College Basketball’s Top Mid-Major 2025 Turnarounds
From Robert Morris to Cal Poly, see how five mid-majors made huge jumps this season and what challenges they now face with the transfer portal.
As the 2024-2025 season comes to an end, there’s plenty of action around college basketball. Between a chaotic coaching carousel, the always insane transfer portal, and drama from a broader conversation of non-power conference schools’ standings going forward it feels like the season has already been over for a while. Yet, the National Championship game is tonight.
Lets take a moment and break from the chaos to reflect on the five most improved teams this year and dive into what drove that success and how they could fair in the coming season!
Use the code “BracketBusters” when checking out at Crow’s Nest Coffee Roasters to receive 20% of your order! Want two bags of coffee shipped to your door every month? Sign up for a monthly subscription here and receive 25% off your monthly subscription!
Sign up for Bracket Busters’ Discord to discuss all things Mid-Major Basketball!
Robert Morris
2024: 304th
2025: 133rd
The Robert Morris Colonials hadn’t finished above .500 since 2020 and hadn’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2015 when they were a 16 seed. Last season, they finished 10-22 on the season and 6-14 in the Horizon League, placing them at 304th in KenPom. This season, Andrew Toole flipped the script for the Colonials as they finished 26-9 and 15-5 in the Horizon League while earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament as a 15-seed. The Colonials gave Alabama a run for their money in the first round, but ultimately fell 90-81.
A 171 jump in KenPom isn’t easy. The Colonials ranked as one of the worst offences and defenses last year, but finished 156th in Offensive Efficiency and 125th in Defensive Efficiency. Toole did so by hitting the transfer portal hard. Key contributors that weren’t on last year’s team include:
Kam Woods (NC State) - 14.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.7 steals
Amarion Dickerson (Mineral Area College) - 13.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1 steal
Josh Omoja (Gannon) - 11.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists
DJ Smith (Bowling Green) - 9.1 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists
Ryan Prather Jr. (Akron) - 8.3 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist
Ismael Piet (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) - 4.8 points, 3.7 rebounds
The only player that contributed significantly this season that was on the team last year was Alvaro Folgueiras. Folgueiras took a huge step forward, averaging 14.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.4 steals on the season. Last year, he averaged just 5.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.2 assists.
The on-going conversation about the transfer portal is that non-power conference schools are going to suffer. Does it make it more challenging? Absolutely. Are power schools just poaching the best players? Absolutely. However, if you want to take one good thing away from it, it’s that other schools are able to rebuild in an instant as long as their coach can recruit. Toole proved just that with Robert Morris.
However, on the flip side…many of these players have entered the transfer portal. DJ Smith, Kam Woods, Josh Omojafo, Alvaro Folgueiras, and Amarion Dickerson have all entered the portal. The only two left on that list are Ismael Piet and Ryan Prather Jr. There’s still plenty of time for them to enter as well.
Toole will be tasked with rebuilding the Colonials once again.
Middle Tennessee
2024: 282nd
2025: 119th
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders were once again so close to the Conference USA Championship game. The Blue Raiders fell to Jacksonville State 70-68 in the semifinals, marking their fourth straight semifinal loss. Following the loss, they headed to the NIT where they took on Chattanooga in the opening round, falling 109-103 in an incredible triple overtime game. The Mocs went on to winning the NIT, so at least they lost to the championship winners in the first round.
Last season, the Blue Raiders simply couldn’t score. They ranked 311th in offensive efficiency, 334th in effective field goal percentage, 315th in 3pt percentage, 338th in 2pt percentage, and 341st in turnover percentage. It was a struggle.
This season, Nick McDevitt rebuilt his team with a focus on maintaining an above average defense with a renewed offense. The Blue Raiders jumped to 129th in Offensive Efficiency, 164th in effective field goal percentage, and 89th in 2pt percentage. They still struggled from beyond the arc, finishing just 292nd in 3pt percentage, but light years better in the remaining categories.
In the offseason, McDevitt picked up the following key players:
Essam Mostafa (TCU) - 14.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals
Jlynn Counter (IU Indy) - 10.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1 steal
Kamari Lands (Arizona State) - 8.1 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists
McDevitt already had some fire power with Jestin Porter and Camryn Weston that he was able to build around. Porter went on to average 15 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.1 teals this season, while Weston averaged 12.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.1 steals.
I was able to catch a few games live this season and I truly thought they could be a dark horse in the Conference USA, but they just caught some bad luck. Now, like many teams across the country, McDevitt is going to be left with a task to rebuild his team from scratch. He’s losing the following players:
Essam Mostafa - Ineligible
Jestin Porter - Transferred
Camryn Weston - Transferred
Jlynn Counter - Transferred
There’s still time to enter the portal, but freshman Torey Alston showed quite a bit of promise. Alston averaged 6.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and one block per game in 20 minutes, while starting 20 games. Kamari Lands is another player that’s yet to hit the portal, and contributed strongly for the Blue Raiders.
I’m looking forward to seeing who McDevitt brings in to see if they can finally bust through and make it back to the NCAA Tournament.
Cal Poly
2024: 339th
2025: 182nd
One of the best turnarounds in college basketball came from Cal Poly and many would have never guessed it. This is Mike DeGeorge’s first year at the helm and he’s continuing the trend of why schools should hire winning coaches at other levels. DeGeorge was the head coach of the Colorado Mesa Mavericks for six years where he amassed a 141-43 record, reaching the tournament five out of six years (including the 2020 cancelled tournament). Now, in one year, he brought the Mustangs out of the pits of college basketball into a budding program in a trending conferences.
The Mustangs hadn’t finished above 200 in KenPom since 2015 when they finished 13-16 and 153rd in KenPom. To do so, DeGeorge ran an action packed offense. The Mustangs ranked 3rd in tempo in the country, 29th in effective field goal percentage, 52nd in 3pt percentage, 30th in 2pt percentage, and 35th in free throw percentage. It did come at a cost, as the Mustangs ranked 347th in turnovers.
What’s truly remarkable is how they finished the season. Through January 18th, they were 6-14 and an abysmal 0-8 in the Big West. They’d go on to finish the year 14-18 and 8-12 in the conference, marking a 8-4 record over the last month in a half. The winning continued in the Big West Tournament as they won two games, but fell to UC Irvine in the semifinals.
Similar to Ben McCollum at Drake, DeGeorge brought over some key pieces from Colorado Mesa in Owen Koonce and Isaac Jessup. Koonce averaged 16.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.1 steals. Jessup averaged 11.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.5 steals.
So far, just two players have hit the transfer portal in Peter Bandelj and Logan McLaughlin. Bandelj is a freshman who had an incredible first year where he finished averaging 10.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 45.7% shooting. McLaughlin averaged just 4.8 minutes across 9 games.
Cayden Ward and Kieran Elliott haven’t hit the portal yet and would be tremendous players to bring back for next season. Ward averaged 7.4 points and 3.8 rebounds as a freshman. Elliott averaged 5.4 points and 3.7 rebounds as a sophomore.
If you want a rising program to buy some early stock in, take a look at Cal Poly.
New Mexico State
2024: 290th
2025: 134th
New Mexico State had a roller coaster of a year. The Aggies finished 17-15 on the season, but twice they went 1-6 in seven games. Streakiness was the name of the game for the Aggies. This was coming after their worst finish in KenPom since 2005 when they finished 271st. However, they showed signs of bouncing back after an anomaly of a year in 2024.
New Mexico State was a defensive minded team, finishing 78th in defensive efficiency while 220nd in offensive efficiency. Scoring was a problem. They ranked 337th in effective field goal percentage, 325th in 3pt percentage, 332nd in 2pt percentage, and 320th in free throw percentage.
Jason Hooten brought in a couple of key transfers in Peter Filipovity from Maine & Zawdie Jackson from West Georgia. Filipovity averaged 13.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists this year, while Jackson finished averaging 10.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and one steal per game.
However, the transfer portal giveth and taketh. They have lost a number of players so far, losing Marvin Cox, Azavier Johnson, Jaden Harris, Carl Cherenfant, and Edward Nnamoko. Fortunately, out of those players, Harris contributed the most at 5.3 points, 2.2 rebounds in 17.6 minutes per game.
In addition to the transfers, seven of their top contributors were seniors this season. Needless to say, Hooten is going to be restart next year with an almost completely new team. However, he’s proven that he can rebuild within a year and I know that the Aggies’ fanbase is itching to return to being consistently a threat.
SEMO
2024: 352nd
2025: 202nd
Similar to New Mexico State, SEMO saw an uncharacteristically terrible year last season. The Redhawks finished near the bottom of the entire country, just a year removed from going to the NCAA Tournament in 2023. In 2024, they finished just 9-22 and 4-14 in the Ohio Valley where they were near the bottom of almost every statistical category except for 3pt percentage defense.
Brad Korn knows how to build teams. In one offseason, he flipped the script and finished with their best standing in KenPom since 2005. The complete turnaround was thanks to a stout defense. The Redhawks ranked 137th in defensive efficiency, 37th in defensive effective field goal percentage, 12th in 3pt percentage defense, and 89th in 2pt percentage defense. It was a fantastic year all around as they finished 21-12, including a ten game winning streak in conference throughout the end of January and February.
However…Korn is going to have to rebuild once again. Key players Teddy Washington and Rob Martin entered the transfer portal. Martin has already signed to High Point, which is a fast growing team outside of the non-power conference schools.
It’s not all doom and gloom yet, as Braxton Stacker, Brendan Terry, and B.J. Ward have yet to enter their names into the portal. If Korn is able to retain those three, they’ll be sitting well going into the next season once again.