2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Breakdown
From Akron's elite offense to Hofstra's upset potential, here's your complete 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region mid-major guide.
So far we have covered the East, South, and West region, so it’s time to breakdown the Midwest region which is the most ripe with potential mid-major upsets. We have Akron taking on a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech squad. Santa Clara is going up against a disappointing Kentucky team. Hofstra is within reach now with the latest Alabama scandal.
Let’s dive into all of the mid-major matchups you need to know about in the Midwest region!
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Georgia (8) vs Saint Louis (9)
Saint Louis was one of the best teams outside of the traditional power conferences this season. The Billikens started off 24-1 on the season and 12-0 in the A-10 while taking just a one point loss on a late shot to Stanford. They took a handful of losses late in the season to Rhode Island, Dayton, George Mason, and Dayton again in the conference tournament. However, finishing 28-5 is still a remarkable feat.
The Billikens are 41st in KenPom, 51st in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 43rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Led by players like Robbie Avila, Trey Green, Amari McCottry, and more…this is a team that could go deep. Head coach Josh Schertz will be hungry as well for his first NCAA Tournament win, especially after inking a lucrative deal to stay as the head coach with significant additional resources coming his way.
We covered this matchup in depth earlier this week in our Top 5 potential upsets post, which you can view here (or below)!
Texas Tech (5) vs Akron (12)
We have another 5-12 matchup that you should really be keeping an eye on. The Akron Zips were overshadowed by Miami this season in the MAC, but the Zips went 29-5 on the season and they sit at 64th in KenPom. their non-conference losses were to Purdue, Yale, and Murray State who was on fire in the first half of the season.
The Zips are 54th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 114th in defensive adjusted efficiency. John Groce runs a quick offense at 32nd in tempo and 31st in average possession length, so it’s not uncommon they score 90+. In fact, they’ve done that 17 times this season. They are 8th in effective field goal percentage, 14th in three-point shooting percentage, and 12th in two-point shooting percentage. Akron is about as good of a shooting team as you are going to find.
Tavari Johnson is the star of the show as he averages 20.1 points, three rebounds, five assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 51.2% overall and 37.3% from three-point. Johnson is 188th in offensive rating, 134th in possession usage, and 119th in true-shooting percentage. Amani Lyles is another name to know as he is averaging 14.6 points, eight rebounds, 2.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 55.7% overall and 37.5% from three-point. Lyles is 60th in effective field goal percentage and 55th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Texas Tech is 22-10 on the season and 20th overall in KenPom. They are a bit cold as of late, going just 3-4 over their last seven games. They are also without star JT Toppin who was averaging 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. They run a slower tempo at 245th overall, so quite different from the Zips.
For Texas Tech, they have to slow down Akron, however, they haven’t done a great job of bringing opponents to their speed. They are 119th in opponent average possession length. Without JT Toppin, they are going to be exposed more for a team that is just 357th in bench minutes on the season.
For Akron, they have an opportunity to become a true Bracket Buster. One that could not only take down Texas Tech, but potentially even make a run to the Sweet 16 if the stars align. They are one of the best offensive teams in the country with a plethora of scoring options, elite ball movement, and high basketball IQ.
Consider taking the Akron Zips as a fun upset.
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Alabama (4) vs Hofstra (13)
Death. Taxes. Alabama basketball playing with some wild controversy. It was announced that Aden Holloway had been arrested earlier this week and barring any insane juking of the legal system, he’ll be absent from Bama’s game against Hofstra. Holloway averages 16.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists for the Crimson Tide, so this is a massive loss.
Hofstra is in position to take advantage. The Pride are 24-10 on the season coming into this game and they are about as well balanced as you can get. They rank 88th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 95th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how some of their key metrics shape up:
10th in opponent effective field goal percentage
51st in offensive rebounding percentage
29th in three-point shooting percentage
76th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
3rd in opponent two-point shooting percentage
27th in steal percentage
They run a slow scheme as they are 317th in tempo and just 334th in average possession length at over 19 seconds per possession. Over their last ten games, they are 32nd in defensive adjusted efficiency per BartTorvik as well. This is a slow, defensive minded team which is exactly the type that could pull off an upset in the NCAA Tournament.
Cruz Davis is a star for Hofstra. The 6’3 junior averages 20.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 44.3% overall and 39.9% from three-point. He’s dropped 30+ points four times this season, and less than ten points just three times.
Bama is a night-and-day difference in how they play. They are 3rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 67th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 4th in tempo, and 8th in average possession length. They rank 29th in three-point shooting percentage, but Holloway was their leading shooter at 43.8% from beyond the arc. Philon Jr. is the only other shooting over 40% at 40.2%. The next closes is Amari Allen at 36.5%.
The Pride are an elite defensive team from inside the paint, so couple that with Alabama losing their best three-point shooter…something could be brewing there. However, if Alabama can keep the game sped up, they’ll be able to handle Hofstra with ease. The key for the Pride is going to be to slow the pace of the game and make the Crimson Tide play to their style. Hofstra scores 37.4% of their points from outside, which is 41st in the nation, and Bama is just 156th in opponent three-point shooting. In fact, their opponents score 29.1% of their points from three-point which is 270th overall.
There are a lot of factors that are trending the right way for Hofstra, and it’s still very much an up-hull climb, but things are going to be VERY interesting in this game.
We recently posted a video breakdown the Hofstra Pride in depth, check it out below!
Miami Ohio (11) vs SMU (11)
They did it! The Miami RedHawks earned the at-large bid with a chance to make the field of 64 by playing SMU in Dayton as a part of the First Four. The two teams will matchup tonight as there’s no doubt this is one of the most talked about First Four games in a long time.
The RedHawks finished the perfect regular season, going 31-0, but fell to UMass in the MAC Conference Tournament, forcing the Selection Committee to do the right thing and give the MAC two-bids in the Big Dance. They rank 70th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 6th in effective field goal percentage, 40th in turnover percentage, 58th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt, 22nd in three-point shooting percentage, 2nd in two-point shooting percentage, 51st in block percentage, 89th in steal percentage, and 30th in non-steal turnover percentage.
Essentially, this is an elite offensive team. Their defensive metrics aren’t nearly as good, but they aren’t terrible as they sit at 157th in defensive adjusted efficiency.
SMU is entering Dayton ice cold. They’ve won just one of their last six games and just five games since January 24th. They are 42nd in KenPom and built a little similarly to Miami. They are 26th in offensive adjusted efficiency, but just 92st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Tempo-wise they are 115th compared to Miami at 44th.
The RedHawks have six players averaging 10+ points per game, with Peter Suder leading the charge. He’s averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, four assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 55.4% overall and 42.9% from beyond the arc. He is 119th in effective field goal percentage, 242nd in offensive rating, and 301st in assist rate.
The winner of this game will take on Tennessee in the Round of 64. The Volunteers are 22-11 and 16th in KenPom. They’ve had an up-and-down year with some strong wins over Houston, Louisville, Alabama, and Vanerbilt, but they also lost to Syracuse and pulled out some very close wins over borderline teams. They are 34th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 15th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They ended the season just 2-4 in their last six games, so whoever wins between Miami and SMU will have some momentum going their way.
Virginia (3) vs Wright State (14)
The Wright State Raiders cruised through the traditionally unpredictable Horizon League this season, going 23-11 overall and 15-5 in conference. They rank 118th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 193rd in defensive adjusted efficiency.
Michael Cooper has been one of the most underrated freshman in the country for Wright State. The 6’3 guard is averaging 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 44.9% overall and 36.4% from three-point. He can be streaky, as any freshman can, but when he’s on he’s nearly impossible to stop.
As a team, they are 59th in effective field goal percentage, 88th in offensive rebounding percentage, 50th in three-point shooting percentage, 74th in two-point shooting percentage, and 90th in non-steal turnover percentage. They score a ton of points, but shockingly don’t run a super fast offense. The Raiders are just 192nd in tempo and 228th in average possession length at nearly 18 seconds per possession.
Virginia is 29-5 and 13th in KenPom. They sit at 27th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 16th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This isn’t the old Cavaliers that are scoring 50 points per game, but they still run a slower tempo under Ryan Odom as they are 270th in tempo and 149th in average possession length.
Wright State is going to have to shoot their way out of this matchup and with as good of a defense as Virginia has, it’s going to be very difficult.
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Kentucky (7) vs Santa Clara (10)
The WCC was viewed as a three-bid league potentially coming into the season with Gonzaga & Saint Mary’s leading the charge, however, it was San Francisco that had a lot of eyes on them. Santa Clara started off hot at 6-0 with wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, and Minnesota with a one point loss to Saint Louis within the month of November. Things got quiet as they started off December just 1-3, but they rebounded well to lose just three more games the rest of the entire season. They are 26-8 on the season and 35th in KenPom.
They rank 23rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 82nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Their offense is the true driver, led by Christian Hammond who is averaging 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game as just a sophomore.
Kentucky on the other hand as been far too inconsistent through out the season for a team that came in with a lot of expectations. The Wildcats are 21-13 and 28th in KenPom. Over their final seven games of the season, they went just 2-5, scrapped by LSU in the SEC Tournament, and beat Missouri who snuck into the tournament just 78-72.
We covered this matchup in depth earlier this week in our Top 5 potential upsets post, which you can view here (or below)!
Iowa State (2) vs Tennessee State (15)
Tennessee State has been an incredible story to follow throughout the season. Nolan Smith took over as head coach and has led the Tigers to a 23-9 record in year one. In the non-conference, they kept up with Belmont, Western Kentucky, and Tennessee in the first half before being blown out in the second half.
They rank 173rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 211th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They won’t blow you away, but they are 24th in opponent turnover percentage, 33rd in block percentage, 50th in offensive rebound percentage, and 12th in opponent steal percentage. They take great care of the ball.
Aaron Nkrumah & Travis Harper II are both phenomenal players. Nkrumah is averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists, and 2.8 steals while shooting 43.7% overall and 35.2% from three-point. He is 5th in the country in steal percentage and 163rd in possession usage. Harper II is averaging 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 47.6% overall and 40.1% from three-point. He is 164th in offensive rating, 103rd in true-shooting percentage, and 110th in three-point shooting.
Iowa State is a wagon. They rank 6th in KenPom and come into the game at 27-7 on the season. They are 21st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 4th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They’ve been a little bit up-and-down recently as they ended the season just 2-3 in their last five games, however…they are good enough to go to a Final Four or more.
Michigan (1) vs Howard (16)
The Howard Bison picked up their first NCAA Tournament win in program history over UMBC last night in the opening game of the 2026 tournament in Dayton as part of the First Four. They took down UMBC 86-83 as Ose Okojie poured in 23 points, while Bryce Harris had 19 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists.
The Bison are an incredibly defensive-minded team. They are 129th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 37th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 14th in opponent turnover percentage, 30th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 56th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, 21st in opponent steal percentage, and 25th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage.
They finished the season at 23-10 and are coming into this game at 24-10. However, Michigan is a National Championship contender, so unfortunately, Howard has a nearly impossible task.