Can the Transfer Portal Help Mid-Majors?
All the talk is about NIL and Power Schools, while many say Mid-Majors will hurt due to the transfer portal. Perhaps it can help smaller schools?
This conversation has been dominating the talk of college basketball since UConn won the National Championship. As the Transfer Portal closed on May 1st, there were over 1,700 athletes who had entered their name in the portal. In the wild west where athletes can transfer freely and NIL money is flowing endlessly, it makes it difficult to see what are the true benefits for smaller schools.
Many will argue that this hurts the smaller schools. As we’ve seen with conferences like the American Athletic Conference, Missouri Valley, and MAAC, many of their star players have left to transfer to a power school and line their pockets with money. It seems bleak if you are a Mid-Major right now. The years of having four year players are over for the most part.
I remember growing up, watching the Evansville Purple Aces have players like Colt Ryan, DJ Balentine, and Egidijus Mockevicius who were all four year players who would go on to set school records. For a Mid-Major like Evansville, it helped build pride in the program. DJ Balentine is now an assistant coach for the Purple Aces and Egidijus nearly made the NBA where he played well on the Brooklyn Nets G-League team before heading to one of the top leagues in Europe. These kinds of players just won’t exist anymore, so if you currently hold a record at your Alma Mater, congratulations. That record will most likely never be broken.
Lets take a step back from the doom and gloom for a minute though. I’ve been chatting with readers of this newsletter, fans on Twitter/X, and even wrote up some thoughts for a college student working on an essay about the transfer portal. It’s gotten me to think about how actually, the transfer portal might present a unique opportunity for Mid-Majors. Let’s break this down.
Power conference schools are not going to recruit high school players any more unless they are McDonald’s All-Americans who are going to be one-and-done players that will be in the NBA. We are seeing high school recruits decommit from these schools to head to a different team where they can immediately play. These power schools are going to rely on the transfer portal every year to construct strong teams filled with players who have proven themselves at a lower level.
Mid-Majors are going to recruit some high school talent, but I believe they’ll rely more on getting talent from power schools. This will consist of athletes that committed at a higher level, couldn’t break the rotations for strong minutes and decided to transfer down so they can play. It’s essentially betting on yourself as a player because there’s no doubt you’ll make more NIL money sitting on a power school’s bench than playing for a Mid-Major (in most cases). Take less money, prove yourself at a lower level, then transfer back up to get a starting spot and more money at a power school. Look at Malik Dia on Belmont. Malik committed to Vanderbilt as a freshman, couldn’t break the starting rotation, so he transferred down the street to Belmont. Dia dominated last season, posting 16.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game for the Bruins. Now he has transferred to Ole Miss where he ranked as the 96th overall transfer in the portal this season per 247 Sports.
Low-Majors are going to rely more heavily on a few groups: high school talent, JUCO players, and the occasional transfer from Mid-Majors. Just a few years ago, many Mid-Major schools would target JUCO kids as a way to immediately gain someone with experience who could impact their team without having to develop much, even if they were playing at a lesser level. This is now going to be passed onto the lower level schools, think the Southland, NEC, Ohio Valley, etc. High school talent will have a chance to immediately shine on these teams, where they would have had to sit on the bench at a higher Mid-Major or power school. They can immediately play and bet on themselves so they can transfer in a year or two to a higher school and make more money. Then you have the transfers from Mid-Major schools who want to increase their playing time or care about culture more. For example, look at Incarnate Word. They’ve picked up two big time pieces from Ball State in Davion Bailey and Jalin Anderson this offseason. These are two players that were drawing interest from high Mid-Majors and Power Schools, but now they are headed to the Southland conference.
Summarizing all of this together, we have a new tiered system:
Power Schools
Top-tier talent out of high school with NBA potential
Top-tier Mid-Major talent
Mid-Majors
Athletes from Power Schools who couldn’t break rotation minutes
Above Average High School talent
Top-tier Low-Major talent
Low-Majors
JUCO & High School athletes
Athletes from high Mid-Majors who couldn’t break rotation minutes
It’s one big cycle.
This is where I’m making the argument that the transfer portal could actually help Mid-Majors. While the development years of players are pretty much over for power schools, there are still plenty of athletes that will be willing to stay an extra year at a Mid-Major to prove themselves. As a result, these are already players with enough talent to be on these teams, so that extra year of development makes these teams more competitive. Combine this with the power conference transfers that want to bet on themselves and get more playing time and you have competitive teams year in and year out. 5 years ago, if my alma mater had SEC, Big East, and Big Ten players looking to transfer there, I would’ve thought you were crazy. However, that’s now a yearly possibility.
The negative of all this is obviously roster turnover. If you have success at a Mid-Major, you are going to have power schools knocking on your door. At that point, the cost of retaining those players is out of budget for any school without Jerry Jones, the Walmart family, or the Tyson family footing the bill.
If you as a Mid-Major fan are willing to embrace this change, it doesn’t have to be a negative thing anymore. Yes, you are going to lose talent. You are going to lose players that you have loved to watch to the portal, but when you lose one, you can gain another of equal talent. Someone who strives for success and wants to prove themselves. That makes them hungry and will make them give 110% to their school because their motivation is winning and winning equals more money and opportunities.
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