Heat Check Report: Final Full Month Push Begins
College basketball Heat Check Report entering the final month of the regular season: Charlotte surges in AAC, Akron challenges Miami, UC Santa Barbara rebounds from rough stretch
We are in the final full month of the regular season! This season has flown by and we are getting into crunch time as teams across the non-power conferences are vying to strengthen both their resumes and their cushion inside their respective conferences.
This week, Miami continued to win as they moved to 22-0 on the season, Belmont continued to dominate in the Missouri Valley Conference as they moved to 20-3 with a huge win over Murray State, Utah State took down San Diego State in front of an electric home crowd, Santa Clara kept winning as they continue to fly under-the-radar, and Gonzaga took down a tough Saint Mary’s squad on the road 73-65.
Outside of the headlines, let’s take a look at what teams are heating up, who’s on fire, who’s cooling down, and one team that you should be keeping an eye on in this week’s Heat Check Report!
Heating Up
Charlotte
01/26/26 KenPom: 179th
02/02/26 KenPom: 164th
The Charlotte 49ers started off the season 4-7 on the season, but they played some tough teams. Their losses at the time were to Davidson, Virginia Tech, App State, Illinois State, Richmond, Utah State, and Charleston. Keep in mind, only one loss was a blow out to Utah State and five of them were by single digits. Now, they are in the midst of a four game winning streak while winning nine out of their last eleven. They are 13-9 overall and 7-2 in the American.
Offense is driving results for the 49ers. They are 101st in offensive adjusted efficiency compared to just 284 in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here is how their offensive stats breakdown:
78th in effective field goal percentage
39th in offensive rebounding percentage
62nd in free throw attempts / field goal attempts
40th in three-point shooting percentage
132nd in two-point shooting percentage
113th in block percentage
127th steal percentage
107th in three-point attempt / field goal attempt
309th in two-point distribution
As a team, they have two primary focuses. Either get the open shot outside or get to the line. What stands out to me is, they love to shoot free throws, but as a team they are just 212th in free throw shooting percentage. However, the volume is enough to cover up the lower percentage. On average, they are taking 22.2 per game. While they don’t focus on the interior, Anton Bonke does more than enough to still pose a threat inside. This week, we saw this unfold as they took 32 free throws against Rice and 29 against Temple.
Ben Bradford, Dezayne Mingo, and Anton Bonke have been playing huge roles of the team. Bradford is averaging 13.5 points, three rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 46.9% from the floor. His 26.2% possessions usage is 255th in the country, while his 5.1 fouls drawn per game is 281st, paired with a 49.5 free throw rate which is 233rd. He had a quiet week, but in conference his 60.1% effective field goal percentage is 4th and his 60.8% shooting from inside the arc is 10th.
Mingo is averaging 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting 42.6% from the floor and 38.7% from three-point. His 33.1 assist rate is 49th in the country, while his 120.7 offensive rating is 397th. Against Temple this week he has 19 points and dished out ten assists. In fact, he leads the conference with a 43.1 assist rate and he is 4th in three-point shooting.
Bonke is averaging 11 points, 8.3 rebounds, one assist, and 1.6 blocks while shooting 58.8% from the floor and 34.8% from beyond the arc. The 7’2 big man is a problem for opponents. He has a 124 offensive rating which is 238th, while he is 12th in the nation with a 17.2% offensive rebounding percentage. His 22.8% defensive rebounding percentage is 62nd and his 8% blocking percentage is 59th. In conference play, his offensive rating has skyrocketed to 130.5, while he is 4th in shooting inside the arc.
This week, they have two incredible opportunities to solidify themselves as a threat in the conference as they take on Wichita State and Memphis both on the road.
Central Arkansas
01/26/26 KenPom: 196th
02/02/26 KenPom: 188th
John Shulman is in just year two of his tenure with the Central Arkansas Bears and he has completely flipped the script. Last year, they finished 9-24, but keep in mind he did find Layne Taylor who if you have been a reader for a while know I’m a huge fan of. In year two, the Bears are 12-10 overall, 7-2 in the Atlantic Sun, and in the midst of a five game winning streak which includes their best win thus far against Queens on the road this week.
Similarly to Charlotte, they started off cold in the non-conference. They were just 5-8 coming into conference play with losses to North Carolina, Arkansas, Samford (in overtime), North Texas, East Tennessee State, East Texas A&M (still not used to calling them that), Vanderbilt, and SMU. That’s a tough schedule folks. The only two questionable losses are to a Samford team that’s rebuilding in year one with Lennie Acuff and East Texas A&M. In conference, their two losses both came in overtime to Bellarmine and Eastern Kentucky on the road.
Metrics-wise, they are as even as it gets on both ends. They rank 189th in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. Let’s highlight their key stats:
113th in effective field goal percentage
110th in turnover percentage
104th in opponent turnover percentage
45th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
60th in opponent free throw attempt/ field goal attempt
181st in three-point shooting percentage
77th in two-point shooting percentage
119th in steal percentage
69th in opponent steal percentage
122nd in non-steal turnover percentage
20th in three-point attempt / field goal attempt
29th in assist / field goal made
Their defensive metrics aren’t driven by elite bottle-necking on opponent’s shooting. In fact, they are 346th in opponent two-point shooting and 208th in opponent three-point shooting. However, they are 364th in opponent three-point attempt per field goal attempt. What’s interesting about that is, they know that they don’t have good defense from inside. Instead, they drive opponents outside to force them to take a three where they feel they can guard better and prevent opponents from driving inside where they are getting ate alive. It’s a super interesting scheme by John Shulman, but it’s working.
Camren Hunter has been the main driver for the Bears and he has a fun story. He played for Central Arkansas his first two seasons where he dominated. His sophomore season, he averaged 16.9 points, five rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 steals. He then transferred to Wisconsin last year where he appeared in just 11 games and averaged 2.1 minutes. He transferred back to Central Arkansas and now he is dominating. The 6’3 senior is averaging 18.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 49.7% from the floor and 35.2% from beyond the arc. His 27.6% possession usage is 139th overall while he is taking 31.6% of the shots for the team when he is on the court which is 37th in the nation. His 56.5% effective field goal percentage is 281st and it shows. This week, he dropped 32 points on 13-19 shooting against EKU and 31 points on 12-18 shooting against Queens.
Ty Robinson is one of the most underrated freshman in the non-power conference ranks as the 6’4 guard is averaging 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, two assists, and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 46.1% overall and 34.1% from three-point. His 60.8% shooting from inside the arc is 288th in the country, while his 3.4 steal percentage is 154th.
This week, they’ll take on a struggling North Alabama team at home then travel to Nashville to take on a tough Lipscomb Bisons team.
Sam Houston
01/26/26 KenPom: 110th
02/02/26 KenPom: 102nd
I wrote about Sam Houston earlier this season, but the Bearkats are really heating up right now. They’ve won six games in a row as they sit at 15-7 overall, 7-4 in the Conference USA, and they are knocking on the door of top-100 KenPom status.
This past week, they took down Missouri State on the road 80-71 and Louisiana Tech at home 83-67. They sit at 97th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 123rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how their key stats breakdown:
108th in effective field goal percentage
48th in offensive rebounding percentage
42nd in three-point shooting percentage
170th in two-point shooting percentage
36th in blocking percentage
164th in opponent effective field goal percentage
128th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
31st in opponent free-throw shooting percentage
115th in opponent steal percentage
47th in tempo
66th in average possession length
One area that KenPom metrics don’t highlight here is just how dominant they have been on the glass. Yes, they are 47th in offensive rebounding percentage, however they are 10th in the entire country in rebounds per game at nearly 42. They are 24th in rebound margin and 24th in defensive rebounds per game. Outside of rebounding, they are focused on running more isolated offense plays as they are just 219th in assists per field goal made, but 42nd in three-point shooting and 109th in overall effective field goal shooting. Let’s highlight a couple players and you’ll see this come to light.
Kashie Natt is one of the most fascinating players in the country in my opinion. He transferred in from the NAIA level and he’s the definition of a stat sheet stuffer. He is averaging 10.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 2.2 steals per game while shooting 47.3% overall and 47.7% from beyond the arc at 6’3. I’d need to do some data sorting, but I have to imagine that his 20.3% defensive rebounding percentage is one of the highest of his height in the country as he sits at 173rd overall. His 4.9% steal percentage is 9th in the nation and his 51.3% three-point shooting against division one opponents is also 9th.
Veljko Ilic is averaging 11.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 59.5%. His 57.7% effective field goal percentage is 216th in the nation, while his 12.9% offensive rebounding percentage is 99th. After three seasons at Loyola Maryland, he’s stepped into a larger roll and taken off.
This week, they’ll take on UTEP at home, then matchup against Louisiana Tech again, but this time on the road.
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On Fire
Akron
01/26/26 KenPom: 54th
02/01/26 KenPom: 52nd
All eyes have been on Miami in the MAC, but people are overlooking the incredible season that Akron is having. The Zips are 18-4, 52nd in KenPom, and 50th in the NET.
This week, they took down Toledo 91-81 and Kent State 69-52. They are 32nd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 5th in effective field goal percentage, 12th in three-point shooting, 12th in two-point shooting, 53rd in free throw shooting, and 52nd in steal percentage. Essentially folks…they score…a lot. Their win against Kent State marked the first time they’d scored below 70 points in the entire season.
Tavari Johnson poured in 25 points against Toledo with seven assists and two steals, as Amani Lyles had 19 points with five rebounds and four assists. Against Kent State, Johnson led with 16 points, eight reboudns, and four assists, but Bowen Hardman came up huge off the bench with 15 pints on 5-9 shooting from deep in a game where as a team they shot just 11-34 from three-point.
The possibility of a two-bid MAC isn’t out of the realm of reality given that Miami is 22-0, but the chances are very slim given the committee’s treatment to non-power conference teams over the year. However, barring any collapse from either team over the next month it would be a crime to not see both in the big dance.
UC Santa Barbara
01/26/26 KenPom: 137th
02/02/26 KenPom: 120th
It got bleak for the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos for a while. They started off strong at 8-2 on the season and 2-0 in the Big West. However, they scuffled to a 1-5 stretch, dropping games to Utah Valley, Green Bay, Cal St. Fullerton, CSUN, and UC Davis.
They’ve bounced back as they are in the midst of a six-game winning streak and they are dominating. This week, they took down UC San Diego 62-48 and Cal St. Fullerton 83-69. During this stretch, they dropped 107 against Cal Poly, and they are holding opponents to just 64.3 points per game despite ranking just 210th in overall defensive adjusted efficiency.
As a team, they are clicking and it’s not just one person dominating. This week against UC San Diego, Aidan Mahaney, Zion Sensley, and CJ Shaw all had ten points each while Miro Little led with 15 points, six rebounds, and two assists. Against Cal St. Fullerton, CJ Shaw led with 17 points, as Little had 12, Colin Smith had 13, and Marvin McGhee had 14. This has been the trend throughout this run as it’s a multitude of different players stepping up each game.
They’ll look to stay hot against UC Davis and UC Irvine this week.
Cooling off
Dayton
01/26/26 KenPom: 80th
02/02/26 KenPom: 88th
The Dayton Flyers are a mess right now. They are 14-8, 5-2 in the A-10, and in the middle of a four game losing streak while dropping games to La Salle, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island, and an abysmal performance against #21 Saint Louis 102-71.
Their offense is killing them as Javon Bennett and De’Shayne Montgomery are getting absolutely no help. Bennett when cold this week, scoring just 11 against Rhode Island and nine against Saint Louis, while Montgomery had 14 against the Rams and 23 against the Bilikens.
I’ve watched three of the four games that they’d dropped during this stretch and it seems like every possession on offense they are fighting for their lives to try and get an open shot. It’s not working and this is most likely going to cost Anthony Grant his job come the offseason as rumors are circling around his status on the hot seat. Nothing is set in stone there by any means.
They’ll look to rebound against St. Bonaventure who has been playing much better as of late, winning 2 of their last four and dropping a close game against George Mason, then VCU on the road. KenPom has the Flyers finishing just 18-13 on the season and 9-9 in conference.
UNLV
01/26/26 KenPom: 121st
02/02/26 KenPom: 136th
Things were going well for the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels for a while as they were 6-2 over an eight game stretch while sitting at 10-8 overall and 5-2 in the Mountain West. However, they are now in the middle of a three game losing streak to San Diego State, New Mexico, and Nevada. Given, each of these teams are in the top-60 in KenPom, however, two games were at home and none have been close.
Defensively, they’ve fallen apart. Against San Diego State, the Aztecs shot 61.5% from deep and 56.5% overall. New Mexico shot 41.7% from three-point and 50.7% overall. Nevada shot 57.1% from beyond the arc and 58% overall. It’s pretty difficult to overcome those numbers.
They’ll look to get things straightened out against Fresno State and Grand Canyon this week.
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One to Watch
Tennessee State
01/26/26 KenPom: 236th
02/02/26 KenPom: 239th
There is no doubt that the Ohio Valley Conference has taken a much needed step up this season. UT Martin has been incredible, while SEMO, Lindenwood, Morehead State, and SIUE have all stepped up as well. Aside from UT Martin, the largest jump in my opinion has been from Tennessee State.
The Tigers are 14-7 overall and 8-3 in conference underneath Nolan Smith in his first season as head coach. In the non-conference, they went toe-to-toe with Belmont who has been dominating in the MVC, kept it a game against Western Kentucky, and beat UNLV. Their only two bad losses of the season are against Alabama A&M where is was just a rough showing, losing 80-53 on the road and then Eastern Illinois 74-70 on the road as well.
They aren’t dominating in the metrics as they are just 219th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 252nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, but they are getting closer and closer to top-200 KenPom status, which if they could hit before the end of the year would be the first time they’ve finished in the top-200 since 2018.
Travis Harper II and Aaron Nkrumah have been phenomenal. Harper is averaging 17.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 50% overall and 39.6% from three-point. Nkruman is averaging 17.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and three steals per game while shooting 43.7% overall and 33% from deep. His 5.2% steal percentage is sixth in the entire country, while Harper’s 65.6% true shooting percentage is 47th.
This has been a fun development in the OVC and you have to keep an eye on the Tigers. This week they’ll take on Tenn Tech and Eastern Illinois at home as KenPom has them finishing 20-10 overall and 14-6 in conference.
Phenomenal breakdown on these mid-major teams getting overlooked. The Charlotte offensive scheme is really fascianting though, basically betting that volume at the line covers up inefficiency. I've been watching Kashie Natt from Sam Houston for a bit now and its wild how a 6'3 guard can pull down defensive boards like that, basically out-hustling forwards on everyposession.