Heat Check Report: Who's Hot in Conference Play
College basketball Heat Check Report as conference races intensify: Santa Clara surges, Saint Louis dominates, Wright State rolls while Buffalo stumbles.
It was another incredible week in college basketball as we saw a lot of chaos. Two undefeated teams lost back-to-back games this week in Iowa State and Vanderbilt. The Miami RedHawks remain undefeated after a stunning overtime victory over Buffalo off a buzzer-beating second chance three-point shot to tie the game in regulation.
It’s hard to believe that Selection Sunday is less than two months away now, but that means that it’s becoming crunch time for non-power conference teams to start solidifying their chances to potentially earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take a look at what teams are heating up, who’s on fire, who’s cooling off, and one team that you need to be watching down the stretch. Let’s dive in!
Heating Up
Santa Clara
01/12/26 KenPom: 50th
01/19/26 KenPom: 45th
Santa Clara started off the season on fire at 8-1 with wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, and Minnesota. At the time their one loss was to a strong Saint Louis team on a neutral court by just one point. However, when the calendar flipped to December they scuffled to just a 1-3 start as they lost to New Mexico 98-71, Arizona State 82-79, and Loyola Chicago 80-78.
After losing to the Ramblers they righted the ship and they’ve fired off a 7-1 record over their last eight games. Their one loss was to Gonzaga on the road 89-77. This past weekend, they defeated Saint Mary’s 62-54 and during this stretch they have dominated teams by an average margin of 19.5 points.
Christian Hammond has been lights out for the Broncos. He is averaging 16.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 51% overall and 39% from three-point. His 123.9 offensive rating is 266th in the country, while his 57.2% effective field goal percentage is 272nd and his 60.9% true shooting percentage is 240th. In their huge win against Saint Mary’s, he dropped 25 points with five rebounds, two assists, and one steal.
As a team, they are 50th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 58th in defensive adjusted efficiency. What’s interesting is the fact they aren’t dominating in the traditional categories. For example, looking at their overall defensive standing, you would think they are probably strong in opponent three-point shooting or two-point shooting, however, they are just 129th and 206th in those two categories. They are 51st in opponent blocking percentage and 27th in opponent steal percentage, while sitting at 20th in opponent turnover percentage. If you look at the key individual contributions, you’ll find some interesting key findings:
Blocking percentage
Allen Graves ~ 5.4% (187th)
Thierry Daian ~ 4.3% (281st)
Bukky Oboye ~ 9.2% (35th)
Steal percentage
Allen Graves ~ 4.9% (15th)
Brenton Knapper ~ 3.1% (264th)
On the offensive end, they rank 86th in effective field goal percentage, 46th in two-point shooting percentage, 78th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts, and 84th in assists per field goal made. They are 79th in overall tempo and 95th in average possession length. Combined with their defensive stats and you’ll fid that they love to run quickly, focusing on ball movement to create open opportunities while limiting their opponents’ abilities to disrupt their offensive via steals and blocks.
This week, they’ll play just one game against San Diego on the road. They are favored in eight out of their last ten games with the only two non-favored matchups being against Gonzaga at home and Saint Mary’s on the road.
Queens
01/12/26 KenPom: 183rd
01/19/26 KenPom: 167th
Queens started off the season 5-8, but they have now won six games in a row as they are 11-8 overall and 6-0 in the Atlantic Sun. They’ve climbed in KenPom from 221st to 167th during this stretch.
What’s fascinating is, this isn’t the usual team that we cover where they are even on both defensive and offensive metrics. In fact, they are one of the lowest rated defensive teams in the country. They are 329th in defensive adjusted efficiency and rank below 300 in many of the key metrics like opponent effective field goal percentage, three-point shooting, etc.
On the offensive end, they are 72nd overall in offensive adjusted efficiency, 40th in effective field goal percentage, 20th in two-point shooting percentage and 42nd in non-steal turnover percentage.
They have five players averaging over ten points per game:
Nasir Mann
14.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.1 steals
53.3% shooting overall and 35% from three-point
Chris Ashby
11.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists
37.8% shooting overall and 38% from three-point
Yoav Berman
11.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists
38.2% shooting overall and 27.8% from three-point
Avantae Parker
10.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.1 blocks
73.6% shooting overall and 45.5% from three-point
Jordan Wattford
10.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists
55.3% shooting overall and 40% from three-point
Looking at these key players, you’ll note that many are dishing out a high number of assists. As a team, they are 77th in assists per field goal made and 20th in three-point attempts vs total field goal attempts. The Royals are 106th in adjusted tempo and 41st in average possession length. They love to run fast and as a result they are willing to give up points on the opposite end. During this six-game winning streak, they are allowing 75.5 points on average while scoring 87 points on average.
This week, they’ll take on North Alabama on Wednesday and West Georgia on Saturday.
Portland State
01/12/26 KenPom: 219th
01/19/26 KenPom: 195th
The Portland State Vikings were flying under-the-radar because they were 6-5 coming into Big Sky play with no real notable wins. Their losses were against strong teams for the most part: Stanford, San Francisco, Colorado, Tulane, and Omaha.
Since starting off conference play, they’ve launched a five-game winning streak as they have moved to 11-5 overall and 5-0 in the Big Sky. Somewhat similar to Queens, they are doing it by riding one specific side of the metrics. They are just 234th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 89th in defensive adjusted efficiency.
On the defensive end, they are 61st in opponent effective field goal percentage, 70th in opponent three-point shooting, 92nd in opponent two-point shooting, 42nd in opponent block percentage, and 57th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage. What stands out to me the most is the fact that they do not foul. Their opponents are scoring just 26.6% of their points at the free-throw line which is sixth in the nation.
While their team offensive metrics aren’t strong, they have two players averaging 18+ points in Terri Miller Jr. and Jaylin Henderson. Miller is averaging 18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 55.8% overall and 45.2% from three-point. Henderson is averaging 18.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.7 steals while shooting 43.6% from the floor and 25% from beyond the arc.
They’ll hit the road this week against Eastern Washington and Idaho as they look to stay undefeated in the conference.
Winthrop
01/12/26 KenPom: 138th
01/19/26 KenPom: 124th
Winthrop is coming off a strong week where they handed High Point their largest loss in the Big South in three years 92-75 and took down UNC Asheville 69-67. They are 13-8 overall and 5-1 in the Big South. Throughout this hot stretch, they have jumped to 121st in KenPom as they get closer and close to top-100 status.
As a team, they are 97th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 186th in defensive adjusted efficiency. While they aren’t strong shooters, they do an incredible job at maintaining control of the ball. They are 31st in turnover percentage, 59th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in steal percentage.
Logan Duncomb is one of the most underrated players in the mid-major ranks. He is averaging 17.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists while shooting 61.4% overall from the floor. The 6’10 senior has a 124.7 offensive rating which is 233rd in the country, with a 29.9% possession usage which is 60th. his 59.3% effective field goal percentage is 169th and his 63.8% true-shooting percentage is 94th. On the glass, he as a 13.5% offensive rebounding percentage which is 87th overall and a 20.7% defensive rebounding percentage which is 152nd. Duncomb is a monster at getting to the line as his is third in the country at drawing nearly nine fouls per game, so as a result he is 23rd in free throw rate.
This week, they’ll take on Radford at home and Presbyterian on the road. If the Eagles can start to strike gold on their three-point shooting they’ll be an incredibly dangerous team come March. They are 86th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts, but just 207th overall in three-point shooting. They are already favored to win all games except for High Point on the road, so keep track of Winthrop over the coming weeks.
Want to support my writing, but don’t want to sign up for a monthly subscription? Consider “buying me a coffee” via the link below!
Sign up for Bracket Busters’ Discord to discuss all things Mid-Major Basketball!
On Fire
Saint Louis
01/12/26 KenPom: 34th
01/19/26 KenPom: 29th
The Bilikens of Saint Louis kept it rolling this week as they took down Fordham 78-56 and Richmond 88-63. They now sit at 29th in KenPom, 41st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 32nd in defensive adjusted efficiency.
They are 3rd in effective field goal percentage, 1st in opponent effective field goal percentage, 14th in three-point shooting percentage, 4th in two-point shooting percentage, 6th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 3rd in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
They are good. Very good. Excellent. Whatever you want to call them, but they are genuinely one of the best teams, if not the best team outside of the traditional power conferences. SLU is now 17-1 overall and a perfect 5-0 in the Atlantic 10. They are favored to win out the rest of the way according to KenPom.
This week, they’ll matchup against Duquesne and St. Bonaventure both on the road.
Wright State
01/12/26 KenPom: 136th
01/19/26 KenPom: 130th
The Wright State Raiders had a rocky start at 5-7 with some close losses to California, Toledo, Kent State, Youngstown State, Marshall, and Miami Ohio. They are now in the middle of a seven-game winning streak as they are 12-7 overall and 7-1 in the Horizon League. They’ve climbed from 194th in their preseason ranking per KenPom up to 133rd.
If you are yet to become familiar with Michael Cooper, you need to as soon as possible. The 6’3 freshman is averaging 14.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists while shooting 46.6% overall and 36.6% from beyond the arc.
The Raiders only took on Youngstown State this week, but they did so with a 93-83 win. Keep in mind, they also beat a tough Oakland squad last Sunday. Cooper was quiet in both games with just nine points and four points in the two contests. This represents the depth the team has as if their star player is having an off day, they can rally behind others to get the job done.
This week, they’ll take on Cleveland State and Northern Kentucky both at home as they look to extend their winning streak to nine games.
San Diego State
01/12/26 KenPom: 52nd
01/19/26 KenPom: 47th
The San Diego State Aztecs haven’t been getting enough love in my opinion. They are 13-4 with only one questionable loss to a strong Troy team in double-overtime. Their other three losses were to Michigan, Baylor, and Arizona.
They are now in the middle of a seven game winning streak as they are a perfect 7-0 in the Mountain West. This week, they beat Wyoming on the road 74-57 and took down a really tough New Mexico squad at home 83-79.
Per tradition, the Aztecs are 24th in defensive adjusted efficiency, while they are 81st in offensive adjusted efficiency. They don’t have one dominating offensive player as they have eleven players that are averaging at least ten minutes per game and ten of those players are averaging at least 15 minutes.
During last week’s wins, Miles Byrd had 21 points, eight rebounds, three assists, four blocks, and three steals in a stat sheet stuffer line against New Mexico. Against Wyoming, the Aztecs spread out the love as six players scored at least seven points while they shot 50% as a team and 41% from three-point.
This week, they’ll take on Grand Canyon on the road who just beat No. 23 Utah State and UNLV as they look to move to 9-0 in the Mountain West.
Cooling off
Buffalo
01/12/26 KenPom: 175th
01/19/26 KenPom: 175th
After starting off 13-2 and 3-0 in the MAC, the Buffalo Bulls have dropped three games in a row to Ohio 91-80, Kent State 87-81, and Miami Ohio 105-102 in overtime.
It’s tough to put them on the cooling down list as these were some tough losses to good teams, but the Bulls’ defense is killing them. They are 306th in defensive adjusted efficiency while they are 94th on the offensive side.
Against Miami, they had the RedHawks on the brinks of losing their undefeated run. Unfortunately for the Bulls, an offensive rebound that was tossed outside for a game tying three as the buzzer went off gave the RedHawks the momentum they needed to go into overtime and get the job done.
They don’t have an easy ask this week as they’ll take on Akron who is still very good. All eyes have been on Miami, but Akron is 62nd in KenPom which is nearly 30 spots ahead of Miami. The Bulls will also play UMass who has struggled in the MAC after a decent non-conference showcase.
George Washington
01/12/26 KenPom: 63rd
01/19/26 KenPom: 70th
George Washington has dropped two out of their last three games to Dayton 79-72 and Davidson 84-79. They did get the job done against Loyola Chicago last week 84-79, but the 3-2 start in the Atlantic-10 has been disappointing for a team that many, including myself, could win the conference.
Offensively, they are incredible. They are 39th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 30th in effective field goal percentage, 33rd in offensive rebounding, 60th in three-point shooting, and 32nd in two-point shooting. However, on the defensive end, they’ve struggled. They are just 174th in defensive adjusted efficiency.
Rafael Castro is holding his own on defense with a 6.4% blocking percentage, 4.2% steal percentage, and 26.1% defensive rebounding percentage, but he isn’t getting much help from anyone else.
They don’t have an easy ask this week as they’ll play a red hot George Mason Patriots squad on the road then face off against Richmond who is very capable of picking up the road win.
Use the code “BracketBusters” when checking out at Crow’s Nest Coffee Roasters to receive 20% of your order! Want two bags of coffee shipped to your door every month? Sign up for a monthly subscription here and receive 25% off your monthly subscription!
One to watch
North Dakota State
01/12/26 KenPom: 139th
01/19/26 KenPom: 142nd
We’ve discussed the North Dakota Bison a few times throughout the season in our heat check reports and I wanted to take a momentum to remind you all this week that you need to be watching out for them.
The Bison have won six in a row as they are 16-5 overall and 6-0 in the Summit League. This week, they took down a couple of very strong teams in South Dakota state 76-65 and St. Thomas 68-65.
Coming into the season, I would have said St. Thomas is the favorites, but I knew that North Dakota State could be a problem. Now, it’s looking like it’s going to be a battle down the stretch for the regular season title with the Bison as the favorites.
They are 144th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 141st in defensive adjusted efficiency, so they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Trevian Carson is one of the best shooters in the country as he is averaging 13.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.3 steals while shooting 54% overall and 42.9% from beyond the arc in his first season in Division I.
They’ll look to stay hot against Denver and Oral Roberts on the road this week.
Love this breakdwon! Been following mid major hoops more this season and the Santa Clara surge is legit, Christian Hammond's shooting splits are impressive. The part about Portland State not fouling caught my eye, didnt realize they were 6th in the nation at keeping opponents off the free throw line