Heat Check Report: Late January Power Shift
College Basketball Heat Check Report: Winthrop's Logan Duncomb explodes, Purdue Fort Wayne surges, Miami Ohio stays perfect at 20-0. Winter storm addition.
Welcome to this week’s addition of the Heat Check Report!
I hope that you are all staying warm after the majority of the country was hit by a monster winter storm. Originally, I was unsure if we’d have a Heat Check Report this week as Nashville was struck hard with ice. Fortunately, my wife and I were able to make our way south as we and hundreds of thousands of others were left without power.
This week, we had some incredible conference battles as Miami (OH) flirted with fire in two overtime games as they stay perfect at 20-0, Saturday delivered some insane performances from freshmen throughout college basketball, and Gonzaga and San Francisco went toe-to-toe at the Kennel.
We are closing in on the last third of the season for college basketball so it’s more important than ever for teams to finish strong. However, we saw plenty of teams start to fall flat as Dayton dropped back-to-back games to La Salle and Saint Joseph’s to essentially eliminate their at-large chances. George Mason took a 74-65 loss to Rhode Island, and the Horizon League had some wild losses between IU Indy taking down Oakland 103-85 and Cleveland State knocking off Wright State 85-79.
Let’s dive into it!
Heating Up
UIC
01/19/26 KenPom: 160th
01/26/26 KenPom: 135th
The Missouri Valley Conference is a battle every season, however, this year we have a new contender that has entered the ring. After starting off just 5-10 and 0-4 in the MVC, the UIC Flames have won six games in a row to move to 11-10 overall and 6-4 in the MVC:
SIU 70-57
Illinois State 63-59
Northern Iowa 68-61
Drake 74-67
Evansville 76-49
Bradley 85-70
Their 5-10 record coming into this stretch is a little deceiving. In those ten losses, three were by three points or less and seven were by less than ten. Those included Oregon State, High Point, Robert Morris, Yale, and Charlotte outside of their conference games. However, they did suffer a tough loss to Arkansas Pine Bluff 63-62.
The Flames have jumped to 135th in KenPom overall, which actually matches their preseason rank. Their defensive metrics are what’s really carrying them as during this hot stretch the highest score they’ve given up is 70 to Bradley and they’ve held three teams to less than 60. They sit at 67th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 48th in opponent three-point percentage, and 47th in opponent turnover percentage.
Ahmad Henderson II is leading the team with 12.6 points, 1.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and one steal per game. He’s shooting 38.8% overall and 27.7% from three-point. Henderson features a 30.2% possession usage which is 50th overall in the country. Andy Johnson is right there as well with 12.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and two assists on average while shooting 38.3% overall and 34.7% from three-point.
They’ll take on Indiana State at home and Southern Illinois on the road this week as they look to stay hot.
Troy
01/19/26 KenPom: 111th
01/26/26 KenPom: 111th
The Troy Trojans have been such an interesting team to monitor this season. They started off 5-5 with losses to CSUN and Wes Georgia, but beat San Diego State in double-overtime. Following that West Georgia Loss, they are 10-1 with their only loss to Arkansas State on the road 86-74.
The Trojans have won five games in a row and this week took down Old Dominion in overtime (their fifth overtime game of the year) and Georgia Southern both on the road. They are now 15-6 overall and 8-1 in the Sun Belt while knocking on the door of top-100 in KenPom.
They are 96th overall in offensive adjusted efficiency and 159th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 99th in effective field goal percentage, 69th in offensive rebounding percentage, 87th in three-point shooting percentage, and 95th in opponent steal percentage. They pride themselves in ball control and ball movement as they are 130th in assists per field goal made.
Thomas Dowd continues to dominate as he is averaging 15.7 points and 10.5 rebounds with 1.3 blocks and 1.4 steals and shooting 49.4% overall and 39.3% from three-point. His 57.4% effective field goal percentage is 253rd in the country, while his 22.8% defensive rebounding percentage is 92nd. He’s recorded four double-doubles in a row and this week he racked up 12 points with 15 boards and 16 points with 12 boards in their two wins.
The Trojans will look to keep it rolling against James Madison and App State both at home.
Purdue Fort Wayne
01/19/26 KenPom: 229th
01/26/26 KenPom: 222nd
Purdue Port Wayne started off the team just 4-6 and didn’t win their first division one game until Chicago State on November 25th. To be fair, they played Grand Canyon, Ohio State, Utah, and Saint Louis during that 2-5 start. However, they’ve turned it on since December 6th as they are 9-2 with a notable win over Notre Dame 72-69. Overall they are 13-8 and 7-3 in conference.
This week, they only played Detroit Mercy as they won 83-76, but they picked up their fifth win in a row to move to 13-8 overall and 7-3 in the Horizon League. They haven’t faced the true test of their conference schedule yet as they still have to play Wright State twice, Oakland again, and Northern Kentucky again. They lost to Oakland the first time 101-92, but took down NKU 79-77 at home.
Their team metrics aren’t going to blow you away as they are just 196th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 246th in defensive adjusted efficiency, however, they are 31st in turnover percentage, 42nd in opponent turnover percentage, 93rd in two-point shooting percentage, 70th in block percentage, and 5th in steal percentage.
Three players are really elevating the potential of the Mastodons:
Corey Hadnot II
20 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals
53.4% shooting overall and 35% from three-point
Mikale Stevenson
15.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.6 steals
45.4% shooting overall and 35.9% from three-point
Deandre Craig Jr.
14.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals
44.3% shooting overall and 39% from three-point
Each of those three players rank nationally in usage percentage, while Hadnot is also 257th in effective field goal percentage and 293rd in true shooting percentage. Each are also ranked in assist rate, steal percentage, and either free throw shooting, two-point shooting, or three-point shooting percentage.
The Mastodons and their three-headed monster will have a tough week, but a great opportunity to stay hot as they take on Oakland and Robert Morris at home.
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On Fire
Winthrop
01/19/26 KenPom: 124th
01/26/26 KenPom: 123rd
The Winthrop Eagles are in the midst of a seven game winning streak as they are 13-8 overall and 7-1 in the Big South. They rank 101st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 123rd overall in KenPom.
This week, they took down a strong Radford team 76-75 at home and Presbyterian 82-72 on the road. Logan Duncomb continues to be phenomenal as he dropped 17 points and seven rebounds against Radford, then he dropped a ridiculous stat line of 38 points, 15 rebounds, two assists, one block, and two steals against Presbyterian. His 31.1% possession usage is 30th in the nation, then he has a 63.2% true shooting percentage and a 13.5% offensive rebounding percentage which are 123rd and 76th in the country respectively. He’s also one of the best players in the nation at getting to the line as he is 2nd in fouls drawn per game at 9.3, thus he has a 79 free throw rate which is 18th.
As a team, they are tremendous at ball control. They are 27th in turnover percentage, 64th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 10th in steal percentage. Their shooting percentages are adequate at 191st from three-point and 232nd for two-point, but with Duncomb leading the charge at the line, the Eagles are 46th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt.
They’ll take on UNC Asheville this week on Saturday at home.
Quick Recap
Hitting on some additional teams that stayed on fire this week:
Saint Louis took down Duquesne 81-77 on the road, then they dominated the St. Bonaventure Bonnies 97-62 on the road as well. The Bilikens are looking like a team that could do far more than win just one game in the NCAA Tournament. They are 24th in KenPom, 39th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency as they’ll certainly take another step forward in the AP Poll this week.
Tulsa had a strong week as they took down Memphis 83-66, who is now outside the top-100 in KenPom, and then Rice 87-71. The Golden Hurricane are 24th in offensive efficiency as they moved to 17-3 on the season.
Miami (OH) had not one, but two incredible overtime wins over Buffalo 105-102 and Kent State 107-101. Whenever a mid-major team is ranked, the opponents are always more hungry. You can think back to Indiana State when they reached 23rd in the AP Poll, but lost back-to-back games in the season they were scammed out of the NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks are now 20-0 and 8-0 in the MAC and have a favorable week coming up against UMass and Northern Illinois both at home as they should be favored to move to 22-0.
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One to Watch
Grand Canyon
01/19/26 KenPom: 84th
01/26/26 KenPom: 76th
The Grand Canyon Lopes are having no issue adjusting to the Mountain West. Over the last two weeks, they’ve taken down Utah State 84-74, San Diego State 70-69, and Fresno State 68-57.
Their defensive metrics are incredibly strong as they sit at 27th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 42nd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 27th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 37th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 77th in opponent in two-point shooting percentage.
Jaden Henley has been incredible as he is averaging 17.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.6 assists. This week, he dropped 17 points with seven rebounds against San Diego State and then 23 points with ten rebounds against Fresno State. His 28.5% usage rate is 95th in the nation.
They have a couple of great opportunities this week against Nevada on the road and Boise State at home as they look to stay hot.
Really excited to see how the big south shakes out!