2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Breakdown
Can Northern Iowa slow St. John's? Will Cal Baptist shock Kansas? Your complete 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region mid-major breakdown.
Today, the NIT and First Four are both tipping off, but you’ll still have until Thursday morning to finalize your brackets! Over the next two days, we are going to be breaking down each region’s matchups containing a non-power conference school to help shape your picks this season.
First up, we’re breaking down the East Region!
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East Region
St. Johns (5) vs Northern Iowa (12)
The Northern Iowa Panthers had an up-and-down season, starting off 12-3 and 4-0 in the Missouri Valley, but they fell to just a 1-6 stretch. They finished the regular season 19-12 and 11-9, but won three games in a row in Arch Madness to pick up the auto-bid to the Big Dance.
The Panthers are 72nd in KenPom and the NET. They are driven by their defense as they sit at 24th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 101st in two-point shooting percentage, and 3rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Trey Campbell is the leading player, averaging 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 44% overall and 34.7% from beyond the arc.
St. John’s was a preseason favorite, but they fell flat at the beginning as they opened up to just 4-3. However, they figured it out as they’ve lost just twice since the calendar turned to 2026, falling to Providence 77-71 and UConn in an insane 72-40 rout. They cruised through the Big East Tournament, including a 72-52 win over UConn in the Championship.
There are a few factors coming into play here as I feel like St. John’s could’ve been a four-seed, while Northern Iowa could’ve maybe been a 13-seed. However, these two defenses make it an interesting game to monitor. St. John’s sits at 12th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 68th in tempo, while UNI is top-25 in defense as well, but just 363rd in tempo. On the offensive end, UNI is 52nd in two-point shooting and 128th in three-point shooting, compared to St. John’s who sits at 190th and 216th in both.
If the Panthers want to pick up the win over the Red Storm, they are going to have to force them to play at their speed, play excellent defense as St. John’s isn’t an efficient shooting team. For St. John’s, they need to focus on the offensive glass as they are one of the best in the country at 28th and UNI is 356th.
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Kansas (4) vs Cal Baptist (13)
Kansas has been in the highlights of college basketball all season for sometimes the right thing and many times the wrong. With the dilemma and conversations around Darryn Peterson, it makes the Jayhawks come into the tournament in an interesting position. They are 23-10, 21st in KenPom, and the NET. However, they are just 4-5 over their last nine games including blow out losses to Iowa State, Cincinnati, Arizona, Houston, and a ten-point loss to Arizona State. They do have a strong 69-56 win at home over Houston during that span.
Cal Baptist has been a fun story from the beginning of the year as the Lancers started off 7-0 with wins over UC Irvine and Oregon State. They lost by eight to Colorado and 91-85 to Utah both on the road. They finished the season 23-8 and 13-5 the WAC while taking down Utah Tech and Utah Valley in the tournament to clinch their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in program history since joining the Division I ranks in 2018. They are 106th in KenPom and 98th in the NET.
If you haven’t heard of him yet, you need to familiarize yourself with Dominique Daniels Jr. on Cal Baptist. He’s averaging 23.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 43.7% overall and 32.8% from three-point. He’s dropped 40+ points twice, including 47 against Utah Valley earlier in the season, and he’s finished with single-digit points just once in their fifth game of the season. His 31% possession usage is 34th in the nation and he takes 34% of the Lancers’ shots when he’s on the court which is 11th overall.
Defense is the driver of both teams as Kansas is 10th in defensive adjusted efficiency and Cal Baptist is 50th. The Lancers are 15th in opponent effective field goal percentage and the Jayhawks are 4th. Both teams don’t run necessarily quick offenses, and they rely on the paint as Kansas is 120th in 2pt distribution and Cal Baptist is 80th, despite being just 318th in two-point shooting percentage.
If Cal Baptist wants to pull this off, they have to ensure that Daniels Jr. is not cut off. There’s no doubt that he’ll be on the face of all of Kansas’ scouting reports this week and he’ll be the focal point of their defensive pressure when they tip off on Friday. Aside from Daniels Jr., they’ll need to focus cleaning up the offensive glass as they are 11th in the nation and Kansas is just average at boxing out as they sit at 168th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.
All four of the 13-4 seeded matchups are interesting this year and with the way that Kansas has finished the season it doesn’t instill full confidence that they’ll be game ready come Friday and Cal Baptist matches up well against the Jayhawks.
Louisville (6) vs South Florida (11)
The Bracket has been released for a day and a half now and I’ve already seen conversations around this game all over the college basketball world. The Bulls are a fun team to watch and one that could make a trip to the Sweet-16 if the cards land right, but they’ll have to get past a tough Louisville team first.
You can check out our full breakdown on this matchup here in our NCAA Tournament Top 5 Potential Upsets article.
Michigan St (3) vs North Dakota St (14)
While Wright State and Virginia is an intriguing 3 vs 14 seed matchup, Michigan State and North Dakota State is right there as well. The Bison come in at 27-7 on the season, 113th in KenPom, and 114th in the NET. They are a well balanced team at 124th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 124th in defensive adjusted efficiency.
The Bison are led by Damari Wheeler-Thomas who averages 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 40.4% overall and 38.5% from three-point. He’s finished with less than 10 points just five times this season. Then Trevian Carson is right behind with 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.9 steals per game while shooting 48.1% overall and 37.9% from three-point. On the offensive end, he’s been a little cold of late however, even when he isn’t scoring he’s filling up the stat sheet. Over his last ten games, he’s averaging 8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. He’s dished out seven assists twice during that span.
Here’s where they lie with their team metrics:
85th in effective field goal percentage
109th in turnover percentage
62nd in opponent turnover percentage
77th in offensive rebounding percentage
17th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
73rd in three-point shooting percentage
126th in two-point shooting percentage
This is a team that isn’t at the bottom of anything, but isn’t at the top of many categories either. While I think it’s going to be very difficult to take down the Spartans, I firmly believe that North Dakota State would have the best opportunity among any of the 14-seeds sheerly because they do everything well or above average, giving them the versatility to match against the Spartans.
UConn (2) vs Furman (15)
Furman started off the season strong at 10-4 then moved on to 16-7 and 7-3 in the SoCon. However, things fell off as they finished the season just 19-12 and 10-8 in conference, yet they managed to go on a run by taking down Samford, UNC Greensboro, and the one-seed East Tennessee State 76-61 in the SoCon Championship.
They sit at 200th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 181st in defensive adjusted efficiency and 191st in KenPom. Alex Wilkins has been one of the best freshman in the country this season as the 6’5 guard is averaging 17.7 points, two rebounds, and 4.7 assists while shooting 45.8% overall and 32.1% from deep. His 34.4% possession usage is 7th in the nation, while his 34.7 assist rate is 32nd. When he’s on the court for the Paladins, he’s taking 32.9% of the team’s shots which is 21st in the country.
UConn was looking at a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Marquette in the last game of the season after having suffered a 91-84 loss to Creighton just a couple of weeks before. The Huskies at 29-5, still in conversation for a Final Four or even Championship appearance. While Furman can be a scrappy mid-major, it has a tall task in facing off against UConn.
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Duke (1) vs Siena (16)
Will we ever get another UMBC? The statistics don’t say no, but it’s probably not going to happen this year. For Siena, they came out of the MAAC which had a tremendous season with Merrimack, Siena, Marist, Saint Peter’s, and Quinnipiac all having strong seasons. They enter at 23-11 and 192nd in KenPom.
They run a slow offense as they are 319th in tempo and 341st in average possession length, but they put an emphasis on bringing their opponents along with them as they are 319th in opponent average possession length. Defense is the true driver as they are 53rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 106th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 47th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
Gavin Doty is a dog, averaging 17.9 points, seven rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 46.3% overall and 33.3% from three-point. He’s dropped 31 points against Iona and in their loss to Indiana he finished with 16 points and six rebounds.
While I love a good underdog story, the Duke Blue Devils will be winning this one.