Basketball Heat Check Report: January Mid-Season Update
College Basketball Heat Check with two months until Selection Sunday. Which teams are surging and which are fading? Complete breakdown of all movers.
We are roughly two months away from Selection Sunday and conference play is heating up across college basketball. Teams are extending their winning streaks, expanding their leads in the respective conferences as others are needing to right the ship before it becomes too late.
This week, Miami Ohio continued their storybook run as they remain undefeated at 17-0, Murray State continues their assurgency in the Missouri Valley, Hawaii won on a buzzer beater, Saint Louis continues their march to the AP Top 25, and the A-10 as a whole heated up.
There’s so much action right now across the country, that it’s nearly impossible to keep up. However, we’ve got you covered in this week’s heat Check Report! Check out who’s heating up, who’s on fire, and who’s cooling down!
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Heating Up
Austin Peay
01/05/26 KenPom: 199th
01/12/26 KenPom: 181st
The Austin Peay Governors extended their winning streak to six games this week as they took down Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson both on the road 82-71 and 81-69 respectively.
They are now 10-5 on the season and a perfect 4-0 to start off their play in the Atlantic Sun. Let’s look at their losses thus far:
Wyoming 79-65
Ole Miss 72-65
Tulsa 84-75
Kent State 96-84
UT Rio Grande Valley 63-50
The only questionable loss here is the UT Rio Grande Valley game, but you can chalk that up to just a bad shooting performance. The rest are all solid losses. The issue with their non-conference schedule is, they had to play two-non division one opponents which is unfortunately a common sight these days. However, they did take down a very solid East Tennessee State team that is 4-0 in the SoCon.
As a team, they are relying heavily on their defense as they are 101st in defensive adjusted efficiency compared to just 271st in offensive adjusted efficiency. They are 31st in opponent turnover percentage, 7th in opponent free-throw percentage, and 11th in opponent steal percentage. They do a great job at creating turnovers and limiting turnovers themselves.
Zyree Collins has been one of the best freshman in the country this season among the mid-major ranks. He is averaging 14.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.3 steals while shooting 44.5% overall and 30.9% from three-point. His 31.1% possession usage is 35th in the nation, his 31.2% assist rate is 80th, and his 5.1% steal percentage is 14th. As he develops more of a three-point shot, he is going to become lethal even with his 6’0 size. We’ve seen players like Tyler Tanner at 6’0 breakout, and I see some strong resemblance there.
Collin Parker is a fun story as he transferred in from the NAIA level. He is averaging 16.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 47.6% overall and 39.7% from three-point. He ranks nationally in nearly every single key individual category, but most notably he is 128th in three-point shooting percentage. Despite the lack of offense in their metrics, Parker is a huge driver as he takes 27.5% of the shots for the team when on the floor. Combined with Collins and they take 55.3% of the Governors shots when they are on the court together.
This week, they’ll take on Eastern Kentucky at home, then travel to Nashville to battle against Lipscomb on Saturday.
Charleston
01/05/26 KenPom: 175th
01/12/26 KenPom: 164th
The Charleston Cougars started off rocky this year. They were just 4-6 as of December 10th, but they’ve popped off a seven game winning streak to move to 11-6 and start off 4-0 in the CAA.
This week, they took down William & Mary 88-79 and Hampton 74-70 both at home. It’s been huge to have the team healthy again as Connor Hickman first the first few games of the season and Colby Duggan has returned for the first time all year the last four games. Duggan is already averaging 14 points, three rebounds, 1.5 assists and shooting 48.7% overall and 40.9% from three-point through his first four.
As a team they’ve jumped twenty spots in KenPom over the last month and they are continuing to climb. They rank 149th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 203rd in defensive adjusted efficiency.
Jylnn Counter has been the key piece to the Cougars to help prevail through multiple injuries. He is averaging 15.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 50.3% overall and 37% from three-point. His 64% true shooting percentage is 99th in the country, while he has a remarkable 34.9 assist rate which is 38th.
The Cougars will take on both Towson and Stony Brook this week on the road as they look to extend their winning streak to nine games and potentially move to 6-0 in the CAA. As they have started to regain momentum as players return from injury, this is going to be a team that will be competing with UNC Wilmington at the top of the conference.
Wright State
01/05/26 KenPom: 142nd
01/12/26 KenPom: 136th
After starting off just 5-7 on the season, the Wright State Raiders are now 11-7 and 6-1 in the Horizon League as they have strung together a six-game winning stream. Their loses in the non-conference were all to strong teams in: California, Toledo, Kent State, Butler, Marshall, and Miami Ohio.
They continue to climb in KenPom and they are doing so on both the offensive and defensive-ends. They sit at 140th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 139th in defensive adjusted efficiency. On the offensive end they are 57th in effective field goal percentage, 38th in three-point shooting percentage, and 93rd in two-point shooting percentage.
Michael Cooper has been phenomenal all season as he is averaging 15.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 48% overall and 37.1% from three-point. As just a freshman, he’s emerged as one of the best in his class at not just the mid-major level, but across the country. When he’s on the court, he is taking 30% of the shots for the Raiders.
TJ Burch isn’t far behind as he is averaging 9.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 41.9% overall and 30% from three-point. He is 87th in possession-usage and 261st in assist rate. What’s he’s doing on the defensive side is incredible. He is averaging 2.8 steals and his 7.1 steal percentage is the best in the entire country.
This week, they’ll take on Youngstown State at home as they look to split the season series against the Penguins and extend their winning streak to seven games.
On Fire
UNC Wilmington
01/05/26 KenPom: 122nd
01/12/26 KenPom: 117th
UNC Wilmington moved to 16-2 on the season and 5-0 in the CAA as they took down Northeastern and Stony Brook on the road this week. They sit at 117th in KenPom and a perfect even across offensive and defensive stats.
They are 129th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 124th in defensive adjusted efficiency. On the offensive-end they are living and dying on second chance opportunities as they are 31st in offensive rebounding percentage and the three-point shot as they are 120th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage compared to just 243rd from inside the arc.
I’ve been very impressed by Patrick Wessler. Despite their struggles from scoring inside, he’s had no problems anchoring the paint. This week, he finished with 19 points on 7-9 shooting against Northeastern then 14 points on 7-12 shooting against Stony Brook. On the season he is averaging 12.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 59.5 shooting in just 24.4 minutes per game.
They’ll look to move to 17-2 overall and 6-0 in conference as they take on Campbell at home on Saturday.
Miami Ohio
01/05/26 KenPom: 98th
01/12/26 KenPom: 97th
At this point we sound like a broken record, but the Miami Ohio RedHawks are on fire. This week, they took down Western Michigan 87-76 and then drilled Toledo on the road 87-73 as they move to 97th in KenPom and stay perfect at 17-0.
The RedHawks offensive efficiency is off the charts as they are 8th in effective field goal percentage, 15th in three-point percentage, 16th in two-point percentage, and 3rd in free-throw percentage.
They continue to take a next-man up mentality where someone different steps up nearly every game. This week, Almar Atlason had 21 points, four rebounds, two assists, and one block against Western Michigan. Then against Toledo, Antwone Woolfolk led them with 21 points and six rebounds.
This team is starting to catch the eye of even mainstream media around college basketball and they’ll look to keep it rolling against Central Michigan and Buffalo both at home this week.
Murray State
01/05/26 KenPom: 86th
01/12/26 KenPom: 81st
The Murray State Racers extended their winning streak to eleven games this week as they took down Evansville on the road 79-69 and Valparaiso at home 92-79. They continue to climb the offensive rankings in KenPom as they are up to 55th in overall offensive adjusted efficiency and 81st in the KenPom.
Javon Jackson and Roman Domon continue to be a lethal one-two punch for the Racers as Jackson finished with 22 points & 21 points, while Domon had 19 points and 18 points against the Aces and Beacons.
The Racers are now 15-3 and 7-0 in the MVC. If Northern Iowa, Belmont, and Murray State keep things rolling, we could be talking about a two-bid MVC once Selection Sunday comes around.
They’ll look to move to 8-0 in the Missouri Valley this week as the Indiana State Sycamores come to town on Saturday.
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Cooling off
Boise State
01/05/26 KenPom: 49th
01/12/26 KenPom: 79th
After recovering well from the loss to Hawaii Pacific to open up the season, the Boise State Broncos have slide dramatically since opening up in the Mountain West. They are just 1-4 and in the middle of a three-game losing streak.
This week, they well to Grand Canyon 75-58 and Utah State 93-68 both at home. In four of their five conference games, they’ve scored less than 70 points as a team as their offensive continues to struggle. They rank 234th in three-point shooting, 286th in two-point shooting percentage, and just 278th in effective field goal percentage.
Defensively, they are doing well as they are 44th in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, that’s also breaking down as they game up 81 to Nevada, 110 to San Diego State, 75 to Grand Canyon, and 93 to Utah State in conference play so far.
It doesn’t ever get easy in the gauntlet that is the Mountain West as they’ll take on UNLV on the road and Colorado State at home this week as they attempt to right the ship.
Towson
01/05/26 KenPom: 172nd
01/12/26 KenPom: 171st
There was a lot of hype coming into the season for Towson and things started off well. They were 5-2 with wins over Rhode Island and Liberty, while their losses were to Houston and James Madison. However, they are just 1-4 in their last five as they open up conference play in the CAA, while sitting at 9-9 overall.
Offensively, they are struggling mightily. They are 222nd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 323rd in effective field goal percentage, 360th in three-point shooting percentage, 248th in two-point shooting percentage, and 322nd in free-throw shooting percentage. Over the last five games, they’ve scored more than 70 just once in their win against Northeastern 87-78 this weekend.
There’s plenty of time for them to figure things out, but it won’t be that easy as the red-hot Charleston Cougars come to town on Thursday in the Tigers’ only game of the week.
One to watch
East Tennessee State
01/05/26 KenPom: 127th
01/12/26 KenPom: 116th
Chattanooga and Samford had consistently been dominating the SoCon in recent years, but this season there is a new heavy-weight player. East Tennessee State is 12-5 and 4-0 in conference play as they took down VMI 81—67 and UNC Greensboro 86-60 this week.
The Buccaneers have a lethal three-man offensive punch:
Brian Taylor II
14 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals
49.4% shooting, 35.3% from three-point
Cam Morris III
14 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 blocks
56.9% shooting, 36.8% from three-point
Blake Barkley
13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds
62.9% shooting, 45.5% from three-point
6th in true-shooting percentage at 71.3%
They rank 126th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 40th in effective field goal percentage, 30th in two-point shooting percentage, and 147th in three-point shooting percentage.
On the defensive-end, they are one of the shot blocking and stealing teams in the country. They are averaging 9.6 steals per game and 9th overall in steal percentage, while they are 31st in blocking percentage. They sit at 121st in defensive adjusted efficiency.
They’ll take on Western Carolina and Samford this week as they look to keep the momentum going and extend their winning streak to six games.
#RankTheRedHawks!! Wright State was extremely impressive winning at Oakland yesterday
A healthy Charleston is the best team in the CAA, I'm taking them over the Seahawks or Pride.