Bracket Busters: 5 Potential First-Round Upsets
March Madness is here! Check out five potential first-round upsets to watch before you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket.
It’s officially March Madness! The NCAA Tournament bracket is set and now you have just a couple of days to pin down your favorite upsets and your ultimate champion. Every year, a non-power conference school emerges in the first round as an upset and well…you’ve come to the right place to help identify those potential upsets! Here are five matchups that you need to know about while filling out your bracket.
UC San Diego vs Michigan
America’s team…erm I mean UC San Diego is officially dancing for the first time in school history! The Tritons are 30-4 and riding a 15 game winning streak. Their notable wins include Utah State (75-73) and UC Irvine (twice). Their four losses came from San Diego State (63-58), Seattle (84-71), UC Irvine (60-52), and UC Riverside (85-81). The only questionable loss being Seattle. What’s most impressive is the rate that the Tritons blew out their opponents throughout the season with thirteen 20+ wins. Here’s the players you need to know:
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones: 19.5 points, 5.5. rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals (57.6% FG, 31.3% 3pt)
Tyler McGhie: 16.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists (42% FG, 38.6% 3pt)
Hayden Gray: 11.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.2 steals (48.3% fg, 42.8% 3pt)
For Michigan, the Wolverines are 25-9 and riding a three game winning streak as they won the Big Ten Tournament. It’s been quite the season for Dusty May as their notable wins include Wisconsin (67-64), Xavier (78-53) in the regular season then Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. Prior to the tournament, the Wolverines hadn’t beaten a top 30 team in KenPom since January 7th, but swept the 19th, 12th, and 13th teams. Needless to say, Michigan is hot right now despite losing their last three of the regular season.
This is honestly, a dream matchup college basketball fans. KenPom has Michigan slightly favored, winning 72-69. Looking at the metrics:
UC San Diego:
57th Offensive Efficiency
50th Defensive Efficiency
32nd Effective Field Goal Percentage
57th 3pt Percentage
31st 2pt Percentage
7th Turnover Percentage
43rd Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage
2nd Opponent Turnover Percentage
127th Opponent 3pt Percentage
20th Opponent 2pt Percentage
7th Steal Percentage
4th Opponent Steal Percentage
Michigan:
47th Offensive Efficiency
14th Defensive Efficiency
51st Effective Field Goal Percentage
198th 3pt Percentage
11th 2pt Percentage
328th Turnover Percentage
17th Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage
266th Opponent Turnover Percentage
48th Opponent 3pt Percentage
14th Opponent 2pt Percentage
240th Steal Percentage
325th Opponent Steal Percentage
I just listed out a ton of different metrics, so what does all of this mean? Long story short, these teams are pretty even. Both are strong offensively in the paint, while UC San Diego has weaker perimeter defense, but the Wolverines aren’t a great three point shooting team. However, the notable thing to take away here is UC San Diego’s on-ball defense.
Michigan struggles with ball control and turnovers and UC San Diego is strong at taking advantage of it (Hayden Gray averages over three steals a game for a reason). For UC San Diego to emerge victorious in this matchup, they have to force at least 10+ turnovers from the Wolverines and turn those into transition points. The 12-5 upset watch is ripe this year, and this is one in particular that I’d strongly recommend considering.
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Colorado State vs Memphis
There is no hotter team in the country than the Colorado State Rams and I believe that’s going to carry into the NCAA Tournament. The Rams are 25-9 while losing just three times in 2025 and riding a ten game winning streak. They have notable wins over TCU (76-72), Boise State (three times), Utah State (twice), and San Diego State (68-63).
If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Nique Clifford, you are missing out on a player that will hear their name called in the first round of the NBA Draft here in a couple of months. In the Mountain West tournament, Clifford averaged 25 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and one steal. The senior has put the Rams on his back and carried them out of what was a rough non-conference.
However, there’s no denying that their non-conference performance is somewhat troublesome. The Rams lost to Colorado, Washington, UC Riverside of note. Their other two losses came to tournament teams in Ole Miss and VCU. The conversation then surrounds the Mountain West and how well can we grade these wins in conference? Last year, the Mountain West under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, but I have a feeling this year will be different.
For Memphis fans, this is somewhat of a worst-case scenario. You suffered a disappointing season last year, followed by some additional drama in the program, and now you work your way up to a five seed just to face off against the best 12-seed (in fact, Memphis is 51st in KenPom and Colorado State is 42nd) in the tournament that could’ve been much higher. Memphis has been hot as well though, winning eight games in a row coming into the NCAA Tournament.. Their notable wins include: Michigan State (71-63), UConn (99-97), San Francisco (68-64), Clemson (87-82), and Ole Miss (87-70).
Looking at the Metrics:
Colorado State:
Tempo 252nd
23rd Effective Field Goal Percentage
52nd 3pt Percentage
26th 2pt Percentage
Memphis:
Tempo 27th
63rd Effective Field Goal Percentage
18th 3pt Percentage
140th 2pt Percentage
Defensively, both teams matchup well. Memphis has issues with giving up offensive rebounds, but the Rams rank 279th in offensive rebounding. Outside of those outliers, these two teams are pretty evenly matched across the board with Memphis being a better three-point shooting team and Colorado State being a better inside scoring team.
What this is going to boil down to is, can Memphis contain Nique Clifford? If Tyrese Hunter could comeback for the Tigers, that’d be huge, but regardless, if Clifford goes for 25+ the Rams will be moving onto the next round.
Drake vs Missouri
The Drake Bulldogs have been an incredible story all year long. From the hiring of Ben McCollum, to the recruiting of his crew from division II, to now a 30-3 record, the Missouri Valley Conference title, and a date with Missouri in the NCAA Tournament. The Bennett Stirtz legacy continues.
The Bulldogs have notable wins over Vanderbilt (81-70), Kansas State (73-70), Miami (80-69), and countless solid non-power conference schools. Their three losses came from UIC (74-70), Murray State (66-59), and Bradley (61-59).
For Missouri, the Tigers are 22-11 with notable wins over Kansas (76-67), Florida (83-82), and Alabama (110-98). The Tigers looked like they could be a top team in the SEC as they were 20-6 as of February 19th, however, they stumbled the last few weeks of the season as they are just 2-5 over their last seven games.
This matchup is going to be a fan favorite as many across college basketball have heard the stories of Ben McCollum and Bennett Stirtz, however, the metrics back up that the Drake Bulldogs can pull off this first round upset.
Drake:
76th Offensive Efficiency
58th Effective Field Goal Percentage
110th 3pt Percentage
56th 2pt Percentage
11th in FTA/FGA
364th Tempo
46th Defensive Efficiency
1st in Defensive Steal Percentage
Missouri:
73rd Defensive Efficiency
155th Opponent 3pt Percentage
186th Opponent 2pt Percentage
238th Opponent FTA/FGA
348th Opponent Free Throw Percentage
121st Tempo
This is a Missouri team that has a strong offense (5th in Offensive efficiency and top 36 in 3pt and 2pt percentage), but has holes in their defense. They like to speed up the game and the Drake Bulldogs are a polar opposite. They frustrate their opponents by slowing down the game and playing at their pace while providing lockdown defense. Their fundamentals are infuriating for opponents who play more “modern” styles of basketball.
My one fear is, Drake has a history of starting off slow and coming back from behind. Missouri has an incredible offense and putting aside that they are 2-5 in their last seven, if the Tigers open up a 10+ lead in the first half, the Bulldogs are going to have a hard time pulling it back in.
Regardless, we are inline for an incredible game and Bennett Stirtz is going to get an opportunity to show everyone on the big stage what he is capable of.
High Point vs Purdue
The High Point Panthers won the Big South Tournament and are coming into their first NCAA Tournament in school history at 29-5. Their five losses came from Missouri State (71-61), UNC Greensboro (72-68), Norfolk State (77-74), UNC Asheville (103-99), Longwood (82-80). On the surface for fans who haven’t followed the Panthers, you’d see these losses and think “how can they beat Purdue?” The only true bad loss was to Missouri State as no other loss was by more than four points and each team either won their conference or finished at the top. Their notable wins were UAB (68-65) & North Texas (76-71). Additionally, the Panthers are coming in on a 14-game winning streak.
Purdue fans should familiarize themselves with the following players:
Kezza Giffa: 14.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists (44% FG, 31.2% 3pt)
Dmaurian Williams: 13.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists (46.9% FG, 39.8% 3pt)
Kamari Hamilton: 13.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists (52.3% FG, 32.9% 3pt)
Bobby Pettiford: 8.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists (59.1% FG, 42.1% 3pt)
Purdue has of course had an incredible season. The Boilermakers are 22-11 and 19th in KenPom with wins over Alabama (87-78), Maryland (83-78), and Michigan (81-64). However, the Boilermakers struggled mightily to end the season as they went 3-6 in their last nine games.
Momentum aside, I believe the metrics favor a potential upset here:
High Point:
25th Offensive Efficiency
12th Effective Field Goal Percentage
51st Turnover Percentage
60th Offensive Rebound Percentage
51st 3pt Percentage
15th 2pt Percentage
8th Steal Percentage
60th Block Percentage
Purdue:
63rd Defensive Efficiency
242nd Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage
27th Opponent 3pt Percentage
350th Opponent 2pt Percentage
336th Opponent Block Percentage
163rd Opponent Steal Percentage
Purdue’s offense is strong and doesn’t need to be highlighted here, while High Point’s defense isn’t bad, but it isn’t their strong suit. Nothing is stopping Braden Smith from picking apart the Panther’s defense. However, I fully believe what makes this matchup appealing is the fact that Purdue struggles on the defensive end. High Point is one of the most prolific finishing teams inside the arc in the country, and they are strong with on-ball defense being able to rack up steals and blocks. Purdue has been exposed with the loss of Daniel Jacobsen early in the year, and I think over all the 13-seeds, High Point is the one that matches up the best with the Boilermakers for an upset watch.
Regardless, we are going to see a lot of points scored in this game and it’s going to be a fun one to watch.
Yale vs Texas A&M
The Yale Bulldogs pulled off a huge upset against Auburn in the last NCAA Tournament as a 13-seed and they have a chance to repeat history this year against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are 22-7 and have lost just once in 2025 against Harvard, 74-69. Their non-conference was shaky, as they finished 7-6, with losses to UIC (91-79), Purdue (92-84), Minnesota (59-56), Delaware (100-94), Rhode Island (84-78), and UTEP (75-54). Six losses, but all close. Their notable wins are Akron (74-58), Princeton (three times), and Cornell (three times). Here’s the players you need to know:
John Poulakidas: 19 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists (44.9% FG, 40.2% 3pt)
Nick Townsend: 15.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists (52.7% FG, 48.1% 3pt)
Bez Mbeng: 13.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.9 steals (44.4% FG, 35.4% 3pt)
For Texas A&M, the Aggies started off 20-5 on the season and 9-3 in the SEC, but fell apart the last few weeks. The Aggies are just 2-6 over their last eight, but one of those two wins was against Auburn (83-72), with the other being LSU. Their performance since the middle of February makes it incredibly difficult to gauge considering that win over Auburn, but looking at their notable wins: Texas Tech (72-67), Purdue (70-66), Auburn, and Mizzou (67-64).
Let’s look at the Metrics:
Yale:
59th Offensive Efficiency
117th Defensive Efficiency
41st Effective Field Goal Percentage
9th 3pt Percentage
89th 2pt Percentage
19th Turnover Percentage
88th Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage
253rd Opponent Turnover Percentage
172nd Opponent 3pt Percentage
44th Opponent 2pt Percentage
30th Steal Percentage
306th Opponent Steal Percentage
Texas A&M
44th Offensive Efficiency
9th Defensive Efficiency
317th Effective Field Goal Percentage
317th 3pt Percentage
293rd 2pt Percentage
249th Turnover Percentage
58th Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage
54th Opponent Turnover Percentage
154th Opponent 3pt Percentage
27th Opponent 2pt Percentage
334th Steal Percentage
73rd Opponent Steal Percentage
This is a defensive first Texas A&M team. Offensively, they rely on second chance points as they are 1st in the country in offensive rebound percentage. The truth is, they miss a lot of shots, but they give themselves multiple chances on the offensive end thanks to their ability to block out and smother teams on the defensive end.
For Yale, this is a highly potent offense. That comes at a cost of their defensive abilities, but they are still above average and sit at 44th in 2pt percentage. The notable factor that stands out to me is similar to the UC San Diego and Michigan matchup. Texas A&M is capable of turning the ball over and Yale can take full advantage of that. A&M also isn’t incredible at guarding the perimeter, while Yale is 9th in the country.
The keys of the game for Yale will be to not let up off the gas and force A&M turnovers. Can you turn those turnovers into transition points and can you find open threes? The defensive pressure is going to match no other team they’ve faced this year outside of Purdue, meanwhile Texas A&M is battle tested with the 5th toughest strength of schedule.
For A&M, if they can cut off Poulakidas and Townsend they are going to be cruising to the round of 32. Out of the five upsets I’ve listed here to watch, I’m the least confident in this one, but I think it’s important to highlight because Yale’s offense has the capability of carrying them to yet another tournament win.