Heat Check Report: Conference Standings Tighten
Heat Check Report: Northern Colorado rebounds, Samford's turnaround, Cornell's offensive explosion. Conference tournaments approaching fast
Welcome back to another Heat Check Report!
Miami remained perfect with wins over Buffalo and Marshall both on the road this week as they move to 24-0 and should remain #23 next week in the AP Poll or move up a spot to #22. Saint Louis extended their winning streak to 17 games as they move to 23-1 and 11-0 in the Atlantic-10. Belmont picked up their ninth win in a row as they hold onto first place in the Missouri Valley Conference and extended their lead by two games. Stephen F. Austin took down McNeese, and so much more.
Let’s dive into who’s heating up, who’s on fire, and who’s cooling down in this week’s Heat Check Report!
Heating Up
Jacksonville State
02/02/26 KenPom: 205th
02/09/26 KenPom: 185th
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have won five out of their last six games to move to 13-10 on the season and 8-4 in the Conference USA. They started off rocky at just 4-6 including losses to North Alabama, Georgia State, and Eastern Kentucky in which all three have aged poorly. However, they hit the reset button once they reached conference play and they do do have a strong non-conference win over East Tennessee State on the road.
This week, they took down Western Kentucky 71-66 and Kennesaw State 77-58. Looking at their four conference losses they fell to Liberty 78-69, Kennesaw State 88-82, Sam Houston 77-62, and Missouri State 74-67, so aside from the Sam Houston game all have been close.
As a team, they are 185th in KenPom, 244th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 125th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 56th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 130th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 61st in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 78th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
On the offensive end, they have an incredibly interesting makeup of metrics. They are 312th in tempo and 316th in average possession length. They rank 5th in the country in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts, but they are just 299th in free throw shooting percentage. In fact, they rank 35th in the country with nearly 25 free throw attempts per game. Their defense is carrying them, so with the lack of shooting abilities the theory is to get to the line as much as possible to guarantee themselves the opportunity to score even if they convert at a low rate.
Looking at their key players, Mostapha El Moutaouakkil has been phenomenal this season. The 6’6 senior is averaging 18.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 45.8% from the floor and 31.9% from beyond the arc. He’s essentially the main driver of everything on the offensive end as he is 3rd in the country in usage percentage and 10th in the nation in shot percentage as he is taking 33.9% of the Gamecocks’ shots when he is on the floor. Leaning into the free throw scheme, he is 7th in the nation while drawing nearly eight fouls per game which corresponds into a 62.3 free throw rate which is 70th.
The Gamecocks have figured out how to win games while lacking a strong ability to score, which is powered by their defense and ability to draw fouls. This week, they’ll look to keep it rolling against UTEP and New Mexico State both at home.
Northern Colorado
02/02/26 KenPom: 186th
02/09/26 KenPom: 162nd
It’s been a while since I’ve written about Northern Colorado because after a tremendous start to the season at 10-3 with a win over Colorado and competitive loss to Texas Tech on the road, the Bears fell apart. They went on a 2-9 stretch over eleven games, but they’ve rebounded with a four-game winning streak. During their 1-7 start in the Big Sky, they never lost by double-digits and they lost six games by six or less points.
As a team, they are 128th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 223rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. During this winning streak, their defense has been the key. They’ve held opponents to less than 75 points in three of the four games.
Looking at their offensive metrics, they’ve never slowed down. They are 35th in effective field goal percentage, 84th in three-point shooting percentage, 31st in two-point shooting percentage, 80th in free throw shooting percentage, 17th in block percentage, and 57th in steal percentage.
Quinn Denker missed some time with an injury, but he has had no problem coming back. On the season, he is averaging 18.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and seven assists while shooting 48.4% overall and 33.3% from three-point. During this four game winning streak, he’s dropped 30+ points twice. He is 77th in possession usage, 19th in assist rate at 37.6, and he is 24th in the Big Sky with a 15.3% defensive rebounding percentage.
Brock Wisne has emerged as a great support piece to Denker as he is averaging 15.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 57.1% from the floor at 39.1% from three-point. He is 116th in effective field goal percentage, 179th in true-shooting percentage, and 263rd in two-point shooting percentage.
The Bears have six games remaining, four of which are at home including Sacramento State and Portland State this week. If they can close out going 4-2 or 5-1 then they will have built an incredible amount of momentum going into the Big Sky tournament.
Samford
02/02/26 KenPom: 241st
02/09/26 KenPom: 222nd
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Samford Bulldogs underneath Lennie Acuff in year one, however, the Bulldogs have now won four out of their last five games including a dominating victory of Mercer 69-49 on Saturday to move to 13-12 on the season and 6-6 in the Southern Conference.
This team is the polar opposite of Jacksonville State as they are 169th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 270th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 4th in turnover percentage, 36th in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts, 4th in steal percentage, 200th in three-point shooting percentage, and 185th in two-point shooting percentage.
On the defensive end, they are 218th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 351st in opponent turnover percentage, 47th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 300th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 131st in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 28th in opponent block percentage, and 358th in opponent steal percentage.
While their defensive metrics don’t look great on the surface, they do a good job at forcing opponents to take shots inside the arc. Opponents are scoring just 29.9% of their points from beyond the arc where the Bulldogs are just 300th in the nation in opponent shooting percentage, compared to them scoring 50.8% of their points from inside where the Bulldogs are 131st.
Jadin Booth and Dylan Fulkner have been the go-to guys on offense for the Bulldogs, powered by Keaton Norris who is averaging 4.6 assists to just 1.3 turnovers per fame. Booth is averaging 20.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 44.8% overall and 42.9% from three-point. He sits at 107th in true shooting percentage, 46th in free throw shooting percentage, 149th in three-point shooting percentage, and 273rd in offensive rating.
Faulkner is averaging 17.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 62.4% from the floor. He is 40th in possession usage at 30.6%, 67th in effective field goal percentage, 47th in defensive rebounding percentage at 24.5%, 112th in block percentage at 6.4%, 4th in fouls drawn per game at 8.6 with a 78.7 free throw rate which is 18th overall, and he is 187th in two-point shooting percentage.
Samford has a tough week, but it’s a good opportunity to prove that this run is legitimate. They take on Wofford at home on Wednesday, then they’ll travel to take on a tough East Tennessee State squad on Saturday.
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On Fire
Central Arkansas
02/02/26 KenPom: 188th
02/09/26 KenPom: 165th
Welcome to On Fire status! The Bears have now won seven games in a row in the Atlantic Sun with wins over both Queens and Lipscomb on the road. This week they beat Lipscomb 86-78 behind Camren Hunter’s 32 points, and North Alabama 81-60 with Luke Moore dropping 15 points with seven assists.
Hunter is now averaging 18.8 points with 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 50.3% overall. As a team, they are 74th in the nation in two-point shooting percentage and 94th in effective field goal percentage.
There was a big question just a couple of short weeks ago about whether or not they could win on the road and now they are 3-0 in their last three road wins including those Queens and Lipscomb games.
This is a very dangerous team in the Atlantic Sun that’s closing in on Austin Peay quickly. You are going to want to pay attention to the Atlantic Sun down the stretch as it’s emerged as one of the most enjoyable late conference battles this season.
They look to stay hot this week as they take on North Alabama on the road and Bellarmine at home.
Navy
02/02/26 KenPom: 171st
02/09/26 KenPom: 166th
Colgate is the traditional force in the Patriot League, but Navy is well on their way to putting their best season together since 2022. The Midshipmen are 19-6 and 11-1 in the Patriot League while having lost just one game since November 29th. Their losses in the non-conference are not shameful either as they fell to Yale, Penn State, North Carolina, UNC Wilmington, and SELA.
Navy is 240th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 107th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They always say that defense wins championships right? They sit at 49th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 31st in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 14th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 17th in opponent free throw attempt vs field goal attempt, and 152nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
They’ve won seven games in a row and Austin Benigni is the leading driver. The 5’11 guard is averaging 18.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 42.8% overall and 46.6% from three-point. He is 127th in possession usage, 196th in assist rate, 75th in free throw shooting percentage and 47th in three-point shooting.
The Midshipman will face off against Bucknell, then Colgate for the first time in conference play. KenPom has them projected to win five of their last six games, losing just one game to Colgate on the road by a point.
Cooling Down
Mercer
02/02/26 KenPom: 139th
02/09/26 KenPom: 167th
After starting off 13-7 and 5-2 in the Southern Conference, the Mercer Bears are just 2-3 in their last five games with their two wins being against UNC Greensboro (311th in KenPom) and VMI (359th in KenPom). This week they fell to Chattanooga 79-75 and Samford 69-49.
They shot just 10-41 from beyond the arc against Samford and Chattanooga, 27% overall against the Bulldogs and 31% against the Mocs. As a team, they are 131st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 162nd in three-point shooting percentage, 142nd in two-point shooting percentage, and 141st in effective field goal percentage, so this has been an unusual stretch.
Star guard Baraka Okojie had 19 points and 25 points, but he didn’t get much help considering he had 25 of the team’s 49 points against Samford.
The Bears are going to look to bounce back this week against Furman at home and The Citadel on the road.
Lipscomb
02/02/26 KenPom: 158th
02/09/26 KenPom: 176th
The Lipscomb Bisons were hot, sitting at 14-7 and 7-1 in the Atlantic Sun, but they’ve now fell to just 8-4 in conference as they are 1-3 in their last four gams including a loss to Jacksonville who sits at 304th in KenPom. They took down North Florida 100-94, but fell to Austin Peay on the road 87-76 and Central Arkansas at home 96-78.
Amid this stretch, they’ve fallen to fourth place in the conference behind Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, and Queens. There is no one key area that they’ve been struggling with during this stretch. Against Jacksonville, they shot just 30% from three-point, which is their do-or-die style of play. Austin Peay shot lights out against them as they finished shooting 60% from both the floor and from three-point, while Lipscomb shot just 29% from three-point. Central Arkansas crushed them on the boards with 14 offensive rebounds, while Lipscomb shot just 15-22 from the free throw line. It’s been a mix of different areas and they haven’t been blown out in any games, which gives me confidence that this should be just a blip on the season, similarly to their start to the season.
They’ll look to get on track against Eastern Kentucky and Queens this week. If they can go 2-0, they’ll be right back in the picture with just a couple of weeks left in the regular season and a friendly schedule to close out the season.
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One to Watch
Cornell
02/02/26 KenPom: 173rd
02/09/26 KenPom: 156th
The Big Red of Cornell have been up-and-down, but they’ve quietly now won four of their last five games, including a key win against Harvard on the road 86-79. They are now 11-10 overall and 4-4 in the Ivy League.
What’s important to know about Cornell is, they are all gas and no brakes on offense. They sit at 46th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 13th in tempo, 4th in average possession length…and just 350th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are an offensive fan’s dream team.
Cornell is 10th in effective field goal percentage, 9th in three-point shooting, and 21st in two-point shooting percentage. Notably, they are also 3rd in assists per field goal made and 7th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts as they score 42.5% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 4th most in the country. They are the true definition of “live or die by the three”.
This is the type of team that if they get hot from deep, they could stun the favorites in the Ivy League and punch a ticket to the big dance. However, if they do that, don’t count them out. Mid-Majors that can shoot lights out from deep have the potential for a first-round upset…remember Jack Gohlke?
The Big Red will look to keep it going against Princeton and Penn on the road this week.