Can Yale Shock the NCAA Tournament Again?
Yale boasts the longest win streak in the nation and elite shooting. Could the Bulldogs be this year's must-watch Cinderella team?
Last year, the Yale Bulldogs notably knocked off Auburn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a 13 seed. You could say, this sparked the drive behind Auburn being the best basketball team in the country for the entire season this year…okay maybe that’s pushing it. However, John Poulakidas dropped 28 points in the Bulldogs two point win over the Tigers last year. Now, fast forward a year later and he’s looking for more.
Once again, the Yale Bulldogs have the makeup of a team that could be a bracket buster this year. The Bulldogs hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 12 games and are 19-6 overall, 12-0 in the Ivy League. John Poulakidas is leading the team with 19.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on average. Right behind him is fellow returnee, Nick Townsend who is averaging 15.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. They rank 66th overall in KenPom, and looking at the metrics, they are statistically better this year compared to last year across the board.
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Offensively, the Yale Bulldogs check off nearly every box. Here’s where they stand:
49th in Offensive Efficiency
36th in Effective Field Goal Percentage
14th in 3pt Percentage
71st in 2pt Percentage
56th in Offensive Rebounding Percentage
10th in Assist/Turnover Ratio
16th in Assists/game
If you’ve been following Bracket Busters for a while, you’ll know that I’m a passionate fan for teams that stick to the fundamentals and thrive off ball movement. The Yale Bulldogs do just that. They rarely take bad shots, they share the ball at an exceptional rate, all while still blocking out to ensure they are limiting opponents’ second chances.
Out of their eight players averaging 23 or more minutes per game, no player is shooting below 44% from the floor. Not many teams can say the same. Ball control? Not a problem either as just two players average move than 1.6 per game and one player is their primary ball handler, Bez Mbeng who averages nearly six assists per game.
Looking at the results across the season, Yale has scored 90+ points eight times, and gave some power schools scares in a 92-84 loss to No. 13 Purdue and a 59-56 loss to Minnesota. They did lose to UIC 91-79, Delaware 100-94, Rhode Island 84-78, and UTEP 75-74. The UIC and Rhode Island losses are just okay, while the UTEP loss is completely fine as UTEP is competing with the rest of the Conference USA in an ultra-tight contest. The only questionable loss is Delaware, but most teams have a questionable loss or two.
While the Yale Bulldogs aren’t as stout on the defensive end, they are still above average. Here’s where they sit:
112th in Defensive Efficiency
24th in Opponent Field Goal Percentage
21st in Rebounding
27th in Opponent 2pt Percentage
22nd in Opponent Offensive Rebounding Percentage
Bez Mbeng leads the team in steals at 1.8 a game, while the next closest with Casey Simmons at 0.6. Looking at blocks, Samson Aletan averages 1.6, but the next closest is also Simmons at 0.8. The Bulldogs don’t light up the game on blocks or steals, but the do the fundamentals at an above average rate.
As the defensive metrics show, they success on the defensive end don’t always show up in the box score. Five players do average four or more rebounds per game, but it goes beyond that. The Bulldogs’ on-ball defense and ability to block out in the paint is phenomenal. They limit second chance opportunities and turn their defense into offense by forcing opponents into bad shot attempts and crashing the boards.
We just recently talked about the Akron Zips and their potential to be a bracket buster (you can check out that article here), however, the Zips are known for their deep bench. The Bulldogs are the complete opposite. just seven players average 20 or more minutes and that includes Yassine Gharram who hasn’t played since November 24th. They do rank 185th in bench minutes, however, that’s driven by two players contributing over 20 minutes while the next closest averages just 11.
The Yale Bulldogs are on pace to reach their second consecutive NCAA Tournament and their fifth since 2016. James Jones has done an incredible job for this program. Since 2015, he has a head coaching record of 206-95. During that stretch, the Bulldogs have picked up two victories in the tournament over both Auburn and Baylor. Now, this season’s team has the making to pick up yet another tournament win.
Do you think they’ll be a bracket buster once again?