5 Conference Battles to Watch
With Regular Season Titles on the line, these are the five mid-major conferences to watch heading into March Madness.
We have just a couple of weeks left of conference games, so every game means something more. It affects seeding in conference tournaments, at-large resumes, metrics, etc. There is a reason March Madness was coined the name it has.
Here are five conferences that you should monitor down the stretch with close battles for first place and a bid to the big dance.
Atlantic 10
Per usual, the Atlantic 10 is coming down to the wire. However, you may be shocked to learn that #16 Dayton isn’t the first place team right now. Here’s the standings with just a handful of games left:
Richmond 11-2
Loyola Chicago 11-2
#16 Dayton 11-3
VCU 9-4
Richmond and Loyola Chicago have both been pleasant surprises this season as many projected Dayton to run away with the league. Richmond finishes out the season with Davidson, Saint Louis, VCU, Saint Joseph’s, George Mason. Loyola Chicago finishes out with George Mason, St Bonaventure, Dayton, Davidson, La Salle.
For both these teams, neither of these schedules are particularly easy. For Richmond your walk in the park should be Saint Louis and for Loyola Chicago, you’d hope for the same in La Salle. However, both teams play Davidson and George Mason, while Loyola Chicago still has to get through Dayton.
Dayton finishes out with Davidson, Loyola Chicago, Saint Louis, and VCU. VCU finishes out with Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island, Richmond, Duquesne, and Dayton.
Running through VCU, it’s going to be tough for the Rams given these last five games. They are two games out of first, and this is arguably the toughest schedule among the four schools in contention. Dayton and Richmond are obviously at the top, Duquesne has been getting hot at the right time winning 7 out of their last 9 games. Rhode Island and Davidson are both capable of knocking off good teams.
For Dayton, it’s similar to the other teams here. You are playing two of the top teams in the conference, but you would hope to beath Davidson and Saint Louis.
With the Atlantic 10, it’s hard to gauge and say there is a favorite team to win the title of regular season champions. The top four teams all play each other at some point within the next two weeks, so it’s going to come down to winning the games that you should against the lower tier teams, and then battling it out against the top dogs.
Make sure to watch this one to end the season. The Atlantic 10 is always an entertaining conference to monitor and this season is not a disappointment. The conference tournament is going to be an amazing atmosphere as there are many other teams that can make runs. George Mason just beat Dayton last night, Duquesne is hot, St Bonaventure and UMass are both fully capable of making runs, plus teams like Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island, and Davidson are all capable of knocking teams off as well.
Coastal Athletic Association
It’s been a wild year in the CAA. Charleston is peaking at the right time with their 5-game winning streak, UNC Wilmington knocked off Kentucky at Rupp Arena, while Drexel knocked off Villanova, both for a Top 25 win. With four games remaining, here’s the standings:
Charleston 11-3
UNC Wilmington 10-4
Drexel 10-4
Hofstra 9-5
Delaware 9-5
Towson 9-5
Charleston, UNC Wilmington, and Drexel have the best chances here as they are in first and just a game out. However, the remaining three schools are all just 2 games out, so anything can really happen in the CAA going down the stretch.
Look at their remaining schedules, Charleston plays Delaware, Towson, Campbell, and Hofstra. This is a tough stretch of games, with 3 out of 4 teams being in the 3-way tie for third place right now with 9-5 records. However, the Cougars have been hot with a 5-game winning streak, but 4 out of 5 of the games they have won came against bottom tier teams in the conference. The one solid win was a 10 point victory over Drexel. The Cougars have lost twice to UNCW, and once to Towson, so the regular season title isn’t a given for Charleston.
For UNCW, they finish with a slightly easier schedule in William & Mary, Campbell, Hostra, and Towson. If you are a Seahawks fan, you’d hope to win the first two games, but the last two aren’t going to be a walk in the park as previously stated, both teams are in the hunt still just 2 games out of first place.
Drexel is in a similar scenario as UNCW. The Dragons finish out with Hofstra, Delaware, Stony Brook, and Northeastern. You’d hope to beat the latter two teams, but the first two are right there in the pack just 2 games out.
Looking at the remaining schedules for these schools, it’s going to be purely chaotic. They all play each other in some capacity and literally anything can happen at this point. If you haven’t been paying attention to this conference, you should now because it’s going to be an entertaining next two weeks.
Conference USA
It’s a three-way race for the Conference USA going down the stretch as Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, and Western Kentucky are all within 0.5 a game of each other. Here are the current standings:
Sam Houston 8-3
Louisiana Tech 8-3
Western Kentucky 8-4
Sam Houston finishes out the season with New Mexico State, UTEP, MTSU, Louisiana Tech, and Jacksonville State. Louisiana Tech finishes out similarly with UTEP, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, and MTSU. While Western Kentucky finishes with the toughest schedule in MTSU, Louisiana Tech, FIU, and Liberty.
On the surface, it could be argued that Sam Houston has the best shot at winning the regular season title for the Conference USA as the only challenging game remaining is realistically Louisiana Tech. That game on March 7th could determine the winning of the conference.
For Louisiana Tech, it’s been an up-and-down season where earlier this year in the non-conference they were being considered as one of the top mid-majors in the country. They virtually play the same schedule, however, they do play Western Kentucky which is not going to be a walk in the park.
For Western Kentucky, they play the hardest schedule among these three schools as they play both Liberty and Louisiana Tech in their last four games. Liberty hasn’t had a great conference showing with a 5-6 record, however, they are more than capable of beating top schools. Just a little over a week ago, they knocked off Louisiana Tech in a 65-62 nail biter.
Conference USA is going to be one to keep an eye on, in particularly because each of the Top Schools play each other within the next couple of weeks. It’ll be exciting to see how this plays out in a conference that’s slightly struggled this season.
MAC
The MAC has been one of the most consistent Mid-Major conferences over the years and this year is no difference. There are currently three teams that could all finish in 1st as the regular season champions. Let’s look at the standings:
Akron 11-2
Toledo 11-2
Central Michigan 10-3
Akron was squandered the lead after some mediocre play in recent weeks. The Zips were defeated by James Madison in the Sun Belt/MAC Challenge, then dropped a game to Toledo to tie for first in the MAC. Akron has a great chance to bounce back with more of an easier schedule to finish out the season, however, nothing is a given. They finish with Kent State, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan. Kent State and Ohio are both capable of knocking off the Zips and the remaining teams Akron should handle, but this is college basketball.
For Toledo, they have much more momentum. They also lost in the Sun Belt/MAC Challenge, but you might remember that this was arguably one of the top games of the season in a 109-104 loss to Appalachian State in double overtime. For the Rockets, they have momentum on their side after their win at Akron. To finish out the season, they play Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Miami Ohio, and Kent State. Bowling Green and Kent State could both be capable of defeating Toledo, but you’d prefer to win against Northern Illinois, Miami Ohio, and a struggling Buffalo team if you are a Rockets fan.
Central Michigan has turned it on at the right time. The Chippewas are 8-1 in their last 9 games, 11-2 in their last 13 games, including a 3-game winning streak. This week, they defeated Bowling Green to sweep the Falcons for the first time since 2018. Central Michigan hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2003, so the Chippewas are going to be hungry going down the stretch. They finish with no one that is currently in the top 5 of the conference with, Miami Ohio, Ball State, Kent State, Northern Illinois, and Eastern Michigan.
This is going to be fun to watch as we wrap up the regular season, and for the MAC it’s going to come down to beating the teams you should if you want to win the conference. Each of these three teams play some of the bottom schools in the conference, so you can’t afford to lose those games.
Ohio Valley
The Ohio Valley has no doubt taken a dip in talent and prestige after the loss of Murray State, Belmont, Austin Peay, and Eastern Kentucky all in a handful of years. However, this conference is arguably the most chaotic in terms of conference standings right now:
Morehead State 11-4
Little Rock 10-4
UT Martin 10-4
Western Illinois 10-4
SIUE 8-6
Tennessee State 8-6
There is currently a three-way tie for second place in which each team is just 0.5 a game out of first place. With four games left on the schedule, both SIUE and Tennessee State both still have a chance to take the top spot as well will being 2.5 games out of first place.
For Morehead State, this is heartbreaking, the OVC was truly theirs to take. This is the same Eagles team that should have beat IU at Assembly Hall earlier this season, and as of just a couple weeks ago were 20-5 before starting their three game losing streak which has seen a 1 point loss to Little Rock, a 6 point loss to UT Martin, and a 7 point loss to Southern Illinois.
For Little Rock, this is nothing new. Little Rock is in their second season in the OVC after leaving the Sun Belt, where they secured the auto-bid twice in 2011 & 2016, including a 30-5 record in 2016 for a 12-seed. However, for Western Illinois, this is their best shot at making the NCAA Tournament the Leathernecks have ever had. Since going D1 in 1981 & joining the Summit League (formerly Mid-Continental) in 1982, Western Carolina has seen just 12 winning seasons out of 43.
Looking at the remaining schedules, Morehead has an important game coming today against Western Illinois which will give one of these teams a leg up. The Eagles then close out their conference schedules with SEMO and Lindenwood, which would both be favored for the Eagles. Realistically, if Morehead wins this game this evening, they could almost ensure themselves they win the regular season title.
However, for Little Rock, they finish with SEMO, Lindenwood, Tennessee State, and Tennessee Tech. Ideally, the Trojans would love to finish 3-1 here at least and give them a chance to finish with a slice of the regular season title. UT Martin ironically finishes against the same teams.
For Western Carolina, they have the toughest schedule to end conference play with Morehead State, Southern Indiana, Eastern Illinois, and SIUE. It’s realistic that the Leatherbacks could go 2-2 here with losses to Morehead and SIUE.
There is a reasonable chance the the Ohio Valley has a three-way tie for first place at the end of the season between Morehead State, Little Rock, and UT Martin. Make sure to tune into the Morehead State and Western Illinois game this evening at 7:30pm CDT, it’s going to be crucial for the OVC.