Heat Check Report: Conference Tournaments Begin
Welcome to March! We are just two weeks away from Selection Sunday and we have some teams heating up in Robert Morris, Hofstra, and more. Who could become a Bracket Buster?
Welcome to MARCH!
It’s officially one of the most wonderful times of the year as we enter March with conference tournaments starting as soon as today, but starting to kick into high gear tomorrow. We still have several conferences that are wrapping up the regular season with last minute battles for better seeding on the line.
Our Heat Check Report is going to look slightly different this week as we focus on who’s heating up and who’s on upset watch entering their respective conference tournaments this week. We’re adding a conference roundup, highlighting those that have clinched their regular season titles over the past week, giving you the context you need to know as you gear up to fill out your brackets.
Let’s dive into the madness.
Heating Up
Robert Morris
02/23/26 KenPom: 157th
03/02/26 KenPom: 146th
The Colonials are HOT right now. They closed out the season winning seven games in a row, including taking down the conference champions twice in Wright State. This week, they took care of business against Detroit Mercy 73-62 and Cleveland State 83-64.
While their offense has been a tremendous driver of their success this season, their defense has been the true turning stone that helped them finish at 21-10 and 13-7 in the Horizon League. During this seven game winning streak, the Colonials did not let a single team score more than 69 points while scoring 72+ and 80+ in four games. They rank 136th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 182nd in defensive adjusted efficiency.
The combination of Ryan Prather Jr. and Desean Goode is going to be lethal in the conference tournament and whichever postseason tournament they land in. Prather Jr. is averaging 15.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on the season while shooting 43.8% overall and 36.9% from three-point. During this winning streak, he’s averaging 17.4 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. Goode is averaging 15.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists on the season while shooting 63.3% overall and 59.3% from three-point on 59 attempts. During the winning streak he has two double-doubles and he’s averaging 16.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.3 steals.
The Colonials secured the two-seed in the Horizon League Tournament which kicks off this week. They’ll take on Youngstown State in the first round on Wednesday. During the regular season they swept the Penguins with an 80-77 home win in overtime and a 72-66 road win.
Arkansas State
02/23/26 KenPom: 140th
03/02/26 KenPom: 143rd
Arkansas State stumbled in January as they went 1-5 over the back-half of the month. They responded well in February, winning seven of their eight games to close out the regular season and finishing on a four-game winning streak. Their one loss came against South Alabama 92-88 in overtime.
As a team, they sit at 140th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 174th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Underneath year one of Ryan Pannone at the helm, they run one of the fastest offenses in the country as they sit at 9th in tempo and 6th in average possession length. It’s worked as the Red Wolves finished the regular season 20-11 and 11-7 in the Sun Belt.
They run an interesting style of offense as they are 68th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. However, they sit at just 236th in three-point shooting percentage vs 100th in two-point shooting percentage. Throw in the fact that they are 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, the puzzle pieces start to come together. They focus on taking a quick shot and cleaning up the glass thanks to three players ranking nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
In general, they run a uniquely deep rotation. Eleven players are averaging at least 10 minutes per game and the most minutes comes from Christian Harmon who averages 27.4 minutes. He also leads the team while averaging 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 39.7% overall and 34.6% from beyond the arc.
The Sun Belt runs a wild conference tournament bracket, so the Red Wolves will play one of either ULM, Old Dominion, or Georgia Southern on Thursday. To win the entire conference tournament they’d have to get hot and win a whopping five games in a row including South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, and Marshall before they even get to the Championship.
Morehead State
02/23/26 KenPom: 278th
03/02/26 KenPom: 282nd
The Ohio Valley Conference has been an absolute battle this season. Both Morehead State and Tennessee State shared the regular season title in the conference as the Eagles finished the season winning seven games in a row and losing just twice since January 15th.
As a team, they rank 199th in offensive adjusted efficiency and just 323rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, their defense has stepped up tremendously on their hot stretch. Since January 15th, they’ve given up move than 70 points just three times, two of which were losses.
George Marshall has been the primary driver along with Davion Cunningham and Jon Carroll. Marshall is averaging 13.7 points with 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 43% overall and 37.3% from beyond the arc. Cunningham is averaging 11.6 points with 4.1 rebounds and two assists while Carroll is a monster on the glass averaging 11.4 points with 7.7 rebounds. Carroll is ranked 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
They live inside the paint as they are just 348th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. However, they rank just 241st in two-point shooting percentage, but they are 20th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Tennessee State won the tiebreaker, so Morehead State clinched the two-seed in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. As a result, they receive a two-game bye which automatically puts them in the semi-finals. They’ll play one of either Lindenwood, Little Rock, or SEMO on Friday in Evansville, Indiana.
Hofstra
02/23/26 KenPom: 94th
03/02/26 KenPom: 92nd
The Hofstra Pride deserve more love. They are 20-10, winners of seven of their last eight, they rank in the top-100 of KenPom, and have impressive team metrics. As a team, they are 96th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 104th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their metrics line up:
164th in effective field goal percentage
77th in offensive rebounding percentage
29th in three-point shooting percentage
58th in free throw shooting percentage
32nd in steal percentage
13th in opponent effective field goal percentage
88th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
5th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
Looking at their schedule and losses, they’ve yet to be blown out a single time. Their largest loss came against Iona in the non-conference 81-73. They lost by just four to UCF who has had a tremendous season, five to Temple, two to Columbia, and they’ve lost by five or less in five of their six conference losses.
Cruz Davis has been phenomenal this season. The 6’3 junior is averaging 20.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 45.2% overall and 40.3% from beyond the arc. He ranks 172nd in possession usage, 180th in assist rate, and 181st in three-point shooting.
The Pride have one last game against Drexel at home on Tuesday before the CAA Tournament kicks off later in the week. They stand alone in third place, but if they drop their game against Drexel they’ll tie with the Dragons. If they hold onto the three-seed, they’ll secure a bye until Sunday when they take on the winner of the seven and ten seed which will be some mix of Stony Brook, William & Mary, Towson, Campbell, Hampton, or Elon.
Want to support my writing, but don’t want to sign up for a monthly subscription? Consider “buying me a coffee” via the link below!
Sign up for Bracket Busters’ Discord to discuss all things Mid-Major Basketball!
On Fire
Conference Roundup
Central Arkansas clinched a share of the Atlantic Sun title with Austin Peay after putting up an incredible week. They took down the Governors 93-88 on the road, then followed it up with an 84-79 win at home against Queens. They’ve lost just once since January 10th while sitting at 20-11 on the season and 15-3 in conference. They’ll take on the winner of Bellarmine and Jacksonville on Friday.
Wright State bounced back this week, taking down Purdue Fort Wayne 74-70 and Northern Kentucky on an incredible late comeback 92-71 on the road. The Raiders finished the season 20-11 and 15-5 in the Horizon League as they clinched the regular season title. They’ll play the winner of Cleveland State and IU Indy on Wednesday.
Tennessee State clinched a share of the Ohio Valley Conference this week for the first time since 1999. They finished the season on a four-game winning streak, taking down SEMO 79-71 on the road and UT Martin 67-42 at home this week. The Tigers finished 21-9 overall and 15-5 in the OVC. They’ll take on one of SIUE, Eastern Illinois, or UT Martin on Friday in the semi-finals of the conference tournament.
Saint Mary’s took down #9 Gonzaga 70-59 in Moraga in their last regular season matchup before the Zags move to the PAC-12 next year. As a result, the Gaels clinched a share of the WCC title for the fourth consecutive year. They finished the season on a eight-game winning streak, 27-4 overall, 16-2 in conference, and in the top-25 of KenPom.
Troy clinched the Sun Belt regular season title as they finished 20-11 overall and 12-6 in conference. They were a little shaky at 3-3 over their last six games, but thanks to the conference tournament bracket, they’ll rest for a few days before being given a near guaranteed ticket to have a good shot at punching their ticket to the big dance.
North Dakota State clinched the regular season title in the Summit League as they took down North Dakota on Saturday 96-63. This came after a dominating defeat against St. Thomas on last Thursday 84-62 on the road. The Bisons finished the season 24-7 overall and 14-2 in conference. Watch out for the Tommies in the conference tournament, but the Bisons will take on the winner of Oral Roberts and UMKC.
Use the code “BracketBusters” when checking out at Crow’s Nest Coffee Roasters to receive 20% of your order! Want two bags of coffee shipped to your door every month? Sign up for a monthly subscription here and receive 25% off your monthly subscription!
Cooling Down
Portland State
02/23/26 KenPom: 143rd
03/02/26 KenPom: 159th
The Portland State Vikings were cruising at 17-6 and 11-1 in the Big Sky halfway through February, but things have gone south over the last few weeks. The Vikings are now just 1-4 over their last 5 games while riding a three-game losing streak.
They don’t run a high octane offense as they sit at 281st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 52nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, during this stretch they have yet to score more than 69 points and they only mustered 55 in their loss to the red hot Eastern Washington Eagles. Defense can absolutely win you championships, however, scoring sub-70 points in this era of college basketball is not a recipe for winning especially when your defense isn’t staying up to par.
Looking at their four losses, they have up 77 to Northern Colorado, 67 to Eastern Washington, 84 to Montana State, and 74 to Montana. For comparison, they’ve only given up 80+ in six games counting the Eastern Washington loss and they’ve only given up 70+ 13 times and three of those have come in the last five games. Now, Montana State and Eastern Washington are just one game out of first place with on game remaining.
They have a chance to bounce back against Weber State today, but they’ll need this win to give them some confidence heading into the Big Sky Tournament later this week.
East Tennessee State
02/23/26 KenPom: 133rd
03/02/26 KenPom: 140th
East Tennessee State has put together an incredible season. On February 11th, the Buccaneers were 19-7 overall and 11-2 in the SoCon. However, they won just two out of their last five games in the regular season. During that stretch they fell to Samford in overtime 82-72, Wofford 72-69, and Mercer 82-76 while picking up a 78-69 win against Furman and an 87-75 win against UNC Greensboro.
They are a well balanced team, sitting at 149th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 155th in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, on the season they have only won one game while scoring less than 73 points and they scored less than that in two of those three losses. Against Mercer they did shoot 45% overall, but Mercer was lights out from three as the Bears shot 52% on 21 attempts. In their loss to Wofford this week, the Buccaneers shot just 15% from three-point and 2x’d their turnovers compared to Wofford.
Despite a bit of a cool down, ETSU was able to secure the regular season title in their win against UNC Greensboro, giving a bye until they take on the winner of Chattanooga and The Citadel on Saturday. They’ll need to watch out for Samford in my opinion who finished the regular season winning eight of their last nine games.
The Weeks to Come
As we are officially in March, I thought it would be important to highlight the content we have coming up:
This will be the last “Heat Check Report” of the season! I’m looking forward to gathering feedback from you all on whether you enjoyed the new format this season compared to our previous “Top 25 Mid-Major” updates. Paid subscribers, you can expect to receive a survey at the end of the season.
As conference tournaments get started, we’ll be sending out extra newsletters throughout the week highlighting any upsets or major trends.
Once we have teams that have secured auto-bids to the NCAA Tournament, we’ll produce a handful of breakdowns so you know which teams have a good chance at becoming a Bracket Buster.
Yes…it’s back…we are going to be hosting out 3rd annual CBI Tournament Challenge! More details to come on the prize for the winner this season!
As always, thank you all for reading and contributing to growing the Mid-Major brand!