As we are just a week away from the college basketball season, I’m teaming up with of Hoops Sicko to dive into six players outside the power conference ranks that have the potential of reaching the NBA. Let’s get started!

Use the code “BracketBusters” when checking out at Crow’s Nest Coffee Roasters to receive 20% of your order! Want two bags of coffee shipped to your door every month? Sign up for a monthly subscription here and receive 25% off your monthly subscription!

Miro Little – UC Santa Barbara

6’3” 195lbs - Point Guard – Junior

Ethan Alexander:

I’m excited to see Miro Little spread his wings with UCSB this season. The former top 50 recruit has spent two seasons playing in the Big 12, one for Baylor and one for Utah. During those years, he saw very little real opportunity to be his team’s lead guard, which led him to struggle to find his footing as both a scorer and passer. However, I’ve been a big fan of his game since high school, and his international career with Finland has been more than enticing. I still have faith that he could emerge as an elite pass-first point guard at the college level, and now that he’s with the Gauchos, he should have more than enough opportunity to do just that.

Little’s career with Baylor isn’t really worth noting, as he played only 7.1 minutes per game for the Bears. However, I do think it’s important to understand why he struggled last season with the Utes if we want to understand what his path to being an NBA prospect could look like. While he did have trouble finding consistency as a scorer with Utah, he did lead the team in assists with only 2.9 per game. The Utes didn’t run a system that required a pass-first lead guard, instead running offense through dynamic scoring guard Gabe Madsen and their big men. Because of this, Little’s style of play forced the team to totally change their objectives when he was on the court, forcing him into a bench role when he was brought to the program to be a starter. Now, he joins a program that will likely allow him to play his pass-first style.

Little is a dynamic passer with an intriguing scoring arsenal at the one. At 6’3” and 195lbs, he’s a bit bigger than most pass-first lead guards, allowing for a more diverse scoring toolbelt than expected. He’s an excellent offensive processor, prodding into the mid-range and paint to collapse the defense before making decisions. When his outside shot is falling, he’s able to draw defenders beyond the arc, a position where he finds a ton of success both as a scorer and passer. Even when his scoring falters, his defense and positional rebounding bring enough value to warrant keeping him on the court. He’s a solid point-of-attack defender and a very smart defensive playmaker, and he grabbed 3.2 rebounds per game last year despite playing limited minutes off the bench.

It’s difficult to evaluate Little based on what we’ve seen so far, but I’m of the belief that if he can put everything together, he could become a very enticing prospect. For me, everything hinges on his scoring coming together for an entire season. He hasn’t proved to be a consistent scorer from any individual level, despite showing significant flashes from all three. I’m not concerned about his passing, defense, or rebounding, but he has major questions to answer regarding his scoring. If he can answer those questions this season, he could emerge as one of the top players from a Big West conference that has found major success over the past few seasons.

Rafael Castro - George Washington

6’11” 220lbs - Center - Senior

Elliott Crow:

Rafael Castro is one of the best big men in the country among the college basketball ranks. Last season, he averaged 14 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 66% from the floor. Looking at his key metrics:

• 125.8 offensive rating (82nd)

• 65.8% effective field goal percentage (13th)

• 66.1% true shooting percentage (22nd)

• 12.7% offensive rebounding percentage (80th)

• 21.6% defensive rebounding percentage (143rd)

• 5.1% blocking percentage (181st)

• 2.5% steal percentage

He’s a traditional center, but we’ve seen the trend of these styles of players returning to the NBA. With Zach Edey and Ryan Kalkbrenner being two players that immediately come to mind over the last two seasons. However, he is light years quicker on his feet than those two comparisons. Plus, he can actually distribute the ball a little bit as well. He finished with a 13.8 assist rate, which for a 6’11 center is impressive. We were able to watch his basketball IQ blossom before our eyes last season and he continuously improve as each month went on.

Castro is a remarkable athlete. He can slam home dunks, he never gives us on the glass, and he is stout defensively. He’s not a three point threat at all, but he doesn’t have to be. He’s one of the most efficient scorers inside the paint, in which he can use his length and speed to his advantage. Then on the defensive end, he uses those same traits to lock down the paint and block a large amount of shots and disrupt the lanes to create turnovers that can turn into fast break opportunities.

The only con I’ll highlight at this point is, Castro is pretty thin. When he gets to the next level, he is going to have to put some more muscle on to be able to fight against some of the big men in the NBA. However, I fully believe that his skills are impressive enough to overcome his smaller frame. For example, I’ve highlighted that he is quick on his feet, which allows him to maneuver the paint and pivot quickly. That’s going to allow him to carve up other bigs that can’t change direction quickly enough. He has an opportunity to turn what some would say is a con into leverage to make himself more valuable inside the paint.

I’ll end on this. People are going to make comments that he had to transfer down from Providence to George Washington to produce, but that’s not how I see it. He needed an opportunity and not only did he get one, he also blew past expectations. If he can take another step forward this season, or even just mirror what he did last year, and I fully believe that he will be an NBA player.

Chase Walker – Illinois State

6’9” 280lbs – Power Forward/Center - Junior

Ethan Alexander:

Illinois State’s Chase Walker will be one of the most dominant players in the nation this year, likely leading the MVC favorite Redbirds to an NCAA tournament berth in the process. The hefty back-down artist is coming off a sophomore season when he emerged as one of the top big men in all of mid-major basketball, and now he’s looking to cement himself as one of the top frontcourt players in the country.

Following a year when he posted averages of 15.2 points per game, 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists, .7 steals, and .4 blocks on shooting splits of 58% from the field, 35.7% from beyond the arc (on limited attempts), and 69.3% from the charity stripe, his decision to remain with the Redbirds was admittedly surprising. One would assume he was a hot commodity for high major programs looking to get multiple seasons from an elite big man. Instead, he decided to return to the program who took a chance on the once unranked high school recruit from Columbus, Ohio. Now, he’s the biggest name (and player) for one of the most highly touted mid-major teams in the country, and I fully expect him to take another leap, post some of the best stats in the country, and emerge as a potential NBA prospect.

When he has the ball in his hands, Walker almost exclusively operates under and around the rim. He spends the majority of each possession operating away from the ball, setting screens and flowing through actions before finding strong court position and being set up inside by his teammates. At that point, it’s usually too late for his opponents. Once he has the ball in the paint, he utilizes elite footwork and body control to further improve his position before overpowering his matchup with his impressive strength. Despite being a couple inches undersized for his position, his weight and strength more than makes up for this physical disadvantage. Even then, he’s not some sort of dynamic vertical athlete who regularly throws down emphatic dunks. Instead, he relies on elite interior touch to convert layups, floaters, and push shots.

The rest of Walker’s game is rather uninteresting, as he’s an average interior defender and a slightly below average rebounder. However, the one ancillary skill that stood out to me during his sophomore season was his passing. He showed flashes of being a legitimate offensive hub, finding teammates on cuts and around screens for efficient looks both inside and out. If he could further develop this skill, he could make up for his lack of a real outside shot, artificially extending his game beyond the arc via his passing. This is what I’m looking for from an NBA perspective, as I think the only way he becomes a viable NBA prospect is for him to adopt that multi-layered offensive skillset. If he does this while dominating the MVC how he’s expected to, I think he could make the NBA leap following this season. Either that, he transfers to a powerhouse program, or he stays with Illinois State for what could be one of the best seasons we’ve seen from a mid-major player in a very long time.

Want to support my writing, but don’t want to sign up for a monthly subscription? Consider “buying me a coffee” via the link below!

Buy Me A Coffee

Sign up for Bracket Busters’ Discord to discuss all things Mid-Major Basketball!

Dayan Nessah - Cleveland State

6’7” 218lbs - Forward/Wing - Sophomore

Elliott Crow:

You probably haven’t heard of Dayan Nessah yet, but fans of teams outside of the traditional power conferences will be learning his name quickly this season. Nessah spent his freshman season with the George Washington Revolutionaries where he averaged 2.7 points and 1.5 rebounds while shooting 52.4% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. These aren’t eye popping, but lets dive into what really caught my attention this year.

Nessah participated in the FIBA U19 World Cup this year as a member of team Switzerland. He absolutely dominated on the court. Through seven games, he averaged 17.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. He finished with four double-doubles, and his best game came against their stunning victory over France as he had 22 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals.

He is incredibly crafty on offense. He isn’t afraid to fight through contact to get to the rim, he can stop on a dime and knock down a mid-range shot, and he is a strong three-point shooter as he finished in the FIBA U19 World Cup shooting 51.9% from outside. He’s a monster on the boards as he rebounds as if he is a center at 6’7. He has some work to do on his free throw shooting, but I’m not too concerned with that. He does have a natural ability to create offense for himself, which allows him to get to the line at a high rate so he needs to improve there.

I do want to see him become more efficient from inside the arc. He’s a prolific athlete and scorer, but he shot just 41.9% from inside on nearly nine attempts per game. That’s not bad by any means, but he was the go-to guy on Switzerland. When he heads to Cleveland State this year, he isn’t going to be averaging nearly 13 shots per game, so I want to see him play more tight.

Cleveland State is entering a new era with head coach Rob Summers and he has found himself a potential future NBA player. Dayan Nessah should have a huge opportunity this season to secure a starting role on a rebuilding team, where he’ll most likely be able to increase his stock to hop to a power conference school within a year or two.

I actually had pieced together some highlights, which you can watch below:

Colby Duggan – Charleston

6’7” 225lbs – Forward/Wing - Junior

Ethan Alexander:

Now, for two years in a row, the Campbell Fighting Camels have produced players who looked like potential NBA role players. Anthony Dell’Orso was first, who shot over 40% from three with Arizona last season and who looks to take a leap this year. Now it’s Colby Duggan, who will be playing his junior season with Charleston after a very successful sophomore campaign with the Camels. He made a major leap between his first and second seasons with Campbell, posting averages of 15.7 points per game, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .5 steals, and .3 blocks on splits of 46.1% from the field, 34% from three-point territory, and 72.6% from the charity stripe this past season. Now he joins one of the better mid-major rosters in the country at Charleston, and I fully expect him to help lead them to the NCAA tournament, where I think they could make major waves.

Duggan has an incredibly unique game, yet one that I think could translate to higher levels of the sport if utilized properly. Despite having the sturdy build of a traditional forward, he plays more like a wing, offering long-range catch-and-shoot value and creating a ton of downhill offense from the mid-range. In fact, he was one of the best mid-range shooters in the nation this past year, being nearly automatic on pull-up and turnaround jumpers from that range. He’s capable of finding offense with and without the ball and is in constant flow within the offense on every possession. He’s a strong screener and connective passer who works away from the ball to disrupt the defense before getting the ball and going to work. Defensively, he offers a strong frame and above average mobility, allowing him to defend two-through-four, a skill that further bolsters his already impressive two-way versatility.

I do have a few questions regarding his game, most of which concern his positional value and fluidity. For example, he’s a rather poor rebounder for a four, but not horrible for a three. On the other hand, his 34% from beyond the arc looks a bit worse if you consider him a wing instead of a forward. His decision making also has room to grow, as he maintained a negative assist-to-turnover ratio throughout his sophomore season. One must also wonder if his mid-range reliant game will translate against bigger and better defenders, even though he is fantastic as both a shot creator and shot maker from that level. If his mid-range shooting falters, will his inside-out scoring be enough to shoulder the offensive weight that will likely be thrust upon him at Charleston? He must answer all these questions before I’ll feel comfortable considering him a real NBA prospect.

Luckily for us, Charleston will have the CAA’s spotlight this season and will likely be expected to compete on the national stage. Duggan isn’t the only marquee transfer the program brought in this offseason, with most spectators likely tuning in to watch SC Upstate transfer Mister Dean. This is to say that all his weaknesses (and strengths) should be on full display despite him not playing for a power program, which should allow him to put his name on NBA Draft radars if he does meet expectations. Personally, I’m excited to see what he’s capable of, and I’m hoping to see a leap from him coincide with a big year from the Cougars.

Amarri Monroe - Quinnipiac

6’7” 220lbs - Wing/Forward - Senior

Elliott Crow:

It’s probably not too often that you think about the MAAC and potential NBA players, or the fact that a potential NBA player passed on hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars to stay at Quinnipiac. Amarri Monroe is not only a special player, but one who’s loyalty has led him to spend his senior season with the Bobcats.

Monroe averaged 18.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2.3 steals per game last season while shooting 40.5% overall and 27.3% from beyond the arc. It’s hard to believe, but his sophomore season he shot even better. In the 2023-2024 season, he finished shooting 47.3% overall and 35.1% from beyond the arc. However, he was taking just 9.2 shots per game while that jumped to 15.2 per game last year. He’s metrics are elite:

• 23.8% defensive rebounding percentage (59th)

• 3.8% steal percentage (56th)

• 7.7% offesnive rebounding percentage (464th)

• 4.6 fouls drawn per 40 minutes (348th)

• 83% free throw percentage (213th)

While his offensive efficiency did drop from 111 from the year prior to 102.3, it’s still a respectable figure. In fact, the year prior he even finished with a 3.6% blocking percentage which dipped to 2.6% this season. It’s important to keep in mind that the efficiency dropped as his role changed. During his sophomore season the Bobcats had Savion Lewis and Matt Balanc who is now dominating overseas in Denmark. With in particular Balanc gone, Monroe stepped up as the go-to guy. It’s easy to imagine that had the Bobcats had more offensive pieces outside of Paul Otieno, his underlying metrics who more closely mirror that sophomore season.

Monroe is elite on offense, simple as that. He has a tremendous shooting ability which allows him to step outside and knock down a three, stop in the mid-range and hit a 15-17 foot shot, or use his athleticism to throw it down at the rim. On the defensive end, he has a solid wingspan which allows him to rack up the steals and turn those turnovers into points on the other end. He’s also a menace on the glass. At 6’7, he rebounds as if he was a seven foot center which is emphasized by that long reach and strong athleticism.

The largest concern I have is, what can he do against tougher talent. I personally love the MAAC, but the conference was 25th last season per KenPom with four sub-300 KenPom teams. For example, against St. John’s he finished with juts four points while shooting 0-9. Against Saint Louis, he finished with four points on 2-11 shooting. Against Yale, 23 points, but just 9-22 shooting and 1-9 from deep. The season prior, he finished with eight points against Florida even with an overall better roster around him. I’m not trying to diminish what he has done, but you do have to take into account the level of talent he is playing against. However, the raw talent and skillset is there to make him an intriguing option at the NBA level. I don’t foresee him being a late round pick unlike some others on this list, but he’s the type of player that could sneakily end up on a two-way contract or spend a year or two on a G-League roster to develop more.

Use the code “BracketBusters” when checking out at Crow’s Nest Coffee Roasters to receive 20% of your order! Want two bags of coffee shipped to your door every month? Sign up for a monthly subscription here and receive 25% off your monthly subscription!

Sign up for Bracket Busters’ Discord to discuss all things Mid-Major Basketball!

Player Profile:

Tyrone Riley IV is a 6’6” and 180lb wing from Watts, California who played his prep career at St. Pius – St. Matthias Academy in Downey, California. He had a prolific high school career, stuffing the stat sheet as he helped cement St. Pius – St. Matthias as a basketball powerhouse in one of the most competitive states in the country. He eventually became a consensus top 150 recruit in the 2024 graduating class, earning three-star status in the process. Despite not being a highly touted recruit, he still picked up offers from programs such as Florida, USC, Texas A&M, Xavier, and California. However, he decided to take his talents to the San Francisco Dons and head coach Chris Gerlufsen. Perhaps he decided to join the Dons to follow in his father’s footsteps, who starred for the program from 2003-05.

He came out of the gates hot, scoring 26 points in his college debut against Cal Poly. Three games later he pitched in 28 points against Chicago State. However, those totals would be his two highest marks of the season, as he’d come back down to Earth for the remainder of the season. He fell to third in the offensive pecking order behind upperclassmen Malik Thomas and Marcus Williams. On the season, Riley posted averages of 9.6 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.2 steals, and .4 blocks per game on shooting splits of 50.2% from the field, 32.2% from beyond the arc, and 73.5% from the free-throw line. He started all 34 of the team’s games and led the roster in rebounds per game.

Following a successful freshman season, Riley entered his name into the transfer portal. He was ranked as a four-star transfer and was immediately considered one of the top underclassmen transfer targets in the nation. However, after testing the waters and seeing exactly how he was valued among high major programs, he decided it was in his best interest to stay with San Francisco. Now he heads into his sophomore season as the likely go-to guy for the Dons following the departure of Thomas and the graduation of Williams.

Interior Scoring:

Riley’s offensive output is heavily reliant on around- and above-the-rim scoring. While he is a capable outside shooter and dabbled from the mid-range, his game is founded on his ability to score at the rim. Luckily for him and for the Dons, he’s an exceptional scorer from this range. He’s a lanky athlete with impressive vertical pop, allowing him to consistently finish over opponents. He has shown some flashes of dribble-drive self-creation, but where he’s most dangerous is operating away from the ball as a slashing play finisher. All in all, this element of his game is not only where he’s at his best currently, but also where he has the highest ceiling from a long-term perspective.

Beyond pure athleticism, Riley possesses an array of skills that make him a very effective at-the-rim off-ball finisher. His timing on cuts is elite, and he’s able to go from standing still and straight up to accelerating toward the rim with real speed in the blink of an eye. When he’s not throwing down dunks, he’s a talented mid-air contortionist, converting from strange angles all around the rim. He plays far bigger than his listed 180lbs would suggest, often going straight through the body of interior defenders before utilizing his length to finish around them. His finishing touch is incredibly soft, which suggests further development as a mid-range agent and outside shooter in the future.

Often, his on-ball interior offense is simply an extension of his off-ball work. By that I mean in most cases he only puts the ball on the floor if necessary, following receiving a pass in a similar fashion to his off-ball attempts. Perhaps he’ll attack a closeout for an emphatic dunk. Maybe he’ll post up his defender after receiving the ball in the paint. On rare occasions he will put the ball on the floor along the perimeter and make an effort to beat his defender off the dribble. He has shown enough promise in this department for me to predict growth in his future, but as of today he’s not a very strong on-ball scorer from any level of the floor.

Very few players in the country are as effective attacking the basket on the fast break as Riley. Not only is he capable of throwing down monstrous slam dunks and leaping from just in front of the free-throw line, but he also possesses pace control skills that make him wildly difficult to defend. If the lane isn’t wide open and he knows he may face a contest at the rim, he’s liable to slow down and leave defenders coasting past him, generating easy points. He maintains strong court awareness, seemingly always knowing where everyone else on the court is, which makes him less likely to be stopped in these situations.

Mid-Range Scoring:

Very little of Riley’s scoring is done from the mid-range, so let’s quickly cover how he has looked on the rare attempt from this level and if he could strengthen his in-between game in the future. He almost never attempts a traditional jump shot from this range, whether it be a pull-up, turnaround, or step-back. He’s far more likely to put up a floater or baby hook, especially in offensive rebound situations. That said, he’s also liable to attempt a floater on possessions where defenders expect him to take it all the way to the hoop. While this isn’t a common element of his game, I do think his floater will continue to develop, as it perfectly complements his around-the-rim offense.

On many of the floaters he attempted this season I felt he looked rushed, as if he didn’t mean to leave the floor as early as he did, forcing him to attempt a floater. His touch here doesn’t seem as soft as it does when he’s around and under the basket, and he’s evidently less confident attempting these looks than he is other shots around the floor. All in all, his growth in this department will be vital for the diversification of his offensive arsenal, an incredibly valuable trait when it comes to making a professional leap in the future.

As I said, Riley simply doesn’t attempt traditional jump shots from the mid-range. I watched just about every San Francisco game I could get my hands on and only caught him taking this lone mid-range pull-up jumper. It’s impossible to draw conclusions about long term growth based on one shot, but we can use his success-rates from other areas to take a guess about his mid-range shooting ceiling. For example, he’s a solid free-throw shooter, which tends to suggest future shooting success. He had an inconsistent outside shooting season, but as you will soon see, I think he’ll be a solid long-range shooter throughout his career. Because of this, I see no reason besides a lack of confidence why Riley shouldn’t be a better and more willing shooter from the mid-range.

Outside Shooting:

If I had to take a guess of what Riley will be described as when he inevitably enters his name into a future NBA Draft, it would be three-and-d wing. We’ll cover his defensive game soon enough, but for the time being let’s break down his outside shooting. Much like his mid-range game, Riley’s beyond the arc shooting is one dimensional, but unlike his mid-range game, he’s willing to take and able to make the shots which make up that dimension. His attempts are almost exclusively catch-and-shoot looks, and even though I’m a fan of his catch-and-shoot shot making, he has a lot of work to do before he’ll be considered a legitimate long-range marksman.

When you consider how Riley operates, it’s no shock that almost all of his shots are generated away from the ball. He’s a constant off-ball mover, always cutting to the rim in search of an opportunity to receive a pass around the rim for an easy finish. His outside shots usually come in-between these cuts, when for whatever reason his defender fails to cover him along the perimeter. He takes these shots with confidence and has solid mechanics for a guy who isn’t heavily reliant on the outside shot. He does start his shot motion rather low, but he gets the ball high for his shot release and remains relatively fluid throughout. He jumps forward on these looks which does result in the occasional drawn foul, a small but important wrinkle to consider. All in all, consistency from beyond the arc is the next step for him in this department, which I think he can develop through simple repetition and experience.

Throughout my dive into Riley’s film, this clip may have been the only real self-created outside shot that I caught. That said, something about the way he moves not only on this particular attempt but also in other scenarios leaves me hopeful about his future as an on-ball shooter. I doubt he will ever become a volume on-ball creator from any level, but development in this area would further diversify his game and make him an even more challenging matchup for defenders. I am of the opinion that he still has a ton of development ahead of him, and I’m hoping San Francisco has the development staff necessary to see him through that process.

Passing & Playmaking:

Much like his mid-range/in-between game, Riley is a very limited passer and playmaker for others. I doubt this comes as a shock to you seeing how little he has the ball in his hands, but for the sake of covering every element of his game it’s necessary to talk about his passing. I will say this, his overall feel for the game leaves me hopeful about his long-term outlook as a tertiary passer. I’d also argue that he could easily become a productive kickout passer because of the sheer total of possessions that see him with the ball in his hands near the basket. I doubt passing and playmaking will ever be a major element of his game, but much like his on-ball shot creation, improvements in this department would further bolster his overall offensive versatility.

Rebounding:

Riley’s most unique trait may be his offensive rebounding. For some reason, he is naturally excellent at this aspect of the game. He doesn’t necessarily snag a ton of offensive boards, only 1.8 per game (which is very good for a wing, to be fair). However, what he does do at an extraordinary rate is turn offensive rebounds into immediate points. Not only is he fantastic on tip-ins, but he’s also capable of coming down with the ball, finding stronger scoring position, and then going back up for a bucket. He’s very confident in these situations, and I think this will continue to be a major element of his game going forward.

Riley’s elite vertical pop makes him very good on tip-ins and put-back dunks. That said, what impresses me the most is his willingness to make consistent attempts at getting a hand on the ball in these scenarios. He’s great at finding strong rebounding position and his timing is almost always perfect. As he progresses through his college career and adds strength to his thin frame, I think he will only get better as an offensive rebounder (and defensive rebounder, for what it’s worth).

It’s when he actually comes down with the ball when his skill as an offensive rebounder and immediate offensive converter is most evident. This is where you see him slither around a box out or even jump clear over an interior big for a board. This is where you see how strong his court awareness is, as he’s able to square his body up and go up for an attempt no matter where he finds himself following the rebound. His second jump is incredibly quick, which allows him to get shots off before rim protectors even know where he is. His feel and efficiency in these situations give me a lot of hope not only for his around-the-rim scoring and offensive rebounding games, but also his offensive output as a whole.

Defense:

One could argue that the most promising element of Riley’s game is his defense, and while I would probably still point toward his play finishing, I definitely understand this argument. As far as freshman are concerned, he was about as good on the defensive end as they come. He knows how important his impact on this end is for his team and therefore remains active and aware at all times. He utilizes his elite athleticism, length, and instincts to defend every position other than centers, and does so at a high level. Finally, unlike most players, Riley gives a consistent effort on the defensive end, which, in my opinion, is the most important thing a player can do to ensure that they make an impact on this end of the floor.

Most of his steals are generated away from the ball, but I feel rather confident in his ability both on- and off-the-ball. As far as steals are concerned, he does a great job jumping passing lanes and sneaking his hands into driving lanes. That said, even when he isn’t generating steals, he does a good job of staying with his matchup and makes opposing offenses as stagnant as possible. I wouldn’t call him a pesky defender, but he’s certainly an opportunist who is more than willing to take chances on turning opponents over. What makes him special is that he is successful more often than not when he takes these risks. It’s also important to note that when he does come up with steals, he’s very good at immediately pushing in transition and finishing at the other end for easy points.

He comes up with less blocks than you’d probably expect from someone as defensively talented, athletic, and lanky as Riley. That said, I found that he almost always gives a solid contest and is very good about remaining vertical and not fouling. He averaged only 1.9 fouls per game, a shockingly low number for a defensive specialist such as himself. I do think he could improve as a help side rim protector, but I’m almost certain he will make positive developments in this area throughout his career. Overall, I expect him to be one of the higher upside defensive prospects in whatever draft he does eventually enter, and if he sticks around in college, I could see him eventually transferring up to be a defensive stopper for a national championship caliber team.

Summary:

Before I summarize Riley’s game in its entirety, I want to list out any and all of his weaknesses and flaws. Before I do so, it’s important to remember that every player has countless weaknesses. Even the best players in the world are constantly working to improve their flaws. As long as these weaknesses are viewed that way, as areas in need of improvement, the player will be better for it.

• His physical profile leaves a bit to be desired, but that’s not necessarily something he can totally control. He’s slightly on the shorter side for a wing and could really benefit from adding some weight as long as he’s able to maintain his athletic prowess.

• Can struggle with contact around the rim at times if he’s faced with a truly imposing interior defender. I think he tends to do a good job going through bodies but does struggle with legitimate size at times.

• Because of this, he does tend to avoid contact when given the option. This isn’t inherently a bad thing if it improves his conversion rate, but it does lessen the number of trips he takes to the free-throw line.

• While I do think his dribble-drive shot creation is his best self-creation level, he still has a long way to go. His handle is pretty loose, and he doesn’t create much separation on his drives.

• It’s vital that he strengthens his in-between game, especially regarding floaters and push shots. This may come naturally as he increases his dribble-drive volume, but without adding this element of his game he will never be a truly well-rounded interior scorer.

• His catch-and-shoot outside shooting needs some work, specifically regarding consistent mechanics and his low shooting pocket. That said, I think he’ll eventually be a well above average off-ball shooter.

• His on-ball shot creation from beyond the arc is incredibly limited. Much like his self-creation from other scoring levels, a lot of these issues are because of his weak handle. That said, I saw intriguing flashes from him this year and believe he could develop this part of his game in the future.

• He’s a very limited passer who seems to maintain a one-track mind on the offensive end, that being attack the basket. Developing a stronger passing game, especially when it comes to kickout passing, would go a long way toward making him a more complete offensive player.

• Defensively, he’s pretty solid across the board. The only issues I have with him are that he’ll occasionally take too many risks, sometimes he isn’t strong enough to hold opponents up down low, and he tends to get lazy when he should act as a help side rim protector.

To summarize Tyrone Riley IV’s game, he’s an athletic wing who is already one of the better defensive wings in all of mid-major basketball while still developing as an offensive player. While he is already an excellent off-ball play finisher around and above the rim, the rest of his offensive arsenal still needs a lot of work. Beyond at-the-rim play finishing and catch-and-shoot three-point shooting, Riley is rather limited in every other offensive aspect. That said, he still manages to be an incredibly impactful and efficient player. This fact leads me to believe that if he ever develops into an all-around offensive contributor, he could be one of the better three-and-d wings in all of college basketball.

Based on his long list of suitors once he entered his name into the transfer portal, I assume that more respected basketball minds than me would agree with my sentiments regarding Riley. This is a player that I believe is a very real NBA prospect, and someone that I could see making a professional leap as soon as next year. As much as I’d like to see him remain at the mid-major level throughout his college career, I will admit that this is likely a naive hope. If he does stick around in college, I do expect him to eventually transfer up to the high major level, where I believe he’ll have just as much success as he would have had had he stayed with the Dons. For the time being, us mid-major fans should enjoy him while we can, which won’t be too difficult to do seeing that San Francisco will likely be very good this upcoming season.

There are probably several adequate answers to that question, but I point toward a select group of players as the primary catalyst for the team’s success. In fact, two names in particular stand above the rest: Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev. While Martinez has been fantastic this season, leading the team in points for his senior campaign, it’s Falslev who I want to take a closer look at today. The redshirt sophomore is one of the most interesting underclassmen in the nation; a player who has proven to be incredibly productive despite his undeniably unique playstyle. So, what does Falslev do on the court to separate himself from his peers, how well has he set up his team for tournament success this season, and what do his future prospects look like?

Player Profile:

Mason Falslev is a 6’3” and 200lb redshirt sophomore combo guard from Benson, Utah. He starred at Sky View High School in Smithfield, Utah before joining the Aggies, graduating in 2020 before serving a mission to Brazil. Despite his stardom at Sky View, he was an unheralded three-star recruit out of high school, holding offers from only Utah State and the University of Utah, where he originally committed to play in 2018 before pivoting to the Aggies once he returned from his mission. He redshirted for the 2022-23 season, as Utah State wasn’t in need of extended backcourt depth, before making his official college basketball debut a year later for the 2023-24 season.

Falslev immediately proved to be productive for the Aggies, scoring 17 points in his first organized basketball game in over three years. He went on to post averages of 11.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and .3 blocks per game on shooting splits of 56.2% from the field, 30.5% from beyond the arc, and 64.2% from the free-throw line during his redshirt freshman season.

While his first season with Utah State made it clear that Falslev would be a productive college player, it’s been this season that has cemented him as a potential NBA prospect. So far this year, through 28 games, he’s averaging 14.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.4 steals, and .1 blocks per game on splits of 50.2% from the field, 40.6% from the three-point line, and 56.4% from the charity stripe. He has improved in nearly every category; all while being forced to shoulder a heavier load for the Aggies than he did last season. The question is, apart from roster turnover, what is he doing this year that has led to such dramatic improvement?

Interior Scoring:

Falslev’s offensive skillset is incredibly unique, and his interior scoring is a big reason for that. His well-rounded scoring abilities at the rim are atypical for a small guard, which is exactly why he’s so effective when operating at this range. Not only are opponents not used to defending players like Falslev, but once they do figure out how to slow him down, he’s able to pivot to other elements of his game. His versatility as an interior scorer is already professional-like, and it’s something he’ll be able to hang his hat on throughout his collegiate career.

He possesses a handful of traits that make him an effective on-ball interior scorer, as well as others that limit his ceiling in this department. His ability to accelerate and decelerate on a dime is probably the most important aspect of his game at this level. His quickness enables every other element of his game to work to his advantage. He has an okay handle, but he’s not a good enough ball handler to create consistent space as an on-ball operative, so his ability to accelerate past defenders is vital to create that space. His deceleration skills allow him to maintain that space by throwing off his defender’s timing, giving him better opportunities as a finisher around the rim. He is an impressive finisher with strong touch once he reaches the hoop, but without his strong acceleration he probably wouldn’t get there in the first place.

Because Falslev lacks a few key traits that make elite on-ball scorers elite, he has been forced to adapt to an off-ball role. The good news is that he’s an excellent off-ball scorer. He’s even faster without the ball in his hands, forcing his matchups to sprint marathons throughout games. He’s fantastic at finding open space away from the ball, and he’s an even better finisher in these situations than he is when he’s creating his own shot. He gets off the floor incredibly quickly, so if he receives a pass in a position to immediately go up for a layup he often does so before his defender is able to recover. His herky-jerky start-stop acceleration also applies here, as he utilizes it to consistently get open. All in all, he’s as good as it gets finding strong position without the ball and he creates a ton of easy points around the rim because of this.

A reoccurring theme you will notice in this article is just how effective Falslev is on fast break opportunities. As a scorer, he’s an effective option both on- and off-the-ball. With the ball in his hands, he does similar things to what he does in the half court, but without the limitations as a space creator. Against weakened defenses on transition opportunities, he doesn’t have to worry about his usual concerns as a ball handler and is able to take the ball directly to the hoop in most cases. Without the ball he’s excellent at streaking to the hoop, often times becoming the lob threat that he isn’t in the half court. He’s not a great vertical athlete, but he’s a capable lob finisher if the defense fails to put a body on him. Overall, when Falslev is involved in a fast break situation, his team is going to score more often than not.

Mid-Range Scoring:

Falslev does a lot of his work in the mid-range, giving defenders a ton of issues with his intriguing scoring package from this range. In my opinion, this is where he looks the most like a professional, as he’s considerably more comfortable with the ball in his hands in the mid-range than he is anywhere else. When he’s able to penetrate into this part of the floor; he all of a sudden adds physicality to his already elite craftiness and footwork. In addition to that, he maintains his strong off-ball abilities, making this the most well-rounded aspect of his scoring arsenal. This is both a negative and a positive, as you would much rather him be at his best near the hoop or beyond the arc, but for the time being I still subscribe to the “If it works, it works” philosophy.

As I mentioned, the physicality that Falslev has developed in these situations is not something we see in him elsewhere. On occasion, he can be a tough finisher around the rim, but nothing like how he is in these scenarios. He’s not afraid to throw his body into a bigger defender or put his back to the basket to create space, a trait that has proven successful for smaller guards at higher levels of the sport (see, Jalen Brunson). When switched onto a front court player he will still attempt to back them down, but is able to quickly shift to a footwork-focused strategy if need be. By creating space these ways, he doesn’t have to rely on his average ball handling skills, instead utilizing skills that we typically see from wings and forwards. Much to the theme of this entire article, it’s difficult to deny the uniqueness of his playstyle and effectiveness from this range.

Where he looks more like your average smaller guard from this range is on his floaters and soft touch shots. If defenders don’t step to him quick enough to stop his downhill momentum and force him into his back-to-the-basket game, he will punish opponents with floaters. He is elite on these shots, and because of his acceleration abilities he can create the momentum necessary to get these shots off from almost anywhere on the court. He can also incorporate these shots into his post-up game, adding another layer to his already incredibly unpredictable back-down scoring arsenal. These shots will translate to higher levels of the sport when he inevitably reaches them, as they are perhaps the most important shots for a small guard to master inside of the arc at every level of the game.

Something that he does lack is a strong traditional pull-up game. He occasionally attempts these shots, and looks pretty solid when he does, but I think he lacks confidence when taking them. As we will cover soon, he’s not a great off-the-dribble outside shooter, and I think he knows that’s the case from this range as well. He has the deceleration abilities necessary to be a good pull-up jump shooter, but he just doesn’t seem overly comfortable taking off-the-dribble shots from anywhere outside of the low post. Perhaps this is something that he can develop down the road alongside a stronger on-ball outside shooting game, but for the time being it’s difficult to project him being a good volume shooter on these attempts.

Outside Shooting:

Here is where things start to get super strange, and that’s because his shooting habits from beyond the arc are so incredibly vanilla. It’s unusual for him to be predictable in any area of the game, but his game from the perimeter is relatively uniform at all times. Almost all of his shots from long range come on off-ball actions, and he’s been very impressive on these attempts so far this season. He’s shooting over 40% from deep on just under four attempts per game, and his growth as an outside shooter is one of the biggest reasons why Utah State’s offense has been so potent this year. That said, it’s important to analyze the entire picture when evaluating him as an outside shooter, because there are some indicators suggesting this could be an outlier shooting season for Falslev.

For a guy who does so much of his work on the offensive end while moving his feet, he’s very strong on standstill catch-and-shoot attempts from deep. As far as professional production is concerned, this is probably the most promising element of his beyond-the-arc arsenal. Almost all of his issues as a shooter occur when he puts the ball on the floor, suggesting that he’s simply not the greatest movement shooter. At the very least, he’s worse with movement than he is with his feet planted. So, while some statistics point toward his development as a sharpshooter being somewhat fraudulent, I do expect him to maintain strong numbers on catch-and-shoot looks throughout his career.

Even his “moving” attempts from beyond the arc don’t involve a ton of movement. For the most part, his movement on these looks is restricted to rhythm steps. That said, him looking comfortable and confident when taking those rhythm steps could suggest that a more well-rounded movement shooting package may come down the road. That development could be well into the future, which is always concerning for an older player like Falslev. Much like his standstill catch-and-shoot looks, I feel relatively confident that his growth in this area is real, but I’m not entirely convinced. I would like to see him maintain his 40+% output throughout the remainder of the season to build confidence in his outlook as an outside shooter.

I watched a ton of his games from this season (probably around fifteen) in preparation for this article, and this dribble-out three following an offensive rebound was the only real off-the-dribble three I remember him making. I’m not sure what it is, but he’s just not a very good off-the-dribble shooter from either the perimeter or just inside of it. His incredibly poor free-throw shooting percentages throughout the first two seasons of his college career further suggests a low ceiling and even lower floor as a deep threat. He also doesn’t attempt a great volume of outside shots, as I would like him to take over five attempts per game at his current percentage. All in all, I’m comfortable projecting Falslev to be a solid outside shooter throughout the rest of his college career, but if his numbers do fall off next season, I wouldn’t be incredibly shocked.

Passing & Playmaking:

Falslev’s swing skill is probably his passing, an element of his game that I think flies under the radar. His 3.8 assists per game is a solid number no doubt, but I believe he’s a far better passer and playmaker than that number suggests. His off-ball acumen has led to deflated assist numbers, and if he were ever able to transition into a full-time point guard role, I believe he could become a 5-6+ assist per game player. He’s an excellent processor with an advanced understanding of his gravity and when to release to a teammate near the hoop or to an open shooter beyond the arc. Everything we’ve talked about so far regarding his scoring ability allows him to manipulate the defense, which makes his job as a passer significantly easier.

He’s at his best as a passer once he has penetrated the paint, forcing defenders to collapse on him if they don’t want him to go to work as a scorer from this range. He has perfect release timing, finding teammates as soon as their defender gets far enough away from them that recovery isn’t an option. This is also where he’s at his best finding teammates along the perimeter, as his gravity often leaves open shooters standing still beyond the arc. Utah State is an excellent three-point shooting team, making this skill an incredibly dangerous one in his current situation. This elite productivity within a three-point shooting focused offense is a big reason why I think Falslev could potentially succeed in the NBA, a league in the midst of a three-point renaissance.

Falslev is an excellent overhead entry passer, specifically when throwing lobs to rolling bigs. His ability to consistently put these passes on a dime from the perimeter is a skill that not many players possess. He’s able to throw these passes over taller defenders and is lethal when defenders fail to switch and leave two opponents facing him. His ability to maintain his composure and deliver perfect passes in these situations is something we only see from the best floor generals in the game. That said, Falslev isn’t a floor general; he’s an off-ball agent. It’s his elite passing abilities that suggest just how good he could be if he was able to transition into a full-time facilitator role.

As I mentioned, Falslev is a legitimate weapon in transition. Not only is he a very effective scorer both with and without the ball, but he’s also a very talented fast-paced passer. He gets the ball down the court incredibly quickly, regularly throwing full court passes on a dime the second the ball touches his fingers. His teammates have gotten incredibly good at getting loose in the fast break as soon as they see Falslev going up for a rebound, and he’s gotten even better at finding them. When he does decide to keep the ball in his hands, or when he himself receives a down-court pass, he suddenly becomes an elite lob passer to teammates who stick with him on the break. All in all, he’s incredibly effective as a scorer and passer in these situations, making him an almost unstoppable threat in the open court.

Defense:

Falslev is an interesting defender, because he does what he needs to do to succeed but still has a relatively low ceiling on this end of the floor. He averages a staggering 2.4 steals per game, a number that is directly related to his elite feel for the game, advanced timing, and solid hands. He’s a pest, primarily operating away from the ball to offer support and force turnovers on blindsided opponents. He’s a post-up player’s worst nightmare, regularly coasting into the paint to strip the ball away and kickstart fast break opportunities. That said, he has legitimate flaws on the defensive end, and players with a similar defensive outlook as Falslev don’t always have the strongest defensive reputations at the professional level.

There’s no denying that Falslev is an annoying defender. He’s the type of player that you despise matching up against when you go out for a pick-up game. He constantly pesters and prods opponents who are more focused on their primary defender than they are on Falslev. He’s also solid in passing lanes, utilizing his quick first step, impressive timing, and good hands to snag steals out of the air when opponents make a lazy pass. However, small guards with good defensive instincts who are better away from the ball than on it don’t always have the strongest defensive outlooks in the pros (see, Reed Sheppard just last year). These players can still be solid defenders, but they won’t be as effective against professional opponents as they are against collegiate ones.

As a primary defender, Falslev has an intriguing game. He’s not great against quick guards or athletic wings, as his limited athleticism is often exposed by these players. He’s not a bad lateral mover, but he’s not great at recovering once he’s been beaten and he’s not strong enough to stand up opponents once they’re near the basket. That said, his peskiness does translate to his on-ball defense, especially when he finds himself switched onto poor ball handlers. He’s great against stretch bigs, as they are perimeter players who he can stick with laterally. He does generate a solid number of steals in these situations, but obviously he doesn’t find himself in these spots incredibly often.

As far as rim protection and shot blocking is concerned, I doubt it will come as a shock to you that he isn’t very effective. Not only is he a 6’3” guard who is rarely in position to protect the hoop, but he’s also not much of a vertical athlete. Sometimes you’ll see similar players picking up blocks on the help side, but Falslev doesn’t even go up for them. I’m fine with this, as it limits his fouls and allows him to stay on the court, which is significantly more important for his team than the occasional block.

I’ll include this here even if it doesn’t technically fit; Falslev is an excellent rebounding guard. He does most of his work on the defensive glass, a system decision that allows Utah State to quickly get into the fast break. That said, he does grab more offensive rebounds than you would expect and is great at quickly getting off the ground once he does snags them for easy baskets. I’m not sure how well this will translate to higher levels in the future as he is a small guard without much leaping ability, but I’m fairly confident projecting him to be an above average rebounder relative to his peers.

Summary:

Before I summarize Falslev’s game, I want to list out any and all of his weaknesses and flaws. I include this disclaimer in all my player breakdowns, but it’s important to remember that every player has flaws and that these should be seen as areas in need of improvement. It’s also important to remember that Falslev was away from the game for three years, so his development path is probably going to be significantly different than most players, making his growth in certain areas more difficult to predict.

• Despite being a twitchy mover with fantastic stop-start acceleration, his handle lags behind the rest of his body, limiting his on-ball capabilities.

• While he is a solid finisher around the rim, he avoids contact at all costs to limit his trips to the charity stripe. This shouldn’t be the case considering that he’s an effective finisher through said contact.

• Because he doesn’t get off the ground well, much of his at-the-rim offense is quickly snuffed out by good rim protectors. His floater is useful in these situations, but that shot is only available when he’s farther from the hoop.

• His traditional pull-up game is poor, and he rarely even attempts these shots. This is almost a required shot for players of Falslev’s archetype, and his inability to make them and avoidance of taking them will hold him back in the long term.

• He doesn’t take off-the-dribble threes, which is strange for a 6’3” combo guard who has the ball in his hands quite often. It’s even stranger considering how good of a shooting season he is putting together. This raises questions about his long-term outlook as a shooter.

• He’s an awful free-throw shooter, just awful. He’s about as bad from the charity stripe as I’ve ever seen from a guard. His mechanics totally fall apart as soon as he steps to the line. It seriously seems like a case of the yips, and it’s been an ongoing case for two years now.

• He’s a below average on-ball defender, mostly because of his athletic and size limitations. These are not things he can make substantial improvements in, which leads to concerns regarding his long-term outlook as a defender.

• He isn’t an effective help side rim protector, but I’m not sure how real of a concern this is. I highly doubt a coaching staff will ever be overly upset about this fact, especially if he’s making a strong effort in every other defensive aspect.

Summarizing Mason Falslev’s game is a difficult thing to do, because he fits into an archetype that I’m not used to evaluating. He’s an incredibly strong off-ball guard, constantly moving in the half court to find strong scoring position at all three levels. He has shown flashes of being an effective on-ball agent, especially as a passer, but still has a long way to go as a ball handler before he can transition into a full-time point guard role. Because of his size and athletic limitations, it’s incredibly important that Falslev eventually become a real point guard. If this does happen, his game will change tremendously. I believe he could be one of the better passing guards in the nation but will have to make significant changes to his scoring arsenal to do so. That said, it’s clear that this change would maximize his ceiling and raise his floor.

For the time being, Falslev is an incredibly effective operative away from the ball for a Utah State team that will almost definitely make noise in March and April. His path has been a strange one, seeing that he graduated high school the same year as Hunter Dickinson but is only in his second year of college basketball. This means he will be an incredibly old senior in two years, something that is becoming more and more valuable in the college basketball ecosystem. If he remains with the Aggies, expect him to be in contention for the best mid-major player in the country in the years to come. If he decides to transfer up to the high major level, he could become an intriguing cog on a contending team. Finally, I’m not entirely sure what his outlook as a professional is, but it’s difficult to deny the level of feel that Falslev brings to the table. All in all, he’s an incredibly entertaining player who I believe still has a lot more in the tank, and I think he’s a player worth following closely throughout the remainder of his basketball career.