Heat Check Report: Who's Peaking at the Right Time?
College basketball Heat Check Report as regular season is closing: Valparaiso surges in MVC, Wichita State heats up, Eastern Washington's comeback.
Folks, we are entering the final week of the regular season for some conferences. This time next week, we’ll be highlighting the kickoff of conference tournaments like Arch Madness and the Ohio Valley Conference as others wrap up the final games of the regular season.
This week, we saw the race for the Ohio Valley heat up as we have a three-way tie for first, while Navy, Long Island, Belmont, East Tennessee State, North Dakota State, Portland State, Austin Peay, High Point, Liberty, Wright State, and Merrimack all clinched the regular season title for their respective conferences.
I feel like we are going to see some upsets in March Madness this season as last year we lacked that element. With that said, let's dive into who’s heating up, who’s hot, and who’s cooling off as you prepare to figure out what teams you might be picking as a Bracket Buster.
Heating Up
Valparaiso
02/16/26 KenPom: 158th
02/23/26 KenPom: 145th
Watch out, the Valparaiso Beacons are heating up! The Beacons have won three games in a row and five out of their last six games including two solid wins against Bradley 79-72 and UIC on the road 71-67 this week. Valpo has already surpassed their most wins in conference since joining the Missouri Valley Conference and they close out against Drake who is ice cold and Evansville who has just four wins against Division I opponents. They are favored to win both games which would put them at 18-13 on the season and 12-8 in the MVC heading into Arch Madness.
Looking back at their wins in conference, they’ve also taken down Northern Iowa while sweeping UIC and picking up a win against Illinois State. They’ve played Murray State close, losing 85-79, and lost twice to Belmont by just a combined five points. They’ve shown that they can easily compete with anyone in the conference and shouldn’t be overlooked in the always chaotic Arch Madness.
Over the course of the season, they’ve been driven by their defense which during this last stretch of six games has held opponents to 76 points or less in their five wins. They sit at 125th in defensive adjusted efficiency per KenPom and 183rd in offensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their metrics shape up:
Offensive:
331st in effective field goal percentage
102nd in turnover percentage
105th in offensive rebounding percentage
86th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt
229th in three-point shooting
342nd in two-point shooting
79th in block percentage
6th in steal percentage
Defensive:
122nd in opponent effective field goal percentage
162nd in opponent turnover percentage
67th in opponent three-point shooting
196th in opponent two-point shooting
54th in opponent free throw percentage
107th in opponent block percentage
61st in opponent non-steal turnover percentage
112th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt
71st in opponent assist per field goal made
Putting these metrics together, you’ll see that they offensively aren’t a great shooting team. However, they use their defense to apply pressure. They are 308th in tempo, so playing fast doesn’t fit into their style. They play excellent defense on the perimeter, so they force opponents to take contested shots from outside, limiting their ability to get into the paint.
Owen Dease has been one of the most consistent pieces for Valpo this season. He’s averaging 13.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.2 assists while shooting 46.3% overall and 40.7% from three-point. He is 222nd in the country in three-point shooting and 138th in free throw shooting percentage.
Freshman JT Pettigrew has been very underrated as he is averaging 11.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 37.4%. His 27% possession usage rate is 183rd, while his 10.4% offensive rebounding percentage is 209th in the nation. He is 108th in fouls drawn per game at 5.9 which translates into a strong 53.6 free throw rate which is 155th.
Wichita State
02/16/26 KenPom: 92nd
02/23/26 KenPom: 93rd
Shockers fans have been on a rollercoaster this season. Wichita State started off 4-1, then fell to 4-4. They moved to 9-5, then fell to 10-8. Now, they are 18-10, 10-5 in the American and winners of eight out of their last ten games. This week, they took down East Carolina 92-89 in double-overtime and Temple 69-57 at home after they beat a tough Tulsa team 81-77 the Saturday prior.
The Shockers are 133rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 64th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 37th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 26th in opponent three-point shooting, 60th in opponent two-point shooting, and 57th in free throw percentage.
Their defense assists them mightily on the offensive end as they are 66th in turnover percentage, 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, 93rd in block percentage, 67th in steal percentage, and 106th in non-steal turnover percentage. They sit at 292nd three-point attempt vs field goal attempts vs 27th on the opponent end. Then they are 2511st in assist per field goals made vs 13rd on the opponent end. Essentially, they are living and dying by their defense.
On the offensive end, Kenyon Giles has been the engine throughout the entire season. Giles is averaging 19.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.7 steals while shooting 42.9% overall and 38.4% from beyond the arc. He features a 120.5 offensive rating which is 370th while he is taking 29.8% of the Shockers’ shots when he is on the court which is 92st.
On the defensive end, Will Berg has been a menace. He is averaging 8.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 52.6% overall. His 16.9% offensive rebounding percentage is 10th best in the country, while his 22.4% defensive rebounding percentage is 82nd. His 6.4% block percentage is 104th.
The Shockers will travel to Memphis this week and UTSA before they wrap up their season next week against FAU at home.
Eastern Washington
02/16/26 KenPom: 195th
02/23/26 KenPom: 172nd
Eastern Washington has put together one of the best comeback stories in college basketball this season. After starting just 5-17 the Eagles have now won six games in a row in the Big Sky as they sit at 11-17 overall and 9-6 in conference, just three games out of first place. During this stretch, they have been beating good teams. They took down Montana 82-74, Montana State 72-71, and first-place Portland state this past week 67-55.
There was no doubt that offensively they could win games, but their defense has been questionable all season up until this winning streak. During this stretch, they’ve allowed more than 75 points just once and even held Weber State to 66 and Portland State to 55. Despite this, their defensive adjusted efficiency is still 254th, highlighting their early season struggles.
On the offensive end, they are 112th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 108th in effective field goal percentage, 54th in three-point shooting percentage, 91st in free throw shooting percentage, and 56th in block percentage.
Isaiah Moses has been a facilitator on offense all year. He is averaging 17.8 points, three rebounds and four assists while shooting 45.2% overall and 43.6% from beyond the arc. Against Portland State and Sacramento State last week he averaged 24 points, six assists, 6.5 rebounds, and two steals per game. At one point, he had five 20+ point games in a row and he’s cracked 30 points twice. His 23.2 assist rate is 280th in the country, which he is 1st in free throw shooting percentage at a ridiculous 94.3% and he’s 91st in three-point shooting percentage. He’s not a free throw merchant either as he’s drawing less than five fouls per game. He’s earning his trips to the line the right way.
The Eagles will look to close out the season strong against Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona this week, then Idaho the following Monday. KenPom has been projected to win all three games which would put them at 14-17 and 12-6 in the Big Sky.
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On Fire
South Florida
02/16/26 KenPom: 60th
02/23/26 KenPom: 55th
South Florida continued their strong season this week, picking up an 83-81 overtime win over FAU on the road and rolling past Memphis 87-66 at home. The Bulls have won five games in a row and sit at 19-8 on the season, 11-3 in the American, and well on their way to clinching the title. They are 1.5 games ahead of Wichita State who has also caught fire, and Tulsa. With four games remaining, South Florida takes on Rice & Memphis on the road while Tulane and Charlotte come to town. KenPom has South Florida favored in each of these last four games.
Izaiyah Nelson is officially averaging a double-double as he sits at 16 points and 10 rebounds on average. This week, he had 17 points, 15 rebounds, four blocks and two steals against Memphis, and nine points with ten rebounds against FAU. His incredible season continues.
Wes Enis has come on strong over the last month as well. Over his last eight games, he’s averaging 20 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals .His three-point shooting has stepped up as he is shooting 39% from beyond the arc during this stretch.
This team has the makeup to be dangerous in the NCAA Tournament if they are able to punch their ticket. Check out why I think South Florida could be a Bracket Buster below!
Merrimack
02/16/26 KenPom: 163rd
02/23/26 KenPom: 166th
Merrimack has won eight games in a row and just clinched the MAAC title yesterday after a fantastic 88-86 double-overtime thriller over Iona. They are 20-9 and 16-2 in conference after taking down Siena 79-72 in overtime this week.
The Warriors currently are sitting in their highest KenPom ranking since transitioning to Division I and have the metrics to support a potential sleeper pick conversation if they continue to close out the year strongly. This week they’ll take on Canisius and Niagara in what should be two more wins, leaving them at 22-9 on the season and 18-2 while cruising through the MAAC.
They are doing it on both ends of the court as they rank 195th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 139th in defensive adjusted efficiency. In particular, they have an incredible set of defensive metrics. They rank 19th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 10th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 46th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, 25th in opponent block percentage, 32nd in opponent turnover percentage, and 19th in opponent steal percentage.
They’ll probably line up as a 16-seed, however they should be the top 16 seeded team as of right now and could potentially sneak their way into the last 15-seed spot. If so, I’m saying it now…they could be a fun pick depending on who they matchup against. At the very least, it could be a fun battle similar to Robert Morris last season.
Other Teams
Miami ~ The RedHawks magical journey continued this week as they took down UMass 86-77 on the road and Bowling Green 91-77 at home. The RedHawks are now 27-0 on the season with just four games remaining, including three road games. This week, they’ll take on Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan both on the road.
High Point ~ The Panthers picked up a huge win over Winthrop at home 89-87. The Eagles had been nipping at High Point’s heels, but now High Point is on cruise control as they’ve won the regular season title of the Big South. They are 26-4 overall and 14-1 in conference with their only loss coming from Winthrop on the road 92-75.
Navy ~ The Midshipmen clinched their first Patriot League Title in over 20 years this week after dominating Lehigh 72-49. They also took down Army 81-63 as their dominating run continues. Navy is now 23-6 on the season and 15-1 in conference. They’ll close out the regular season against Loyola MD on the road and Colgate at home.
Stephen F. Austin ~ The Lumberjacks extended their winning streak to 13 games this week, taking down Texas A&M - Corpus Christi on the road 78-68 and Nicholls at home 81-78. Stephen F. Austin is now 25-3 and 18-1 in the Southland Conference with a two-game lead over the McNeese Cowboys. With three games remaining, they’ll look to clinch the title this week as they take on New Orleans at home and Houston Christian on the road.
Northern Colorado ~ Northern Colorado’s resurgence continued this week, taking down Northern Arizona 78-77 at home as they extending their winning streak to seven games. They are now back to over .500 in the Big Sky as they sit at 18-10 overall and 8-7 in the conference. They’ll face a hot Eastern Washington squad on the road and Idaho on the road this week in a true test to see if they can keep the momentum going.
Austin Peay ~ The Governors clinched the Atlantic Sun Title this weekend for the first time since joining the conference. They extended their winning streak to 10-games as they beat North Florida on the road 77-76 off a wild game winning shot and Jacksonville on the road 65-61. They are now 21-6 and 15-1 and continue to pass the eye test. Good teams find ways to win games that they don’t play their best and they did that twice this week. They’ll close out the regular season against Central Arkansas at home and Bellarmine on the road this week.
Cooling Down
Temple
02/16/26 KenPom: 161st
02/23/26 KenPom: 169th
The Temple Owls have fallen on hard times, losing four in a row after sitting at 15-8 on the season and 7-3 in the American. Over the stretch, they have lose to Tulane 77-66, North Texas 65-62, UAB 76-71, and Wichita State 69-57.
Offensively, they’ve fallen apart. They weren’t a great defensive team, but now that the offense has gotten cold, it’s exposed their weakness on the defensive end making it difficult to survive the cold stretch. Against Tulane, they shot just 24% from deep, against North Texas they choked at the free throw line shooting just 9-17, against UAB they shot just 1-15 from deep, then against Wichita State they shot just 5-13 from deep and 15-42 from inside the arc. Whether it’s shooting from three-point, inside, or at the line, it’s been a struggle.
Sitting at four games out of first place with just four games to go in the regular season, they are going to need to focus on closing out the season strong as they head to the conference tournament. They don’t have a walk in the park schedule either, playing FAU and Tulsa on the road while Rice and Tulane visit.
Oakland
02/16/26 KenPom: 152nd
02/23/26 KenPom: 158th
The Oakland Golden Grizzles started off on fire in the Horizon League, jumping out to a 10-3 record, but they’ve cooled off now after they just snapped a four-game losing streak against Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. During the stretch, they’ve fallen to Cleveland State 91-78, Youngstown State 86-82, Robert Morris 93-69, and Green Bay 73-68.
They’ve fallen quiet from beyond the arc, shooting just 24% against Cleveland State, 31% against Robert Morris, and 20% against Green Bay. Defensively, this has been the worst stretch of the entire season, giving up 86+ in three of the four games.
They are now three games out of first place with three games remaining, but they’ll take on IU Indy and Detroit Mercy for a fairly favorable end to their regular season schedule, however, they are going to have to use this to their advantage to gain some momentum going into the conference tournament if they want a chance to go dancing in 2026.
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One to Watch
Morehead State
02/16/26 KenPom: 290th
02/23/26 KenPom: 278th
The Morehead State Eagles started off just 3-7 on the season and bounced around to 8-10 overall and 4-3 to start within the Ohio Valley Conference. Since January 17th, they’ve turned it on. The Eagles are now 17-12, 13-5 in the OVC, winners of five in a row, and 9-2 over their last 11 games.
This week, they took down Eastern Illinois 73-70 on the road and Western Illinois 81-59 on the road. While the bottom half of the OVC skews the conference’s overall stature this season, there are some strong teams at the top of the conference which has been an incredible battle down the stretch. Against those teams, they split the season series with SEMO, UT Martin, and Tennessee State while being swept by Lindenwood and sweeping SIUE.
Senior George Marshall has been strong all season, averaging 12.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, two assists, and 1.3 steals, but he’s been even better as of late. During this five-game winning streak, Marshall is averaging 13.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 assists. He’s had a couple of key performances, including their 61-55 upset win over UT Martin on the road as he finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and one steal while shooting 10-12 from the line.
The Eagles are tied with SEMO and Tennessee State for first in the OVC while UT Martin sits at just one game back coming into the last week of the regular season for the conference. It’s going to be a fun week for OVC fans.