Arch Madness Preview: Tournament Chaos Begins
The Missouri Valley Tournament is here! See game previews, predictions, and potential bracket busters in this year’s Arch Madness.
Conference tournament season is officially upon us with many conferences already underway. The legendary Arch Madness kicks off today with Indiana State and Southern Illinois kicking things off on the Thursday slate.
Arch Madness has gotten its name for a reason. The Missouri Valley has often been an unpredictable conference with non-one seeded teams coming out with the conference tournament champions title quite often. In fact, it’s happened three years in a row and eight out of the last ten seasons. Eight times. EIGHT! It’s chaos and it’s glorious.
This season, all eyes are on the Drake Bulldogs who come in with an at-large resume at 27-3 on the season and 17-3 in conference. Bradley isn’t far behind with the two seed, sitting at 24-7 and 15-5. Northern Iowa and Belmont claimed the three and four seeds, in which all four teams listed with the top four seeds will earn a bye to the quarterfinals.
Looking at Thursday, we have some intriguing matchups:
No. 8 Southern Illinois vs No. 9 Indiana State at 12pm CT
No. 5 Illinois State vs No. 12 Missouri State at 2:30pm CT
No. 7 Murray State vs No. 10 Evansville at 6pm CT
No. 6 UIC vs No. 11 Valparaiso at 8:30pm CT
Photo: Illinois State Athletics
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Southern Illinois vs Indiana State
Southern Illinois emerged as a surprise team in the Missouri Valley after losing star player Elijah Elliott to a season-ending injury. The Salukis reached a 7-7 record after going on a 7-2 stretch over nine games. It was a much different stuff to end the season as the Salukis have one just one of their last six games, including a 95-77 blowout loss to Indiana State in the final game of the regular season. However, the Sycamores haven’t faired much better. They are just 2-5 over their last seven games.
Keys of the game:
Silencing Kennard Davis Jr.
Davis Jr. has been averaging 22.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists over his last four games. For the Sycamores to win, they’ll have to hold Davis Jr. down, however, they can’t forget about Ali Dibba.
Limiting the Sycamores 3pt Shots
Indiana State sits at 118th in 3pt shooting, while SIU holds opponents to 36.3% from beyond the arc which is good enough for…314th. If SIU can hold down the Sycamores from outside, they can control the paint.
The winner of this game will have a date with the number one seed, the Drake Bulldogs on Friday.
Illinois State vs Missouri State
Illinois State claimed the five seed in Arch Madness in a season that’s been quite a roller coaster. Similar to how Bradley was streaky last season, the Redbirds have popped off winning and losing streaks all year long. However, they’ve been hot as of late, winning three of their last four.
Illinois State took down Missouri State in both games this season, winning 74-68 at home and 70-68 on the road.
Missouri State’s last season in the Missouri Valley was certainly one to forget. They finished on a five game losing streak and just 9-22 on the season (2-18 in the MVC). Their two wins, both at home were somewhat random blowouts over Murray State and Evansville. It’s worth nothing that their latest five game losing streak hasn’t been all blowouts: five to UIC, two to Valpo, two to Illinois State, nine to Belmont, and eight to Drake in overtime.
Keys of the game:
Chase Walker re-emerges
Illinois State has won three of their last four, but Walker is averaging just nine points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists during that stretch. If Walker is able to get hot, it’ll be hard to take down the Redbirds.
Limiting Illinois State’s shooting
The Redbirds rank 27th in 3pt percentage and 24th in 2pt percentage. Missouri State offensively struggles, but they can give themselves a chance if they keep Illinois State to less than 70. In their last five games, they’ve kept teams close, but haven’t scored more than 68 themselves.
The winner of this game will take on Belmont on Friday.
Murray State vs Evansville
It’s been an odd season for these two teams, so it’s fitting they face off in the first round of Arch Madness.
Evansville struggled mightily in the non-conference, but found their footing in the Missouri Valley. After a 3-8 non-conference performance, they reached a 6-6 record in conference on February 2nd. However, they’ve won just twice since then and finished 11-20, 8-12 in the MVC. For the Aces, they’ve battled injuries all year as star freshman Gabriel Pozzato missed a significant amount of time at the beginning of the season, only for Cam Haffner who was named one of the conference’s most improved players to get hurt as soon as Pozzato came back.
Murray State looked like they could be a dark horse in the Missouri Valley, starting off 10-7 and 4-2 in the MVC, however, a huge slump would burden them. From that point, they had a 1-6 stretch that sunk them to just 11-13, and 5-8 in conference. The Racers have played better over the last few weeks, going 4-3 including a couple of close loses like a two point Bradley loss on the road in overtime.
Honestly, out of the first round matchups, these two have the most potential to be surprise teams in Arch Madness this year. Mostly because both are wildly unpredictable.
Keys of the game:
Controlling JaCobi Wood
JaCobi Wood LOVES playing Evansville. In eight career games, Wood is averaging 10.6 points, but over their last four matchups he’s averaging 13 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.1 steals on 42.8% shooting overall and 36.9% shooting from three point. Nick Ellington is a problem, but Defensive Player of the Year Connor Turnbull can matchup with him well. However, the Aces have to control Wood at point for a chance to win.
Limiting Evansville in the Paint
Murray State ranks 251st in the country in points within the arc, while Evansville ranks 151st from inside the arc and just 340th from outside. Connor Turnbull has emerged as a huge threat in the paint, with Tayshawn Comer as the facilitator and Gabriel Pozzato as a slasher, the Aces find success when they drive low. However, they struggle from outside. If Murray State can clog the lanes and force outside shots, they’ll find success.
The winner of this game will take on Bradley on Friday.
UIC vs Valparaiso
UIC has the makings of being a true “bracket buster” within the Arch Madness tournament. The Flames struggled in February, finishing just 2-6, but prior to February they were 14-7 and 7-4 in the Missouri Valley. They’ve knocked off Drake, Bradley (nearly twice), and Yale for their notable wins. They’ve lost a ton of close games as well, in fact they’ve lost by five or less five times on the season.
Valparaiso was another team that looked like a potential surprise team, but it fell apart. The Beacons started off 10-6 and 3-2 in the Missouri Valley as of January 8th. Since that point, they’ve won just three games as they are now 13-18 and 6-14 in conference. The Beacons struggle on offense…and on defense, ranking no higher than 266th in either three point or two point percentage per KenPom.
Keys of the game:
Limit Cooper Schweiger or All Wright
Wright has been on FIRE over his last four games. He’s averaging 23.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.8 steals during that stretch. Schweiger is averaging 20.5 points, 8.8 rebounds (including an 18 rebound performance), 2.3 assists, and 2.8 blocks during that same period of time. If UIC can hold at least one of these two down, then they’ll cruise to a win.
Controlling the Paint
Valpo struggles defensively inside and UIC has two strong big mena in Sasa Ciani and Modestas Kancleris. Both players are prolific finishers and clean up the glass as exceptional rates. If Valpo can’t keep the Flames out of the paint, it’ll be game over.
The winner of this game will take on Northern Iowa on Friday.
Predictions
Indiana State over Southern Illinois
Illinois State over Missouri State
Murray State over Evansville
UIC over Valparaiso
Game to watch: Murray Sate vs Evansville
These are the closest two teams in terms of competition and both coaches are going to be hungry for a win.
Teams to watch: UIC & Illinois State
As mentioned at the beginning, Arch Madness tends to have spoilers and dark horses. Just because these two teams are playing on Thursday, doesn’t mean they can’t make deep runs in the tournament.