NCAA Tournament: Top 5 Potential Upsets
Five first-round NCAA Tournament matchups most likely to produce upsets. Break down the stats before filling out your 2026 bracket.
The 2026 NCAA Tournament has been released with one of the least controversial brackets in recent memory. Traditionally, we’ll have a mid-major that was left out or a questionable power conference program that was given a bid to argue about, but this year is mostly satisfactory.
However, what will absolutely change this season is the number of upsets in the first weekend. Last year, there were a notable lack of upsets from mid-majors in the NCAA Tournament, sparking conversations around whether or not the idea of “Cinderella” is dead in March Madness. This year should prove that to not be the case.
As you fill out your bracket, it’s important to know who those lower seeds are that might be able to upset a higher seed. Let’s take a look at the five most likely matchups to produce an upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
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South Florida (11) vs Louisville (6)
The South Florida Bulls won the regular season title for the American and claimed the Tournament Championship spot as well, taking down Wichita State 70-55. They are 25-8 on the season and riding an eleven game winning streak as they head to the NCAA Tournament and sit at 47th in KenPom and 45th in the NET.
The Bulls are led by one of the best starting fives in all of college basketball. Their top three players include, Wes Enis who averages 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, while Izaiyah Nelson is averaging 15.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Joseph Pinion averages 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.1 steals.
As a team, they are 61st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 40th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 15th in tempo, 7th in offensive rebounding percentage, 47th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 25th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, and 27th in opponent steal percentage. They love the three-pointer as they are 93rd in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt, while they rely on ball movement as they are 47th in assist per field goal made.
Louisville is 23-10, 19th in KenPom, 19th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 25th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Ryan Conwell leads the team with 18.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals while Mikel Brown Jr. averages 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.2 steals.
Here’s what I love about the matchup. The Bulls are 25th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, in which the Cardinals at 9th in the country in two-point shooting percentage. Both teams love to run quick as Louisville is 62nd in tempo, and South Florida loves to maintain control of the ball. They are 27th in opponent steal percentage, 98th in non-steal turnover percentage, 85th in steal percentage. Louisville on the other hand is 147th in steal percentage, 156th in opponent steal percentage, and 180th in non-steal turnover percentage.
Where it could go wrong for South Florida is if they don’t block out well. Louisville is 95th in offensive rebounding percentage and they are 4th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. The Bulls are 248th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage and just 180th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. If the Cardinals start to rack up second-chance opportunities and pound South Florida from beyond the arc, it could get out of hand quickly.
A few weeks ago, we broke down why we thought that South Florida could be a Bracket Buster. Check it out below:
Utah State (9) vs Villanova (8)
While this isn’t a double-digit seed upset, it’s still a nine over an eight regardless. The Utah State Aggies are 28-6, 30th in KenPom, and 26th in the NET. They stumbled a little bit last in the regular season, losing three of their last five games, but they fired off in the Mountain West Tournament, drilling UNLV 80-60, Nevada 79-66, and San Diego State 73-62.
MJ Collins Jr and Mason Falslev are the two names to know. Collins Jr. is averaging 17.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 49.1% overall and 36.6% from beyond the arc. Falslev is averaging 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and two steals per game while shooting 52% overall and 41.1% from beyond the arc.
The Aggies are 28th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 45th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage, 108th in three-point shooting percentage, 11th in two-point shooting percentage, and 36th in assist to field goals made.
Villanova is 24-8, 33rd in KenPom, and 35th in the NET. They are 41st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 35th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They sit at 76th in effective field goal percentage, 70th in turnover percentage, 32nd in block percentage, and 24th in steal percentage.
Overall, these are two very evenly matched teams, thus the separation of just one seed. However, the metrics line up better for the Aggies across the board. Nova is 179th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 170th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, two areas where the Aggies thrive. Utah State is 331st in opponent average possession length, where as Villanova is 269th themselves, so Utah State is used to their style of play.
If Nova wants a chance to win this game, they are going to have to live and die by the three-pointer. They are 53rd in the nation in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt and 100th in three-point shooting percentage, where Utah State is just 178th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and just 236th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt. Essentially, the Aggies are open to letting teams shoot from deep and aren’t that great at defending the perimeter where as that’s how Villanova wins games. I’m not convinced that’s enough to overcome the other glaring holes that gives the advantage to Utah State.
High Point (12) vs Wisconsin (5)
Everyone loves a twelve-seed upset over a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and my pick this season is the High Point Panthers over Wisconsin. The Panthers are 30-4 on the season, riding a 14 game winning streak. They are 92nd in KenPom and 76th in the NET.
Terry Anderson, Rob Martin, and Camron Fletcher are the three names that you should familiarize yourselves with. Anderson is averaging 16 points, six rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 56.4% overall. Martin is averaging 15.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 42.2% overall. Fletcher is averaging 12.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals while shooting 54.8% overall and 36.4% from beyond the arc.
As a team, they are 66th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 161st in defensive adjusted efficiency. They love a quick offense as they are 49th in tempo and 24th in average possession length. They are 48th in effective field goal percentage, 5th in turnover percentage, 5th in opponent turnover percentage, 156th in three-point shooting percentage, 32nd in two-points shooting percentage, and 4th in steal percentage. Their overall defensive stance is a bit skewed as they are still 64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 2nd in opponent steal percentage, 89th in opponent blocking percentage, and 175th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
Wisconsin is 24-10, 22nd in KenPom, and 25th in the NET. They’ve been a bit up-and-down this season, but have huge wins over Michigan on the road, Illinois on the road, Michigan State at home, and Purdue on the road.
Why do I think this could be a reasonable upset? Wisconsin loves to shoot the three. They are 6th in the country in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt, 4th in three-point distribution (their total % of points), and 53rd in three-point shooting percentage. High Point does a strong job of defending the perimeter for an average defensive team. They are 64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 254th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt. On the defensive end, Wisconsin struggles with steals as they are just 288th in steal percentage compared to High Point sitting at 4th.
If Wisconsin wants to seal the deal, they need to limit High Point’s ability to get to the free throw line. The Badgers are 71st in opponent free throw attempt vs field goal attempt at 30.5, meanwhile the Panthers are 22nd in the country at 42.9. 22.5% of the Panthers points come from the free throws, which is 57th overall as Wisconsin sits at just 291st in opponent percentage of free throws at 17.8%.
This isn’t going to be a walk in the park for High Point, but if the Panthers can do all of the right things, this could be an electric Thursday matchup.
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Santa Clara (10) v Kentucky (7)
I was drooling when I saw this matchup revealed during Selection Sunday. The Broncos are 26-8 on the season, 35th in KenPom, and 40th in the NET. They have strong wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, Minnesota, and Saint Mary’s. They lost by just one point to Saint Louis, and had only one bad loss (a very bad one indeed) to Loyola Chicago.
Christian Hammond, Elijah Maji, and Allen Graves lead the Broncos. Hammond averages 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 49% overall and 40% from beyond the arc. Mahi is averaging 13.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 44.8% overall and 33.6% from three-point. Graves is averaging 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and two steals while shooting 51.7% overall and 41.6% from deep.
Santa Clara is 23rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 82nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, 54th in effective field goal percentage, 130th in three-point shooting percentage 39th in two-point shooting percentage, and 19th in offensive rebounding percentage. On the defensive end, they are 22nd in opponent turnover percentage, 117th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 133th in opponent block percentage, and 17th in opponent steal percentage.
Kentucky is 21-13, 28th in KenPom, and 28th in the NET. They finished just 2-5 in their final seven games of the regular season, but did pick up two wins over a struggling LSU squad 87-82 and Missouri 78-72 who also snuck their way into the NCAA Tournament before falling to Florida 71-63. Overall, they’ve been very underwhelming comparatively to how hyped up they were coming into the season with their roster construction and NIL budget.
Up-and-down their offensive statistics, Santa Clara has the advantage as Kentucky is 102nd in effective field goal percentage, 167th in three-point shooting percentage, 80th in two-point shooting percentage, and 75th in offensive rebounding percentage. They do hold an advantage on the defensive end a bit, however, the Broncos have a significant advantage over the Wildcats in turnovers. Kentucky is just 229th in opponent turnover percentage, compared to Santa Clara’s 22nd in the same metric.
This is going to be a very popular pick, and it should be. I will say, Santa Clara failed to beat Gonzaga in their three appearances, losing 89-77, 94-86, and 79-68. However, Kentucky is not Gonzaga, and if you just on the surface compare that Kentucky is the same-seed as Saint Mary’s who Santa Clara won the season series 2-1 against then you can help subside those concerns if you have any.
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Saint Louis (9) vs Georgia (8)
It looked like Saint Louis was well on their way to not being in the “potential upset” category as they were 24-1 on the season with just a one point loss against Stanford on a game winning shot. However, the Billikens struggled over the final few weeks, dropping games to Rhode Island, Dayton, George Mason, and Dayton again in the A-10 Tournament. They enter March Madness 28-5, 41st in KenPom, and 30th in the NET.
Robbie Avila is the star of the show, averaging 12.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists while shooting 50.6% overall and 41.6% from three-point. Trey Green and Dion Brown are both right behind Avila. Green is averaging 11.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 47.2% overall and 45.7% from three-point. Brown is averaging 11.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 60.6% overall and 40.4% from beyond the arc.
SLU is 51st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 42nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, while sitting at 21st in tempo and 4th in average possession length. They are 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage and just as good on the other end at 2nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. They are 2nd in three-point shooting percentage, 15th in two-point shooting percentage, 8th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 5th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
Georgia is 22-10, 32nd in KenPom, and 33rd in the NET. Things looked bleak for the Bulldogs, going just 1-5 over six games in between January and February, but they rebounded to finished 4-1 in the regular season with wins over Kentucky, Texas, and Alabama. They ended up falling to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament who went on a run to the SEC Semifinals.
Saint Louis dominates the majority of the metrics, as Georgia is just 170th in three-point shooting percentage, 169th in opponent three-point shooting percentage 28th in two-point shooting percentage, and 99th in opponent two-points shooting percentage. However, they are much better are creating/limiting turnovers and getting second chance opportunities. They are 48th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to Saint Louis at 161st. Georgia is 5th in non-steal turnover percentage, and SLU is just 173rd.
However, this is probably going to be the most popular 9>8 seed pick in the tournament. Saint Louis’ award if they beat Georgia? Most likely a date with Michigan…brutal.
What about UNI?
Mark my words, Penn is gonna be a bracket buster