ranking of 339. However, the highlight in the conference? Definitely Presbyterian who last year went 5-27 with a 352 NET Ranking to currently a 7-7 record with wins over Vanderbilt & The Citadel and a 290 NET Ranking.
Last season the Big South finished as the 24th conference in the country, which placed them in the bottom 10 conferences. This season, due to the performance of the teams mentioned above, they are currently ranked as the 17th best conference, putting them right in the middle of the pack surrounded by Conference USA, and close behind to the WAC & Big West.
What does a post-season truly look like for the Big South? Let’s face it, the NCAA committee will not reward them with a two-bid NCAA tournament appearance. It’ll be one of the top-5 teams between Longwood, Radford, High Point, Winthrop, and UNC Asheville, unless a surprise team emerges from the back half of the conference. Realistically, I project it to be between Radford & Longwood for who wins the auto-bid to March Madness.
However, what does an NIT or CBI look like? I believe that the Big South could be represented in all three tournaments this post-season. If I were projecting the results based off what I have seen so far, I’d say that either Longwood or Radford wins the conference tournament for the auto-bid, then the loser proceeds with a bid to the NIT. Then High Point or Winthrop collects a bid to the CBI.
The NIT has notoriously snubbed mid-majors in favor of .500 Power 5 schools and that trend will not change, especially with the recent changes to how they will give bids to schools. I’ll make a separate post about why these changes are just down-right horrendous for mid-majors, but in a summary:
Conferences that win their Conferences, but lose in the tournament will no longer get automatic bids to the NIT
At least two teams from the following conferences will be picked by the NIT:
ACC
Big East
Big 10
Big 12
Pac-12
SEC
Pretty much this means that hardly any mid-majors will get to compete in the NIT. Instead we will watch .500 Power 5 schools battle it out. Aside from that, I still believe that strong mid-majors will be represented in the NIT. For example, looking at the Big South, if Radford & Longwood are both sitting at 100 NET Rankings or lower, that should qualify as one of the at-large bids in the NIT. Especially a team like Radford that has some quality wins including at West Virginia & a chance to secure themselves on the board if they beat #18 Clemson tonight on 12/29.
Longwood would have the harder path in my opinion because their Strength of Schedule has them at a -11.42 on the KenPom. Their only loses came to NC Central & a four-point loss to St. Bonaventure. You could toss High Point into this conversation as they have the highest KenPom rating in the Big South, currently sitting at 137 with wins over Illinois State, Iona, & UNC Greensboro.
If the NIT fails to really support mid-majors, then the destiny for the Big South is most likely the auto-bid to the big dance and a bid to the CBI. That bid to the CBI would have to be a toss up between Radford, Longwood, & High Point, maybe Winthrop depending on how their conference play goes.
Regardless, the Big South has been one of the largest risers among mid-major conferences. Their Big South Wildcard appears on ESPNU between Radford and Longwood on January 11th is going to be must-watch TV.