Heat Check: Who's Hot, Who's Not
Saint Mary's, Akron, and Utah State are heating up while Loyola Chicago, Toledo, and Charleston cool down after opening week. Plus: teams to watch.
Opening week has come to a close!
It was an action packed opening week. We had multiple schools fall to non-division one teams, we had Mercyhurst travel to Loyola Chicago to dominate the Ramblers, Weber State nearly took down Utah on the road in overtime, Purdue had a Greg Kampe scare, and so much more.
As we enter week two, we are officially releasing our first set of Bracket Buster's’ Heat Check! The selected teams are picked based on a mix of results, analytics, and the infamous “eye” test. Let’s dive in!
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Heat Check
Heating Up
Saint Mary’s
11/3/25 KenPom: 55
11/10/25 KenPom: 41
Photo: Saint Mary’s Athletics
The Saint Mary’s Gales took care of business this week, taking down St. Thomas 84-58 and Chattanooga 87-66. The Gaels have been without their big man Harry Wessels, but Andrew McKeever has done a tremendous job holding down the position. Against Chattanooga, McKeever finished with 16 points and eight rebounds while shooting 7-8 from the floor.
Mikey Lewis and Paulius Murauskas have been done short of incredible through their first two games. Lewis is averaging 25.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 steals on 58.3% shooting overall and 61.5% from three-point. Murauskas is averaging 19.5 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and 1.5 steals while shooting 63.2% from the floor and 75% from beyond the arc.
Replacing Augustus Marčiulionis was going to be challenging, but sophomore Joshua Dent has done well through the first two games. He’s averaged six assists a game, compared to just one turnover. Against St. Thomas he finished with 18 points, six assists, three steals, and zero turnovers.
Looking at the week ahead, the Gaels take on Ohio on Tuesday, November 11th and North Texas on Friday, November 14th.
If you are interested in getting caught up on the Gaels, check out my roster review from the offseason below!
Akron
11/3/25 KenPom: 94
11/10/25 KenPom: 73
Well, I’m sure we are all surprised, but the Akron Zips are an offensive juggernaut once again. The Zips took down James Madison 85-71 and Princeton by a whopping 104-69 score. The team as a whole is shooting 47% from the floor and 37.1% from three-point which is 102nd in the country. Their 113.4 offensive rating is 57th.
While the offense has looked incredible, what’s shocking is their defense. Last season, they finished 71st in offensive efficiency, but just 182nd with their 107.1 defensive efficiency. Through two games, they are ranked 100th in the country with their 102.2 defensive efficiency. The Zips racked up 11 steals against Princeton, ten steals against James Madison, and 6 blocks as well against the Dukes. Throttling the Sun Belt preseason favorites by what could have been more than 14 points was impressive.
The lineup has been a traditional John Groce lineup with nine players averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game. Amani Lyles is averaging 19 points with seven rebounds, 1.5 steals, and two blocks. Tavari Johnson is averaging 17.5 points with 4.5 assists and 1.5 steals.
Looking at the week ahead, they have a matchup against Division II Penn State Shenango, then they travel to Mackey Arena where they’ll take on the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue had a scare against Oakland, but I think Akron could truly give them a run for their money this week.
If you are interested in getting caught up on the Zips, check out my roster review from the offseason below!
Utah State
11/3/25 KenPom: 55
11/10/25 KenPom: 38
Utah State picked up a huge win for their resume, and yes, you can start building a resume the first week of the season by taking down VCU 80-77. The Aggies racked up 14 steals while dishing out 18 assists to fend off a near 18 point comeback from the Rams.
MJ Collins Jr. transferred in from Vanderbilt, and he’s already making a large contribution. Through two games, he is averaging 22.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. Mason Falslev is averaging 13.5 points, with 4.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals. Drake Allen is averaging nine assists and four steals. Garry Clark is averaging 12.5 rebounds. Now keep in mind, a lot of these stats were padded by a 110-54 win over Westminster on Monday. However, the performance against VCU was an important one.
Looking ahead, the Aggies take on Weber State who just took Utah to overtime this weekend, and UTEP. The Mountain West has gotten off to a rough start, so it needs Utah State and San Diego State to take care of business.
SIUE
11/3/25 KenPom: 230
11/10/25 KenPom: 169
SIUE is coming off their best season since transitioning to division one and their first NCAA Tournament appearance. The Cougars took down East West 119-50 to open the season, but they absolutely dominated UT San Antonio 77-60 as the most notable game. As a result, they made the fifth highest jump in KenPom by leaping 61 spots to 169. Overall, it was an incredible week for the Ohio Valley as they had three of the 15 highest jumps per KenPom.
Ring Malith is leading the team while averaging 18 points with 7.5 rebounds. Against UTSA, he finished with 20 points and nine rebounds while shooting 8-12 from the floor. Jo Valrie racked up ten boards off the bench. As a team, they shot 48.3% and 42.9% from three-point. Most notably was their defensive presence. They held the Roadrunners to just 28.2% shooting overall and 24.1% from beyond the arc.
The Cougars take on a couple of Missouri Valley Conference schools in Indiana State and Drake that could absolute fall victim to SIUE. If SIUE comes out of this week 4-0, we are going to have to start a legitimate conversation about what Brian Barone is building in Edwardsville.
Liberty
11/3/25 KenPom: 100
11/10/25 KenPom: 79
It couldn’t have been a better week for the Liberty Flames. They finished 3-0 with dominating wins over Charleston 90-75 and FAU 88-68. The Flames are emerging as an offensive juggernaut outside the power conference ranks.
Against Charleston, they shot 54.2% overall and 48.3% from beyond the arc on 29 attempts. They followed up their performance while shooting 55.2% overall and 46.4% from three-point on 28 attempts against FAU.
Kaden Metheny had 18 points against the Cougars, then 28 against the Owls. He combined for 17/26 overall and 10/18 from three-point. Brett Decker Jr. has been incredible as well while averaging 23 points through the first three games of the season.
The Flames don’t play again until November 17th against a non-division one opponent. My only fear with the team is the overall lack of size, but they’ll have a couple of key opportunities against NC State and Dayton in the non-conference slate to continue to prove their ceiling.
St. Bonaventure
11/3/25 KenPom: 122
11/10/25 KenPom: 111
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are coming off a 2-0 week with a huge 69-63 win over Bradley on opening day, and a dominating performance against Canisius 89-70. They are now knocking on the door of top 100 KenPom status as they sit at 111th.
Gardner-Webb transfer Darryl Simmons hasn’t missed a step while making the jump to the Atlantic-10. He’s averaged 18 points with four rebounds, four assists, and two steals per game through their first week. He was lighting up Bradley on Monday while shooting 5-11 from 3pt. Frank Mitchell has been a menace down low as he is averaging 16 points and ten rebounds. Cayden Charles made the jump to division one and now he is averaging 13.5 points with six rebounds, and Joe Grahovac has been as advertised with 11.5 points, six rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game.
The Bonnies will take on Siena and a Youngstown State team that took down Grand Canyon on the road this week. If they keep this up, all eyes will be on November 25th when they will battle against North Carolina which could be a huge resume building game.
If you are interested in getting caught up on the Bonnies, check out my roster review from the offseason below!
Cooling Down
Loyola Chicago
11/3/25 KenPom: 99
11/10/25 KenPom: 137
The Ramblers had a tough week. It started off with Deywilk Tavarez draining a buzzer beater three to walk away with a 91-88 win over Cleveland State. This came after the Ramblers held a ten point lead with less than seven minutes to go.
Then, Mercyhurst came to town and dominated Loyola Chicago the entire game and finished 73-65. They shot just 37.7% overall and 30.8% from beyond the arc. Justin Moore had 25 of the Ramblers 65 points. The rest of the team shot 31.5% and 25% from three-point.
It didn’t get any better on Sunday when they fell to North Texas 64-62 on a buzzer beater from Dylan Arnett after an electric back-and-forth finish. This was heartbreaking as the Ramblers managed to claw their way back into the game after being down 34-20 at halftime. That marked back-to-back games where they had less than 30 points by the halfway mark.
The offense for the Ramblers is mightily struggling, and their schedule doesn’t get any easier. They’ll take on Wichita State on the road and Colorado State at home this week.
Toledo
11/3/25 KenPom: 166
11/10/25 KenPom: 214
The Toledo Rockets are off to an 0-2 start after dropping to South Alabama 76-74 and Marshall 85-73. They’ve plummeted 48 spots in KenPom which is the sixth largest drop from opening day.
The Rockets defensive ratings are rough:
437th in defensive efficiency
324th in opponent effective field goal percentage
285th in opponent 3pt percentage
316th in opponent 2pt percentage
Sean Craig is averaging eight rebounds through the first two games, but no one else is averaging more than 3.5. They are tied for 346th in the country in rebounds per game so far.
Offensively, they’ve looked solid as they are shooting a strong 40.4% from three-point which is 57th in the country. Sonny Wilson is averaged 15.5 points, Kyler Vanderjagt is averaging 13.5 points, and Leroy Blyden Jr. is averaging 13.5 points with five assists as a freshman.
They’ll look to stop the bleeding against Wright State and Detroit Mercury this week.
Charleston
11/3/25 KenPom: 132
11/10/25 KenPom: 174
Not only is Charleston 1-2 coming off their first week, but they lost two games by 15 points or more. They fell to Liberty 90-75 and Florida Atlantic 94-77.
Freshman Martin Kalu has looked strong, especially with 22 points and seven rebounds against Liberty, but shot just 3-10 against FAU. Jlynn Counter had 8 points against Liberty, but 22 against FAU. Chol Machot had 18 points and nine rebounds against Liberty, but just eight points and three boards against FAU. See the trend? There was no consistent in who was producing on the floor between either games.
As a team, they are getting annihilated on the defensive end. They currently sit at 325th in defensive efficiency, 315th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 313th in opponent three-point shooting, and so on.
Chris Mack has plenty of time to correct things for the Cougars, but there is no doubt that this has been a disappointing start for a team that on paper looked like they could emerge as a Bracket Buster themselves come March. They’ll look to get back on track against South Carolina state this week on Friday.
Drake
11/3/25 KenPom: 123
11/10/25 KenPom: 139
In terms of metrics, Drake didn’t take nearly as large of a punch mostly due to losing to Robert Morris by just two points in overtime. However, what I’m more concerned about is the “eye” test of this Drake Bulldogs team. The Bulldogs took down Northern Arizona 77-71 on Monday, but fell to Robert Morris 81-79 at home.
Loyola Chicago transfer Jalen Quinn has looked phenomenal. He is averaged 20 points, three rebounds, 2.5 assists, and one steal per game through his first two. Okku Federiko is dominating with 15 points and 11.5 rebounds with two blocks per game. Wilguens Jr. Exacte has played well as he is averaging 13.5 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals per game.
On paper, their team metrics look solid, however, they had to pull out a comeback to take down Northern Arizona and couldn’t close out against Robert Morris, which led to their defeat. I think that Eric Henderson will get things figured out with the Bulldogs, but there is some work to do.
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Ones to Watch
Mercyhurst
11/3/25 KenPom: 359
11/10/25 KenPom: 334
The Mercyhurst Lakers transitioned to the division one ranks last season while joining the NEC. They kicked off their season with a 70-47 loss to Northwestern, however, they pulled off an incredible upset on the road over Loyola Chicago in game two.
They took down the Ramblers 73-65 in a dominate performance that could have been an even larger gap. Bernie Blunt III finished with 27 points, 3 rebounds, and one assist, while Qadir Martin and Mykolas Ivanauskas had four offensive rebounds a piece and 17 total rebounds between the two. They held the Ramblers to just 37.7% shooting overall and 30.8% from beyond the arc.
The Lakers will take on Canisius and Morgan State this coming week.
UT Martin
11/3/25 KenPom: 331
11/10/25 KenPom: 287
The UT Martin Skyhawks kicked off their season with a strong 86-81 victory on the road over UNLV. Head coach Jeremy Shulman has done a tremendous job building a roster full of international players that will allow this team to defy the odds this season.
Andrija Bukumirovic finished with 23 points, four rebounds, one assist, and two steals on 8-10 shooting. Dragos Lungu finished with 23 points, five rebounds, two assists, and one steal. I actually wrote about Lungu in the summer of 2024 before he joined San Diego as a freshman. He looked incredible while playing in the FIBA EuroBasket Tournament, so I’m glad to see him taking advantage of the expanded opportunity.
The Skyhawks are 2-0 coming out of opening week, and they’ve jumped 44 spots in KenPom to 287th. They’ll take on Bradley on the road this week.
Around the College Basketball World
Here are some interesting headlines and articles I read this week around college basketball: