Cinderella Isn't Dead Yet, But She's on Life Support
Is Cinderella dead in March Madness? After two straight disappointing NCAA Tournaments for mid-majors, we break down why the transfer portal is the real villain.
We are headed into the Sweet 16 this week, with just one double-digit seeded team left in the 2026 NCAA Tournament in the Texas Longhorns. While some are touting this as proof that Cinderella isn’t dead, but Texas has reached the Final Four three times, Elite Eight eight times, Sweet 16 twelve times, and the NCAA tournament every year since 2010 except for 2013, 2017, and 2019 (exempting 2020). Sorry folks, per Gerry Hamilton of OnTexasFootball, the Longhorns had $5m in NIL (which I will say is low for the SEC), this isn’t a Cinderella story.
Thursday gave us some real hope. Miami won the night prior against SMU in an incredible offensive showing, then Siena was up by 11 on Duke at halftime, Howard was within four of Michigan at the half, McNeese gave Vanderbilt a run, Kennesaw State kept up with Gonzaga, High Point took down Wisconsin, South Florida had a real shot at Louisville but opened up too sluggish, VCU beat North Carolina in an epic overtime game, and Saint Louis destroyed Georgia. It got bleak on Friday as no upsets were produced, though technically Utah State was as a nine seed over an eight seed as they beat Villanova, but the Aggies were favored coming into that one. In what could have been no doubt proof that mid-majors could still win in March turned into a repeat of last season.
With the Round of 32 ending, High Point went toe-to-toe with Arkansas, but fell just short at the end. VCU was dominated by Illinois. Saint Louis played great for the first 30 minutes before Michigan decided to remind us why they are a National Championship contender. Utah State gave Arizona a run for their money, but couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole they dug early in the second half.
One thing to look at too is, among the teams that did advance to the Round of 32 here’s their estimated NIL:
Utah State: Over $2.4m
Saint Louis: Over $3m based on conversations I’ve had. For comparison, I’m come to learn that the estimated NIL Package for next season to keep Schertz is over $7m.
High Point: Well over $2m
VCU: Between $3m-$5m
Trilly Donovan, known reliable college basketball insider, shared on Twitter that all four teams from the non-power conference ranks had around or over $3m, so all of this data ties out to be roughly around correct marks.
What this means is, even for traditional non-power conference teams, you are going to have to shell out some significant cash to get even close to being able to maintain competitiveness. Now the reality is, yes, there is always going to be a sneaky upset…I mean look at what Siena nearly did. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the traditional mid-majors that aren’t funded by a massive alumni base to compete at the same level as those above them.
Now, with a second lackluster NCAA Tournament in a row from the mid-major perspective, we are seeing a lot of discourse online regarding whether or not “Cinderella is dead”. Can we ever see a Loyola Chicago go to the Final Four again? Can we see Saint Peter’s make a run to the Elite Eight? Before I dive in, I’ll just give my opinion now in case you want to stop reading: while I believe this Cinderella is not fully dead, I believe it’s on life support. Let’s talk about why.
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Has NIL Killed Cinderella?
I actually do not blame NIL. College sports have been at a crossroads for a long-time leading up to the ability to make money as a collegiate athlete. Yes, the players would receive free tuition, free travel, benefits on intangibles compared to the average collegiate student, etc. However, their coaches were making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, while players at programs like Kentucky were really taken advantage of given the program was raking in insane amounts of money thanks to 15 kids not seeing a dime of that (now yes, many go on to the NBA or overseas, but you get my point).
The issue is the transfer portal. If you are more than a casual college basketball fan, you are probably tired of hearing this same thing over-and-over again, but the portal is a disaster. It’s a disaster for programs, for players, for coaches, for fans, for everyone in reality. There are no rules, and there are a TON of bad influences on these young, easily misguided players. You can have self-proclaimed agents with no legal or previous agent experience convincing kids to sign over 20-30% or more in commissions in hope of securing the largest contract physically possible, regardless of whether or not that’s in the best interest of the player. Look, it’s nothing for Kentucky to shell out a million to the 10th best player on a roster, but if you could have taken $500,000 from an A-10 school and truly developed, you would increase your potential earnings and potential future professional stock more by going down and making strong money while seeing the floor compared to playing eight minutes in garbage time. However, if you’ve signed to an agent…why on earth would that agent not want you to go to Kentucky so they can cut that larger check?
The reality here is, college athletics open up even more opportunities for these agents. Every year, there is going to be a new pool of hundreds and thousands of athletes that all want the same thing so they could care less if you never go pro because they have another pool of potential players lined up once you’ve run out of eligibility.
I want to flip this script for a second here, having agents is not a bad thing. In many cases, it’s good to have one because otherwise you could be left hung out to dry if you don’t fully understand the contract you are signing. In cases of the top players, you should absolutely have one because if you have a chance of going pro, you need to build a trustworthy relationship as soon as possible. The issue I have is with the fake agents, or in some cases bad inner circles of influences around these players.
With all of these factors combined, we are left with a continuous cycle of players jumping to different teams every year, no continuity, and yet the fans are expected to pay their alma maters or just favorite programs money to build a new roster every season. For what? There is no return on investment other than pleasure for people that are investing in NIL from a fan perspective. If you happened to hit it big and have a plethora of cash to spend? Sure, do what you want. I’d do the same thing for my alma mater if I were in that position.
Until the transfer portal is corrected, the idea of having mid-major Cinderella teams make a return to the big dance is going to diminish with the exception of those handful of programs out there that happen to have some wealthy donors that are satisfied with donation cash with no real ROI.
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What should we do?
The sad truth is, that really there’s nothing that we can do. The answer, in my opinion at least, relies on the idea of contracts for players. I’m by no means against players making money as coaches make millions and programs rake in millions for the top programs. However, if we are going to treat the NCAA as the professional league it is, there needs to be contractual rules in place. Let’s break down an example:
Player: Freshman 3-star recruit that played at Furman
The player signs a two-year contract for $150,000, with a buy-out clause at 50% the value of the total contract.
During his freshman season, he averaged 14 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds
Following his freshman season, his agent receives a call from New Mexico offering 2-years $300,000.
In this example, the player has to make the decision on whether or not to bet on himself. After a successful season at Furman, do you want to risk going to New Mexico for $300,000, but forfeiting $75,000 immediately? Are you going to get minutes, or are you going to ride the bench as the 10th or 11th man? Do you want to play or do you want to get paid?
Now, this example works in two different scenarios. You can imagine that if it’s not the player paying a fee, it’s New Mexico paying the buyout fee. This happens all the time across independent leagues. In many cases, if an MLB team finds a hidden gem out of the Frontier league, they have to pay an additional fee to buy out that players contract. In fact, that’s how the tiny independent teams stay afloat for some teams.
This won’t fix everything, but this would certainly make it a more fair fight for the underdogs in college basketball. If you lose a player, you will at the very least not lose them for free. You’ll gain some value that you can turnaround and spend on their replacement. You are then investing in the development of those players because either you keep them and they turn into seasoned, star players or they transfer and you collect revenue that you can spend on other players.
I’ll end this by saying, this was a very disappointing NCAA Tournament. For what opened with so much promise, we are left with nothing except for the top of the top all fighting. Will that be good for ratings? Sure. Is that good for the overall health of the NCAA? I’d argue no. Look at other leagues that had the same teams over-and-over again in the Championships or Conference Finals/Championships. The ratings and/or super fan support eventually fall off because the some fans gets tired of seeing the same teams every year.
We can only hope that some force comes together to save the sport that we love because right now, it’s hard to stay optimistic about what it’s going to look like in five years.
Solid read. Excellent points.