2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Breakdown
Can McNeese shock Vanderbilt? Will VCU upset UNC? Breaking down every mid-major matchup in the 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region.
This morning we released our breakdown of the East Region, but the South Region has some juicy matchups. Ranging from a tough McNeese squad going up against an under-seeded Vanderbilt team, to VCU going to battle against a Caleb Wilson-less North Carolina squad, to Troy who’s lost to a sub-300 KenPom team and beating a top-50 KenPom team.
Without further-ado, let’s break down the South Region!
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South Region
Vanderbilt (5) vs McNeese (12)
This is the spiciest matchup of the entire tournament in the Round of 64 in my opinion. After Vanderbilt ended the season 24-7 with wins over UCF, VCU, Saint Mary’s, SMU, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Tennessee, to then go to the SEC Tournament and beat Tennessee again, drilling Florida (a one seed) 91-74, then losing in the SEC Championship to Arkansas, I almost assumed that the Commodores were guaranteed a four-seed, maybe even the last three. I would have never assumed they would receive a five-seed.
While Commodores fans can be frustrated, McNeese fans should be even more frustrated with the fact they have to play an under-seeded power conference school. While this isn’t Will Wade’s McNeese squad, Bill Armstrong has done a phenomenal job in year one as the Cowboys are 28-5 with wins over quite a few strong mid-majors. They are 68th in KenPom, 91st in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 49th in defensive adjusted efficiency.
The Cowboys thrive on creating turnovers, blocking out, and shot blocking. They are 33rd in turnover percentage, 1st in opponent turnover percentage, 49th in offensive rebounding percentage, 13th in block percentage, 4th in opponent block percentage, 2nd in steal percentage, and 1st in opponent steal percentage.
Larry Johnson is an absolute monster. He averaged 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 50.2% overall. His 30.4% possession usage is 45th in the nation, and he’s taking 33.2% of the Cowboys shots when he’s on the court which is 16th in the nation. Lately, he’s been on another level. Over his last seven games he is averaging 20.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game, including an insane stat line of 27 points, 12 rebounds, and seven steals in the Southland semifinals.
Coming in here, Vanderbilt is ranked 12th in KenPom and they take great care of the ball. They are 47th in non-steal turnover percentage and 11th in turnover percentage. This is what makes the matchup difficult for McNeese because they thrive off exactly what Vanderbilt is great at on both ends of the court. However, that’s not putting the nail in the coffin for McNeese. This is a team full of power conference caliber players that’s going to go toe-to-toe with one of the best from the SEC this season. Pencil this in as the most competitive 12-5 seed matchup in the NCAA Tournament this season.
Nebraska (4) vs Troy (13)
Troy has been a wild team to follow all season. If you’ve tuned in at all to our weekly Heat Check Reports during the regular season, you’ll know that we’ve covered them many times because of how streaky they can be. They took down a tough Kent State squad, beat San Diego State in double-overtime, lost to USC in triple-overtime by one point, beat Akron, UAB, etc. However, they lose to West Georgia (304th in KenPom), and took six losses in conference.
For Nebraska, it’s been the season of Cornhuskers’ dreams for a team that is seeking to finally claim their first win in the NCAA Tournament in program history. They started off 20-0 before dropping some close games to Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa.
The Trojans are 141st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 166th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 152nd in effective field goal percentage, 108th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 55th in offensive rebounding percentage, 43th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 96th in two-point shooting percentage, 309th in tempo, and 54th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts.
Even breaking down their metrics shows just how all over the place this Troy team is. However, where they can take advantage of Nebraska is on the offensive glass. The Cornhuskers are just 314th in offensive rebounding percentage, compared to Troy’s 55th. Nebraska isn’t terrible on defense inside the paint, but they are average at best, so Troy has the opportunity to take advantage of second chance points inside, even if just 44.7% of their points are coming from inside the arc.
Thomas Dowd is the name to know from Troy. The 6’8 junior is averaging 14.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.2 steals while shooting 45.1% overall and 34.4% from three-point. In their win against San Diego State he had 25 points with 19 rebounds. He posted a streak of five double-doubles in a row at one point.
This is a tough matchup for Troy considering the Cornhuskers have the ceiling to go on a deep run in the Tournament, but on the flip side, the Trojans have shown that they have the potential to knock off anyone on any given day. I expect this to not be a blowout and be a game that people will be flipping to in the final minutes.
Check out our Top Five Potential Upsets!
NCAA Tournament: Top 5 Potential Upsets
The 2026 NCAA Tournament has been released with one of the least controversial brackets in recent memory. Traditionally, we’ll have a mid-major that was left out or a questionable power conference program that was given a bid to argue about, but this year is mostly satisfactory.
North Carolina (6) vs VCU (11)
I view this matchup between VCU very similarly to how I view the South Florida vs Louisville game as another 6 vs 11 seed. VCU is 27-7 on the season, 45th in KenPom, and 43rd in the NET. They started off a little up-and-down, losing to Utah State by three points, NC State by six, Vanderbilt by 15, and New Mexico bs three. However, they also picked up wins over South Florida and Virginia Tech in the non-conference. They cruised through the A-10, going 15-3 while taking down Dayton twice and only losing to Saint Louis in both matchups and George Mason on the road by six.
The Rams have traditionally been a stout defensive team, but they are a tad bit more offensively minded this season. They rank 46th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 60th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how their key metrics line up:
67th in effective field goal percentage
62nd in opponent effective field goal percentage
74th in turnover percentage
15th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt
35th in three-point shooting percentage
116th in two-point shooting percentage
54th in non-steal turnover percentage
131st in opponent three-point shooting percentage
50th in opponent two-point shoot percentage
Terrence Hill Jr has been incredible this season. He’s averaging 14.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 46.1% overall and 35.5% from three-point. Lazar Djokovic has been an huge piece to the puzzle as he is averaging 13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, one assist, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 51.6% from the floor and 35.6% from beyond the arc.
North Carolina comes into this game at 24-8 on the season, 29th in KenPom, and 24th in the NET. They lost standout freshman Caleb Wilson for the season with a broken thump on February 10th against Miami and that’s thrown a wrench in things. Coming into that game they were 19-4, but they dropped that game to Miami, then took an 82-58 loss to NC State, and a 76-61 loss to Duke. In the remaining games they did win, they had to just skirt past Louisville by three, Virginia Tech by seven, and Clemson by four all at home.
If VCU wants to complete the upset, they’ll need to focus on the three-pointer. UNC is just 216th in opponent three point shooting percentage and their opponents score 33.8% of their points from beyond the arc, an area where VCU thrives. The Rams are 95th in the country in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts and score 34.3% of their points from deep.
If UNC wants to avoid being upset, they need to keep the Rams off the line. VCU lives at the free throw line as they score 23% of their points at the line which is 44th in the nation and they are 18th in free throw attempts per game. The Tar Heals do not foul, in fact, they are 16th in the country in least amount of fouls per game and their opponents score just 14.8% of their points from the stripe which is 358th in the country.
This is going to be a very close game and VCU has momentum, while North Carolina is going to be swinging without their future NBA player Caleb Wilson. We’re going with the Rams.
Check out our breakdown of the East Region here!
2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Breakdown
Today, the NIT and First Four are both tipping off, but you’ll still have until Thursday morning to finalize your brackets! Over the next two days, we are going to be breaking down each region’s matchups containing a non-power conference school to help shape your picks this season.
Illinois (3) vs Penn (14)
TJ Power. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.
Okay, so this is probably one of the funniest matchups of the entire tournament’s opening round. We’ve got Brad Underwood going up against Fran McCaffrey once again as McCaffrey is taking his fifth team to the NCAA Tournament with the Penn Quakers.
While everyone assumed that Yale would be the team in the Ivy League to come out with the single-bid, but TJ Power’s 44 point performance including the game-tying three nearly at the buzzer to send them to overtime in the Ivy League Championship. Power is averaging 16.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 45.5% overall and 43.3% from beyond the arc. He is 27th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage.
Penn started off just 9-10, but finished the season 18-11 with just a four-point loss to Yale preventing them from being undefeated from January 31st and on. They are 150th in KenPom, 204th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 111th in defensive adjusted efficiency. No shocker with TJ Power’s stats, but they are 11th in three-point shooting percentage and 89th in steal percentage.
Unfortunately, Illinois has an incredibly high ceiling. They are unique because they have the ability to fall flat, which means that Penn’s chances are not 0% here. TJ Power has the light of March Madness in him that is just prime for a Jack Golhke-esq performance against the Illini. However, Illinois is 2nd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 28th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are essentially at the top of the majority of categories. If they can contain Power, then this won’t be a problem.
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Saint Mary’s (7) vs Texas A&M (10)
Bucky McMillan vs Randy Bennett is a dream matchup as both coaches rely on the unique styles of play and are incredibly strategic coaches. Kudos to what McMillan has done this season as Texas A&M didn’t have much love coming into the year. They started off 7-1 in the SEC, and although they finished just 11-7 they still picked up wins over Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Kentucky.
For Saint Mary’s, they enter play at 27-5 with loses to Vanderbilt, Boise State by one point, Santa Clara twice, and Gonzaga on the road. They ended their regular season with a win against Gonzaga at home in their last regular season matchup between the two rivals as members of the WCC. The Gaels sit at 24th in KenPom and 22nd in the NET, while lining up at 43rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 19th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their key team metrics line up:
108th in effective field goal percentage
18th in opponent effective field goal percentage
15th in offensive rebounding percentage
4th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
13th in three-point shooting percentage
41st in opponent three-point shooting percentage
20th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
1st in free throw shooting percentage
41st in steal percentage
A&M is 49th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 41st in defensive adjusted efficiency, but they love to play fast as they are 29th in tempo and 14th in average possession length. They lack interior defense and struggle to score inside as they are just 334th in two-point distribution in total points and are 327th in block percentage. If Saint Mary’s can get inside, they’ll be able to take advance.
If A&M wants to pull off the upset, they’ll need to focus on locking down Saint Mary’s from outside. They have a decent perimeter defense at 54th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, where the Gaels are 13th in the country. However, Saint Mary’s needs to do the same as the Aggies score 37% of their points from outside which is 50th in the country. On the flip side, they don’t score any points from inside the arc where Saint Mary’s is lethal on defense.
Who ever wins? A date with Houston in the Round of 32. Give us the Gaels over A&M. Check out why I think this Saint Mary’s team is built to better position itself this season:
Houston (2) vs Idaho (15)
Idaho finished the regular season just 17-14 and 9-9 in the Big Sky, but they went on a run in the conference tournament, taking down Sacramento State, Montana State, Eastern Washington, and Montana to clinch their bid to the Big Dance.
The Vandals are 145th in KenPom, 176th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 136th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They aren’t going to blow you away in any key categories, but they are well balance. They sit at 148th in three-point shooting percentage, 169th in two-point shooting percentage, 63rd in turnover percentage, 5th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, and 74th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
Kolton Mitchell has put together a strong sophomore campaign, averaging 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 39.3% from the floor and 35.9% from three-point. He had some dominating games, including two 30+ point performances.
This is a real tough matchup for an Idaho team that came out of the Big Sky that many thought Portland State would have no problem with. Unfortunately, Houston has many sending them to the Final Four, with others (including myself) sending them to the NCAA Championship.
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Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh (16) vs Florida (1)
While many would have loved to have seen a Lehigh vs Duke matchup to bring back old memories, however, this year we’ll see them go up against Prairie View A&M in Dayton as part of the First Four. The Panthers come in at 18-17 out of the SWAC and the Mountain Hawks sit at 18-16 after winning the Patriot League that Navy won by six games in the regular season.
While we are always rooting for small teams, Florida’s going to take this one easily.