Heat Check Report: Conference Play Heats Up
First 2026 Heat Check Report as conference play begins: Georgia Southern's 9-game streak, Temple's offensive efficiency, Charleston Southern emerges.
It’s time for the first Heat Check Report of 2026!
We held off on posting a Heat Check Report last week due to the lack of games during the week of Christmas. However, we are back as conference play is in full swing and it hasn’t disappointed. This past weekend was the first full conference weekend of the season and we saw plenty of action up-and-down the conferences throughout the country.
Some of the hottest teams in the country stayed hot as Saint Louis extended their winning streak to seven games, Miami Ohio took down both Bowling Green on the road and Akron at home to move to 15-0 on the season, Murray State extended their winning streak to nine, and so much more.
Let’s dive into this week’s Heat Check Report to see what teams are starting to trend up and which are cooling down!
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Heat Check
Temple
12/22/25 KenPom: 149th
01/05/26 KenPom: 144th
While all eyes have been on Tulsa in the American, Temple has busted out with a six-game winning streak to push them to 10-5 on the season and 2-0 in the conference. Over the last week, they’ve taken down Charlotte 76-73 and UTSA 76-57. Against UTSA, Jordan Mason finished with 15 points, five rebounds, four steals, and a whopping 12 assists.
Offensively, the Owls are one of the best outside of the power-conference ranks. They are 88th in overall adjusted efficiency, 8th in turnover percentage, 35th in three-point shooting percentage, 29th in free-throw attempts vs field goal attempts, 36th in steal percentage, and 12th in non-steal turnover percentage.
Their offensive plan comes from limiting turnovers, taking effective shots from beyond the arc, and getting to the free-throw line. They have three players ranking nationally in free-throw rate, with Jordan Mason and Derrian Ford ranking in the top-290.
Derrian Ford has been lights out this season for the Owls. He’s averaging 17.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.8 assists while shooting 44% overall and 36.1% from three-point. In total, they have four players averaging eleven points or better while Jordan Mason has emerged as a stout playmaker as he is averaging nearly five assists per game with a 25.9 assist rat.e
Looking at the week ahead, they have just one game against East Carolina at home. However, next week they’ll have a good opportunity that they can compete at the top of the American as they’ll travel to Memphis to take on the Tigers and play FAU at home.
Tulane
12/22/25 KenPom: 197th
01/05/26 KenPom: 183rd
We are highlighting another team from the American as Tulane is in the middle of a four-game winning streak after taking down East Carolina 79-70 and FAU 69-66 this week. The Green Wave are now 11-4 on the season and 2-0 in conference play.
No team has been able to have an answer for Rowan Brumbaugh this season as he is averaging 18.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and two steals per game while shooting 43.1% overall and 38% from three-point. He’s finished with less than 12 points just once against Nicholls when he finished with eight points. His 27.6% possession usage is 151st in the nation, while his 58.5% true shooting percentage is 390th and his 3.3% steal percentage is 221st.
This is another team that is living at the free-throw line. In fact, they are 7th in the country in points total point distribution from the line. They rank 12th in free-throw attempts vs field goal attempts, 49th in free-throw percentage. Similarly to Temple, they take great care of the ball as they are 52nd in turnover percentage and 50th in non-steal turnover percentage. Brumbaught has a ridiculous 71.9 free throw rate which is in the top-40 in the country, and he’s drawing nearly 6.5 fouls per game. Asher Woods and Tyler Ringgold both rank nationally in free-throw rate as well at 343rd and 175th respectively.
Overall, the Green Wave rank 159th in offensive adjusted efficiency, just 286th in three-point shooting percentage, and 150th in two-point shooting percentage. Interestingly enough, they are 129th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts, yet they rank low in their corresponding shooting percentage.
This week, they’ll take on UTSA on the road Saturday in their only game of the week.
UC Irvine
12/22/25 KenPom: 142nd
01/05/26 KenPom: 126th
The Anteaters had a bit of a rocky start at just 3-4 with two wins over non-division one opponents, but they quickly figured it out and put together an 8-1 record over their last nine games. Currently, they are in the middle of a four-game winning streak and they took down Cal St. Bakersfield 81-77 and Cal St. Fullerton 86-64 this week to move to 4-0 in the Big West.
Russell Turner once again has UC Irvine as one of the best defensive teams in the country:
45th in adjusted defensive efficiency
13th in opponent effective field goal percentage
2nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage
20th in opponent free-throw shooting percentage
19th in opponent blocking percentage
61st in opponent free-throw attempts vs field goal attempts
Offensively, they are struggling as they are 252nd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 278th in two-point shooting percentage, and just 327th in free-throw shooting percentage. Essentially, they are ride-and-dying on the defensive end. When opponents score 70+ on them, they are just 4-3.
Leading the defensive charge is Kyle Evans who is averaging eight points, 3.1 rebounds, one assist, and an insane 3.1 blocks per game. His 11.9 blocking percentage is 16th in the nation. Elijah Chol also has a 6.3 blocking percentage which is in the top-140, and Jovan Jester has a 4.8 steal percentage which is 33rd in the country as he is averaging 1.4 steals in just 17.1 minutes per game.
On the offensive end, Jurian Dixon is their go-to player as he is averaging 15.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 44.1% from the floor and 44% from three-point. Derin Saran is right there at 12.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.3 steals while shooting 43.7% overall.
This week they’ll have another test as they take on Long Beach State at home, then travel to Hawaii on Saturday.
Georgia Southern
12/22/25 KenPom: 214th
01/05/26 KenPom: 211th
The Georgia Southern Eagles are quietly in the middle of a nine-game winning streak while starting off 4-0 in the Sun Belt. Their conference wins including Georgia State 90-67, James Madison 96-92, Coastal Carolina 82-81, and Old Dominion 93-86.
The driver of their success thus far is their offense. They’ve scored 90+ seven times and 80+ in all but five games and they lost four of those five. They rank 149th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 237th in three-point shooting percentage, 156th in two-point shooting percentage, 68th in steal percentage, 30th in non-steal turnover percentage, 32nd in turnover percentage, and 41st in free-throw attempt vs field goal attempts. This isn’t a team that’s going to shoot lights out against you, rather they will force you to foul and they’ll beat you at the free-throw line.
Spudd Webb has been the the leader of this team as he is averaging 16.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, three assists, and 1.9 steals while shooting 51.4% overall and 30.4% from three-point. His 123.3 offensive rating is in the top-320 in the country, while his 61% true shooting percentage is in the top-260. His true strength is getting to the free-throw line. He has a 58 free-throw rate which is in the top-140 and he draws over five fouls per game.
Defensively, they leave a lot to be desired. They rank just 280th in overall adjusted efficiency, 78th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 211th in opponent two-point percentage, and in the high-100 to low-200 range in remaining key categories.
While the Sun Belt as a whole is a bit down once again compared to recent years, it’s still solid overall as it ranks 20th. Georgia Southern is the type of team that could give a team a scare in March Madness. Keep your eyes on them to see if they can continue to build momentum.
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Cooling Down
Northern Colorado
12/22/25 KenPom: 167th
01/05/26 KenPom: 170th
The Northern Colorado Bears have cooled off after their red hot 9-1 start. Over their last five games, they are just 1-4 and 0-2 in the Big Sky to start off their conference slate. Their one win was over Colorado 86-81, but they dropped back-to-back road games this week to Montana State 89-75 and Montana 88-79.
Offensively, they are still performing well. The lowest they’ve scored during this stretch was 75 points. They are 59th in effective field goal percentage, 50th in two-point shooting percentage, and 75th in free-throw percentage.
While they are stout offensively, there is a lot of room for improvement on the defensive end. In fact, they rank 365th in opponent turnover percentage, 358th in opponent free-throw percentage, 359th in opponent block percentage, and 365th in opponent steal percentage.
Let’s look at their four losses:
Texas Tech shot 60% overall, 43% from three-point, and had just three turnovers
Denver shot 53% overall, 53% from three-point, 90% from the line on 20 attempts, and had nine turnovers
Montana State shot 52% overall, but had just seven turnovers
Montana shot 44% overall and 35-38 from the line
The trend right now is either they can’t keep other teams off the free-throw line, and they can’t contest shots or force turnovers.
They’ll look to rebound against Idaho State and Weber State this week, both at home.
UC Santa Barbara
12/22/25 KenPom: 153rd
01/05/26 KenPom: 165th
The Gauchos had a lot of hype coming into the season and they started off 8-2 with just two losses to Loyola Marymount in overtime and Nevada on the road. However, they’ve now dropped four out of their last five games and they are just 2-2 in the Big West. This week, they lost to Cal State Fullerton 95-84 and Cal State Northridge 74-65 both on the road.
They are in a very similar predicament to Northern Colorado as they are stout offensively, but their defense is causing the gaps that opponents are exploiting. They rank 111th in offensive adjusted efficiency, but just 259th on the defensive end:
290th in opponent effective field goal percentage
353rd in opponent free-throw attempt vs field goal attempts
319th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
249th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
290th in opponent blocking percentage
Right now, the issue for the Gauchos is consistency. When they score 70+ points in a game this season, they are 9-2. For a team that is offensively talented, they can’t afford to not shoot well as they defense cannot make up for the difference on the court.
Looking at this cold stretch, they lost to Utah Valley 68-53 and Green Bay 67-64. They bounced back with 79 points and 84 points in the next two games, but well back to 65 against CSUN.
This is a talented team that will surely rebound, and they’ll look to do so against UC Davis this Thursday at home.
One to Watch
Charleston Southern
12/22/25 KenPom: 244th
01/05/26 KenPom: 229th
The Charleston Southern Buccaneers haven’t won more than ten games since the 2019-202 season, however, they have already surpassed ten as they sit at 11-6 and in the top-230 of KenPom. They have won six out of their last seven games, including an impressive 77-72 win over Richmond on the road. This week, they kept it going against Gardner Webb 89-79 and UNC Asheville 86-83.
James Madison transfer Brycen Blaine has been phenomenal thus far. He is averaging 17.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 41.4% from the floor and 37.3% from beyond the arc. He is 53rd in possession usage, and 191st in defensive rebounding percentage. Right behind him is A’lahn Sumler who is averaging 15.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 49.4% shooting and 41.4% from three-point. He ranks 256th in possession usage, 333rd in assist rate, and 107th in three-point shooting.
The Buccaneers aren’t necessarily dominating on either offense or defense as they are 223rd in overall adjusted efficiency in both categories. They are 100th in effective field goal percentage and 31st in opponent effective field goal percentage. Shooting wise, they are 115th in three-point shooting, 113th in two-point shooting, 110th in opponent three-point shooting, and 20th in opponent two-point shooting.
They have some tough losses including Alabama A&M and Lindenwood, but they also only lost by 12 to South Carolina. This week, they have a couple of good tests to keep an eye on as they’ll take on Winthrop on the road and High Point at home.
Around the College Basketball World
Here is an interesting article I read this week around college basketball:
The defensive efficiency gaps you're highlighting for Northern Colorado and UC Santa Barbara are telling. When a team ranks in the high 300s in opponent steal and turnover percentages, its basically handing posessions back without forcing any friction. I always find it intresting how offense-first mid-major teams can ride hot shooting early, but once conference play starts the variance evens out and defense becomes the real separator.
Thanks for the shout - glad you found it interesting!