Breaking Down New Mexico: Can the Lobos Make a Run?
New Mexico Lobos basketball breakdown: 14-3 start, top-50 KenPom, elite defense. Complete analysis of Erik Olen's freshman-led at-large tournament case.
Death, taxes, and the New Mexico Lobos putting together a strong regular season resume.
New Mexico sits at 14-3 on the season, and 5-1 in the Mountain West. They are 48th in KenPom, 42nd in the NET, 1-1 in Quad I and 3-1 in Quad 2, and 46th per Evan Miya.
When Erick Olen took over as head coach following Richard Pitino leaving for Xavier, most assumed that it wouldn’t take time for the Lobos to win. After leading UC San Diego to a historic 30+ win season, Olen has the Lobos right in the middle of an at-large conversation and competing at the top of the Mountain West alongside San Diego State and No. 23 Utah State.
Let’s break down what has led to such a strong season thus far, who’s driving it, and what they have to do to finish on top of the Mountain West.
The Metrics
The Lobos are 83rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 27th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s a breakdown of their key stats:
Offensive
96th in effective field goal percentage
74th in two-point shooting percentage
187th in three-point shooting percentage
81st in free throw percentage
72nd in steal percentage
119th in blocking percentage
Defensive
45th in opponent effective field goal percentage
44th in opponent turnover percentage
11th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
187th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
27th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage
Looking at their style of play, they have some interesting notes. They are 100thin tempo and 66th in average possession length. They like to play fast, but what stands out the most is the shots they are taking. 33.2% of their points are coming from beyond the arc, but they are shooting just 33.7% overall and sit at 187th in the country.
On the defensive end, they are tremendous at defending on the perimeter. They are just 359th in the country in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts, but they are eleventh in opponent three-point shooting. Their strong guard play is a result of that. JT Rock is the only player over 6’9 on the roster and he plays just 13.2 minutes per game. They want you to take a shot from beyond the arc because odds are it’ll be contested. Here’s what team’s shot from three-point in their last four games:
Grand Canyon ~ 7/27
Air Force ~ 3/18
Colorado State ~ 7/25
Wyoming ~ 9/22
The Lobos rely on being quick both on offense and defense. When pairing the defense on the perimeter with their tempo and strong turnover percentage which sits at 20.1% for opponents, you can start to piece together the analytical picture…play hard, fast, and take the open shot when you have it.
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The Drivers
Jake Hall is leading the charge for the Lobos as he is averaging 14.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists and shooting 46.4% from the floor while draining 40.3% on his three-point shots. Keep in mind, Hall is just a freshman. He has a 122.7 offensive rating which is 327th in the country, while his 57.9% effective field goal percentage is 232nd and his 60% true shooting percentage is 304th. He isn’t going to blow your mind on the defensive end yet, but he has emerged as one of the best offensive freshman in the country. He dropped 20 against Nebraska, and he’s averaging 21.3 points over his last three games.
The Lobos have another freshman that is dominating in Tomislav Buljan. Buljan is averaging 11.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 55.8% overall from the floor. His rebounding metrics are off the charts as he is 17th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 16.7% and 8th in defensive rebounding percentage at 28.8. Buljan is also emerging as a defensive threat in conference play as he has a 3.7% blocking percentage and 3.9% steal percentage through six games in the Mountain West thus far.
New Mexico does have senior leadership in Deyton Albury who has assumed the role as the facilitator. He is averaging 11.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 49.2% overall and 31% from beyond the arc. After transferring in from Utah State, he’s taken a leap forward as his assist rate jumped from 15.6 to 28.1 where he ranks 136th in the nation. Albury features a 26.4% possession usage as he has asserted himself as an important piece to the puzzle for the Lobos.
As a team, they are just 308th in division one experience. Three of the Lobos’ top four scorers are freshmen. If you throw in Antonio Chol who is a junior, but had appeared in just eleven games prior to this season, that’s four of their top five scorers that had little to no college basketball experience. For comparison, only Saint Mary’s (31st) and Duke (6th) rank higher in overall KenPom with a younger team than New Mexico.
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The Requirements
The Mountain West loves to cannibalize itself and this season will be no different. They have a tough matchup against San Diego State on the road this weekend, and they still have to play Utah State twice.
Looking back at their three losses, they fell to New Mexico State 76-68, Nebraska 84-72, and Boise State 62-53. The Nebraska loss is obviously reasonable given that the Cornhuskers are still undefeated as of the publication of this post. Boise State is falling apart as the Broncos are just 9-8 and 1-5 in the Mountain West, like New Mexico State hasn’t aged well either at 9-6 and 2-3 in the Conference USA.
They do have strong wins over Mississippi State, Santa Clara, and VCU. However, they need more. They will play Utah State and San Diego State twice, with a few extra opportunities against Nevada. Outside of those three teams, they need to take care of business against the lower half of the conference like Air Force, Fresno State, and San Jose State. If they could split the series with San Diego State and Utah State, it would all but solidify a solid seeding in the NCAA Tournament come March.
I would say that I think the age of the team will come into play at some point, but that has yet to be the case. On the defensive end, they have yet to allow more than 70 points to a Mountain West opponent, and even in their loss they only gave up 62. The old saying is defense wins Championships and the Lobos have the right makeup.
What do you think? Could the New Mexico Lobos make a run in the NCAA Tournament?