Heat Check Report: Who's Peaking in the Final Weeks?
College basketball Heat Check with 4 weeks until Selection Sunday: Duquesne surges, High Point vs Winthrop showdown looms, George Mason stumbles.
It’s hard to believe that Selection Sunday is less than four weeks away, but now all eyes are on college basketball.
This week, we’ve had a ton of action. Saint Louis and Miami both kept their incredible seasons going, but we are seeing some middle of the pack teams starting to step up when it matters most, not only helping themselves, but putting pressure on those at the top. UIC drilled Illinois State as they are now 10-6 in the MVC, Northern Iowa is sneaking up in the MVC as well at 9-7, Cal State Northridge is on a five-game winning streak at 9-5 in the Big West, and Robert Morris has won four in a row to move to third in the Horizon League.
For these traditional one-bid leagues, it all comes down to the conference tournaments to have a shot at punching their tickets to the big dance. We’ve seen numerous upsets happen over the years in these tournaments, so as the top dog it’s more important than ever to build themselves cushion and not let off the pedal one bit.
Let’s take a look at who’s heating up, cooling off, and on fire coming out of last week in this week’s Heat Check Report!
Heating Up
Duquesne
02/09/26 KenPom: 114th
02/16/26 KenPom: 109th
Duquesne started just 3-5 in the Atlantic-10, but they’ve now won four games in a row including against George Mason the road, George Washington at home, and St. Bonaventure on the road who has been playing well.
During this four-game winning streak, they’ve bounced back to 15-10 overall and 7-5 in the A-10. In conference, they’ve yet to be blown out, kicking up against Dayton by six, Saint Louis by four, and St. Bonaventure by eight. They fell apart against Saint Joseph’s in overtime, losing 97-90, and their largest loss was to VCU 93-80.
They are a fairly equal team on the metrics, sitting at 110th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 124th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Dukes are 62nd in effective field goal percentage, 118th in three-point shooting percentage, and 53rd in two-point shooting percentage.
They’ve done an incredible job on the offensive end these last couple of weeks. Against Rhode Island, they shot 44% from deep on 27 attempts with 15 assists and 20-22 from the free throw line. Against the Patriots, they shot 44% overall, but limited themselves to just nine turnovers. Against George Washington, they shot 48% with just four turnovers compared to 12 assists. Then against the Bonnies, they shot 44% and had just six turnovers to 13 assists. When you are able to dish out the ball and limit turnovers, it’s a huge key to winning consistently.
Tarence Guinyard has been hot, averaging 19.7 points, four rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 steals in three out of the four games while missing the George Mason game. On the season, he’s averaging 16.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 48.1% overall and 38.7% from beyond the arc. His 61.3% true shooting percentage is 201st in the country while his 30.9 assist rate is 79th.
The Dukes have a bit of a gauntlet to finish the season, but this week they have a great opportunity against La Salle at home, then Dayton on the road. While all eyes are on Saint Louis and VCU right now, the Dukes have proven they can be a sneaky team. Finishing the season strong would put them on the map and potentially punch their ticket to the NIT.
Utah Tech
02/09/26 KenPom: 196th
02/16/26 KenPom: 178th
Utah Tech has certainly rebounded over the last month as they are in the middle of a six-game winning streak after starting out just 10-11 and 3-4 in the WAC.
Last week, they took down Utah Valley 81-77 for their best win to date and Cal Baptist 70-65. The week prior, they beat UT Arlington 87-84 in double-overtime, so they have now won three games in a row against KenPom teams ranked 168th, 87th, and 120th.
They sit at 159th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 212th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 123rd in effective field goal percentage vs 125th in opponent effective field goal percentage, while also 132nd in three-point shooting percentage, 130th in two-point shooting percentage, and 10th in opponent three-point shooting percentage.
Their metrics aren’t eye-popping, but they do one thing extremely well. They are 35th in the country in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt while 10th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. They force their opponents to take contested shots from outside where they have a lockdown perimeter defense. During this six-game winning streak, opponents have scored more than 70 just three times.
Ethan Potter has been dominating as he is averaging 15.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 58.4% overall from the floor. His 125 offensive rating is 175th in the nation, while his 61.4% true shooting percentage is 19t5th, his 18.8% defensive rebounding percentage is 262nd.
They’ve got a tough schedule to close out over the next three weeks, but this week they’ll face the start of the test against UT Arlington and Tarleton State both on the road.
Texas State
02/09/26 KenPom: 259th
02/16/26 KenPom: 243rd
The Texas State Bobcats have been playing excellent basketball as of late. After sitting at just 11-11 and 4-6 in the Sun Belt, they have fired off a six-game winning streak while taking down Marshall 72-68 and Troy 74-62. This week, they knocked off Troy and Louisiana Monroe 95-84.
They’re metrics aren’t mind blowing at just 271st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 200th in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, they win by playing old-school basketball. They are 237th in adjusted tempo, 223rd in two-point shooting percentage, and 365th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. They are 3rd in the country in two-point percentage of their total points scored, compared to 364th from three-pointers. Essentially…they take no threes and it works. Against Troy, they were just 2-9 from deep, but 26-38 from inside the arc. Then against Louisiana Monroe this week, they were a decent 5-11 from three-point, but they were 36-53 from inside.
Freshman DJ Hall has been incredible. The 6’7 forward is averaging 15 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 55.4% overall. He is 222nd in the country with a 61% true-shooting percentage, and 108th with a 21.7% defensive rebounding percentage. Notably, he does a great job at getting to the line as well as he has a 43.2 free throw rate in which he converts at a high rate with an 80.9% free throw shooting percentage which is in the top-350.
This team is playing very well and they have two more huge opportunities to prove they are the real deal against South Alabama this week on the road and App State at home on February 27th.
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On Fire
High Point
02/09/26 KenPom: 97th
02/16/26 KenPom: 90th
High Point’s strong season continued this week as they took down USC Upstate 95-70 and Gardner Webb 112-87 both on the road. They are now 24-4 overall and 12-1 in the Big South while in the midst of an eight game winning streak.
The Panthers have yet to have a bad loss as their four came against UAB, Southern Illinois, App State in overtime, and Winthrop on the road. They’ll battle against fellow top-dog in the Big South Winthrop again this upcoming Saturday as High Point has just three games remaining in conference.
Their offense continues to carry them as they are 56th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 42nd in effective field goal percentage, 27th in two-point shooting percentage, and 5th in turnover percentage. They can do it on the other end as well though as they are 4th in opponent turnover percentage and first in the country in opponent steal percentage. They do a great job of maintaining ball control, pace of the game, and getting the open shot.
They’ll look to stay hot against UNC Asheville and Winthrop both at home this week.
Winthrop
02/09/26 KenPom: 125th
02/16/26 KenPom: 132nd
As we mentioned above, Winthrop has a date with High Point next Saturday which is going to be a must-watch game. While High Point has won eight games in a row, Winthrop has won eleven.
This week, they took down Gardner Webb 103-85 in their lone game. They currently sit at 91st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 42nd in turnover percentage, 15th in steal percentage, 151st in three-point shooting percentage, and 222nd in two-point shooting percentage.
They don’t run a high-octane offense like High Point, but they aren’t far behind at 101st in adjusted tempo. The difference is, they live and die by the three. Winthrop is 61st in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts while High Point is just 121st. The Eagles are slightly behind in three-point shooting vs High Point, however, since they take more in volume, it practically evens out.
During this stretch, they’ve scored less than 80 points in just four games, while breaking 90+ twice and 100 points from this past week. As we round out the final two weeks of the regular season for the Big South, the battle between these two teams is going to be incredible to watch.
VCU
02/09/26 KenPom: 46th
02/16/26 KenPom: 46th
After starting off just 2-2 in the Atlantic-10, VCU has fired off a nine game winning streak. This past week, they took down La Salle 77-68 and Richmond 78-67 both on the road.
During this stretch, they have swept Richmond, drilled Dayton, and handled the majority of their opponents with ease. They are 48th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 64th in defensive adjusted efficiency. In the NET, they are currently ranked X.
The Atlantic-10 has once again cannibalized itself, however, VCU still has a chance to earn the conference two bids to March Madness. They’ll close out the season with two road games against Saint Louis and Dayton, then three homes games against George Washington, Fordham, and George Mason. If they can win four out of five, dropping just the game to Saint Louis, then they’ll be 24-7, 15-3 in conference and somewhere in the 30’s of KenPom. It’ll be close, but I think they can squeeze out a bid as long as they do well in the Atlantic-10 tournament.
They have a great blend of metrics that could bode well or a win or two in the NCAA Tournament. They are 56th in effective field goal percentage, 64th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 50th in three-point shooting, 76th in two-point shooting, 50th in opponent two-point shooting, and 77th in adjusted tempo.
Cooling Off
George Mason
02/09/26 KenPom: 79th
02/16/26 KenPom: 95th
After starting off the season 20-2 and 8-1 in the Atlantic 10, it’s been a cold couple of weeks for the Patriots. They are just 1-3 in their last four games, dropping losses to Duquesne 71-65, Richmond 82-70, and George Washington 72-53 while picking up a 60-52 win against Saint Joseph’s.
The three-ball is currently holding the Patriots back. In those three losses, the best they shot was 39% and they fell to 35% and 24% against George Washington and Richmond. Turnovers have also been a problem as they had nine assists to 15 turnovers against Richmond and 13 assists to 17 turnovers against Duquesne.
The Patriots are still 21-5 and 9-4 in the Atlantic Ten, but they’ve sealed their chances at a potential at-large bid, leaving VCU as the last team aside from Saint Louis with any chance to earn a second bid from the conference.
They’ll look to attempt to bounce back against a Dayton team that’s also been struggling on Wednesday.
Troy
02/09/26 KenPom: 124th
02/16/26 KenPom: 143rd
Troy has been one of the most up-and-down teams in all of college basketball this season. From beating San Diego State, to winning ten out of eleven, to now just winning two out of their last six, but beating Akron 79-69. They have two wins against top-70 KenPom teams, but four losses to sub-220 KenPom teams. Wild.
This week, they fell to Texas State 74-62 and Southern Mississippi 69-65. Their other two losses during this stretch were to James Madison 73-64 and App State 66-44, while they took down Georgia State 74-63 and Akron as I mentioned.
Right now, scoring points is a challenge. This is a team that has scored 83+ points in 14 of their 27 games this season. During this cold stretch, they’ve yet to score 80 and they’ve scored 65 or less four times. This week, they shot just 27% from deep against Southern Mississippi and just 36% overall against Texas State. Similar to George Mason, turnovers have been a problem as well as the Trojans had 15 turnovers to just 9 assists against the Bobcats and 15 turnovers against the Golden Eagles.
They’ll look to right the ship this week against Louisiana Monroe and South Alabama both on the road.
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One to Watch
UMBC
02/09/26 KenPom: 260th
02/16/26 KenPom: 236th
The UMBC Retrievers have quietly put together a strong season in the America East. They sit at 16-8 overall and 9-2 in conference while winning four in a row and seven of their last eight.
While they aren’t in particularly dominant in one single category, they are efficient at maintaining control of the ball and with their shot selection. They sit at 101st in effective field goal percentage, 35th in turnover percentage, 152nd in three-point shooting percentage, 90th in two-point shooting percentage and 24th in blocking percentage.
The Retrievers have four players averaging 10+ points per game, with Jah’Likai King leading the way with 13.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game on average while shooting 40.6% overall and 26.9% from deep. Ace Valentine has been a facilitator as the 6’3 junior is averaging 11.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists compared to just 1.3 turnovers.
UMBC will look to stay hot against Vermont and UAlbany this week.