Conference Tournaments: Who's Punched Their Tickets?
As chaos has erupted across college basketball among the non-power conference tournaments, Tennessee State is headed back for the first time in 30 years and Queens is headed for the first time ever.
We are now less than one week away from Selection Sunday and we already have six bids punched to the NCAA Tournament: Tennessee State (Ohio Valley), Long Island (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit League), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), High Point (Big South), and Queens (Atlantic Sun).
There’s been plenty of chaos throughout college basketball. Belmont was the favorites in the Missouri Valley, but they were bounced in their first game. UNC Wilmington and Charleston were both eliminated in the quarterfinals. Remember the Sun Belt’s insane conference tournament bracket? George Southern has won five games in a row to make it to the Championship against Troy.
With many more coming this week, let’s take a look at who will be headed to the NCAA Tournament and what chaos unfolded as conference tournaments began last week.
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Who’s Going Dancing?
Tennessee State ~ Ohio Valley
Back in 1993 and 1994, the Tennessee State Tigers punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first and second time in program history. In 93’ the Tigers placed as a 15 seed, then followed it up the next season with a 14 seed led by 11th overall pick in the NBA Draft Carlos Rogers who averaged 24.5 points and 11.5 rebounds.
After going 21-9 in the regular season overall and 15-5 in conference, the Tigers punched their bye to the semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. They ended the season on a four-game winning streak then took down UT Martin 68-55 and Morehead State 93-67 as they dropped 55 points in the first half while holding the Eagles to just 34.
The name you need to familiarize yourself with is Aaron Nkrumah. The 6’6 senior is averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists, and 2.8 steals per game while shooting 43.7% overall and 35.2% from beyond the arc. Against UT Martin, he finished with 19 points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals, while he played more of a facilitation role against Morehead State with 14 points, six assists, two rebounds, and one steal. On the season, he finished with single-digit points just three times and he had as many as seven steals against SEMO when he finished with a stat line of 14 points, nine rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and seven steals.
Northern Iowa ~ Missouri Valley
The Northern Iowa Panthers had an up-and-down season, but they started and finished the year off strong. They started off 6-0 with wins over Furman, UC Irvine, and CSUN. They went on to pick up wins against Oakland and lost by five points of Saint Mary’s. In conference play, they started off 4-0, dropped five straight, then finished the year 6-4 in their last ten games to finished 19-12 and 11-9 in the MVC.
The Panthers’ defense was carrying them as they had a daunting task to win four games in a row as they finished with the six seed which meant they had to play in Thursday of Arch Madness. They went on a run, taking down Evansville 68-59, Illinois State 74-52, Bradley 73-69, and UIC in the Championship game 84-69. When their defense has held teams to less than 70 points, they are phenomenal with a record of 18-7 on the season. They sit at 25th in KenPom for defensive adjusted efficiency.
Their defensive team metrics overall lie at:
23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage
97th in opponent turnover percentage
25th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
3rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage
96th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
46th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage
Typically, a stout defensive team wins Arch Madness and we saw that once again with Northern Iowa who as now won five games in a row. They’ll most likely earn a 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll be a dangerous 12-seed at that depending on who they draw come Selection Sunday.
Trey Campbell was incredible in Arch Madness. The 6’4 senior finished with 23 points against Evansville, 12 with six rebounds against Illinois State, 13 with six assists, three rebounds, and four steals against Bradley, and 23 points with four rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and one steal against UIC.
Queens ~ Atlantic Sun
The Queens Royals punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament with a 98-93 thrilling overtime victory against Central Arkansas for the first time in program history. You couldn’t have asked for much more out of the Atlantic Sun Conference Championship as Camren Hunter went for 49 points on 8-12 shooting from the Bears as they tied it with mere seconds left in the second half forcing overtime. Chris Ashby was just as good for Queens with 34 points on 10-19 shooting overall and from deep (yes this kid took 19 three-point shots and not a single one from inside).
The Royals showed potential from the beginning of the season, losing some close games to Winthrop, Duquesne, while also taking on a gauntlet of a schedule including Villanova, Virginia, Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Auburn. Queens then started on their conference schedule going a percentage 7-0, then dropping four of six. They finished strong, going 4-1 in their last five and then dominated their way from the Atlantic Sun tournament taking down West Georgia 71-63, Austin Peay 90-83, and Central Arkansas.
They don’t run a deep lineup as eight players contribute 12 or more minutes per game, while just seven contribute 20 or more. Five players average double-digits and as a team, their offensive is what’s driven their success. They rank 79th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 20th in effective field goal percentage, 56th in turnover percentage, 65th in three-point shooting percentage, 15th in two-point shooting percentage, and 31st in non-steal turnover percentage. Three players averaging 2.7 or more assists per game.
High Point ~ Big South
The High Point Panthers were once again incredible this season as they finished 30-4 and punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row. Their four losses game against UAB, Southern Illinois, App State in overtime, and Winthrop on the road. They had no problem in the Big South Tournament, taking down Gardner-Webb 81-59, UNC Asheville 75-71, and Winthrop 91-76.
This is one of the more well-balanced teams amongst those that we’ve written about so far as they sit at 63rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 161st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here are how some of their metrics shape up:
50th in effective field goal percentage
5th in turnover percentage
5th in opponent turnover percentage
160th in three-point shooting percentage
64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
35th in two-point shooting percentage
4th in steal percentage
2nd in opponent steal percentage
Terry Anderson and Rob Martin were both their strongest players this season. Anderson averaged 16 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 56.3% overall. Martin averaged 15.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 42.8% overall and 30.5% from beyond the arc. Both players dominated throughout their three games in the Big South Tournament.
North Dakota State ~ Summit League
The North Dakota State Bisons pretty much cruised through the season as they went 24-7 overall and 14-2 in the Summit League. Their largest loss on the season came from UC Davis 80-68, while the rest were close losses aside from a beating from St. Thomas on the road at the end of the season 84-62. Fortunately, North Dakota knocked off St. Thomas in the Summit League Semifinals, setting up a preferred matchup for the Bisons.
In the tournament, they continued to roll past their opponents taking down Oral Roberts 76-65, Omaha 74-50, and North Dakota in the championship 70-62.
This is a well balanced team that ranks 125th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 119th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Driven by efficient shooting where they sit at 92nd in effective field goal percentage, 73rd in three-point shooting percentage, and 128th in two-point shooting percentage, they are also solid on the defensive end. They rank 62nd in opponent turnover percentage, 17th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, and 57th in opponent steal percentage. They do an incredible job of maintaining control of the ball.
Six players average nine points or more per game, while three average at least 2.8 assists per game. On the defensive end, Treyson Anderson features a 25.8% defensive rebounding percentage which is 22nd in the country with a 6.8% block percentage which is 88th. On the offensive end, Damari Wheeler-Thomas leads the team with 14.4 points per game along with 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals. Meanwhile, Andy Stefonowicz leads the team with 9.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists with 1.6 steals while also shooting 41.7% overall and 38.7% from beyond the arc.
This is going to be a dangerous 13 or 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Long Island ~ NEC
Long Island has been a fun team to watch this season as dating back to the non-conference they had some thrillers. They nearly took down Mississippi State, gave FIU, Georgia, and Winthrop all runs for their money as well. Once they hit conference play they went on cruise control as they went 15-3 and finished the season 21-10. In the NEC Tournament, they took down Chicago State 79-75 and Wagner 64-56. The Sharks technically haven’t even finished yet as they play in the Championship game on Tuesday, March 10th against Mercyhurst. Due to Mercyhurst just transferring to Division I, they are ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament (this rule needs to change).
The Sharks are led by Jamal Fuller who is averaging 16.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, one steal, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 52.4% overall and 43.8% from beyond the arc. Malachi Davis who was unstoppable last season has been able to take a step back given that he has more talent surrounding him. Even with that, he’s still averaging 14.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 41.6% overall.
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Chaos
Arch Madness
Arch Madness is traditional one of the most fun conference tournaments to follow in all of college basketball. Just three number one seeds have won the Missouri Valley Conference Finals since 2016 and this year was no different as we had two teams from the Thursday games fighting each other between UIC and Northern Iowa as the five and six seeds.
These two teams weren’t the only story though. Opening night saw nothing but pure chaos. The Drake Bulldogs came into Arch Madness losing nine games in a row, finishing the regular season just 12-19 and 6-14 in the MVC. However, they took down a Southern Illinois team that had won seven of their last ten in the opening round 67-63, then upset the number one seeded Belmont Bruins 100-79 in the quarterfinals. Belmont was 26-5 and 16-4 in the MVC as some were arguing for their potential to get an at-large bid, though those chances were very slim. They’ll now head to the NIT as the Missouri Valley Conference earns an auto-bid to the NIT.
Jalen Quinn was the star of the show for Drake as he finished with 22 points and four rebounds against Southern Illinois, followed up with 31 points, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals against Belmont.
UIC was a team that we had talked about a few times this season during our Heat Check Reports. They finished the regular season 17-14 and 12-8 in the MVC and they had even popped off an eight game winning streak in conference after starting off just 0-4. After a run to the MVC Championship as a five-seed, they fell to Northern Iowa who was a six-seed in another season without the top-seed winning the auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament from the Missouri Valley Conference.
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt adopted a unique bracket style that significantly assists the top seeds in their chances of reaching the Sun Belt Championship and earning the traditionally one-bid conference’s auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. However, if you pay close attention to the updated bracket below, we had quite the story from Georgia Southern:
The Eagles were at one point this season 12-5 overall and 4-0 in the Sun Belt, but things got bleak as they proceeded to win just four games after January 3rd. However, all that matters is getting hot at the right time in the conference tournament and they proved to be a fun story in the Sun Belt bracket. They took down Old Dominion 88-84, Arkansas State 80-77, South Alabama 94-85, Coastal Carolina 96-72, and Marshall 82-78.
On the opposite end of the bracket, Southern Mississippi pulled off a similar feat. They were 11-7 and 5-1 in conference before dropping five games in a row. They bounced back a little bit, finishing 3-1 in their last four and sitting at 16-15 overall and 9-9 in the Sun Belt during the regular season. They popped off three games in a row in the tournament, taking down James Madison 86-80, Texas State 81-77, and App State 86-73. However, Troy took them down 78-70 in the Semifinals to advance to the Championship and end Southern Mississippi’s run.
For Georgia Southern, Spudd Webb has dropped 29 points against Old Dominion and 31 points against Marshall after a strong season where he averaged 15.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.7 steals while shooting 50.8% overall. In the other three games, it’s been all Tyren Moore. He had 25 points against Arkansas State with four steals, then 23 points with nine assists, five rebounds, and three steals against South Alabama, then a 40 piece with five rebounds and two assists against Coastal Carolina.
The Eagles will face off tonight against Troy at 6pm CST.
Other Conferences
UNC Wilmington fell to Campbell 85-70 after going 26-6 on the season and 15-3 in conference. Towson then drilled Charleston 81-56 after a disappointing season while Charleston was 21-11 and 14-4. The CAA now looks to be Hofstra’s to lose.
After winning the Patriot League by six games and going 26-6 on the season and 17-1 in conference, the Navy Midshipmen lost on a heartbreaking buzzer beater from Boston U. Colgate lost as well 76-69 to Lehigh so we are going to see one of Boston U or Lehigh for a change coming out of the Patriot League.
UIC got a bye this year.