Austin Peay's 2026 NCAA Tournament Push
Austin Peay basketball breakdown: 16-6, 10-1 in A-Sun, eyeing first NCAA Tournament since 2016. Complete analysis of Governors' title push.
Since December 8th, the Austin Peay Governors have lost just one game by four points on the road against a tough Lipscomb Bisons team. They are 16-6 overall, 10-1 in conference, and now on track to finish with their highest rating in KenPom since 2019.
They haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2016 when they stunned Belmont in overtime of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Semi-Finals, then took down a strong UT-Martin team to win the auto-bid to the big dance at just 18-17 overall and 7-9 in conference prior to the conference tournament.
Prior to that season, they hadn’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2008, now fast-forward to 2026 and they are not only in the midst of a 12-1 stretch over their last 13 games, but they are positioning themselves to be the favorites to earn the auto-bid from the Atlantic-Sun and break the ten-year NCAA Tournament drought.
Let’s dive into what’s made this Governors’ team so special this season and what they need to do to earn their trip to the Big Dance next month.
The Team Metrics
As a team, the Governors’ defense has been carrying them, but that doesn’t stop them from running an interesting offensive scheme. They sit at 226th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 108th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Their tempo is 82nd and they are 80th in average possession length at 16.6 seconds, which is close to their opponents which is 17.2 seconds.
Their overall offensive adjusted efficiency is weighed down from their lack of offensive rebounding, but they are 178th in effective field goal percentage, 92nd in turnover percentage, 151st in three-point shooting percentage, 189th in two-point shooting percentage, and 42nd in non-steal turnover percentage.
On the defensive end, here’s the breakdown:
177th in opponent effective field goal percentage
51st in opponent turnover percentage
120th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
91st in opponent free throw attempt/field goal attempt
86th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
249th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
44th in opponent free throw shooting percentage
14th in opponent steal percentage
324th in opponent blocking percentage
Let’s put all of these metrics together. Two things that stand out to me is their ability to control the ball and limiting their opponents’ opportunities at the free throw line. They have three players ranked nationally in turnover rate, and that doesn’t account for some growth in key players that we’ll talk about shortly. Coupled with the ability to box out and limit offensive rebounding opportunities, it’s a perfect blend. People can’t get turnovers off them and they certainly can’t get steals.
Through playing at a much faster pace compared to most teams, they are willing to give up some points in the paint. Did you notice the huge disparity between their opponents’ three-point shooting and shooting inside the arc? 86th and 249th is a huge gap. However, if you are playing up tempo, people are going to be able to drive inside and have more opportunities in the paint. Where they thrive is, cutting off that lane and then forcing their opponents to run offense around the perimeter where they are suffocated.
While watching the second half of their 87-76 win against Lipscomb I noticed the Governors can come at you fast. At the 14:31 mark they were tied at 52-52 a piece, but next thing you know it was 72-56 within six minutes of game time. Lipscomb is a team that lives beyond the arc as they are 61st in three-point shooting percentage, so Austin Peay cut them off and then proceeded to win in the game of tempo.
After having watched multiple games of Austin Peay this season, one area that isn’t defined by metrics that I’d like to see them improve on is closing out games. Against Lipscomb, they were up 16 with 2:29 to go, but the Bisons started to press and the Governors got out of sorts. Against West Georgia, they were up 74-65 with 2:12 to go, but won by just three. Against Eastern Kentucky they were up 18 points with 2:29 to go…the game finished at 90-82. That’s a 21-11 Colonels run in just two and a half minutes. Regardless, the Governors have found a way to get it done at 10-1, but those three games are their last three games, so it’s something that will need to be ironed out before it ends up biting them in the conference tournament.
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Key Players
Collin Parker
Collin Parker transferred in from NAIA Columbia College where he spent four seasons and was named an All-American in his last two seasons. He’s had no issue translating his game to the Division I level. Parker is averaging 16.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 48.9% overall and 41.8% from deep. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 28.3 points, nine rebounds, 3.7 assists, and one steal.
Looking at his metrics, he features a 121.4 offensive rating, 60.6% true shooting percentage, 20.8 assist rate, 18.9% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 24.9% possession usage. From outside, his 44.4% shooting against Division I teams is 64th in the country. Against Atlantic Sun teams, he has a ridiculous 90% free throw shooting percentage on 40 attempts.
Zyree Collins
Zyree Collins has emerged as one of the best freshman in not just the non-power conference ranks, but the entire country. He is averaging 13.8 points, three rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.3 steals per game while shooting 44.4% overall and 34.3% from three-point. He features a 28% possession usage, 27.3 assist rate, 4.7% steal percentage (15th in the nation), and he draws 5.2 fouls per game, giving him a strong 44.8 free throw rate which is 315th overall.
In conference play he has stepped up his three point shooting. He’s currently draining 46.2% of his shots from beyond the arc, which is 6th best in the Atlantic Sun. He’s the type of player that even when he doesn’t explode for 20+ points, he is consistently giving you 12-15 points per game and facilitating the offense.
One area that I’ve seen him grow tremendously in as the season has gone on is his playmaking. In 2025, he was averaging roughly 2.5 turnovers per game. Since the turn of the new year, he’s dropped that to just 2.1 per game and over his last three he’s averaging four assists to just one turnover while shooting 4-5 from three-point. He’s going to become a household name for college basketball fans over the next couple of years.
Rashaud Marshall
Rashaud Marshall started his career at Ole Miss, then landed at Arkansas State last year, and now he’s emerged with his best season of his career for the Governors. He’s averaging 13.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, one assist, one steal, and one block per game while shooting 64.4% from the floor.
Marshall has a 123.5 offensive rating (261st), 64.2% effective field goal percentage (30th), 65.1% true shooting percentage (54th), 10.3% offensive rebounding percentage (231st), 3.9% block percentage (309th), and he is 143rd in two-point shooting percentage. He’s a bit of a do-it-all type player that’s highly efficient at scoring in the paint.
In conference play, he is averaging 15.1 points, but he has really taken off over his last six games. During that span, he’s averaging 19 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, one block, and 1.3 steals while shooting an insane 70.6%.
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What’s Next?
The Governors have seven games remaining with a couple of tough matchups against Queens on the road and Central Arkansas who will be traveling to Clarksville. Their resume isn’t good enough to earn an at-large bid, so the Governors are going to need to keep building cushion.
Central Arkansas, Lipscomb, and Queens are going to be nipping at their heels as the Bears sit at 8-2, 1.5 games out, while the Bisons & Royals are 8-3 and two games out of first place. Lipscomb’s main games come against Queens on the road and Central Arkansas at home, similarly to Austin Peay. While the Central Arkansas plays five of their last eight games on the road where they have struggled to just a 2-9 record. Queens arguably has the toughest schedule remaining among the four teams as they take on Lipscomb, Central Arkansas, and Austin Peay, but they do have favorable matchups against North Florida, North Alabama, West Georgia, and Eastern Kentucky while playing just three games on the road.
It’s going to be a tough battle coming down the stretch over the next month, but the important thing for Austin Peay is going to be closing out games. I highlighted this in the Team Metrics section, but they’ve flirted with fire recently. Looking at games against lesser talent, they beat Jacksonville by three, EKU by two and eight (should have been more), Stetson by eight, and West Georgia by three. They need to take care of business and avoid any trap games like Bellarmine on the road considering they may need the extra cushion while travelling to Queens.
What do you think? Will Austin Peay win the Atlantic Sun and return to the NCAA Tournament this season?