2026 NCAA Tournament West Region Breakdown
Can Hawaii's 'no help' defense slow Arkansas? Will High Point bust Wisconsin? Your complete 2026 NCAA Tournament West Region mid-major breakdown.
Last night’s opening round of the First Four and the NIT both did not disappoint in the least bit. Howard and UMBC went toe-to-toe till the final buzzer, including a very close heavy that would’ve sent the game to overtime as Howard picked up their first NCAA Tournament win in program history. Texas nearly blew the game against NC State as Tramon Mark hit the game winning shot with just one second remaining to send the Longhorns to the Round of 64.
Yesterday we covered the East and South Regions of the 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket and today, we’ll wrap up our breakdown of every Mid-Major game in the tournament! Let’s take a look at the West Region.
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Villanova (8) vs Utah State (9)
It is to be expected that the eight and nine seeds are close to one another with their metrics, but Utah State and Villanova are an interesting matchup where the Aggies actually outpace the Wildcats in the majority of statistics besides being a position lower in their seeding.
Utah State enters at 28-6 on the season and 30th overall in KenPom. They started off 23-3 and 13-2 in the Mountain West before stumbling a bit to end the season on a 2-3 stretch over their last five games. They fell to Nevada and San Diego State on the road, as well as taking their second loss to UNLV. Once they reached the Mountain West Tournament, they rebounded well by passing UNLV, Nevada, and San Diego State to punch their picked to the Big Dance.
Utah State leads Villanova in nearly all of the key metrics, but this will be a close game and the Aggies should be favored for the small seed upset here. If they win, they’ll take on Arizona (unless Long Island pulls off the incredible upset) in the Round of 32.
You can view our full breakdown of this matchup here (or below!)
Wisconsin (5) vs High Point (12)
The Wisconsin Badgers have been an interesting team because they came into conference play lacking a true top non-conference win. They had beat Providence and Marquette, both of which struggled this season. However, they turned it on, taking down Michigan on the road to wake people up. They went on to finish 24-10 before falling to Michigan by just three points in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.
High Point has been electric in year one with Flynn Clayman at the helm of head coach. The Panthers are 30-4 on the season and run a high-octane offense with players like Terry Anderson who is a Bracket Buster in the making. They rank 67th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and in the top-50 of several key categories.
We wrote about top potential upsets with the most intriguing games, including this one earlier this week. You can view our full breakdown of this matchup here (or below)!
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Arkansas (4) vs Hawaii (13)
Oh boy, we have a juicy matchup between Hawaii and Arkansas. A lot of people have the Razorbacks going deep in the tournament because they’ve played very well this season. They are 26-8, 15th in KenPom and won the SEC Tournament by taking down Vanderbilt 86-75. They have wins over Louisville, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt twice, Missouri twice, Texas A&M, and Texas.
Hawaii has been a fun team to watch this season as well. They are 24-8, 108th in KenPom, and competed with both Oregon and Arizona State in the non-conference, losing to Oregon by one point and Arizona State by seven. The Rainbow Warriors run a unique “no help” defense which has resulted in some insane defensive statistics:
42nd in defensive adjusted efficiency
16th in opponent effective field goal percentage
10th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
28th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
22nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage
15th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt
3rd in opponent assist per field goals made
They run with eight players all averaging 20+ minutes per game, but Isaac Johnson leads the team on the offensive end. He averages 14.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 50.3% overall and 31.5% from three-point. He features a 29.5% possession usage which is 74th overall and he draws 6.2 fouls per game which is the 66th most in the country.
If Hawaii wants to try and pull this off, it’s going to all fall on their defense. Offensively, they are just 210th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and they are a liability from outside as they are just 300th in three-point shooting percentage. They are strong inside at 62nd in two-point shooting percentage, but the Razorbacks will certainly be blocking off the lanes. However, if Hawaii can pester them into foul trouble, the Rainbow Warriors are 29th in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts and they score 23.2% of their points from the line which is 38th in the country.
I’ll wrap up this matchup by saying the Coach Calipari is no stranger to falling to a fun mid-major in the NCAA Tournament. While Arkansas runs an incredible offensive system and yes…someone is going to have to guard Darius Acuff in the no help defense, however, if Hawaii can keep their defense strong on everyone else…they could have a chance.
Gonzaga (3) vs Kennesaw State (14)
After the national news of another illegal betting scandal took away one of the Kennesaw State Owls’ best players in Simeon Cottle earlier this season, there were a lot of question marks around how they would recover. They stayed the course, finishing 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Conference USA. As they ended the conference tournament as the six-seed, they took down Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, and Louisiana Tech to claim the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
As a team, they sit at 140th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 192nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. They aren’t going to blow your minds, but they do the fundamentals well. They are 40th in offensive rebounding percentage and 24th in non-steal turnover percentage. They love to live at the free throw line as they are 7th in the country in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt and they score 23.7% of their points from the line which is 26th most in the country.
Sophomore RJ Johnson has taken over as the go-to offensive weapon in place of Cottle. He is averaging 14.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, four assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 45.7% overall and 36.8% from beyond the arc. He is 76th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage and 132nd in assist rate.
Gonzaga on the other hand is 10th in KenPom, 29th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 9th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 30-3 with losses to just Michigan, Saint Mary’s, and the random loss to Portland on the road. They are virtually in the top-25 or top-30 of all key metrics.
If the Owls want any chance to hand the Zags a huge upset loss in the first round, they are going to have to live at the free throw line. Fouling is the Zags one, true weakness as they are 281st in opponent free throw attempts vs field goal attempts. They sit at 215th in opponent free throw point distribution percentage. If the Owls can continuously get to the line while putting Gonzaga in foul trouble, they could make the game interesting.
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Purdue (2) vs Queens (15)
The Queens Royals punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament after taking down West Georgia, Austin Peay, and Central Arkansas in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. The ASUN was a blast to watch these season with a number of teams that took huge steps forward and Queens was one of those teams.
Offense drives their success as they rank 77th in the nation in offensive adjusted efficiency. They are 15th in effective field goal percentage, 54th in turnover percentage, 68th in three-point shooting percentage, and 32nd in non-steal percentage percentage. In fact, six players average 10+ points per game.
Nasir Mann leads the team while averaging 13.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 49.5% overall and 32.7% from three-point. He’s been hot of late as well as he is averaging 17.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.8 steals over his last six games.
Unfortunately for the Royals, Purdue runs the best offense in the country as the Boilermakers are 1st in offensive adjusted efficiency. The Royals on the other hand are 322nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Unfortunately, those two things don’t line up well and the Boilermakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season as of late. This is going to be tough for Queens to keep up.
Arizona (1) vs Long Island (16)
Fins up! The Long Island Sharks gave us some fun games this season. They nearly took down Mississippi State, gave Georgia a run, and beat some solid mid-majors in the non-conference. They finished the regular season 21-10 and 15-3 in the NEC, then held off a scrappy Chicago State squad, Wagner, and Mercyhurst in the Tournament Championship to head to the Big Dance.
They aren’t going to blow your mind in metrics, but they aren’t your average NEC team. They are 90th in effective field goal percentage, 51st in three-point shooting percentage, 72nd in blocking percentage, 62nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 14th in block percentage, and 44th in opponent steal percentage.
Jamal Fuller is the name to know as they 6’5 senior is averaging 16.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 blocks, and one steal per game while shooting 52.5% overall and 43.8% from beyond the arc. His 27.9% possession usage is 126th in the nation.
They are not going to take down Arizona, given the Wildcats are a legitimate National Championship contender, however, Long Island should give us the best gave from any of the 16 seeds (although Howard looked good last night). Enjoy the run Shark fans, Fins up!