5 Teams You Don't Want to Play in March

Every year 12 and 13 seeds make big upsets in the first round of March Madness, this year you don't want to play McNeese, High Points, Indiana State, Samford, or Grand Canyon.

Every year 12 and 13 seeds make big upsets in the first round of March Madness. Here are 5 teams you don’t want to hear your favorite team draw on selection Sunday.

1. McNeese

2. High Point

3. Indiana State

4. Samford

5. Grand Canyon

McNeese

McNeese is now 19-2 on the season and undefeated in the Southland Conference after their 89-65 victory over Northwestern State this week. The Cowboys are now in the midst of a 14-game winning streak which includes wins over UAB, who just beat Memphis, and at Michigan when the Cowboys upset the Wolverines in Ann Arbor 87-76. Looking at their metrics, the Cowboys currently sit with a 64 NET Ranking and 77 in the KenPom, which are both very respectable considering the Southland conference is currently ranked as the 30^th out of 33 conferences in the country.

The Cowboys are led by TCU transfer Shahada Wells who is averaging 18.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 3 steals again. However, they have great complimentary pieces on their team in:

• Christian Shumate: 12.5 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1.5 blocks per game

• DJ Richards Jr: 11.1 points, 2.4 rebounds per game

• Javohn Garcia: 10.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals per game

Breaking down some of their team statistics, here’s where McNeese currently stands:

• 38^th in Fastbreak Points

• 34^th in Assist/Turnover Ratio

• 22^nd in Effective Field Goal Percentage

• 15^th in Field Goal Percentage

• 7^th in Field Goal Percentage Defense

• 4^th in 3 Point Percentage

  • Behind just Indiana State, Purdue, and Samford

• 6^th in Steals per Game

This is just scratching the surface, there’s many more statistic categories that the Cowboys ranking in the top 50 in the country. Looking at these above, McNeese is an offensive juggernaut, trending near the top in some of the most key offensive categories while also controlling the ball.

This is a team that I will certainly be placing a wager on in the first round of this year’s NCAA Tournament, and they will absolutely be this year’s bracket busters. McNeese is probably going to struggle to keep Will Wade after this season, so for Cowboys fans, I hope you can keep the momentum going, but enjoy the ride.

High Point

Right behind McNeese, High Point has now won 11 games in a row, in which their last loss was to Georgia 66-58. The Panthers are currently 19-4 on the season and undefeated in the Big South, which features some very good Mid-Major programs, including UNC Greensboro, Radford, Winthrop, and Longwood. In fact, High Point had an 11-game losing streak to Longwood which was snapped in last night’s 93-76 win.

Looking at their computer metrics, the Panthers currently sit at 109 in the NET Ranking, and 119 in the KenPom. Their Strength of Schedule is certainly not helping as they played mostly programs that are to towards the middle or bottom half of their Mid-Major conferences. Their four losses came from Wofford 99-98, Queens 74-72, Hofstra 97-92, and Georgia 66-58. Looking at those losses, if they had held on and beat Wofford and Queens, the Panthers would be 21-2 and their metrics would look much better without those losses. Alas, this is the life of a Mid-Major team.

The Panthers are led by Duke Miles, who is averaging 19.2 points, 2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. However, they have 5 players averaging 10 or more points per game.

• Kezza Giffa: 16.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game

• Kimani Hamilton: 15.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game

• Abdoulaye Thiam: 11.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1 assist per game

• Trae Benham: 10 points and 5.1 rebounds per game

This is a very well-rounded team, so let’s take a look at some of their team statistics:

• 2^nd in Free Throw Attempts per Game

• 18^th in Free Throw Percentage

• 1^st in Free Throws Made per Game

• 6^th in Rebound Margin

• 21^st in Offensive Rebounds per Game

• 23^rd in Rebounds per Game

• 14^th in Scoring Offense

It’s very clear that High Point lives and dies at the free throw line. They are the best team in the country in terms of free throws made per game and second in the country in free throw attempts per game. Looking at last night’s win over Longwood, the Panthers shot 16-18 from the free throw line. That tracks well. The Panthers also crash the boards, trending towards the top of the country in offensive rebounds and rebound margin in general. Correlating these statistics together, it’s evident that the Panthers rely on their athleticism and size to get them second chance points at the line.

This is an excellent High Point team in which fans have had to suffer through some rough seasons these past few years. They’ve turned it around and are now one of the best Mid-Majors in the country. People won’t pick them in March Madness, but you should.

Indiana State

The Sycamores are currently 19-3 on the season and 10-1 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Their only three losses have come against #24 Alabama in the second game of the season, Michigan State and Drake. All three excellent teams, so Indiana State has yet to lose a bad game this season. Head Coach Josh Schertz has built an offensive juggernaut in Terra Haute this season, which could lead the coach to his first Sweet 16 appearance in March Madness.

The Sycamores currently sit at #24 in the NET and #38 in the Ken Pom. This is good enough for At-Large potential if a team like Drake or Bradley were to knock off the Sycamores in Arch Madness. In fact, if Indiana State is not in the NCAA Tournament this season, they’d have to be listed as one of the best teams to miss the tournament in recent years.

The Trees are led by a knock-out starting 5, which features Isaiah Swope, Robbie Avila, Jayson Kent, Julian Larry, and Ryan Conwell. Look at the insane stats on these five players:

• Isaiah Swope: 18.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.5 steals per game

• Robbie Avila: 16.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists per game

• Ryan Conwell: 15.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals per game

• Jayson Kent: 13.6 points, 7.9 rebounds per game

• Julian Larry: 10.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.4 steals per game

Most college basketball teams are lucky to have more than one player that averages more than 15 points per game, but Indiana State has three. All five starters are averaging over 10 points per game, plus the team is shooting 51% from the field and 40.7% from 3pt range. This is an elite offensive team. Let’s look at more of their team statistics:

• 47^th in Assist/Turnover Ratio

• 1^st in Effective Field Goal Percentage

• 3^rd in Field Goal Percentage

• 11^th in Free Throw Percentage

• 40^th in Defensive Rebounds per Game

• 5^th in Scoring Offense

• 15^th in 3pt Attempts per Game

• 1^st in 3pt Percentage

• 3^rd in 3pt per Game

This team is one of the best offensive basketball teams in the entire country. Looking at their 3pt shooting statistics, it’s evident that the Sycamores live and die by the three. This is a team that could go very deep in the tournament depending on their seeding. We’ve seen seeds range from the #9 - #11 for the Sycamores. Regardless, the return of the two-bid Missouri Valley could be upon us, and the trees are going to be a scary team in March.

Samford

Samford has their winning streak snapped by Furman a couple of games ago, but the Bulldogs have bounced back with wins over ETSU and Wofford. Samford is sitting at 19-3 on the season and 8-1 in conference, while featuring a #90 Net Ranking and #94 in the KenPom. We recently discussed the rise of Samford Basketball on our YouTube channel, so if you are are interested in learning more about the Bulldogs, check that out here:

Bucky McMillian has assembled a deep team of offensive players, which as led the team to rank as one of the top offensive teams in the country. They have ten players that have player in most of the games this season and average 12 more or minutes. This is an extremely deep team compared to most college basketball teams. Looking at their top players: 

• Achor Achor: 15.8 points, 6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1 steal, and 1.8 blocks per game

• AJ Staton-McCray: 12.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.9 steals per game

• Jermaine Marshall: 10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 2 steals per game

• Jaden Campbell: 10.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 2 steals per game

Now let’s look at their team statistics:

• 4^th in Assists per Game

• 5^th in Bench Points per Game

• 6^th in Effective Field Goal Percentage

• 3^rd in Fastbreak Points

• 13^th in Field Goal Percentage

• 4^th in Scoring Offense

• 5^th in Steals per Game

• 40^th in 3pt Attempts per Game

• 3^rd in 3pt Percentage

• 8^th in Turnovers Forced per Game

This team is very similar to the Indiana State Sycamores. The Bulldogs score a lot of points, they are quick, they shoot quite a few threes, and they force turnovers. The main difference is, Samford has 10 players in the regular rotation, while Indiana State relies mostly on their starting five players to win their games.

The Samford Bulldogs are going to cause problems for any team that gets drawn against them on Selection Sunday. However, the SoCon is a tough league, so Samford must hold on and beat Chattanooga today to keep their sights on the SoCon crown. Keep your eyes on the Bulldogs.

Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon is now 20-2 this season and 10-1 in the WAC. The Lopes only two losses cam to South Carolina 75-68 and Seattle U 86-79. Honestly, they are a couple of possessions away from being 21-1 or even 22-0 this season. They have some impressive wins over San Francisco, #25 San Diego State, Liberty (though that win hasn’t aged well), and Louisiana Tech which recent became a Quad 2 win.

The Lopes currently sit at #47 in the NET Rankings with a 4-2 record in Quad 1 & 2 games, and #62 in the KenPom. The Lopes are arguably one of the most fun teams to watch in the country, led by Tyon Grant-Foster who is averaging 19.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2 steals per game. Alongside Grant-Foster, the Lopes have Gabe McGlothan and Ray Harrison:

• Gabe McGlothan: 15.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1 block, and 1.2 steals per game

• Ray Harrison: 13.9 points, 3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.1 steals per game

Looking at their team statistics:

• 14^th in Blocks per Game

• 7^th in Free Throw Attempts per Game

• 4^th in Free Throws Made per Game

• 31^st in Rebound Margin

• 29^th in Scoring Margin

• 47^th in Steals per Game

The Lopes don’t scream a defensive or offensive juggernaut like some of the other teams on this list, but they are more of a stable and sound basketball team. They have great players in Grant-Foster, McGlothan, and Harrison that has led them to being an excellent Mid-Major basketball team. They can keep up with the best of the best across the country, so this is a team that can absolutely bust brackets in the first round of the tournament.