The Ohio Valley is trending upward. After flailing a bit with the departures of Belmont and Murray State, the conference put together it’s best holistic year since 2022. The battle down the stretch for the top of the conference was a blast to watch and SEMO was right at the top the entire time. However, they ultimately fell to Morehead State in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament 66-61 after taking down Lindenwood the day prior.

Coming into last year, the Redhawks were a veteran team with the majority of their roster being upperclassmen. With that in mind, the coaching staff and fans knew that it was going to be an eventfully offseason, essentially building an entirely new roster from scratch. Let’s take a look at who the Redhawks have added for the 2026-2027 season.

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Roster Turnover

• Blaize Sagna (Ineligible)

  • 1.5 points, 1 rebound

• Elliot Lowndes (Ineligible)

  • 2.5 points, 1.3 rebounds

• BJ Ward (Senior) → East Tennessee State

  • 10.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists

• Troy Cole Jr. (Senior) → TBD

  • 4.2 points, 2.3 rebounds

• Luke Almodovar (Senior) → Memphis

  • 14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1 steal

• Brendan Terry (Senior) → TBD

  • 11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2 assists

• David Idada (Senior) → TBD

  • 1.8 points, 2.5 rebounds

• Saxton Hoepker (Senior) → TBD

  • DNP (Walk-On)

• Braxton Stacker (Senior) → TBD

  • 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists

It should have been no surprise for SEMO fans that they’d be facing nearly an entire new roster coming into the 2026-2027 season. Just two players technically transferred from SEMO to another program, with both making jumps to tougher conferences. Luke Almodovar has now gone from NAIA to Memphis just two two seasons, using his standout season at SEMO to jump him up to the AAC. On the other hand, BJ Ward who was in the top three of production for the Redhawks last season landed in the SoCon with East Tennessee State.

Several additional players that were seniors last season hit the transfer portal in search of additional eligibility, but none have broken through and landed on another roster thus far.

Returning Players

• Marqueas Bell (Senior)

  • 9.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists

• Landren Blocker (Junior)

  • 5.2 points, 3.8 rebounds

• P.J. Farmer (Sophomore)

  • 1.9 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1 assist

• Trace Sadler (Sophomore)

  • 0.9 points, 0.4 rebounds (13 games / 3.8 minutes)

• Jay Reynolds (Sophomore)

  • 1.2 points (10 games / 5.1 minutes)

SEMO was a very veteran heavy team last season, so the staff and fans knew that they’d be returning few players. However, they did bring back two rotational players in Marqueas Bell & Landren Blocker.

Bell averaged 9.1 points and 5.2 rebounds in just 22 minutes per game while shooting 52.5% overall and 30.8% from beyond the arc. The 6’3 guard finished with a 108.3 offensive rating, 12.1% defensive rebounding percentage which was 122nd overall, and a 15.0 assist rate. In conference player, his metrics skyrocketed as he finished 16th in offensive rating, third in defensive rebounding percentage, 19th in assist rate, 25th in two-point shooting percentage, and 7th in fouls drawn per game. He was streaky, with six out of 20 games in conference seeing him finish with just two points, but when he gets hot on offense he’s phenomenal. Against Lindenwood, he had 25 points with five rebounds, and he finished with 22 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists against Tennessee State who would go on to win the OVC Tournament.

Blocker transferred in from Louisiana Tech last season and he jumped into SEMO’s lineup. He appeared in 33 games, started in 28, and averaged 5.2 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 60.8% overall and 41.7% from beyond the arc on 24 attempts. He’s a 6’5 guard that is incredible on the defensive end. During the regular season, he had a 4.3% block percentage which was 241st overall and a 3% steal percentage which was 214th with a 10.4% offensive rebounding percentage which was 223rd. In the OVC, he jumped to 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, 5th in block percentage, and 6th in steal percentage. He’s the type of player that when he takes on a larger role this season, he could breakout.

PJ Farmer saw a little bit of playing time as a freshman, appearing in 32 games and averaging 9.3 minutes per game. The 6’2 guard averaged 1.9 points and 1.4 rebounds while shooting 41.4% from the floor. He struggled from three-point, completing just two of his 19 attempts, but he shot 56.4% from inside the arc. Farmer has a lot of potential, so you should look for him to take another step forward this season as his role expands.

Trace Sadler & Jay Reynolds both saw minimal time on the floor during their freshman seasons last year. Sadler is a 7’0 center in which most of his production came against two non-division one opponents. He did however, convert his one attempt against Iowa. Reynolds similarly saw most of his production come against SEMO’s non-division one opponents. Both will provide depth roles for the Redhawks this coming season.

Roster Additions

• Fontaine Williams (West Texas A&M ~ DII)

  • 20.5 points, 2.5 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals

• Clayton Jewell (Colorado Mesa ~ DII)

  • 11.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1 steal

• Marcus Eaves (John A Lohan ~ JUCO)

  • 9.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists

• Kycen Pruett (College of Coastal Georgia ~ NAIA)

  • 8.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists

• Darrion Sutton (Missouri State)

  • 4.6 points, 4.3 rebounds

• Alonzo Clawson-Smith (IU - Kokomo ~ NAIA)

  • 18.8 points, 6 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 2 steals

• Drew Cooper (Bossier Parish Community College ~ JUCO)

  • 15.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists

• Curtis (Champ) Simpson (Freshman)

• Axton Perry (Freshman)

Guards

Fontaine Williams (6’2)

Well will you look at that, another Barton CC product! I feel like I write about a player with some connection to Barton in nearly every review. Williams started his career at Seward County CC before jumping to Barton where he saw success, which led to him jumping to the Division II ranks at West Texas A&M last season. He took off in his junior season, averaging 20.5 points, 2.5 assists, two rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 45.7% overall and 41.5% from three-point.

He has a knack for getting to the free throw line as well. He attempted 200 shots from the line last season, with the next closest on the team being 99. Of those 200, he converted a whopping 173 for an 86.5% shooting clip.

We have seen plenty of talent from Division II, JUCO, and NAIA over the recent years take flight in the Ohio Valley Conference and I have no doubt that with his tremendous scoring abilities you’ll see the same from Williams this season.

Marcus Eaves (6’4)

John A Logan has produced a lot of strong basketball talent over the years and Eaves is looking to add his name to the list of successful alumni. He finished his freshman season while averaging 9.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and a shade over one steal per game while shooting 48.5% overall and 34.3% from beyond the arc.

What I love about his game is his toughness. He can stretch you outside as he took 70 shots from three-point, but he can fight through track while finishing strong around the rim. He isn’t going to be a leading point guard, but he offers the much needed skillset of a secondary guard to compliment someone like Alonzo Clawson-Smith. Look for Eaves to play a lot of minutes off the bench this season and even potentially jump into the lineup later in the year if his development is successful.

Alonzo Clawson-Smith (6’0)

Clawson-Smith proved that he had Division I talent immediately as a freshman at IU Kokomo this past season. We’re seeing a lot of NAIA stars making their way to Division I and now he’ll be yet another to make waves in the Ohio Valley Conference next season. The 6’0 guard averaged 18.8 points with six assists and 5.5 rebounds per game while shooting 56% overall and 36.1% from beyond the arc. He isn’t a volume three-point shooter as he took just 61 attempts, which came out to roughly 18.8% of his total shots. However, he also plays strong on-ball defense as he racked up a shade over two assists per game.

You probably haven’t heard of him before this post, but he’s a name that you need to put him on your radar. With his incredible offensive prowess and ability to serve as a floor general as he averaged 2.4 turnovers per game compared to his six assists, he’ll be making a name for himself at the Division I level. Look for him to potentially be on the All-OVC First Team in year one.

Kycen Pruett (6’4)

Pruett appeared in just 13 games before cutting his season short due to an injury at NAIA College of Coastal Georgia. He averaged 8.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game during that stretch while shooting 37.3% overall and 39.7% from beyond the arc. 71.5% of his shot attempts came from three-point, marking his as truly a three-point specialist. Against FAU, he finished with 13 points in 20 minutes, and in total he averaged 10 points in their three games against Division I opponents while shooting 53% from three-point.

The 6’4 guard actually started his career at Marshall where he spent two seasons and appeared in 17 games. He didn’t see a ton of playing time, but served as a depth shooter on the bench.

I don’t expect him to jump to the starting lineup, but he can provide a spark off the bench when the right lineup fits to favor the three-point shot.

Curtis (Champ) Simpson (6’2)

Head Coach Brad Korn called Champ Simpson a bit of a diamond in the rough type player, and it’s easy to see why. He provides a ton of energy, and he had an electric career at Chattahoochee County High School where he averaged 26.5 points and 8.7 assists per game his senior season. That was good enough to earn Tennessee Player of the Year in Class A D-II. With the strong guards they have, I believe he’ll take a developmental year, but he can easily develop into a strong guard for SEMO in the coming years.

Simpson had one other offer from UCF.

Forwards

Clayton Jewell (6’9)

Jewell spent his sophomore season at Colorado Mesa where he averaged 11.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 blocks, and one steal per game while shooting 49.8% overall from the floor. He isn’t a volume three-point shooter, but I do want to call out that he shot 30.4% on 23 attempts, so there’s some skill there. For a more traditional “big man”, he converts well at the free throw line as he shot 83.1% on his 89 attempts throughout the season.

With the Redhawks losing Brendan Terry from last season, Jewell is going to be able to slot right into his position as a replacement. While I don’t know if he’s a 1:1 replacement on the offensive end, he is a stronger rebounder and should present an improvement on the defensive end with a bit more height where he can fit well into the 5 spot.

Darrion Sutton (6’9)

The Redhawks have found themselves their defensive anchor for next season in Darrion Sutton. He spent his freshman season at Georgia Tech where he appeared in 18 games and started one while averaging 1.3 points and 1.6 rebounds per game. Coming out of high school, he held offers from Seton Hall, Providence, Florida State, Butler, and many other power conference programs.

After his freshman season, he transferred to Missouri State last year where he averaged 4.6 points and 4.3 rebounds per game while shooting 53.6% overall. He did knock down four of his 13 shot attempts from beyond the arc as well. He posted some strong stat lines, including 12 points with 5 rebounds against Xavier, seven points with 10 rebounds, four assists, and three steals against Arkansas State, and seven points with 11 rebounds against FIU in just 16 minutes.

Looking at his metrics, he finished with a 111.1 offensive rating, 23.5% defensive rebound percentage, 12.7% offensive rebound percentage, and a remarkable 5.6% block percentage. This is the type of player that with his inevitable expanded opportunity this season, he’ll be able to take off and become a crucial player in the starting lineup for SEMO.

Drew Cooper (6’8)

Cooper put up a strong season in the JUCO ranks at Bossier Parish Community College last season. The 6’8 forward averaged 15.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, ad 1.3 assists per game while shooting 41.2% overall and 34.8% from three-point on 227 attempts.

He is going to fit into the forward position well for the Redhawks because he compliments both Jewell and Sutton well. He’ll be able to provide them with an additional shooter from outside, while still not forfeiting defense inside the paint. He won’t rack up the offensive boards as he had just 32 in 31 games, but he’ll be able to stretch the floor with his height and assist in disrupting defenses to force opposing big men to cover him outside.

Axton Perry (6’8)

Perry is a developmental big man who poses a lot of upside on both the offensive and defensive ends. He features a 6’11 wingspan. He has fantastic athleticism that is going to translate easily to the Division I level. During the TSSAA Class 4A state championship game, Perry finished with 15 points, 6 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 4 steals for Bartlett who defeated Walker Valley 69-47. I don’t believe he’ll take on a massive role his freshman season, but I’d be shocked if you don’t see him on the court earning minutes while he develops for the coming years.

Perry held offers from Miami Ohio, Murray State, UT Martin, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

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Expectations

The Ohio Valley Conference is going to continue to be a wide-open conference in this era of the transfer portal as most teams will see a plethora of players being one-and-done or staying just two seasons. This means that the head coaches of teams in this conference are going to have to get creative and they are doing just that. We’ve talked a lot about Jeremy Shulman’s international recruiting at UT Martin, while Brian Barone has done some tremendous recruiting in JUCO, and Brad Korn now has assembled a strong roster of talent from all levels outside of Division I (DII, JUCO, and NAIA).

Looking at the roster this far, I’d be stunned not to see Alonzo Clawson-Smith, Darius Sutton, and Fontaine Williams in the starting line up. Clawson-Smith put up prolific numbers as a point guard, then Williams can slot in as the two-guard and provide you with strong offense, and Sutton can hold down the paint with his defense and still pose a threat on offense. For the other two spots, I think it is more wide open, but look for Drew Cooper to slide in at the four given his outstanding offensive numbers in JUCO or Clayton Jewell if they want to go with more of a true “big man” given then he is a strong disrupter inside. For the final spot, it’ll probably be between Landren Blocker and Marqueas Bell. I’d lean Blocker because he provides a bit more height at 6’5 so he could slot into the three-spot. However, Bell is a strong rebounder at just 6’3, but neither are really strong three-point shooters so I could see that going either way. Don’t forget about Trace Sadler either. At 7’0, he is the tallest and only player with true “center height” on the roster, so you should be seeing plenty of him as a sophomore.

The beauty about this roster is, you really can mix-and-match the starting lineup and it’s reasonable to expect that there will be some changes during the non-conference as Brad Korn figures out exactly who he wants in the lineup every game.

The only concern I have on this roster is the overall lack of height. As I mentioned previously, Trace Sadler is the only true “center” on the roster at 7’0, but there are others like Jewell and Sutton that come in at 6’9. We didn’t see a ton of Sadler last season, so it’s hard to say on June 8th that he’s going to be the starting center, but regardless when he isn’t in the lineup you are going to have two 6’9 forwards to hold down the paint by themselves. While that won’t always be an issue at this level, it is something to watch out for once they get into Ohio Valley Conference play.

I’m going to continue to stay this until at the earliest August or September, but I’m not going to try and predict where this team might fall in their conference. When you are pulling in a ton of talent without Division I experience, it’s hard to predict. It becomes even more difficult when nearly every other team in the conference is doing the same thing. However, I will say that I would be thoroughly shocked if we don’t see a third consecutive 20+ win season from SEMO. The majority of these players dominated at their respective levels, and that will translate to this level. Keep at eye on the Redhawks next season!

The first team of the season we’re covering is the Bradley Braves. The Braves have been a consistent force in the Missouri Valley Conference since the 2017-2018 season where they finished 20-13 overall. Since, they’ve had seven 20+ win seasons, including a record of 114-58 overall and 68-30 in the MVC over the last five seasons. Despite this success, they haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2019.

Last season looked promising, with blossoming star Jaquan Johnson returning to Peoria, but they ultimately fell to Northern Iowa in Arch Madness. They appeared in the NIT, but were bounced in the first round to Dayton by a score of 80-66.

With nearly an entirely new roster coming in, there are going to be a lot of new faces for the Braves this season. Let’s take a look at who’s new on the roster.

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Roster Turnover

• Alex Huibregste (Ineligible)

  • 12.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists

• A.J. Smith (Ineligible)

  • 8.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals

• Ahmet Jonovic (Ineligible)

  • 8.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks

• Corey Thomas (Ineligible)

  • 5.4 points, 3.6 rebounds

• Jaquan Johnson (Junior) → Iowa State

  • 16.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.5 steals

• Handy Toussaint III (Senior) → TBD

  • 0.8 rebounds (5 games / 2 minutes)

• Demarion Burch (Senior) → Illinois State

  • 8.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, one assist

• Kai Yu (Junior) → Valparaiso

  • 2.7 points, 1.9 rebounds

• Montana Wheeler (Sophomore) → Kansas State

  • 8.5 points, 1.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists

• Matthew Zobrist (Sophomore) → Belmont

  • 1.5 points, 0.4 rebounds (13 games / 5 minutes)

The Bradley Braves made waves last year, returning some yet players including Jaquan Johnson & Demarion Burch. Johnson was on breakout alert and he did just that, jumping from 6.6 points per game to 16.9 points per game while being an absolute force on the court. At just 5’11, you would think he’d be disadvantaged, but he is built like a rock and uses that to his advantage. Now, he cashed out and will be headed to Iowa State.

Burch has been catching heat on the internet as he committed to in-state rival Illinois State after spending the past three seasons at Bradley. He has consistently improved each season, developing into a key player in the rotation. Last year, he stepped up into a wider role as he started in 16 of his 26 games while shooting 40.4% overall and averaging a career high 8.8 points.

Promising freshman Montana Wheeler was looking like a guard that should be on star watch in the Missouri Valley, but Kansas State picked him up this offseason. All-in-all, the Braves lost three players to other Missouri Valley Conference programs while they lost nearly their entire roster, but tis the life of a mid-major.

Returning Players

• Timoty van der Knaap (Junior)

  • 6.5 points, 4.8 rebounds

• Dietrich Richardson (Sophomore)

  • 2.3 points, 0.8 rebounds

• Jackson Seastrunk (Freshman)

  • DNP ~ Redshirt

• Gustavo Guimaraes (Freshman)

  • DNP ~ Redshirt

• Gus Rugaard (Junior)

  • Walk-on

Timoty van der Knaap (6’8)

As I hinted in the prior section, the Bradley Braves are not returning a lot of talent from their prior season. However, Timoty van der Knaap was a solid return for Coach Wardle. The Italian forward jumped from a bench piece his freshman season to appearing in 34 games, starting 11, and averaging 22.8 minutes per game. He shot 42.9% overall from the floor, but just 23.1% from beyond the arc on nearly two attempts per game. From inside the arc, he shot 53.7% against Division I talent.

On the glass, he’s already shown what he can do. He finished with an 8.7% offensive rebounding percentage which was 375th overall and a 16.5% defensive rebounding percentage. Both jumped when he got into conference player to 9% & 17.7% respectively.

If he can work on his outside game, the talent is there on the boards and he can turn himself into an absolute force in the Missouri Valley.

Dietrich Richardson (6’7)

Coming out of high school, Richardson was well regarded. He held offers from Wyoming, DePaul, Xavier, Saint Louis, Virginia Tech, Illinois, and many more high-profile programs as he was listed as a both a 3-star and 4-star recruit on varying platforms.

He played sporadically as a freshman, appearing in 18 games and averaging 7.2 minutes per game. His best game of the year came against Illinois State where he finished with nine points and three rebounds in 20 minutes. He isn’t afraid to shoot as he finished with ten shots in that game, six shots in 12 minutes against Belmont & Murray State, and four shots against Northern Illinois in just five minutes.

There is no doubt that Richardson has some strong raw potential and he’ll have ample opportunities this coming season to tap into that and become a valuable player for the Braves.

Freshmen & Walk-Ons

Both Jackson Seastrunk and Gustavo Guimaraes redshirt last season as freshmen. Seastrunk is a 6’5 guard out of Xavier Academy that held just one offer from Bradley. Guimaraes hails from Brazil, and the 6’11 center choose Bradley over Jacksonville, UMass, U-Albany, and Drexel. In both cases, I envision these players will be taking a developmental season with depth roles on the bench in the 2026-2027 season.

Gus Rugaard is entering his three season as a walk-on for Bradley. Last year, he appeared in seven games and did not score on either of his two shot attempts.

Roster Additions

• Trevon Payton (Senior) - Arkansas-Pine Bluff

  • 10 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1 steal

• Kyle Grill (Senior) - Fort Hays State (D-II)

  • 13.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists

• Ben Thornbrue (Junior) - College of Southern Idaho (JUCO)

  • 12.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.4 blocks

• Josh Ibukunoluwa (Junior) - High Point

  • 2.8 points, 2 rebounds

• Noah Williams (Sophomore) - Barton CC (JUCO)

  • 15.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1 steal

• Xander Alarie (Sophomore) - Northeastern

  • 10.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.3 blocks

• Dimitrije Pavlovic (Freshman)

• Georgi Gerganov (Freshman)

• Race Kowalczyk (Freshman)

Guards

Trevon Payton (6’5)

Payton previously played at Limestone University, which has since shutdown thus making his deeper statistics difficult to find. Per his profile at Bradley, he appeared in 28 games his Sophomore season where he averaged 13.2 points, six rebounds, and two assists per game while shooting 47.5% overall and 39.2% from three-point. Following the disruption at Limestone, he transferred to Arkansas-Pine Bluff where he took no time adjusting to the Division I level. He averaged 10 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists and one steal per game while shooting 51.9% from the floor and an incredible 47.1% from beyond the arc.

When playing in a conference like the SWAC, you might look at his statistics and expect more out of someone making the jump all the way to the Missouri Valley Conference, but let’s look at his games against tough talent in the non-conference. He finished with 22 points against Vanderbilt, 13 points with five rebounds and three assists against SMU, 11 points with three rebounds and two assists against Oklahoma, and 13 points with five rebounds and five assists against the Arch Madness Runner-up UIC.

When looking at his box scores, his story becomes clear. He focuses on efficiency over volume in all aspects of his game. His 65.1% effective field goal percentage was 26th in the country while his 66% true shooting percentage was 29th overall. Both jumped to 70.5% & 70.7% in conference play in which both were the best in the SWAC. He will stuff the stat sheet and provide the Braves with an important role in the rotation.

Kyle Grill (6’6)

Kyle Grill is going to help fill the offensive void that has been left for the Braves. At Fort Hays State last year, he averaged 13.3 points while shooting 44.7% overall and 33.8% from beyond the arc. As the year went on, he got better-and-better offensively. Over his last five games of the season, he averaged 15 points per game. After his strong season, he was an Honorable Mention on the All-MIAA team in both of the prior two seasons.

At 6’6, he fits into the 3-and-D wing role well. He finished with double-digit rebounds twice and he isn’t going to be a passing threat. However, he can be a menace on-ball as well as he finished with three steals against Southwest Minnesota State. He’s the type of player that when he’s hot, he can change the game for his team.

Dimitrije Pavlovic (6’5)

Pavlovic is an incoming freshman from Serbia. He attended the International Sports Academy at Hoosac School in New York last year, but prior to that he played for KK FMP SOCCERBET BEOGRAD in the SRB-3 League in Serbia. He averaged 10.2 points, 5.9 assists, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game during the 2024-2025 season. He’s shown the potential of becoming a floor general with strong playmaking abilities at a young age. The Braves lack a true point guard this season, so I will not be shocked if you see Pavlovic earning minutes early in the season.

Race Kowalczyk (6’6)

Kowalczyk had offers from Wyoming, Green Bay, UC Irvine, and Toledo coming out of St. John’s Jesuit in Toledo, Ohio. He finished his high school career in the top 10 scorers all right while averaging nearly 20 points per game and shot roughly 42% from beyond the arc. Bradley has shown a tendency to redshirt freshman, so given the other additions on the roster I could see Kowalczyk going either way, one taking a redshirt year and the other playing a depth role to develop and provide some offense off the bench.

Georgi Gerganov (6’5)

Gerganov is currently 22 years old, but will be 23 by the time his freshman season begins. He absolutely dominated in the NBL last season for BC Botev 2012, averaging 21.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. He shot 47.7% overall and 35.2% from beyond the arc. He’s played professionally since 2019, bouncing between Tundja Yambol, Balkan, and then BC Botev last year were he put up his best season to date.

He is physical, a playmaker, and a sharpshooter. There is no doubt that he’ll be playing from day-one for the Braves and should be on fans of other Missouri Valley Conference teams’ radar.

Forwards

Noah Williams (6’8)

Barton College continues to produce Division I talent as they are a true pipeline from JUCO to the highest level of college basketball. Williams originally committed to CSUN where he redshirt his freshman season before transferring to Barton College. He went on to average 15.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game while shooting 43.8% overall and 32.8% from beyond the arc.

Williams took flight as the year went on and posted some incredible stat lines. He finished the season averaged 19.8 points & 7.8 rebounds. He’s a magnet on the glass as he even finished with 17 rebounds in a game, and double-digit rebounds in seven games. At 6’8 he is a bit undersized to serve as a “true-center”, however, his abilities are going to allow him to move quickly down low and carve his way through defenders which being a menace on rebounds.

Xander Alarie (6’8)

Northeastern had a wild season as they started off 4-5 with some nice wins over Harvard & Duquesne, while dropping close games to Boston U, Vermont, Rhode Island, and even keeping up with Wake Forest and Syracuse. They proceeded to finish the regular season just 6-23 overall, but they lost a huge piece to their early success in Xander Alarie.

In just eleven games before going down with an injury that ended his season, he had three double-doubles including some incredible stat lines like 23 points and 11 rebounds against Harvard, 13 points and 13 rebounds against Colgate, and 19 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists against Syracuse. In their win against Duquesne, he had just five points, but finished with six rebounds, three assists, and five blocks.

Looking at his metrics, he finished with a 101.8 offensive rating, 23.4% defensive rebounding percentage, and a ridiculous 5% block percentage. This leaves the question, what could he have done if he had stayed healthy. Regardless, he is going to play a large role for the Braves this season as long as he has fully recovered from his shoulder injury.

Ben Thornbrue (6’8)

Thornbrue is another JUCO transfer coming into Bradley after a successful year at the College of Southern Idaho. He averaged 12.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 45.7% overall. He isn’t a three-point threat, but he did knock down 19 last season on 66 attempts. In the National Championship game, he finished with 21 points against Howard College.

Similar to Williams, he can be a magnet on the glass which has clearly been an emphasis that Coach Wardle wanted to address this offseason. Thornbrue finished the season averaging eight rebounds per game over his last five, while posting three games on the season with double-digit rebounds.

His ability to block shots is what really stands out. He had 4+ blocks twice and 3+ blocks five times. You can imagine that if you pair him in the lineup with Williams that you are going to have two defensive magnets while Thornbrue can cover more of the “true-center” role even at just 6’8.

Josh Ibukunoluwa (6’10)

Ibukunoluwa spent his last two seasons at High Point where he appeared in 41 games total, averaging three points and 2.4 rebounds per game while shooting 59.5% overall. His best game of the season came against a non-division I program, but he did finish with a solid line against Winthrop with four points, five assists, one assist, and two blocks.

With the minimal playing time, his metrics are skewed, but show promising upside. He finished with a 144.5 offensive rating, 61.9% true shooting percentage, 13.4% offensive rebounding percentage, 13.8% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 3.1% block percentage.

He is a bit of a raw talent, but he will provide the Braves with some much needed height so he shouldn’t be left without a lot of opportunities to see the court.

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Expectations

Brian Wardle and his staff had a tall task to replace some of their top players that departed from last season, but they’ve pieced together a very intriguing roster.

There is a ton of developmental talent. All of the freshman and redshirt freshman from last season have high upside, while admittedly I don’t know if you can call Georgia Gerganov a “true freshman” at 23 years old. What I like though is the fact that they pieced together some players with experience from different levels that are going to be able to compliment the overall lack of experience.

For example, as I highlighted with Trevon Payton, he isn’t going to light it up on scoring, but he has a tremendous basketball IQ and will stuff the box score with assists and rebounds while still giving you 8-10 points a game. Xander Alarie had what was looking like a stellar freshman season cut short at Northweastern. Then Kyle Grill, Noah Williams, & Ben Thornbrue both have valuable experience and put up strong metrics at their respective non-division one.

I’m not going to attempt to predict a starting lineup on June 1st, but I imagine that one could see Timoty van der Knaap, Xander Alarie, Kyle Grill, Georgi Gerganov in the lineup. My largest concern is their point guard play and lack of height. Josh Ibukunoluwa is the only player 6’10 or taller on the roster and he’s appeared in just 41 division one games within minimal minutes in his career thus far. They don’t have a true “standard” point guard either, a role that Jaquan Johnson formed into with Montana Wheeler as a secondary option.

While they do lack height, rebounding was a clear focus point for Wardle’s staff this offseason. Noah Williams has the potential to make a huge impact in year one for the Braves, while Thornbrue, Alarie, and Grill can follow it up up and down the lineup at the guard and forward positions. I’m a huge believer in Xander Alarie, and in my opinion, he will be the glue piece to the potential of this roster.

Overall, I think there are some questions with this roster, however, Brian Wardle has proved time-and-time again that he can form strong rosters that can compete and win within the Missouri Valley Conference. With the raw talent and ceilings on some of these players, you can most likely expect that this team will be competing in the MVC, but I’m not sold that they’ll be at the top of the conference quite yet. If everything clicks, which it’s still far too early to truly “call our shot” on the expectations of this roster, then you can imagine a top-five finish.

As we mentioned last week, offseason reviews will be firing up starting in June, so I figured what better way to get us in the swing of looking ahead for next season than a little look back at last year?

The transfer portal, NIL, and the current climate of college basketball has changed how programs rebuild. It’s no longer a rarity to see a team jump 100+ spots in KenPom from one season to another now with the ability to rebuild your team every season. The question now is, can the teams that see this growth sustain it? Can they retain their key players?

Let’s take a look at who were the top five teams that improved from 2025 to 2026 and what metrics drove them to see those results.

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Tulsa (267th → 56th)

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane made the largest jump of the season after finishing just 13-20 overall and 267th in KenPom during the 2024-2025 season. They jumped to an incredible 30-8 record this past season, which was good enough for 56th in KenPom and a trip to the NIT Finals where they fell to Auburn in overtime 92-86.

Looking at their metrics, two areas really stand out:

• AdjOE jumped from 101.6 to 120.1 (270th to 43rd)

• AdjDE jumped from 110.2 to 106.4 (224th to 116th)

These metrics made massive jumps while having a generally neutral strength of schedule adjustment between the two seasons. Their offensive schedule adjustment increased from -0.7 to 0.0, meaning they played statistically stronger offenses. Their defensive schedule adjustment did drop a bit from +1.7 to just +0.3, but that’s not enough to really skew the massive jump they made overall.

The four-headed monster in David Green, Tylen Riley, Miles Barnstable, and Ade Popoola was lethal for Tulsa. Green averaged 15.9 points with 4.6 rebounds, while Riley averaged 15 points, Barnstable had 14.6, and Popoola had 10.8 points with 1.3 steals as well. As a team, they were ranked in the top 50 of several key metrics including 29th in effective field goal percentage, 10th in three-point shooting percentage, and 13th in free throw shooting percentage.

It’s been a rollercoaster for Eric Konkol in his first four years on the job, finishing 316th, 184th, 267th, and then 56th in KenPom, but he has all of the momentum rolling. They’ve lost some key pieces, but they’ve built right back in up the portal and are setting themselves up for a successful season coming up. Stay tuned for our offseason review of the 2026-2027 Golden Hurricane later this offseason.

Central Arkansas (349th → 151st)

John Shulman put together one of the best stories across Mid-Major college basketball this season as the Central Arkansas Bears jumped from a 9-24 record which equated to just a 349th KenPom record to 22-12 overall and a 151st finishing position per KenPom.

The Bears ultimately lost to Queens in overtime in the Atlantic Sun Championship, but that shouldn’t overcast just how much they improved in one season. Here are their key offensive and defensive improvements:

• AdjOE jumped from 97.5 to 110.2 (332nd to 152nd)

• AdjDE jumped from 116.2 to 109 (340th to 166th)

Camren Hunter was a beast this season, finishing averaging 21 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 50.6% overall. Ty Robinson was right behind him with 14.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, two assists, and 1.9 steals per game.

Diving into some of the deeper metrics, their offensive schedule adjustment did drop from -1.7 to -3.2, meaning that overall they played statistically weaker offenses throughout the season. Couple that with their standout defensive improvements, and you have the recipe for what contributed to such a sharp increase within just one offseason.

While it’s the life of a growing Mid-Major, the Bears did lose several key players including Hunter, but Ty Robinson stayed committed and will be returning to the Bears for his sophomore season. He’ll be positioned as their go-to player.

Cal St. Fullerton (351th → 170th)

Cal State Fullerton was not talked about enough this past season. In 2025, they finished just 6-26 overall and 351st in KenPom, but they jumped to 18-16 overall and 170th in KenPom during the 2025-2026 season. It’s been a wild ride for head Coach Dedrique Taylor who’s been at the helm since 2014, but there is a lot of reason to believe that they will be able to build off this strong improvement.

Before I dive into the overall metrics, I have to shout out how fun they were to watch. This team was FOURTH overall in tempo and third overall in average possession length at a remarkable 14.7 seconds. If you like offense, this was the team to watch last season. Breaking down their offensive and defensive metrics, here is where they landed:

• AdjOE jumped from 93.8 to 109.3 (356th to 169th)

• AdjDE jumped from 112.6 to 109.3 (294th to 176th)

As I highlighted with their tempo, it was night and day compared to 2025. They were just 129th in tempo last season, marking a massive jump. Interestingly enough as well, their defensive adjusted schedule actually took a large jump from -1.3 to +0.3 between the two seasons, so despite facing off against tougher defenses, the increased tempo translated into success.

They’ve lost some key pieces, but they’ve also brought in six transfers with another four freshman coming in. The Big West is in a lot of limbo right now as well, so the question is, will Taylor focus on quick and effective offense next season?

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Stephen F. Austin (271st → 91st)

The Lumberjacks had a bit of an uncharacteristic year during the 2024-2025 season, finishing just 14-17 overall and 271st in KenPom. They bounced back with a massive jump to 28-6 overall and 91st finishing position in KenPom. The Southland conference as a whole is rolling with both McNeese and Stephen F. Austin on the rise among other programs as well.

While they fell to McNeese in the Southland Conference Tournament, they received an invite to the NIT where they had the unfortunate first round pairing against Tulsa. They fell 89-84 in a thrilling overtime game, so while the season ended in disappointment don’t let that overshadow their improvement. Here’s how their offensive and defensive metrics grew:

• AdjOE jumped from 94.8 to 112.8 (353rd to 90th)

• AdjDE jumped from 101.8 to 100.4 (67th to 28th)

When you expand to look at their scheduling metrics, the picture gets more clearer. Their offensive adjusted scheduling decreased from +0.7 to -0.1, but their defensive adjusted scheduling dramatically jumped from +2.7 to +3.8. the 0.8 drop on the offensive side wasn’t enough to make up the massive jump in offensive metrics overall, but it definitely helped. On the defensive end though, it’s remarkable that it jumped nearly an entire point just they still increased to a top-30 overall defense.

It doesn’t look like they are going to be slowing down any time soon either. They’ve retained some players and added several intriguing players out of the portal, setting them up to see success next season as well.

Pacific (284th → 112th)

Remember when Pacific finished just 6-26 and got blown out by Pepperdine 102-43 in the WCC Conference Tournament? Crazy that it was only two seasons ago, but they are really starting to get things rolling. After that disastrous finish, Dave Smart took over as head coach and the Tigers finished 9=24 and 28th in KenPom during the 2024-2025 season. They made a massive jump in year two underneath Smart, finishing 18-15th overall and 112th in KenPom. Here’s how their offensive and defensive metrics shaped up:

• AdjOE jumped from 99.5 to 107.9 (314th to 186th)

• AdjDE jumped from 113.0 to 105.7 (331st to 101st)

The key thing here is, both their offensive and defensive adjusted schedule increased. Their offensive jumped from +2.0 to +2.8 while their defensive jumped from -1.1 to -0.3, in which both really emphasize the size of growth they had in just one season.

They are going to be restarting with a nearly entire new roster, but Dave Smart should have Tigers’ fans feeling confident about his ability to lead this team into what will be a much more feasible WCC without Gonzaga at the top of the conference.

Offseason Reviews

It’s about that time! Starting in June, we’ll be sending out weekly (sometimes twice a week) offseason reviews all the way up till the start of the season. With that in mind, if you have a specific team that you’d like to see covered, send us a message below. We’ll do our best to cover all teams submitted once their roster has been finalized!

In the meantime, there are plenty of teams that are assembling rosters that are looking like they can make a splash in their conferences next season. We’ve been seeing a ton of positive news around scheduling agreements among mid-major programs, so this season is truly making out to be a special one…even if the tournament is expanded.

Today, we’re going to be looking at who the Kennesaw State Owls have added via the transfer portal. They have a strong set of freshman coming in as well that we’ll save for a full offseason review, but the five players that are coming in via the portal are all showing signs of being able to make positive impacts in their first season with the Owls.

After coming off a no doubt odd season given the gambling probe that impacted the team, the Owls still finished the season 21-14 and even went on a run in the Conference USA Tournament to head to the NCAA Tournament fir the first time since 2023. Antoine Pettway is continuing to build up this program that was restored by the late Amir Abdur-Rahim.

Let’s take a look at who the Owls have added thus far!

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C.J. Beaumont

C.J. Beaumont is a 6’8 junior that is going to be looking to bust out in a big way this coming season. He’s spent the last few seasons with Sam Houston, initially joining the team in 2023 where he appeared in 15 games as a freshman. He ultimately redshirt his sophomore season, but as this past year winded down, he started to show us what he could be made of.

His playing time was sporadic and sparse up until the final few weeks of the season, and he took advantage. On the season, he averaged 3.3 points with 2.4 rebounds, however, over his last six games he averaged 8.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and nearly one steal per game in a shade over 20 minutes per game of action. His best game of his career so far came in the NIT against New Mexico when he finished with 22 points, five rebounds, and one block while shooting 8-14 from the floor overall and 4-6 from beyond the arc.

Looking at his underlying metrics, they show signs of what could be in an expanded role. He finished with a 110.5 offensive rating, 13.8% possession usage, 55% effective field goal percentage, 18.1% defensive rebounding percentage, and a strong 44.4% shooting percentage from three-point against Division I opponents.

While there are still unknowns with what he’ll fully be able to do, if he can take a step forward and grow on what he did over the final weeks of this past season then I believe the Owls might have found themselves a hidden gem.

Anthony Enoh

Enoh is a 6’7 forward from Nigeria that spent his first two seasons in college basketball at Jessup University which was previously NAIA until it transitioned to Division II last season. In his sophomore season for the Warriors, he averaged 11 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game while shooting 46.6% overall and 38.3% from beyond the arc on 60 attempts.

As he started to garner Division I interest, he landed at Georgia State last season. He finished the year appearing in 30 games, starting 17, and averaging five points and five rebounds per game while shooting 33.8% overall. While there was definitely an adjustment in level of competition that he was playing against this year, he showed some strong glimpses of what could be.

Against Jacksonville State, he finished with 7 points and 12 rebounds. Against App State, he finished with 10 points and 9 rebounds. There’s no doubt that he’s a prolific rebounded and a strong force down low, but there’s plenty of room to grow on the offensive end. He finished the season with a 43.6% true shooting percentage and 37.5% effective field goal percentage.

They Owls will value his defensive capabilities as he featured a 17.1% defensive rebounding percentage which was 437th overall in the nation and a 7.9% offensive rebounding percentage which was 462nd. He also had a 3.1% block percentage which was 403rd in the country, which jumped to 4% in the Sun Belt or 14th best among his peers.

Similar to the others on this list, Enoh is a bit of a raw talent still, however, his defensive abilities are going to continue to get him in the lineup with opportunities. If he can grow on the offensive end, he could turn himself into a consistent double-double player.

Kris Parker

Coming out of high school, Parker was listed as a 3-star recruit, the 41st overall Small Forward and the 20th best overall out of Florida. He’s had a bit of a journey already as he initially committed and enrolled at Alabama his freshman season where he ultimately redshirt. He chose the Tide over DePaul, NC State, Villanova, Georgia, St. Johns, and many other strong power conference programs. Following his freshman season, he transferred to Villanova where he appeared in 27 games, averaged 10 minutes per game along with 2.6 points and 1.4 rebounds.

Following his season at Villanova, Parker hit the transfer portal again and landed closer to home with the UCF Knights. His playing time was slashed in half as he appeared in 22 games at 5.8 minutes per game while averaging 1.7 points and 0.7 rebounds per game. His best two games of the season came back-to-back against Texas A&M with 9 points and Oakland with eight points, two rebounds, and one assist which were crucial in the tight 87-83 finish.

With the minimal playing time, it’s difficult to look deep at his metrics, but he did finish with a 59.2% true shooting percentage, 9% defensive rebounding percentage, and a strong 64.7% shooting percentage from inside the arc. This is consistent with his season at Villanova where he featured a 12.6% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 63.3% shooting percentage from inside.

Parker is a raw talent still, but at 6’9 he has a strong body that’s going to be able to provide Kennesaw State with a force down low. This is the type of player that’s looking for an opportunity to see the court and he has a golden chance to take advantage and break out this season.

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Avery Thomas II

There’s something about inter-conference transfers that just really fuel the fire for rivalries. Avery Thomas II spent his first season in Division I with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last season where he put up solid numbers for a team that won 20 games. He averaged 9.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 40.3% overall and 30% from beyond the arc as a 6’8 sophomore.

He’s a monster on the glass. He had two 15-rebound games, eight 10+ rebound games, and five double-doubles. When he gets hot from beyond the arc, he can become a problem as well. Over the final month of the season, he shot 48% from three-point on 33 attempts in ten games.

In the year prior to Louisiana Tech, he spent the season with a JUCO at Jones College where he dominated. He averaged 14.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He shot 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc, all of which clearly translated to the next level as he got more comfortable.

Looking at his metrics, he finished the season with a 108.6 offensive rating, 47.9% true shooting percentage, 11.6% offensive rebounding percentage which was 150th overall, a 19.4% defensive rebounding percentage which was 233rd best in the country, a 2.7% block percentage, and a 2.7% steal percentage in which both were ranked nationally as well.

This is a player who is still young and is going to continue to develop into a strong Division I basketball player. He’ll immediately slot into the Owl’s starting lineup this season and I’m excited to see how he grows.

Jacoby Hill

We have another inter-conference transfer! Jacoby Hill spent his freshman season with Jacksonville State who he chose over UAB, North Alabama, Alabama, and Mississippi State. It’s no coincidence either that he was receiving interest from the SEC. The Alabama native finished his freshman season with the Gamecocks averaging ten points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 51.4% overall and 35.5% from beyond the arc.

As the season went on, he kept getting better and better. Over his last five games, he finished averaging 15.8 points, six rebounds, 2.6 assists, all while shooting 66.7% from the floor. His metrics speak highly of his skills as well. He finished with a 113.9 offensive rating which grew to 116.2 in conference play and his shooting metrics were strong with a 54.2% effective field goal percentage and 58% true shooting percentage which both stepped up to 56.5% and 60% each respectively in the Conference USA.

At 6’4, he’s not our traditional shooting guard or combo guard, rather he is a highly impactful strong IQ guard that can slash to the paint and finish strong inside. His 59.1% shooting percentage from inside the arc during conference play was 11th best in the conference. While he isn’t a three point volume threat, he still shot 32.5% on 40 attempts inside the CUSA which is respectable.

Hill is going to blossom into a strong player and he already has one solid season under his belt in the same conference that he’ll be playing in with Kennesaw State. Similar to Thomas II, I believe that Hill will slot immediately into the starting lineup and provide a huge spark for the Owls at the two-spot.

P.S. If you haven’t, check out some of his dunks online…he has some incredible athleticism.

Offseason Reviews

It’s about that time! Starting in June, we’ll be sending out weekly (sometimes twice a week) offseason reviews all the way up till the start of the season. With that in mind, if you have a specific team that you’d like to see covered, send us a message below. We’ll do our best to cover all teams submitted once their roster has been finalized!

While picking up strong talent from the lower ranks, they’ve also tapped into the power conference ranks to find strong players that are looking for an expanded opportunity to prove their capabilities.

Let’s dive in and see who George Washington has added to their roster this season and why they could be a force in the Atlantic-10 next season.

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Terrance Arceneaux (NC State)

The 6’6 incoming senior has spent four seasons at the power conference level, three with the Houston Cougars and last year with the NC State Wolfpack. At Houston, he appeared in 40 games the year prior while starting six and averaging 6.5 points and 2.7 rebounds per game. For NC State, he averaged 3.8 points and 2.6 rebounds while shooting 41% overall and 32.6% from beyond the arc.

Looking at his metrics, he finished with a 110 offensive rating, 14.4% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 51.6% true shooting percentage. During that strong season for Houston in 2025, he finished with a 2.9% steal percentage which was 305th in the country, a 114.3 offensive rating, and a 53.1% true shooting percentage.

He’ll be looking to make a huge splash in an expanded role to close out his collegiate career, and he has the potential to be special for the Revolutionaries.

Andrew Phillips

Phillips has spent the last three years with Lafayette and he’s developed into a strong versatile player. The 6’4 incoming junior averaged 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game last season while shooting 39.8% overall and 31.1% from beyond the arc. The year prior, he shot 46.6% on 7.5 attempts and 43.1% on 3.3 attempts from three-point, so his percentages dipped a bit as he nearly doubled his attempts per game in both categories last season.

Coming out of high school, he had just one other off from a non-division I program in Jefferson. Now, he’s made the jump to the Atlantic-10 in just a couple of seasons. Last year, he finished with a 103.4 offensive rating, 50% true shooting percentage, 10.9% defensive rebounding percentage, and just an 8.6 turnover percentage which was 77th best in the country. He also rarely fouls as he averaged just 1.8 fouls per game which was 102nd best in the nation.

Dylan James

Dylan James is another incoming transfer for George Washington that has plenty of experience at the highest level. He’s spent the last three years with the Georgia Bulldogs where he’s appeared in 87 games and started in 18. Last year, he averaged 4.5 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 46.4% overall. At 6’9, he’s not a three point threat, but in his first two seasons he shot 22-56 at a 39% clip before completing just one of his 17 attempts last year.

He finished the season with a 105.5 offensive rating, 50.9% true shooting percentage, 10.9% offensive rebounding percentage, 16% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 4% block percentage. A lot of his damage came in the non-conference, but he had a couple strong games against strong SEC opponents.

gainst Florida, he finished with 16 points and six rebounds on 6-10 shooting in 20 minutes. Against Texas A&M, he finished with 13 points, 13 rebounds, and two blocks in 25 minutes. He’s a strong player that is going to thrive with an increase opportunity at a slightly lower level of competition.

Felix Kossaras

Felix Kossaras has spent his first two seasons in college basketball with the Colorado Buffaloes where he is starting to show signs of a budding star. Last year, he stepped up while starting in 17 of the 28 games he appeared in. He averaged 4.6 points and 1.5 rebounds while shooting 50% overall and 38% from beyond the arc.

Kossaras finished the year with a 119 offensive rating, 63.2% true shooting percentage, and a 31.8 free throw rate while converting 21 of his 28 attempts from the line. While he haven’t seen what he can look like in an expanded role, his metrics and growth in year two represent what could be a massive step forward this coming season at George Washington.

In the non-conference, he finished with 17 points against UC Davis, 11 against Washington, and consistent 6-8 points per game. His playing time diminished in conference play, so he’ll be looking to take full advantage of his new opportunities.

Malachi Arrington

Arrington is an intriguing pickup, in which at 6’11 he’ll provide some important depth with height. He played at NJIT the least two seasons where he appeared in 51 games and started 18 while averaging 11.9 minutes per game. Last year, he averaged 3.9 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 59.7% overall. He had a couple of huge games including an 11 points and 11 rebound double-double against Eastern Michigan in the non-conference slate of their schedule.

He finished with a 106.8 offensive rating, 60.3% effective field goal percentage, 9% offensive rebounding percentage, 19.6% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 4.7 block percentage. He is going to be the type of player that when you need some help on defense, you can send him out their to clean up the boards and be a force down low.

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Andrija Vukovic

The 6’11 forward/center from Serbia took a step forward last year in his second season at Oklahoma State. He appeared in 27 games, starting in three, while averaging 15.3 minutes per game. Vukovic averaged 5.3 points and 3.4 rebounds per game while shooting 62.2% overall and knocking down one of his three attempts from outside.

His metrics show some exceptionally strong upside is his averages correlate to an expanded role with more minutes. He finished the year with a 124.7 offensive rating, 64.6% true shooting percentage, 11.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 12.8% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 63.2% shooting percentage from inside the arc.

He played very well to close out the season. Over his last five games, he averaged eight points and 5.8 rebounds, while shooting 57% overall. This is one of my favorite additions for the Revolutionaries because he is poised to go off this season.

Omari Witherspoon

George Washington fans should be thrilled to have picked up Witherspoon and he’ll quickly become an enemy for fans of other Atlantic-10 teams. The 6’4 freshman had a fantastic debut to his career, averaging 7.5 points, three rebounds, and 2.5 assist per game while shooting 38% overall. He shot just 28.7% from beyond the arc, but he showed signs that this is an area he’ll be able to grow in.

Looking at his metrics, his offensive rating was 87.6 which will grow with a different team surrounding him, a 16.9 assist rate, 11% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 2.7% block percentage. He’s a strong defender in the making and couple that with his athleticism and he’ll be a problem for opposing guards.

Witherspoon has a ton of upside that he’ll be looking to unlock in the coming season.

Ryder Frost

The 6’7 forward appeared in 26 games as a freshman last season and averaged 6.2 minutes per game. He finished the year averaging 2.7 points and 0.8 rebounds while shooting 40.4% overall and 38.5% from three-point on 52 attempts. In case you are wondering, yes, 91.2% of his shots last season were from beyond the arc. He’s a three-point specialist.

Coming out of high school, he was a three-star recruit with offers from a lot of power conference programs including Michigan, Villanova, BYU, Miami, Wisconsin, and many more. While the majority of his statistics game in the non-conference, he had a couple of strong games against North Carolina & Pittsburgh where he drained 7-9 three pointers combined in those games.

While he didn’t have a ton of playing time, he finished the season with a 120.2 offensive rating, 58.4% true shooting percentage, 10.9 defensive rebounding percentage, 8.9 assist rate, and of course his strong three-point shooting percentage. I’m excited to see him get more opportunities to showcase his raw shooting potential.

Just last season, we saw players like Collin Parker transfer to Austin Peay and dominate with 17.6 points per game along with 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Ben Humrichous went from Huntington University in Indiana to the Final Four with Illinois, while there are other stories like Riley Minix who has been playing in the G-League and even signed a two-way contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While the portal was made the world of college basketball more chaotic, it’s also opened up the opportunity for players who normally would be overlooked at the Division I level the chance to prove themselves and set up even potential long-term careers.

This season is looking to be no different with this trend, so let’s take a look at five players that are transferring in from the NAIA level to Division I that has a great chance of making a huge splash in year one.

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Jesse Van Kalsbeek (South Dakota State)

How Jesse Van Kalsbeek wasn’t already playing at the Division I level is mind-blowing, but as just a sophomore (incoming junior) we’ll get to see at least two more seasons if not three with the NCAA potentially moving to a five-year eligibility rule.

Van Kalsbeek was named the NAIA Player of the Year after what was about as dominating of a campaign that a single player could put together at Northwestern. He led the Raiders with 27.8 points, 4.7 assists, 12.4 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 61.2% overall and 41.2% from deep on just 34 attempts.

He had three 40+ point games, which ironically all came within the first six games of the season. In one of those games, he finished with 47 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists with just two turnovers against William Penn. He poses a unique skill set that allows him to not just be a monster scorer, but a prolific rebounder as well. At 6’7, he is not afraid of slashing to the paint and he does so with ease. He’s lightning quick on his feet, allowing him to function almost at the same speed as a guard.

He does have some work to do on cutting down on his turnovers. He averaged nearly three per game, and it became a bit more of an issue as the season went on. However, it’s very important to remember that on a team like South Dakota State, he’s not going to have to function as a “do-it-all” kind of player. He’ll be able to slot in to his natural positioning as a slashing forward with the ability to play outside of his position and lock down the paint.

Zach Lee (Cal State Bakersfield)

Zach Lee is a 6’4 guard that has spent his entire career so far at Loyola New Orleans. He redshirt his freshman season after appearing in five games, but he started to take off in his official freshman season. He earned a spot on his conference’s All-Freshman team while averaging nine points with 6.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He battled injuries in his sophomore season, but he bounced back last year with his strongest year to date. He averaged 14.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 51.5% overall and 38.3% from beyond the arc on 60 attempts.

Cal State Bakersfield is in full rebuild mode at the moment, and this is going to give someone like Zach Lee an opportunity to shine. The Roadrunners named Todd Lee their head coach after spending the last couple of seasons at USC as an assistant. He has plenty of coaching experience, with a record of 154-81 at Kentucky Wesleyan & 66-52 at South Dakota.

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Devin Davenport (Eastern Illinois)

Devin Davenport spent last season at Missouri Valley College where he emerged as a dominant offensive weapon. The 6’2 guard averaged 20.3 points, four rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 44.1% overall and 36% from three-point. He’s not going to be a floor general, but he can be one of your go-to players for scoring on the floor.

The Panthers have a couple of point guards coming in, Jaden Miller & Jalen Calloway” while Markus Blackwell is returning following a solid debut last year. Davenport will immediately slide in as one of their top offensive weapons as Marty Simmons looks to continue building Eastern Illinois up following an extension after the season.

For Davenport, he’ll be a two-way scorer as he can knock it down from deep, but he’s also a strong finisher from inside. He took 31.4% of his attempts last season from outside, and he shot 47.8% from inside the arc on his remaining attempts. He becomes lethal at the free throw line as well, shooing 89.7% on 175 attempts last year.

Look for Davenport to make a huge impact in his first season at the Division I level.

Jackson Cooper (Indiana State)

Indiana State has already saw some success in bringing over players from the NAIA level. Last season, Ian Scott transferred in from the NAIA and averaged 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.6 assists for the Sycamores last year while shooting 63.2% overall.

Jackson Cooper had a tremendous season last year for Oregon Tech. The 6’7 forward averaged 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game while shooting 56.6% from the floor. He’s not a three point threat as he’s attempted just two shots from beyond the arc over his last three seasons. His performance last year was good enough to name him as a second-team All-American in the NAIA as well as his conference’s Player of the Year.

Cooper had some ridiculous stat lines last year, including a 28 points, 15 rebound, and 10 assist tripe-double against a strong College of Idaho team. He in general fits the mold of head coach Matthew Graves’ coaching style very well. The Sycamores struggled mightily offensively in nearly every category, but they dominated from inside the arc where they were 25th in the country and took 50.6% of their shots. Cooper, someone who is prolific from inside the arc, is going to fit in perfectly for the Sycamores in year one.

Izaiah Day (Morehead State)

Coming from Taylor University, Izaiah Day put together a massive stat line this past season. In 30 games, the 6’3 guard averaged 16.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 48.7% overall and 42.2% from beyond the arc.

Last year, Morehead State put together a strong season in year two underneath Jonathan Mattox at the helm. The Eagles finished 20-13 overall and 15-5 in the Ohio Valley Conference. Overall, they lacked consistent offense as they ranked just 285th in effective field goal percentage, 281st in three-point shooting percentage, and 267th in two-point shooting percentage.

Day is going to immediately slot in as one of the key offensive players for the Eagles next season and they are going to be able to rely on his efficient shooting capabilities. His 42.2% three-point shooting was based on a shade over seven attempts per game and his overall 48.7% shooting percentage was based off 11.7 attempts per game. While he lines up as a three-point specialist, he can get it done inside as well and he can finish well at the free throw line were he shot 74%.

While Will Wade left, Bill Armstrong is doing just as good of a job as they finished 28-6 overall and 19-3 last season while the Southland as a whole continues to up their standards. In 2023, the Southland was ranked 30th overall per KenPom ahead of just the SWAC, NEC, and the two independent teams that year (Chicago State and Hartford). In 2026, the conference finished 18th overall and with the growth from Stephen F. Austin and others like Lamar who I think will be solid next year, the conference is going to continue to improve.

As a result, Coach Armstrong had to make some splashes in the transfer portal and he has done just that. While retaining Larry Johnson who came off a stellar freshman campaign, Armstrong has added six transfers from power conference programs that are looking for an opportunity to break out. Let’s dive into these additions!

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Dellquan Warren

Coming out of Keystone Athletic Academy in Erie, Pennsylvania, the 6’2 guard was listed as a three-star recruit. He chose Mississippi State other many other power conference schools like Penn State, Florida State, St. John’s, Alabama, and many more.

Over his last two seasons with the Bulldogs, he didn’t see the floor a ton. He appeared in 45 games, averaging 6.7 minutes per game and a shade under one point per game. His best game of his career so far came against LSU his freshman season when he played 15 minutes, scored five points with four assists, one rebound, one steal, and just one turnover.

He’s a raw point guard that is going to have an opportunity to find his footing alongside standout Larry Johnson who will enter his sophomore season.

Elijah Moore

Moore spend last season at Utah where he appeared in just one game, but he had a strong freshman showing at Syracuse the year prior. The former four-star recruit averaged 5.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, and one assist per game while shooting 39.1% overall and 31.5% from beyond the arc.

Looking at his metrics, he feature a 9.1% defensive rebounding percentage, 11.5 assist rate, and a 98.2 offensive rating. He shot well from inside the arc at 48.3% on 60 attempts. He did nearly wash-out his assist rate with 0.8 turnovers per game, but that can definitely be adjusted when given a higher role with opportunity.

McNeese is become a home for power conference players looking for their big break and I have no doubt that Moore will become another example of this for the Cowboys next season.

Christian Nitu

Nitu spent last season with the Washington Huskies, but he didn’t appear on the court. The original three-star recruit played his freshman season at Florida State where he averaged 1.9 points and 1.3 rebounds while shooting 40.9% from the floor.

The 6’11 big man had is best game of the season in their final game against Virginia that season when he played 18 minutes, finishing 4-4 with 8 points, three rebounds, and one steal. His metrics are raw because of minimal playing time, but regardless he finished with an 8.5 offensive rebounding percentage and a 12.6% defensive rebounding percentage with a 3.9% block percentage.

One area that the Cowboys lacked a bit last season was height in the paint and Nitu is one of three incoming big men to address that gap.

Alier Maluk

We have another big man coming into McNeese with Florida State ties. Maluk has spent his first two seasons with the Seminoles where he appeared in 53 games, starting five, while averaging 2.2 points and 1.9 rebounds per game. His playing time decreased a bit last season as he went from eleven minutes per game to just 6.2, but similar to others here, he has raw potential.

Coming out of Long Island Lutheran, he was listed as a three-star recruit and committed to Florida State over Maryland, Vanderbilt, Oregon, and many other power conference programs.

Despite the decrease in playing time, his metrics rose in his sophomore season and several positive areas. He finished with a 13% offensive rebounding percentage and a 15.8% defensive rebounding percentage. On defense, he featured a 6.8% blocking percentage and a 2% steal percentage.

Like the rest of the players on this list, Maluk has experience at the highest level and is looking for a change to earn playing time for a highly respected McNeese squad this coming season.

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Corey Chest

Chest is a 6’8 forward that was listed as a top-100 recruit and four-star recruit entering his freshman season out of the Link Academy. He started off at LSU where he averaged 6.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game while starting in 19 of the 26 games he appeared in. He was efficient on the court as well offensively, shooting 60.7% overall.

He transferred to Ole Miss last season and saw he minutes drop from 20 per game to just 13 per game. He appeared in 34 games, starting in four, while averaging 2.6 points and 3.8 rebounds.

Looking at his metrics, his freshman season was outstanding. He was 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 14%, 133rd in defensive rebounding percentage at 21.8%, and 110th in blocking percentage at 6.2%. His 60.7% shooting percentage from inside the arc was 207th in the nation as well that season. At Ole Miss, even with the minute drops, his metrics still shined in the same categories.

Chest is looking for his true breakout moment and showing signs of that his freshman year at LSU. I firmly believe that he’ll be one of the most important cogs for the Cowboys’ success next season and you need to have him on your radar for a potential star.

Jaylon Dean-Vines

Dean-Vines spent his freshman year with Vanderbilt this past season where he saw sparse playing time. Coming out of high school, he was a three-star recruit from Dallas who chose Vandy over Oklahoma, Washington, Tulsa, and UT Arlington.

He appeared in ten games this season, averaging 0.9 points, 0.4 rebounds, and 0.2 assists while shooting 4-5 overall and 1-2 from three-point. I actually caught his best game against Lipscomb in the four minutes he was on the court. He shot 2-2 to finish with four points, two rebounds, and one steal. He has some true potential, but he’s going to need development and opportunities, which McNeese is going to be able to give him.

At 6’4, he should have the chance to earn solid minutes as a potential combo guard for the Cowboys next year.

Just last month, the Panthers made a huge splash as they not just made their second NCAA Tournament appearance in a row and in school history, they took down Wisconsin 83-82 in the Round of 64 to pick up their first NCAA Tournament win. They ultimately fell to Arkansas in the Round of 32, but they didn’t go down without a fight as they lost 84-88.

Now with the current transfer portal the question was going to be, how will their fare? Usually, if a team that’s outside the traditional power conference ranks and they have this amount of success, they are left with nearly zero players. However, among their big three players from last year, Rob Martin has been the only one to hit the portal. Martin averaged 16 points, two rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 steals. They lost Terry Anderson due to eligibility. However, they have retained Cam’Ron Fletcher who averaged 13.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 54.4% overall and 36.2% from beyond the arc.

With Martin and others returning, the Panthers have made a huge splash in the transfer portal. Let’s see who they’ve secured so far for the 2026-2027 season.

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Portal Additions

CJ Brown (South Florida)

The 6’2 guard, CJ Brown, spent his last two seasons with the South Florida Bulls where he has emerged as a true leader on the court. Last season, he averaged 10.9 points with 3.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and one steal per game on average. He shot just 38.1% overall, down from 45.5% his freshman season. He’s not a legitimate three-point shooting threat either as he’s just a 24.7% career shooting on 1.5 attempts per game. However, he does a tremendous job at getting to the free throw line. He drew on average 5.1 fouls per game and featured a 54.9 free throw rate which was 128th in the nation.

He shines as a playmaker. He finished the season with a 29.7 assist rate which was the 95th best in the country. He turned the ball over just two times per game on average, and he had some strong stat lines. Against Oklahoma State, he finished with 24 points and ten assists, and he had seven assists or more in eight games.

Brown is a true floor general, and I anticipate that he will thrive in the Big South.

Jason Rivera-Torres (Monmouth)

Jason Rivera-Torres as had a wild ride in college basketball. He started his career off at Vanderbilt where he averaged 6.4 points and 3.1 rebounds as a freshman. He then transferred to San Francisco where he averaged just 7.9 minutes per game. Last season, he transferred to Monmouth where he was able to take off.

The 6’7 junior averaged 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 40.2% overall and 31.5% from beyond the arc. He featured a 24.6% possession usage, 8.3% offensive rebounding percentage, 17.9% defensive rebounding percentage, 3.5% block percentage, and a 3.3% steal per game. He’s also strong at getting to the free throw line as he draws 4.5 fouls per game, giving him 162 opportunities at the line where he shot 80.2%.

Having Fletcher and Rivera-Torres together, with CJ Brown leading the way…this team is going to be tough.

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Isaac Garrett (Oakland)

Isaac Garrett transferred into Oakland after playing at Snow College (JUCO) and he took no time adjusting to playing in division one. The 6’8 junior averaged 13.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, one block, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 53.7% overall from the floor.

Looking at his metrics, he was electric. He featured a 54.3% effective field goal percentage, 59.1% true shooting percentage which was 299th overall, a 9.4% offensive rebounding percentage, an 18.1% defensive rebounding percentage, a 3.6% block percentage, and an 80.2% free throw shooting percentage on 106 attempts per game.

Wondering what he can do against top schools? Against No. 1 Houston, he had 20 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks. Against No. 1 Michigan, he had 20 points as well. In the Horizon League, he went on to dominate on the glass. His metrics jumped to a 118.3 offensive rating, and he finished in the top 10 of several categories.

The Panthers are going to be a force at the 4 & 5 next season.

Frankquon Sherman (Kennesaw State)

Frankquon Sherman is another 6’7 forward, bringing up the total so far to two 6’7 forwards and another at 6’8. The junior has spent his last three seasons with the Kennesaw State Owls where he has turned himself into a reliable player. Last season, he averaged 10.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and one assist, while shooting 46.8% overall. In particular, he is a monster on the offensive glass as he averaged 3.3 per game.

He finished the season with a 120.2 offensive rating, which was 346th overall, a 13.7% offensive rebounding percentage which was 61st, a 22.2% defensive rebounding percentage at 80th, and a 3.2% block percentage. Similar to High Point’s other additions, he does a solid job at getting to the free throw line as he finished with a 57.2 free throw rate, converting 74.1% of his attempts.

It is very clear that Flynn Clayman’s plan in the portal was to add players that are strong on the glass as all three of Sherman, Garrett, and Rivera-Torres are forces. CJ Brown will help replace Rob Martin at the point guard position, and keep in mind…it’s just April 20th, so there is time for more work to be done. The Panthers made a splash last season and yes, they are operating with funds that most traditional teams in Mid-Major conferences have to play with. There’s no doubt that they’ll be rolling again next season.

Rumors around what players are asking in the portal in terms of payment is shocking a lot of people, including myself. Allegedly, there are players who averaged 6-7 points per game as a freshman on a power conference roster that are asking for upwards of $5m. You can imagine when I first read that, my jaw was on the floor. However, without truly being connected into the sources myself, maybe don’t read too much into that. Regardless, players expectations are skyrocketing.

This makes it tougher to compete as a mid-major in college basketball as you are not just fighting to gather resources to be able to fund your program, you are now dealing with agents and other third-parties that are overstating the value of players monetarily so they can get a larger slice of the pie. That doesn’t even factor in if you are a mid-major with football because you are then fighting for just a slice of the resources your university and alumni are willing to give.

Despite all of these factors going against mid-major programs, we’ve had some incredible stories developing over the last couple of weeks. Some players, key players to be exact, are sticking to their oaths and staying with their coaches to build something at their programs. We aren’t just talking about programs like Utah State who have significantly more resources than the average team. Programs like UIC, Vermont, Valparaiso, Evansville, Austin Peay, Illinois State, and many more have been able to retain at least one of their key players for next season despite the fact there is no doubt they would have made more money else where.

Let’s dive into who’s sticking with their team for next season.

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McNeese

There might not be another mid-major program that’s rolling quite like McNeese. With three NCAA Tournament appearances in a row, despite a new head coach, the Cowboys are also rolling in the NIL resources. The word on the street is, they doubled what they already had, which if true…is incredible.

The star of the show last season was Larry Johnson. The 6’4 freshman guard is a prolific slasher and offensive weapon. He averaged 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 49.2% overall. He’s not a three-point threat at just 23.8%, but he showed some glimpses of what could be an area for him to grow into.

Johnson finished the season with a 30.5% possession usage which was 43rd overall and a 33.3% shot percentage which was 16th in the nation. He also featured an 18% defensive rebounding percentage, a 8.6% turnover rate which was 82nd best, and he drew 5.9 fouls per game which was 97th overall.

Initially, Johnson entered the transfer portal where he surely would’ve made millions from a power conference program. However, it was announced that he ultimately withdrew and will be returning to the Cowboys next season. Coupled with additional transfers coming in, McNeese is going to be looking like a dangerous team once again next season.

Austin Peay

Austin Peay put together a strong season, finishing 22-9 and 15-3 in the Atlantic Sun before falling to Queens in the conference tournament. The Governors are now returning two of their key players in Zyree Collins & Rashaud Marshall as they aim to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament next season.

Collins put up incredible metrics in his freshmen season. He finished with a 26.4 assist rate which was 164th best in the country and a 4.1 steal percentage which was 30th overall. He averaged 13.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.1 steals per game while shooting 43.1% overall from the floor and 31.3% from beyond the arc. He put up some incredible games like 16 points with 14 assists against Bellarmine and racking up seven steals against North Florida.

Rashaud Marshall finished the season in the top percentile of offensive players with a 130.2 offensive rating which was 55th overall. He was 24th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in true shooting percentage, and 87th in two-point shooting percentage. He averaged 16.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 65.5% overall from the floor.

With two of their most talented players coming back, the Governors are already positioning themselves for success in the 2026-2027 season after putting together a strong campaign this year.

Vermont

The Vermont Catamounts started the season just 5-5 with some close losses to Buffalo, Liberty, and Yale, but they rebounded to finish the season 22-12 overall and 12-4 in the America East. They ultimately fell to UMBC in the conference tournament, so there is no doubt that John Becker is going to be looking to build up the Catamounts to make a run next season.

A large piece of their success this season was led by Gus Yalden. Yalden is a 6’9 incoming junior that averaged 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 50.7% overall from the floor and 34.7% from beyond the arc on 3.8 attempts per game. He started his career at Seton Hall where he appeared in 26 games and averaged 8.4 minutes.

Yalden finished the season 11th in possession usage while taking 34.5% of the team’s shots which was the 8th best in the nation. His 56.1% effective field goal percentage was 297th overall and he featured a 10.1% offensive rebounding percentage, a 17.7% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 21 assist rate. Needless to say, Yalden was phenomenal for Vermont.

Entering the offseason, mid-major fans have come to expect that players like this will ultimately leave to go to a high-major or a power conference program where they’ll be paid handsomely. However, Yalden shocked the college basketball world while posting a thoughtful video. In it, he mentioned that “the grass isn’t always greener” while stating…”he’s back”. Could he have made significant money elsewhere? Absolutely. However, he’s sticking with Coach Becker and the Catamounts as they’ll look to return to glory in the 2026-2027 season.

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Missouri Valley

The Missouri Valley as a whole is doing a great job of retaining talent. I’ll state the fact that if you are a Bradley fan reading this…I’m sorry.

Illinois State announced that both Johnny Kinziger and Chase Walker would both be returning to the Redbirds next season. Walker averaged 13.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 54.5% overall and 29% from three-point. Kinziger averaged 11.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 40% overall and 33% from three-point.

The Redbirds went on a run to the NIT Semifinals and while they ultimately lost Ty’Reek Coleman to the portal, retaining their top two players in both Walker and Kinziger is going to position them well to be one of the top favorites in the Missouri Valley entering next season.

The UIC Flames fired off a series of posts announcing that players would be returning including the following: Mekhi Lowery, Rashund Washington Jr., Jayce Nathaniel, Andy Johnson, and Ahmad Henderson II. While they lost their leading scorer Elijah Crawford, they returning their next four top offensive pieces. Just as a friendly reminder, the Flames went on a run in Arch Madness to reach the Championship where they fell to Northern Iowa.

Lowery averaged 8.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.4 steals. Washington Jr. averaged 8.7 points and five rebounds. Johnson averaged 11.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Henderson II averaged 12 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Nathaniel averaged 6.2 points and 4.5 rebounds.

Similar to UIC, Valparaiso also released several “I’m Back” graphics to announce the return of some key players. The full list includes: Justus McNair, JT Pettigrew, Rakim Chaney, Sader Servilus, and Carter Hopoi. The Beacons showed a lot of improvement this season and Roger Powell has now been able to retain some of their key players to build up for next sesaon where they are most likely going to be a threat in the Missouri Valley.

McNair averaged 7.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, and one assist. Chaney averaged 10.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.4 steals. Pettigrew averaged 12.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. Servilus averaged 2.6 points and 2.6 rebounds. Hopoi averaged 3.8 points and 1.8 assists.

Evansville had a rough season, but one of their bright spots came from AJ Casey. Casey previously played on the Miami Hurricanes squad that went to the Final Four and he’s battled injuries throughout his career. He had his first full opportunity last year and he took advantage. He averaged 13.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, two assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 51.1% overall and 33.9% from beyond the arc. He continuously improved throughout the season and was a large reason why the Aces were able to compete in conference more strongly over the last month or so of the season. Many assumed that he’d hit the portal, but instead he announced that he’ll be returning.

Freshman Bryce Quinet was another bright spot for the Aces as he averaged 8.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 40.9% overall and 30.3% from three-point. He showed a lot of promise as a freshman, including some strong performances in conference play against Bradley, SIU, and Valpo. Similarly, I figured he’d hit the portal, but he elected to return with Casey.

The Aces also retained redshirt freshman Aaron Gutman and freshman James Dyson-Merwe. They still have a long way to go to build a roster that can compete in the Missouri Valley, but being able to retain two strong players in both Casey and Quinet should at least spark some hope for Evansville fans.

Some moves have been wild to say the least. Will Wade landed back at LSU, Randy Bennett left Saint Mary’s for Arizona State, Ben Jacobsen left Northern Iowa after 20 years for Utah State, Chris Mack is now at South Florida, John Groce moved to Charleston, and all of that is just scratching the surface.

Let’s recap which Mid-Majors have made the best moves and take a look at some interesting trends.

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Top Moves

Kahil Fennell ~ Western Michigan

The Western Michigan Broncos last reached the NCAA Tournament in 2014 when they finished 23-10, but they haven’t finished above .500 since the 2018-2019 season. After four straight seasons of less than ten wins, the Broncos moved on from Dwayne Stephens, while naming Kahil Fennell as their next head coach.

Fennell has spent the last two seasons at UT Rio Grande Valley where he finished 16-15 in the first season and 19-14 this year, while going 14-8 in the Southland. For reference, they have finished with 20 wins just twice since 2000 and above .500 just three times prior to Fennell taking over. Their 116th KenPom rating this season was the highest since joining the Division I ranks. This is not an easy job.

This season, they were even across the board as they sat at 136th in Offensive Adjusted Efficiency and 117th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They were 76th in two-point shooting percentage and 35th in three-point shooting percentage. On the defensive end, they finished 38th overall in defensive effective field goal percentage, 68th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point shooting percentage.

With Fennell’s ability to build a strong program at UT Rio Grande Valley, there is no doubt that he’s going to have a great opportunity to do the same thing in the MAC with plenty of other coaching changes in the conference.

Matt Majkrzak ~ Northern Illinois

The Northern Illinois Huskies have finished with an above .500 record just four times since it last reached the NCAA Tournament in 1996. Since, they’ve been through six head coaches before now adding their seventh in Matt Majkrzak. However, they’ve now added a proven winner to lead them into their new era as a part of the Horizon League starting next season.

Majkrzak has been the head coach of Division II Northern Michigan since 2019. During that span, he went 13-17, 8-8 (COVID Shortened season), and 18-12 before really kicking it into high gear. Over the last four seasons, he’s led the Wildcats to an NCAA Tournament birth each year as well as winning games in the tournament in two of those four seasons. He’s amassed a 136-78 record during his time at Northern Michigan.

We’ve seen several coaches come from the non-division one ranks and make an immediate impact, most notably Ben McCollum and Josh Schertz over the last couple of years. I personally love this hire for Northern Illinois because the Huskies have made it clear that football is more of a priority than basketball is. If they want to try to stay competitive and win at this level, they needed to hire someone that can simply win and Majkrzak is a great fit.

Jordan Fee ~ Lamar

While Jordan Fee might not have a lengthy run as a head coach in other collegiate levels like Majkrzak, his resume speaks for itself. He’s been a part of the staff at West Liberty, Detroit Mercy, and Nova Southeastern which is one of the top Division II programs in the country between 2015-2023. Following 2023, he took over as head coach of Gannon where he went 32-3 and advanced to the Elite Eight in just one season. He joined FAU’s staff for the last two years, including as the associate head coach last season before taking over as Lamar’s head coach for the 2026-2027 season.

With McNeese and Stephen F. Austin both still on the rise, the Southland as a whole is a growing conference. Lamar, unlike other schools on this list, isn’t unfamiliar with success. They haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2012, however, they’ve had two 20 win seasons and have finished below .500 seven times during that stretch. It’s been wildly up-and-down as they have three seasons with four or less wins and one with just nine wins. A bit of a rollercoaster for the Cardinals.

I am happily overlooking the lack of experience of being a head coach because Fee is clearly a proven winner. What he did in one season at Gannon and what he has clearly learned at some of the other programs will absolutely translate at the Division I position. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do in year one.

Tobin Anderson ~ Tennessee Tech

Tobin Anderson is back in the head coaching seat! After a wild journey, Tennessee Tech will be his new home starting next season. Anderson led St. Thomas Aquinas to a 209-62 record over nine seasons at the helm, including four Sweet 16 appearances and a run to the elite eight in 2017.

After his successful experience at the Division II ranks, Fairleigh Dickinson picked him up ahead of the 2022-2023 season as he led the Knights to a 21-16 record in his first year on the job. After falling to Merrimack in the NEC Championship, FDU picked up the bid to the NCAA Tournament due to Merrimack’s ineligibility. Ultimately, the rest is history as they became just the second 16-seed in NCAA history to upset a #1 seed as they defeated Purdue in the first round.

Following the season, he landed at Iona, where he finished 16-17 & 16-16. After the second season, he was let go with plenty of controversy around the college basketball world, calling out Iona for this move. However, he didn’t have to wait long for another opportunity. He joined South Florida last season on the bench, and now he’ll have a tall task in trying to right the ship of Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles haven’t finished with more than 19 wins since the 2001-2002 season when they ended at 27-7, but missed the NCAA Tournament.

It won’t be an easy task, but I love seeing Anderson getting the opportunity to build another small program upward.

Eric Haut ~ Tarleton State

Eric Haut is a bit of an underrated hire in my opinion. He’s worked at Western Kentucky, Kent State, TCU, Northern Kentucky, and most recently he’s been the associate head coach under Jerrod Calhoun at Utah State for the last two years.

Billy Gillispie seemed to have things going the right way for Tarleton State after finishing 25-10 in their fourth year since transitioning to Division I in 2020, but things fell off. They went just 12-20 and 14-18 over the last two seasons as members of the WAC. With the new partnership with the Atlantic Sun to form the United Athletic Conference, Eric Haut will now have the opportunity to take what he’s learned at Utah State as one of the top programs outside the power conference ranks and build something special at Tarleton State.

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The State of Coaching

While there have been plenty of jumps to better jobs as higher levels, and there is no doubt that the leash has gotten shorter with the power on NIL, there is another trend that we are seeing emerge.

We’ve seen coaches on occasion leave their mid-major job to join a power conference staff as an associate head coach, but usually there are strings attached. For example, Alan Huss has taken over for Greg McDermott after leaving High Point to join Creighton as an associate head coach. However, that was the plan from the beginning and they never hid that fact.

Now, we’ve seen Rick Croy leave Cal Baptist after taking over as the head coach in 2013, leading them to a Division II Sweet 16 and Elite Eight appearance, while also taking them to the NCAA Tournament for the first time this season after transitioning to Division I in 2018. He’ll be joining former Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett at Arizona State as the associate head coach.

Just in the last few days, Campbell’s former head coach John Andrzejek resigned to take the associate head coaching position at Louisville. In a public statement, he essentially called out the administration saying that their commitments had changed as they would not be able to fund a competitive team on the court. Rather than try to fight through with a lack of resources, he decided to step away and join Pat Kelsey.

This isn’t just happening in Men’s Basketball either, as Evansville’s Women’s Head Coach Robyn Scherr stepped away from coaching all together due to the changing landscape.

It begs the question, will we see coaches that become long-term figure heads for their programs for 10, 15, 20+ years? If the transfer portal doesn’t change, it’ll be harder and harder for coaches to not burn themselves out. Especially for the smaller programs that view college basketball as more of an additional revenue stream, rather than the university’s main focus in athletics.

What do you think? How will the coaching landscape continue to change?

Let’s dive in!

Miami Ohio & the 2-Bid MAC

It wouldn’t be feasible to make a list of the best stories to come out of the non-power conferences without addressing Miami Ohio’s perfect regular season and the fact that we had a two-bid MAC for the first time since 1999.

The RedHawks finished the regular season a perfect 31-0 after truthfully cruising through the first half of the season. Until January 17th, they had just one overtime game and won by less than 10 points just five times. As the season went on, you could tell that the pressure of remaining perfect was starting to catch up with them. They had back to back narrow overtime wins against Buffalo and Kent State on January 17th and 20th. Then they won by just two to UMass at home in the next game. They won by a combined six points over their last three regular season games, teeing up a first round exit in the MAC Tournament to UMass 87-83.

After the loss, there was shockingly (or maybe not shockingly) controversy around whether or not Miami’s strength of schedule was going to be good enough to reach the Big Dance without winning the MAC. They faced just two top-200 KenPom teams in the non-conference and played Akron just once on the season, so their schedule was weaker than most. However, the committee did the right thing and rewarded them with a bid, but they were going to have to win in Dayton against SMU to reach the Round of 64.

With all eyes on them, they did exactly what they needed to do against the Mustangs, show off that they can compete with better conferences. They won that game 89-79 as they shot an insane 41 three-pointers, knocking down 16 of them as Elan Elmer was the star of the show with 23 points. While their magic ran out against Tennessee who went on to the elite eight, it was still a magical journey. Peter Suder had 27 points against the Volunteers, but they shot just 7-29 from deep as they fell 78-56.

One thing that I think people forget is, they lost their point guard Evan Ipsaro after just 12 games. He was averaging 13.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 57.1% overall and 39.4% from beyond the arc. When he went down, I thought it would be impossible that they would finish perfect, but it showed how deep that team was. It also leaves us with a bit of a what if…if Ipsaro had been healthy, would that have changed any results?

While the RedHawks were the talk of college basketball, the Akron Zips were quietly right behind them as they were one of the best teams outside of the power conference ranks. The Zips finished 71st in KenPom after falling to Texas Tech 91-71 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a game that was honestly much closer than the final score represented. The Zips started off the year 10-4 with losses to Purdue on the road, Yale and Murray State on neutral courts, and then Miami 76-73 on the road. They fired on all cylinders for the rest of the season, finishing 26-5 and 17-1 in conference, dropping just one game to Troy on the road in the Sun Belt vs MAC challenge in February. They then cruised through the MAC Tournament, taking down Buffalo, Kent State, and Toledo.

In a season that was phenomenal for the MAC, there are now questions around what the conference could look like next season. Will Travis Steele stay at Miami? Will John Groce take the College of Charleston job after Chris Mack left for South Florida? Only time will tell, but don’t let whatever happens put a damper on what an incredible season if was for this conference.

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Navy, Tennessee State, and Idaho finish with their best seasons in decades

As a mid-major publication, there is nothing better than teams that haven’t competed in a long time getting themselves back into the spot light.

Navy hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998 and while unfortunately, they will continue that drought, that doesn’t mean their season wasn’t incredible. The Midshipmen finished 26-8, which was their best season since 1987 when they went 26-6, reached 9th in the AP Poll, and were led by the legendary David Robinson. Unfortunately, they fell to Boston University by one point in the Patriot League Tournament, then lost to Wake Forest 82-72 in the first round of the NIT. While it was a disappointing end to an incredible season, it was a fun journey to follow.

Tennessee State hadn’t been the NCAA Tournament since 1994, but they broke that drought this season. The Tigers finished 23-10 overall and 15-5 in the Ohio Valley Conference while punching their ticket to the Big Dance as a 15-seed. During that drought, the Tigers had just two 20 win seasons, but Nolan Smith took them to 23 wins in just one year on the job. While they were unfortunately demolished by Iowa State in the first round of the the NCAA Tournament, Coach Smith has said that he has no intention of leaving yet. He now has the opportunity to help elevate Tennessee State to a consistently competitive status while also helping the Ohio Valley continue to increase it’s stock.

Idaho is another team that snapped a long dancing drought as the Vandals hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1990. It was a rollercoaster year as the Vandals finished 17-14 overall and 9-9 in the Big Sky during the regular season, but they ripped off four games in a row to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament and punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Ultimately, they were tasked to go up against Houston in the first round where they were rolled over 78-47, but it was exciting to see Idaho be able to make a run late in the season to get themselves back into the Tournament field.

McNeese Wins the Southland Conference Tournament Three Years in a Row

Before Will Wade took over as head coach of the McNeese Cowboys in 2023, the Cowboys hadn’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2002. During that span of time, they finished above .500 just three times. Now, they’ve turned into one of the premier teams outside of the non-power conferences as the Southland continues to grow in strength. McNeese went 30-4 in year one, then 28-7 with an NCAA Tournament win to head to the Round of 32 in year two.

After Will Wade left for NC State (erm…this is awkward) and now LSU, Bill Armstrong took over as head coach. They didn’t miss a step in year one as they finished the season 28-6, winning the Southland Conference Tournament for the third year in a row and three-peating a trip to the NCAA Tournament. They had a tough job against a strong Vanderbilt team, ultimately falling by ten points after going toe-to-toe for the majority of the game.

What’s been fascinating has been their ability to maintain players that are easily power conference level talent. Look at Larry Johnson for example. He finished the season averaging 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 49.2% overall. His 30.5% possession usage was 42nd overall in the country as just a freshman.

With the resources that the Cowboys have in NIL, they’ll continue to compete at the top of the conference and towards the top of the non-power conference programs for a while to come. With Stephen F. Austin on the rise again, the Southland is going to be a blast to watch next season.

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Penn Upsets Yale in the Ivy League Championship

Penn made headlines during the offseason last year after bringing in former Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery to take over the program. They started off well, going 5-2 with wins over Saint Joseph’s and Merrimack, but they skidded to just a 9-10 record and 2-4 in the Ivy League. They rebounded strongly, finishing 7-1 over the last eight games of the regular season.

The Quakers were led by a two headed monster in Ethan Roberts and TJ Power. Roberts averaged 16.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 40.1% overall and 40.4% from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, he battled injuries this season, appearing in just 23 games. The Quakers record in those games that he missed was just 2-3. during the regular season.

TJ Power was the hero of the Ivy League tournament. On the season, he averaged 16.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 45.1% from the floor and 43.2% from three-point. Roberts was forced to miss the conference tournament, but Power stepped up. In their overtime win against Harvard, he finished with 16 points, 12 rebounds, two assists, four steals, and on block. Against Yale in the Championship, he put on a show that sent ripples throughout college basketball. He finished with a whopping 44 points on 7-14 shooting from deep with 14 rebounds, two assists, one steal, and one block He scored half of the team’s points as they went on to upset the Bulldogs 88-84.

While they ultimately fell to Illinois 105-70 in the NCAA Tournament, it marked Fran McCaffery’s fifth team that he’s brought to the Big Dance. With two players bursting out to increase their brand recognition, it’ll be exciting to see how the Ivy League shapes up next season.

Detroit Mercy’s Rebound

This was an underrated story that wasn’t talked about nearly as much as it should have. Two seasons ago, Detroit Mercy finished the season just 1-31 after picking up their lone win over IUPUI (now IU Indy) 81-66 at home. I can still remember watching that game because it became a phenomenon across college basketball social media given that both teams were two of the worst five teams in college basketball.

Following that disastrous season, Mark Montgomery took over as head coach. In year one, he finished 8-24 with some signs of the potential to turn things around. They had seven wins against Division I teams, took some close losses to Wake Forest and Rhode Island in the non-conference, and for the most part were far more competitive in the Horizon League.

In year two, things really turned around. The Titans finished 17-15 on the season and took down Milwaukee and Robert Morris in the Horizon League tournament to reach the Championship game for the first time since 2012 when they took down Valparaiso. They finished the season as winners of nine of their last twelve games to build some real momentum heading into next season.

Unfortunately, they’ve lost their best player in Orlando Lovejoy (15.8 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.6 rebounds) due to lack of eligibility, and rising Sophomore TJ Nadeau has announced his intent to enter the transfer portal. Nadeau averaged 13.8 points and 3.2 rebounds. Junior Ayden Carter who averaged 12.2 points and 4.3 rebounds has yet to announce whether he’ll be staying or leaving, but he did originally cite that he committed to Detroit Mercy to be closer to home, so maybe there is hope that he stays.

Regardless, Mark Montgomery has shown already in just two-years of what he’s capable of building. This season was a huge step in the right direction and this is someone that should be on your radar on the coaching carousel over the next few years.

Thursday gave us some real hope. Miami won the night prior against SMU in an incredible offensive showing, then Siena was up by 11 on Duke at halftime, Howard was within four of Michigan at the half, McNeese gave Vanderbilt a run, Kennesaw State kept up with Gonzaga, High Point took down Wisconsin, South Florida had a real shot at Louisville but opened up too sluggish, VCU beat North Carolina in an epic overtime game, and Saint Louis destroyed Georgia. It got bleak on Friday as no upsets were produced, though technically Utah State was as a nine seed over an eight seed as they beat Villanova, but the Aggies were favored coming into that one. In what could have been no doubt proof that mid-majors could still win in March turned into a repeat of last season.

With the Round of 32 ending, High Point went toe-to-toe with Arkansas, but fell just short at the end. VCU was dominated by Illinois. Saint Louis played great for the first 30 minutes before Michigan decided to remind us why they are a National Championship contender. Utah State gave Arizona a run for their money, but couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole they dug early in the second half.

One thing to look at too is, among the teams that did advance to the Round of 32 here’s their estimated NIL:

• Utah State: Over $2.4m

• Saint Louis: Over $3m based on conversations I’ve had. For comparison, I’m come to learn that the estimated NIL Package for next season to keep Schertz is over $7m.

• High Point: Well over $2m

• VCU: Between $3m-$5m

Trilly Donovan, known reliable college basketball insider, shared on Twitter that all four teams from the non-power conference ranks had around or over $3m, so all of this data ties out to be roughly around correct marks.

What this means is, even for traditional non-power conference teams, you are going to have to shell out some significant cash to get even close to being able to maintain competitiveness. Now the reality is, yes, there is always going to be a sneaky upset…I mean look at what Siena nearly did. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the traditional mid-majors that aren’t funded by a massive alumni base to compete at the same level as those above them.

Now, with a second lackluster NCAA Tournament in a row from the mid-major perspective, we are seeing a lot of discourse online regarding whether or not “Cinderella is dead”. Can we ever see a Loyola Chicago go to the Final Four again? Can we see Saint Peter’s make a run to the Elite Eight? Before I dive in, I’ll just give my opinion now in case you want to stop reading: while I believe this Cinderella is not fully dead, I believe it’s on life support. Let’s talk about why.

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Has NIL Killed Cinderella?

I actually do not blame NIL. College sports have been at a crossroads for a long-time leading up to the ability to make money as a collegiate athlete. Yes, the players would receive free tuition, free travel, benefits on intangibles compared to the average collegiate student, etc. However, their coaches were making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, while players at programs like Kentucky were really taken advantage of given the program was raking in insane amounts of money thanks to 15 kids not seeing a dime of that (now yes, many go on to the NBA or overseas, but you get my point).

The issue is the transfer portal. If you are more than a casual college basketball fan, you are probably tired of hearing this same thing over-and-over again, but the portal is a disaster. It’s a disaster for programs, for players, for coaches, for fans, for everyone in reality. There are no rules, and there are a TON of bad influences on these young, easily misguided players. You can have self-proclaimed agents with no legal or previous agent experience convincing kids to sign over 20-30% or more in commissions in hope of securing the largest contract physically possible, regardless of whether or not that’s in the best interest of the player. Look, it’s nothing for Kentucky to shell out a million to the 10th best player on a roster, but if you could have taken $500,000 from an A-10 school and truly developed, you would increase your potential earnings and potential future professional stock more by going down and making strong money while seeing the floor compared to playing eight minutes in garbage time. However, if you’ve signed to an agent…why on earth would that agent not want you to go to Kentucky so they can cut that larger check?

The reality here is, college athletics open up even more opportunities for these agents. Every year, there is going to be a new pool of hundreds and thousands of athletes that all want the same thing so they could care less if you never go pro because they have another pool of potential players lined up once you’ve run out of eligibility.

I want to flip this script for a second here, having agents is not a bad thing. In many cases, it’s good to have one because otherwise you could be left hung out to dry if you don’t fully understand the contract you are signing. In cases of the top players, you should absolutely have one because if you have a chance of going pro, you need to build a trustworthy relationship as soon as possible. The issue I have is with the fake agents, or in some cases bad inner circles of influences around these players.

With all of these factors combined, we are left with a continuous cycle of players jumping to different teams every year, no continuity, and yet the fans are expected to pay their alma maters or just favorite programs money to build a new roster every season. For what? There is no return on investment other than pleasure for people that are investing in NIL from a fan perspective. If you happened to hit it big and have a plethora of cash to spend? Sure, do what you want. I’d do the same thing for my alma mater if I were in that position.

Until the transfer portal is corrected, the idea of having mid-major Cinderella teams make a return to the big dance is going to diminish with the exception of those handful of programs out there that happen to have some wealthy donors that are satisfied with donation cash with no real ROI.

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What should we do?

The sad truth is, that really there’s nothing that we can do. The answer, in my opinion at least, relies on the idea of contracts for players. I’m by no means against players making money as coaches make millions and programs rake in millions for the top programs. However, if we are going to treat the NCAA as the professional league it is, there needs to be contractual rules in place. Let’s break down an example:

• Player: Freshman 3-star recruit that played at Furman

• The player signs a two-year contract for $150,000, with a buy-out clause at 50% the value of the total contract.

• During his freshman season, he averaged 14 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds

• Following his freshman season, his agent receives a call from New Mexico offering 2-years $300,000.

In this example, the player has to make the decision on whether or not to bet on himself. After a successful season at Furman, do you want to risk going to New Mexico for $300,000, but forfeiting $75,000 immediately? Are you going to get minutes, or are you going to ride the bench as the 10th or 11th man? Do you want to play or do you want to get paid?

Now, this example works in two different scenarios. You can imagine that if it’s not the player paying a fee, it’s New Mexico paying the buyout fee. This happens all the time across independent leagues. In many cases, if an MLB team finds a hidden gem out of the Frontier league, they have to pay an additional fee to buy out that players contract. In fact, that’s how the tiny independent teams stay afloat for some teams.

This won’t fix everything, but this would certainly make it a more fair fight for the underdogs in college basketball. If you lose a player, you will at the very least not lose them for free. You’ll gain some value that you can turnaround and spend on their replacement. You are then investing in the development of those players because either you keep them and they turn into seasoned, star players or they transfer and you collect revenue that you can spend on other players.

I’ll end this by saying, this was a very disappointing NCAA Tournament. For what opened with so much promise, we are left with nothing except for the top of the top all fighting. Will that be good for ratings? Sure. Is that good for the overall health of the NCAA? I’d argue no. Look at other leagues that had the same teams over-and-over again in the Championships or Conference Finals/Championships. The ratings and/or super fan support eventually fall off because the some fans gets tired of seeing the same teams every year.

We can only hope that some force comes together to save the sport that we love because right now, it’s hard to stay optimistic about what it’s going to look like in five years.

Let’s dive into all of the mid-major matchups you need to know about in the Midwest region!

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Georgia (8) vs Saint Louis (9)

Saint Louis was one of the best teams outside of the traditional power conferences this season. The Billikens started off 24-1 on the season and 12-0 in the A-10 while taking just a one point loss on a late shot to Stanford. They took a handful of losses late in the season to Rhode Island, Dayton, George Mason, and Dayton again in the conference tournament. However, finishing 28-5 is still a remarkable feat.

The Billikens are 41st in KenPom, 51st in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 43rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Led by players like Robbie Avila, Trey Green, Amari McCottry, and more…this is a team that could go deep. Head coach Josh Schertz will be hungry as well for his first NCAA Tournament win, especially after inking a lucrative deal to stay as the head coach with significant additional resources coming his way.

We covered this matchup in depth earlier this week in our Top 5 potential upsets post, which you can view here (or below)!

Texas Tech (5) vs Akron (12)

We have another 5-12 matchup that you should really be keeping an eye on. The Akron Zips were overshadowed by Miami this season in the MAC, but the Zips went 29-5 on the season and they sit at 64th in KenPom. their non-conference losses were to Purdue, Yale, and Murray State who was on fire in the first half of the season.

The Zips are 54th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 114th in defensive adjusted efficiency. John Groce runs a quick offense at 32nd in tempo and 31st in average possession length, so it’s not uncommon they score 90+. In fact, they’ve done that 17 times this season. They are 8th in effective field goal percentage, 14th in three-point shooting percentage, and 12th in two-point shooting percentage. Akron is about as good of a shooting team as you are going to find.

Tavari Johnson is the star of the show as he averages 20.1 points, three rebounds, five assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 51.2% overall and 37.3% from three-point. Johnson is 188th in offensive rating, 134th in possession usage, and 119th in true-shooting percentage. Amani Lyles is another name to know as he is averaging 14.6 points, eight rebounds, 2.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 55.7% overall and 37.5% from three-point. Lyles is 60th in effective field goal percentage and 55th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Texas Tech is 22-10 on the season and 20th overall in KenPom. They are a bit cold as of late, going just 3-4 over their last seven games. They are also without star JT Toppin who was averaging 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. They run a slower tempo at 245th overall, so quite different from the Zips.

For Texas Tech, they have to slow down Akron, however, they haven’t done a great job of bringing opponents to their speed. They are 119th in opponent average possession length. Without JT Toppin, they are going to be exposed more for a team that is just 357th in bench minutes on the season.

For Akron, they have an opportunity to become a true Bracket Buster. One that could not only take down Texas Tech, but potentially even make a run to the Sweet 16 if the stars align. They are one of the best offensive teams in the country with a plethora of scoring options, elite ball movement, and high basketball IQ.

Consider taking the Akron Zips as a fun upset.

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Alabama (4) vs Hofstra (13)

Death. Taxes. Alabama basketball playing with some wild controversy. It was announced that Aden Holloway had been arrested earlier this week and barring any insane juking of the legal system, he’ll be absent from Bama’s game against Hofstra. Holloway averages 16.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists for the Crimson Tide, so this is a massive loss.

Hofstra is in position to take advantage. The Pride are 24-10 on the season coming into this game and they are about as well balanced as you can get. They rank 88th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 95th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how some of their key metrics shape up:

• 10th in opponent effective field goal percentage

• 51st in offensive rebounding percentage

• 29th in three-point shooting percentage

• 76th in opponent three-point shooting percentage

• 3rd in opponent two-point shooting percentage

• 27th in steal percentage

They run a slow scheme as they are 317th in tempo and just 334th in average possession length at over 19 seconds per possession. Over their last ten games, they are 32nd in defensive adjusted efficiency per BartTorvik as well. This is a slow, defensive minded team which is exactly the type that could pull off an upset in the NCAA Tournament.

Cruz Davis is a star for Hofstra. The 6’3 junior averages 20.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 44.3% overall and 39.9% from three-point. He’s dropped 30+ points four times this season, and less than ten points just three times.

Bama is a night-and-day difference in how they play. They are 3rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 67th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 4th in tempo, and 8th in average possession length. They rank 29th in three-point shooting percentage, but Holloway was their leading shooter at 43.8% from beyond the arc. Philon Jr. is the only other shooting over 40% at 40.2%. The next closes is Amari Allen at 36.5%.

The Pride are an elite defensive team from inside the paint, so couple that with Alabama losing their best three-point shooter…something could be brewing there. However, if Alabama can keep the game sped up, they’ll be able to handle Hofstra with ease. The key for the Pride is going to be to slow the pace of the game and make the Crimson Tide play to their style. Hofstra scores 37.4% of their points from outside, which is 41st in the nation, and Bama is just 156th in opponent three-point shooting. In fact, their opponents score 29.1% of their points from three-point which is 270th overall.

There are a lot of factors that are trending the right way for Hofstra, and it’s still very much an up-hull climb, but things are going to be VERY interesting in this game.

We recently posted a video breakdown the Hofstra Pride in depth, check it out below!

Miami Ohio (11) vs SMU (11)

They did it! The Miami RedHawks earned the at-large bid with a chance to make the field of 64 by playing SMU in Dayton as a part of the First Four. The two teams will matchup tonight as there’s no doubt this is one of the most talked about First Four games in a long time.

The RedHawks finished the perfect regular season, going 31-0, but fell to UMass in the MAC Conference Tournament, forcing the Selection Committee to do the right thing and give the MAC two-bids in the Big Dance. They rank 70th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 6th in effective field goal percentage, 40th in turnover percentage, 58th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt, 22nd in three-point shooting percentage, 2nd in two-point shooting percentage, 51st in block percentage, 89th in steal percentage, and 30th in non-steal turnover percentage.

Essentially, this is an elite offensive team. Their defensive metrics aren’t nearly as good, but they aren’t terrible as they sit at 157th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

SMU is entering Dayton ice cold. They’ve won just one of their last six games and just five games since January 24th. They are 42nd in KenPom and built a little similarly to Miami. They are 26th in offensive adjusted efficiency, but just 92st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Tempo-wise they are 115th compared to Miami at 44th.

The RedHawks have six players averaging 10+ points per game, with Peter Suder leading the charge. He’s averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, four assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 55.4% overall and 42.9% from beyond the arc. He is 119th in effective field goal percentage, 242nd in offensive rating, and 301st in assist rate.

The winner of this game will take on Tennessee in the Round of 64. The Volunteers are 22-11 and 16th in KenPom. They’ve had an up-and-down year with some strong wins over Houston, Louisville, Alabama, and Vanerbilt, but they also lost to Syracuse and pulled out some very close wins over borderline teams. They are 34th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 15th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They ended the season just 2-4 in their last six games, so whoever wins between Miami and SMU will have some momentum going their way.

Virginia (3) vs Wright State (14)

The Wright State Raiders cruised through the traditionally unpredictable Horizon League this season, going 23-11 overall and 15-5 in conference. They rank 118th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 193rd in defensive adjusted efficiency.

Michael Cooper has been one of the most underrated freshman in the country for Wright State. The 6’3 guard is averaging 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 44.9% overall and 36.4% from three-point. He can be streaky, as any freshman can, but when he’s on he’s nearly impossible to stop.

As a team, they are 59th in effective field goal percentage, 88th in offensive rebounding percentage, 50th in three-point shooting percentage, 74th in two-point shooting percentage, and 90th in non-steal turnover percentage. They score a ton of points, but shockingly don’t run a super fast offense. The Raiders are just 192nd in tempo and 228th in average possession length at nearly 18 seconds per possession.

Virginia is 29-5 and 13th in KenPom. They sit at 27th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 16th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This isn’t the old Cavaliers that are scoring 50 points per game, but they still run a slower tempo under Ryan Odom as they are 270th in tempo and 149th in average possession length.

Wright State is going to have to shoot their way out of this matchup and with as good of a defense as Virginia has, it’s going to be very difficult.

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Kentucky (7) vs Santa Clara (10)

The WCC was viewed as a three-bid league potentially coming into the season with Gonzaga & Saint Mary’s leading the charge, however, it was San Francisco that had a lot of eyes on them. Santa Clara started off hot at 6-0 with wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, and Minnesota with a one point loss to Saint Louis within the month of November. Things got quiet as they started off December just 1-3, but they rebounded well to lose just three more games the rest of the entire season. They are 26-8 on the season and 35th in KenPom.

They rank 23rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 82nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Their offense is the true driver, led by Christian Hammond who is averaging 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game as just a sophomore.

Kentucky on the other hand as been far too inconsistent through out the season for a team that came in with a lot of expectations. The Wildcats are 21-13 and 28th in KenPom. Over their final seven games of the season, they went just 2-5, scrapped by LSU in the SEC Tournament, and beat Missouri who snuck into the tournament just 78-72.

We covered this matchup in depth earlier this week in our Top 5 potential upsets post, which you can view here (or below)!

Iowa State (2) vs Tennessee State (15)

Tennessee State has been an incredible story to follow throughout the season. Nolan Smith took over as head coach and has led the Tigers to a 23-9 record in year one. In the non-conference, they kept up with Belmont, Western Kentucky, and Tennessee in the first half before being blown out in the second half.

They rank 173rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 211th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They won’t blow you away, but they are 24th in opponent turnover percentage, 33rd in block percentage, 50th in offensive rebound percentage, and 12th in opponent steal percentage. They take great care of the ball.

Aaron Nkrumah & Travis Harper II are both phenomenal players. Nkrumah is averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists, and 2.8 steals while shooting 43.7% overall and 35.2% from three-point. He is 5th in the country in steal percentage and 163rd in possession usage. Harper II is averaging 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 47.6% overall and 40.1% from three-point. He is 164th in offensive rating, 103rd in true-shooting percentage, and 110th in three-point shooting.

Iowa State is a wagon. They rank 6th in KenPom and come into the game at 27-7 on the season. They are 21st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 4th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They’ve been a little bit up-and-down recently as they ended the season just 2-3 in their last five games, however…they are good enough to go to a Final Four or more.

Michigan (1) vs Howard (16)

The Howard Bison picked up their first NCAA Tournament win in program history over UMBC last night in the opening game of the 2026 tournament in Dayton as part of the First Four. They took down UMBC 86-83 as Ose Okojie poured in 23 points, while Bryce Harris had 19 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists.

The Bison are an incredibly defensive-minded team. They are 129th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 37th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 14th in opponent turnover percentage, 30th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 56th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, 21st in opponent steal percentage, and 25th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage.

They finished the season at 23-10 and are coming into this game at 24-10. However, Michigan is a National Championship contender, so unfortunately, Howard has a nearly impossible task.

Yesterday we covered the East and South Regions of the 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket and today, we’ll wrap up our breakdown of every Mid-Major game in the tournament! Let’s take a look at the West Region.

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Villanova (8) vs Utah State (9)

It is to be expected that the eight and nine seeds are close to one another with their metrics, but Utah State and Villanova are an interesting matchup where the Aggies actually outpace the Wildcats in the majority of statistics besides being a position lower in their seeding.

Utah State enters at 28-6 on the season and 30th overall in KenPom. They started off 23-3 and 13-2 in the Mountain West before stumbling a bit to end the season on a 2-3 stretch over their last five games. They fell to Nevada and San Diego State on the road, as well as taking their second loss to UNLV. Once they reached the Mountain West Tournament, they rebounded well by passing UNLV, Nevada, and San Diego State to punch their picked to the Big Dance.

Utah State leads Villanova in nearly all of the key metrics, but this will be a close game and the Aggies should be favored for the small seed upset here. If they win, they’ll take on Arizona (unless Long Island pulls off the incredible upset) in the Round of 32.

You can view our full breakdown of this matchup here (or below!)

Wisconsin (5) vs High Point (12)

The Wisconsin Badgers have been an interesting team because they came into conference play lacking a true top non-conference win. They had beat Providence and Marquette, both of which struggled this season. However, they turned it on, taking down Michigan on the road to wake people up. They went on to finish 24-10 before falling to Michigan by just three points in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

High Point has been electric in year one with Flynn Clayman at the helm of head coach. The Panthers are 30-4 on the season and run a high-octane offense with players like Terry Anderson who is a Bracket Buster in the making. They rank 67th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and in the top-50 of several key categories.

We wrote about top potential upsets with the most intriguing games, including this one earlier this week. You can view our full breakdown of this matchup here (or below)!

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Arkansas (4) vs Hawaii (13)

Oh boy, we have a juicy matchup between Hawaii and Arkansas. A lot of people have the Razorbacks going deep in the tournament because they’ve played very well this season. They are 26-8, 15th in KenPom and won the SEC Tournament by taking down Vanderbilt 86-75. They have wins over Louisville, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt twice, Missouri twice, Texas A&M, and Texas.

Hawaii has been a fun team to watch this season as well. They are 24-8, 108th in KenPom, and competed with both Oregon and Arizona State in the non-conference, losing to Oregon by one point and Arizona State by seven. The Rainbow Warriors run a unique “no help” defense which has resulted in some insane defensive statistics:

• 42nd in defensive adjusted efficiency

• 16th in opponent effective field goal percentage

• 10th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage

• 28th in opponent three-point shooting percentage

• 22nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage

• 15th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt

• 3rd in opponent assist per field goals made

They run with eight players all averaging 20+ minutes per game, but Isaac Johnson leads the team on the offensive end. He averages 14.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 50.3% overall and 31.5% from three-point. He features a 29.5% possession usage which is 74th overall and he draws 6.2 fouls per game which is the 66th most in the country.

If Hawaii wants to try and pull this off, it’s going to all fall on their defense. Offensively, they are just 210th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and they are a liability from outside as they are just 300th in three-point shooting percentage. They are strong inside at 62nd in two-point shooting percentage, but the Razorbacks will certainly be blocking off the lanes. However, if Hawaii can pester them into foul trouble, the Rainbow Warriors are 29th in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts and they score 23.2% of their points from the line which is 38th in the country.

I’ll wrap up this matchup by saying the Coach Calipari is no stranger to falling to a fun mid-major in the NCAA Tournament. While Arkansas runs an incredible offensive system and yes…someone is going to have to guard Darius Acuff in the no help defense, however, if Hawaii can keep their defense strong on everyone else…they could have a chance.

Gonzaga (3) vs Kennesaw State (14)

After the national news of another illegal betting scandal took away one of the Kennesaw State Owls’ best players in Simeon Cottle earlier this season, there were a lot of question marks around how they would recover. They stayed the course, finishing 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Conference USA. As they ended the conference tournament as the six-seed, they took down Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, and Louisiana Tech to claim the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

As a team, they sit at 140th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 192nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. They aren’t going to blow your minds, but they do the fundamentals well. They are 40th in offensive rebounding percentage and 24th in non-steal turnover percentage. They love to live at the free throw line as they are 7th in the country in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt and they score 23.7% of their points from the line which is 26th most in the country.

Sophomore RJ Johnson has taken over as the go-to offensive weapon in place of Cottle. He is averaging 14.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, four assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 45.7% overall and 36.8% from beyond the arc. He is 76th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage and 132nd in assist rate.

Gonzaga on the other hand is 10th in KenPom, 29th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 9th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 30-3 with losses to just Michigan, Saint Mary’s, and the random loss to Portland on the road. They are virtually in the top-25 or top-30 of all key metrics.

If the Owls want any chance to hand the Zags a huge upset loss in the first round, they are going to have to live at the free throw line. Fouling is the Zags one, true weakness as they are 281st in opponent free throw attempts vs field goal attempts. They sit at 215th in opponent free throw point distribution percentage. If the Owls can continuously get to the line while putting Gonzaga in foul trouble, they could make the game interesting.

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Purdue (2) vs Queens (15)

The Queens Royals punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament after taking down West Georgia, Austin Peay, and Central Arkansas in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. The ASUN was a blast to watch these season with a number of teams that took huge steps forward and Queens was one of those teams.

Offense drives their success as they rank 77th in the nation in offensive adjusted efficiency. They are 15th in effective field goal percentage, 54th in turnover percentage, 68th in three-point shooting percentage, and 32nd in non-steal percentage percentage. In fact, six players average 10+ points per game.

Nasir Mann leads the team while averaging 13.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 49.5% overall and 32.7% from three-point. He’s been hot of late as well as he is averaging 17.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.8 steals over his last six games.

Unfortunately for the Royals, Purdue runs the best offense in the country as the Boilermakers are 1st in offensive adjusted efficiency. The Royals on the other hand are 322nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Unfortunately, those two things don’t line up well and the Boilermakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season as of late. This is going to be tough for Queens to keep up.

Arizona (1) vs Long Island (16)

Fins up! The Long Island Sharks gave us some fun games this season. They nearly took down Mississippi State, gave Georgia a run, and beat some solid mid-majors in the non-conference. They finished the regular season 21-10 and 15-3 in the NEC, then held off a scrappy Chicago State squad, Wagner, and Mercyhurst in the Tournament Championship to head to the Big Dance.

They aren’t going to blow your mind in metrics, but they aren’t your average NEC team. They are 90th in effective field goal percentage, 51st in three-point shooting percentage, 72nd in blocking percentage, 62nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 14th in block percentage, and 44th in opponent steal percentage.

Jamal Fuller is the name to know as they 6’5 senior is averaging 16.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 blocks, and one steal per game while shooting 52.5% overall and 43.8% from beyond the arc. His 27.9% possession usage is 126th in the nation.

They are not going to take down Arizona, given the Wildcats are a legitimate National Championship contender, however, Long Island should give us the best gave from any of the 16 seeds (although Howard looked good last night). Enjoy the run Shark fans, Fins up!

Without further-ado, let’s break down the South Region!

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South Region

Vanderbilt (5) vs McNeese (12)

This is the spiciest matchup of the entire tournament in the Round of 64 in my opinion. After Vanderbilt ended the season 24-7 with wins over UCF, VCU, Saint Mary’s, SMU, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Tennessee, to then go to the SEC Tournament and beat Tennessee again, drilling Florida (a one seed) 91-74, then losing in the SEC Championship to Arkansas, I almost assumed that the Commodores were guaranteed a four-seed, maybe even the last three. I would have never assumed they would receive a five-seed.

While Commodores fans can be frustrated, McNeese fans should be even more frustrated with the fact they have to play an under-seeded power conference school. While this isn’t Will Wade’s McNeese squad, Bill Armstrong has done a phenomenal job in year one as the Cowboys are 28-5 with wins over quite a few strong mid-majors. They are 68th in KenPom, 91st in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 49th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

The Cowboys thrive on creating turnovers, blocking out, and shot blocking. They are 33rd in turnover percentage, 1st in opponent turnover percentage, 49th in offensive rebounding percentage, 13th in block percentage, 4th in opponent block percentage, 2nd in steal percentage, and 1st in opponent steal percentage.

Larry Johnson is an absolute monster. He averaged 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 50.2% overall. His 30.4% possession usage is 45th in the nation, and he’s taking 33.2% of the Cowboys shots when he’s on the court which is 16th in the nation. Lately, he’s been on another level. Over his last seven games he is averaging 20.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game, including an insane stat line of 27 points, 12 rebounds, and seven steals in the Southland semifinals.

Coming in here, Vanderbilt is ranked 12th in KenPom and they take great care of the ball. They are 47th in non-steal turnover percentage and 11th in turnover percentage. This is what makes the matchup difficult for McNeese because they thrive off exactly what Vanderbilt is great at on both ends of the court. However, that’s not putting the nail in the coffin for McNeese. This is a team full of power conference caliber players that’s going to go toe-to-toe with one of the best from the SEC this season. Pencil this in as the most competitive 12-5 seed matchup in the NCAA Tournament this season.

Nebraska (4) vs Troy (13)

Troy has been a wild team to follow all season. If you’ve tuned in at all to our weekly Heat Check Reports during the regular season, you’ll know that we’ve covered them many times because of how streaky they can be. They took down a tough Kent State squad, beat San Diego State in double-overtime, lost to USC in triple-overtime by one point, beat Akron, UAB, etc. However, they lose to West Georgia (304th in KenPom), and took six losses in conference.

For Nebraska, it’s been the season of Cornhuskers’ dreams for a team that is seeking to finally claim their first win in the NCAA Tournament in program history. They started off 20-0 before dropping some close games to Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa.

The Trojans are 141st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 166th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 152nd in effective field goal percentage, 108th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 55th in offensive rebounding percentage, 43th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 96th in two-point shooting percentage, 309th in tempo, and 54th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts.

Even breaking down their metrics shows just how all over the place this Troy team is. However, where they can take advantage of Nebraska is on the offensive glass. The Cornhuskers are just 314th in offensive rebounding percentage, compared to Troy’s 55th. Nebraska isn’t terrible on defense inside the paint, but they are average at best, so Troy has the opportunity to take advantage of second chance points inside, even if just 44.7% of their points are coming from inside the arc.

Thomas Dowd is the name to know from Troy. The 6’8 junior is averaging 14.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.2 steals while shooting 45.1% overall and 34.4% from three-point. In their win against San Diego State he had 25 points with 19 rebounds. He posted a streak of five double-doubles in a row at one point.

This is a tough matchup for Troy considering the Cornhuskers have the ceiling to go on a deep run in the Tournament, but on the flip side, the Trojans have shown that they have the potential to knock off anyone on any given day. I expect this to not be a blowout and be a game that people will be flipping to in the final minutes.

Check out our Top Five Potential Upsets!

North Carolina (6) vs VCU (11)

I view this matchup between VCU very similarly to how I view the South Florida vs Louisville game as another 6 vs 11 seed. VCU is 27-7 on the season, 45th in KenPom, and 43rd in the NET. They started off a little up-and-down, losing to Utah State by three points, NC State by six, Vanderbilt by 15, and New Mexico bs three. However, they also picked up wins over South Florida and Virginia Tech in the non-conference. They cruised through the A-10, going 15-3 while taking down Dayton twice and only losing to Saint Louis in both matchups and George Mason on the road by six.

The Rams have traditionally been a stout defensive team, but they are a tad bit more offensively minded this season. They rank 46th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 60th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how their key metrics line up:

• 67th in effective field goal percentage

• 62nd in opponent effective field goal percentage

• 74th in turnover percentage

• 15th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt

• 35th in three-point shooting percentage

• 116th in two-point shooting percentage

• 54th in non-steal turnover percentage

• 131st in opponent three-point shooting percentage

• 50th in opponent two-point shoot percentage

Terrence Hill Jr has been incredible this season. He’s averaging 14.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 46.1% overall and 35.5% from three-point. Lazar Djokovic has been an huge piece to the puzzle as he is averaging 13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, one assist, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 51.6% from the floor and 35.6% from beyond the arc.

North Carolina comes into this game at 24-8 on the season, 29th in KenPom, and 24th in the NET. They lost standout freshman Caleb Wilson for the season with a broken thump on February 10th against Miami and that’s thrown a wrench in things. Coming into that game they were 19-4, but they dropped that game to Miami, then took an 82-58 loss to NC State, and a 76-61 loss to Duke. In the remaining games they did win, they had to just skirt past Louisville by three, Virginia Tech by seven, and Clemson by four all at home.

If VCU wants to complete the upset, they’ll need to focus on the three-pointer. UNC is just 216th in opponent three point shooting percentage and their opponents score 33.8% of their points from beyond the arc, an area where VCU thrives. The Rams are 95th in the country in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts and score 34.3% of their points from deep.

If UNC wants to avoid being upset, they need to keep the Rams off the line. VCU lives at the free throw line as they score 23% of their points at the line which is 44th in the nation and they are 18th in free throw attempts per game. The Tar Heals do not foul, in fact, they are 16th in the country in least amount of fouls per game and their opponents score just 14.8% of their points from the stripe which is 358th in the country.

This is going to be a very close game and VCU has momentum, while North Carolina is going to be swinging without their future NBA player Caleb Wilson. We’re going with the Rams.

Check out our breakdown of the East Region here!

Illinois (3) vs Penn (14)

TJ Power. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Okay, so this is probably one of the funniest matchups of the entire tournament’s opening round. We’ve got Brad Underwood going up against Fran McCaffrey once again as McCaffrey is taking his fifth team to the NCAA Tournament with the Penn Quakers.

While everyone assumed that Yale would be the team in the Ivy League to come out with the single-bid, but TJ Power’s 44 point performance including the game-tying three nearly at the buzzer to send them to overtime in the Ivy League Championship. Power is averaging 16.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 45.5% overall and 43.3% from beyond the arc. He is 27th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage.

Penn started off just 9-10, but finished the season 18-11 with just a four-point loss to Yale preventing them from being undefeated from January 31st and on. They are 150th in KenPom, 204th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 111th in defensive adjusted efficiency. No shocker with TJ Power’s stats, but they are 11th in three-point shooting percentage and 89th in steal percentage.

Unfortunately, Illinois has an incredibly high ceiling. They are unique because they have the ability to fall flat, which means that Penn’s chances are not 0% here. TJ Power has the light of March Madness in him that is just prime for a Jack Golhke-esq performance against the Illini. However, Illinois is 2nd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 28th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are essentially at the top of the majority of categories. If they can contain Power, then this won’t be a problem.

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Saint Mary’s (7) vs Texas A&M (10)

Bucky McMillan vs Randy Bennett is a dream matchup as both coaches rely on the unique styles of play and are incredibly strategic coaches. Kudos to what McMillan has done this season as Texas A&M didn’t have much love coming into the year. They started off 7-1 in the SEC, and although they finished just 11-7 they still picked up wins over Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Kentucky.

For Saint Mary’s, they enter play at 27-5 with loses to Vanderbilt, Boise State by one point, Santa Clara twice, and Gonzaga on the road. They ended their regular season with a win against Gonzaga at home in their last regular season matchup between the two rivals as members of the WCC. The Gaels sit at 24th in KenPom and 22nd in the NET, while lining up at 43rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 19th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their key team metrics line up:

• 108th in effective field goal percentage

• 18th in opponent effective field goal percentage

• 15th in offensive rebounding percentage

• 4th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage

• 13th in three-point shooting percentage

• 41st in opponent three-point shooting percentage

• 20th in opponent two-point shooting percentage

• 1st in free throw shooting percentage

• 41st in steal percentage

A&M is 49th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 41st in defensive adjusted efficiency, but they love to play fast as they are 29th in tempo and 14th in average possession length. They lack interior defense and struggle to score inside as they are just 334th in two-point distribution in total points and are 327th in block percentage. If Saint Mary’s can get inside, they’ll be able to take advance.

If A&M wants to pull off the upset, they’ll need to focus on locking down Saint Mary’s from outside. They have a decent perimeter defense at 54th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, where the Gaels are 13th in the country. However, Saint Mary’s needs to do the same as the Aggies score 37% of their points from outside which is 50th in the country. On the flip side, they don’t score any points from inside the arc where Saint Mary’s is lethal on defense.

Who ever wins? A date with Houston in the Round of 32. Give us the Gaels over A&M. Check out why I think this Saint Mary’s team is built to better position itself this season:

Houston (2) vs Idaho (15)

Idaho finished the regular season just 17-14 and 9-9 in the Big Sky, but they went on a run in the conference tournament, taking down Sacramento State, Montana State, Eastern Washington, and Montana to clinch their bid to the Big Dance.

The Vandals are 145th in KenPom, 176th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 136th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They aren’t going to blow you away in any key categories, but they are well balance. They sit at 148th in three-point shooting percentage, 169th in two-point shooting percentage, 63rd in turnover percentage, 5th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, and 74th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Kolton Mitchell has put together a strong sophomore campaign, averaging 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 39.3% from the floor and 35.9% from three-point. He had some dominating games, including two 30+ point performances.

This is a real tough matchup for an Idaho team that came out of the Big Sky that many thought Portland State would have no problem with. Unfortunately, Houston has many sending them to the Final Four, with others (including myself) sending them to the NCAA Championship.

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Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh (16) vs Florida (1)

While many would have loved to have seen a Lehigh vs Duke matchup to bring back old memories, however, this year we’ll see them go up against Prairie View A&M in Dayton as part of the First Four. The Panthers come in at 18-17 out of the SWAC and the Mountain Hawks sit at 18-16 after winning the Patriot League that Navy won by six games in the regular season.

While we are always rooting for small teams, Florida’s going to take this one easily.

First up, we’re breaking down the East Region!

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East Region

St. Johns (5) vs Northern Iowa (12)

The Northern Iowa Panthers had an up-and-down season, starting off 12-3 and 4-0 in the Missouri Valley, but they fell to just a 1-6 stretch. They finished the regular season 19-12 and 11-9, but won four games in a row in Arch Madness to pick up the auto-bid to the Big Dance.

The Panthers are 72nd in KenPom and the NET. They are driven by their defense as they sit at 24th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 101st in two-point shooting percentage, and 3rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Trey Campbell is the leading player, averaging 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 44% overall and 34.7% from beyond the arc.

St. John’s was a preseason favorite, but they fell flat at the beginning as they opened up to just 4-3. However, they figured it out as they’ve lost just twice since the calendar turned to 2026, falling to Providence 77-71 and UConn in an insane 72-40 rout. They cruised through the Big East Tournament, including a 72-52 win over UConn in the Championship.

There are a few factors coming into play here as I feel like St. John’s could’ve been a four-seed, while Northern Iowa could’ve maybe been a 13-seed. However, these two defenses make it an interesting game to monitor. St. John’s sits at 12th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 68th in tempo, while UNI is top-25 in defense as well, but just 363rd in tempo. On the offensive end, UNI is 52nd in two-point shooting and 128th in three-point shooting, compared to St. John’s who sits at 190th and 216th in both.

If the Panthers want to pick up the win over the Red Storm, they are going to have to force them to play at their speed, play excellent defense as St. John’s isn’t an efficient shooting team. For St. John’s, they need to focus on the offensive glass as they are one of the best in the country at 28th and UNI is 356th.

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Kansas (4) vs Cal Baptist (13)

Kansas has been in the highlights of college basketball all season for sometimes the right thing and many times the wrong. With the dilemma and conversations around Darryn Peterson, it makes the Jayhawks come into the tournament in an interesting position. They are 23-10, 21st in KenPom, and the NET. However, they are just 4-5 over their last nine games including blow out losses to Iowa State, Cincinnati, Arizona, Houston, and a ten-point loss to Arizona State. They do have a strong 69-56 win at home over Houston during that span.

Cal Baptist has been a fun story from the beginning of the year as the Lancers started off 7-0 with wins over UC Irvine and Oregon State. They lost by eight to Colorado and 91-85 to Utah both on the road. They finished the season 23-8 and 13-5 the WAC while taking down Utah Tech and Utah Valley in the tournament to clinch their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in program history since joining the Division I ranks in 2018. They are 106th in KenPom and 98th in the NET.

If you haven’t heard of him yet, you need to familiarize yourself with Dominique Daniels Jr. on Cal Baptist. He’s averaging 23.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 43.7% overall and 32.8% from three-point. He’s dropped 40+ points twice, including 47 against Utah Valley earlier in the season, and he’s finished with single-digit points just once in their fifth game of the season. His 31% possession usage is 34th in the nation and he takes 34% of the Lancers’ shots when he’s on the court which is 11th overall.

Defense is the driver of both teams as Kansas is 10th in defensive adjusted efficiency and Cal Baptist is 50th. The Lancers are 15th in opponent effective field goal percentage and the Jayhawks are 4th. Both teams don’t run necessarily quick offenses, and they rely on the paint as Kansas is 120th in 2pt distribution and Cal Baptist is 80th, despite being just 318th in two-point shooting percentage.

If Cal Baptist wants to pull this off, they have to ensure that Daniels Jr. is not cut off. There’s no doubt that he’ll be on the face of all of Kansas’ scouting reports this week and he’ll be the focal point of their defensive pressure when they tip off on Friday. Aside from Daniels Jr., they’ll need to focus cleaning up the offensive glass as they are 11th in the nation and Kansas is just average at boxing out as they sit at 168th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.

All four of the 13-4 seeded matchups are interesting this year and with the way that Kansas has finished the season it doesn’t instill full confidence that they’ll be game ready come Friday and Cal Baptist matches up well against the Jayhawks.

Louisville (6) vs South Florida (11)

The Bracket has been released for a day and a half now and I’ve already seen conversations around this game all over the college basketball world. The Bulls are a fun team to watch and one that could make a trip to the Sweet-16 if the cards land right, but they’ll have to get past a tough Louisville team first.

You can check out our full breakdown on this matchup here in our NCAA Tournament Top 5 Potential Upsets article.

Michigan St (3) vs North Dakota St (14)

While Wright State and Virginia is an intriguing 3 vs 14 seed matchup, Michigan State and North Dakota State is right there as well. The Bison come in at 27-7 on the season, 113th in KenPom, and 114th in the NET. They are a well balanced team at 124th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 124th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

The Bison are led by Damari Wheeler-Thomas who averages 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 40.4% overall and 38.5% from three-point. He’s finished with less than 10 points just five times this season. Then Trevian Carson is right behind with 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.9 steals per game while shooting 48.1% overall and 37.9% from three-point. On the offensive end, he’s been a little cold of late however, even when he isn’t scoring he’s filling up the stat sheet. Over his last ten games, he’s averaging 8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. He’s dished out seven assists twice during that span.

Here’s where they lie with their team metrics:

• 85th in effective field goal percentage

• 109th in turnover percentage

• 62nd in opponent turnover percentage

• 77th in offensive rebounding percentage

• 17th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage

• 73rd in three-point shooting percentage

• 126th in two-point shooting percentage

This is a team that isn’t at the bottom of anything, but isn’t at the top of many categories either. While I think it’s going to be very difficult to take down the Spartans, I firmly believe that North Dakota State would have the best opportunity among any of the 14-seeds sheerly because they do everything well or above average, giving them the versatility to match against the Spartans.

UConn (2) vs Furman (15)

Furman started off the season strong at 10-4 then moved on to 16-7 and 7-3 in the SoCon. However, things fell off as they finished the season just 19-12 and 10-8 in conference, yet they managed to go on a run by taking down Samford, UNC Greensboro, and the one-seed East Tennessee State 76-61 in the SoCon Championship.

They sit at 200th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 181st in defensive adjusted efficiency and 191st in KenPom. Alex Wilkins has been one of the best freshman in the country this season as the 6’5 guard is averaging 17.7 points, two rebounds, and 4.7 assists while shooting 45.8% overall and 32.1% from deep. His 34.4% possession usage is 7th in the nation, while his 34.7 assist rate is 32nd. When he’s on the court for the Paladins, he’s taking 32.9% of the team’s shots which is 21st in the country.

UConn was looking at a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Marquette in the last game of the season after having suffered a 91-84 loss to Creighton just a couple of weeks before. The Huskies at 29-5, still in conversation for a Final Four or even Championship appearance. While Furman can be a scrappy mid-major, it has a tall task in facing off against UConn.

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Duke (1) vs Siena (16)

Will we ever get another UMBC? The statistics don’t say no, but it’s probably not going to happen this year. For Siena, they came out of the MAAC which had a tremendous season with Merrimack, Siena, Marist, Saint Peter’s, and Quinnipiac all having strong seasons. They enter at 23-11 and 192nd in KenPom.

They run a slow offense as they are 319th in tempo and 341st in average possession length, but they put an emphasis on bringing their opponents along with them as they are 319th in opponent average possession length. Defense is the true driver as they are 53rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 106th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 47th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Gavin Doty is a dog, averaging 17.9 points, seven rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 46.3% overall and 33.3% from three-point. He’s dropped 31 points against Iona and in their loss to Indiana he finished with 16 points and six rebounds.

While I love a good underdog story, the Duke Blue Devils will be winning this one.

However, what will absolutely change this season is the number of upsets in the first weekend. Last year, there were a notable lack of upsets from mid-majors in the NCAA Tournament, sparking conversations around whether or not the idea of “Cinderella” is dead in March Madness. This year should prove that to not be the case.

As you fill out your bracket, it’s important to know who those lower seeds are that might be able to upset a higher seed. Let’s take a look at the five most likely matchups to produce an upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

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South Florida (11) vs Louisville (6)

The South Florida Bulls won the regular season title for the American and claimed the Tournament Championship spot as well, taking down Wichita State 70-55. They are 25-8 on the season and riding an eleven game winning streak as they head to the NCAA Tournament and sit at 47th in KenPom and 45th in the NET.

The Bulls are led by one of the best starting fives in all of college basketball. Their top three players include, Wes Enis who averages 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, while Izaiyah Nelson is averaging 15.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Joseph Pinion averages 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.1 steals.

As a team, they are 61st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 40th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 15th in tempo, 7th in offensive rebounding percentage, 47th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 25th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, and 27th in opponent steal percentage. They love the three-pointer as they are 93rd in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt, while they rely on ball movement as they are 47th in assist per field goal made.

Louisville is 23-10, 19th in KenPom, 19th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 25th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Ryan Conwell leads the team with 18.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals while Mikel Brown Jr. averages 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.2 steals.

Here’s what I love about the matchup. The Bulls are 25th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, in which the Cardinals at 9th in the country in two-point shooting percentage. Both teams love to run quick as Louisville is 62nd in tempo, and South Florida loves to maintain control of the ball. They are 27th in opponent steal percentage, 98th in non-steal turnover percentage, 85th in steal percentage. Louisville on the other hand is 147th in steal percentage, 156th in opponent steal percentage, and 180th in non-steal turnover percentage.

Where it could go wrong for South Florida is if they don’t block out well. Louisville is 95th in offensive rebounding percentage and they are 4th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. The Bulls are 248th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage and just 180th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. If the Cardinals start to rack up second-chance opportunities and pound South Florida from beyond the arc, it could get out of hand quickly.

A few weeks ago, we broke down why we thought that South Florida could be a Bracket Buster. Check it out below:

Utah State (9) vs Villanova (8)

While this isn’t a double-digit seed upset, it’s still a nine over an eight regardless. The Utah State Aggies are 28-6, 30th in KenPom, and 26th in the NET. They stumbled a little bit last in the regular season, losing three of their last five games, but they fired off in the Mountain West Tournament, drilling UNLV 80-60, Nevada 79-66, and San Diego State 73-62.

MJ Collins Jr and Mason Falslev are the two names to know. Collins Jr. is averaging 17.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 49.1% overall and 36.6% from beyond the arc. Falslev is averaging 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and two steals per game while shooting 52% overall and 41.1% from beyond the arc.

The Aggies are 28th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 45th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage, 108th in three-point shooting percentage, 11th in two-point shooting percentage, and 36th in assist to field goals made.

Villanova is 24-8, 33rd in KenPom, and 35th in the NET. They are 41st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 35th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They sit at 76th in effective field goal percentage, 70th in turnover percentage, 32nd in block percentage, and 24th in steal percentage.

Overall, these are two very evenly matched teams, thus the separation of just one seed. However, the metrics line up better for the Aggies across the board. Nova is 179th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 170th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, two areas where the Aggies thrive. Utah State is 331st in opponent average possession length, where as Villanova is 269th themselves, so Utah State is used to their style of play.

If Nova wants a chance to win this game, they are going to have to live and die by the three-pointer. They are 53rd in the nation in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt and 100th in three-point shooting percentage, where Utah State is just 178th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and just 236th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt. Essentially, the Aggies are open to letting teams shoot from deep and aren’t that great at defending the perimeter where as that’s how Villanova wins games. I’m not convinced that’s enough to overcome the other glaring holes that gives the advantage to Utah State.

High Point (12) vs Wisconsin (5)

Everyone loves a twelve-seed upset over a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and my pick this season is the High Point Panthers over Wisconsin. The Panthers are 30-4 on the season, riding a 14 game winning streak. They are 92nd in KenPom and 76th in the NET.

Terry Anderson, Rob Martin, and Camron Fletcher are the three names that you should familiarize yourselves with. Anderson is averaging 16 points, six rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 56.4% overall. Martin is averaging 15.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 42.2% overall. Fletcher is averaging 12.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals while shooting 54.8% overall and 36.4% from beyond the arc.

As a team, they are 66th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 161st in defensive adjusted efficiency. They love a quick offense as they are 49th in tempo and 24th in average possession length. They are 48th in effective field goal percentage, 5th in turnover percentage, 5th in opponent turnover percentage, 156th in three-point shooting percentage, 32nd in two-points shooting percentage, and 4th in steal percentage. Their overall defensive stance is a bit skewed as they are still 64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 2nd in opponent steal percentage, 89th in opponent blocking percentage, and 175th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Wisconsin is 24-10, 22nd in KenPom, and 25th in the NET. They’ve been a bit up-and-down this season, but have huge wins over Michigan on the road, Illinois on the road, Michigan State at home, and Purdue on the road.

Why do I think this could be a reasonable upset? Wisconsin loves to shoot the three. They are 6th in the country in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt, 4th in three-point distribution (their total % of points), and 53rd in three-point shooting percentage. High Point does a strong job of defending the perimeter for an average defensive team. They are 64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 254th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt. On the defensive end, Wisconsin struggles with steals as they are just 288th in steal percentage compared to High Point sitting at 4th.

If Wisconsin wants to seal the deal, they need to limit High Point’s ability to get to the free throw line. The Badgers are 71st in opponent free throw attempt vs field goal attempt at 30.5, meanwhile the Panthers are 22nd in the country at 42.9. 22.5% of the Panthers points come from the free throws, which is 57th overall as Wisconsin sits at just 291st in opponent percentage of free throws at 17.8%.

This isn’t going to be a walk in the park for High Point, but if the Panthers can do all of the right things, this could be an electric Thursday matchup.

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Santa Clara (10) v Kentucky (7)

I was drooling when I saw this matchup revealed during Selection Sunday. The Broncos are 26-8 on the season, 35th in KenPom, and 40th in the NET. They have strong wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, Minnesota, and Saint Mary’s. They lost by just one point to Saint Louis, and had only one bad loss (a very bad one indeed) to Loyola Chicago.

Christian Hammond, Elijah Maji, and Allen Graves lead the Broncos. Hammond averages 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 49% overall and 40% from beyond the arc. Mahi is averaging 13.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 44.8% overall and 33.6% from three-point. Graves is averaging 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and two steals while shooting 51.7% overall and 41.6% from deep.

Santa Clara is 23rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 82nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, 54th in effective field goal percentage, 130th in three-point shooting percentage 39th in two-point shooting percentage, and 19th in offensive rebounding percentage. On the defensive end, they are 22nd in opponent turnover percentage, 117th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 133th in opponent block percentage, and 17th in opponent steal percentage.

Kentucky is 21-13, 28th in KenPom, and 28th in the NET. They finished just 2-5 in their final seven games of the regular season, but did pick up two wins over a struggling LSU squad 87-82 and Missouri 78-72 who also snuck their way into the NCAA Tournament before falling to Florida 71-63. Overall, they’ve been very underwhelming comparatively to how hyped up they were coming into the season with their roster construction and NIL budget.

Up-and-down their offensive statistics, Santa Clara has the advantage as Kentucky is 102nd in effective field goal percentage, 167th in three-point shooting percentage, 80th in two-point shooting percentage, and 75th in offensive rebounding percentage. They do hold an advantage on the defensive end a bit, however, the Broncos have a significant advantage over the Wildcats in turnovers. Kentucky is just 229th in opponent turnover percentage, compared to Santa Clara’s 22nd in the same metric.

This is going to be a very popular pick, and it should be. I will say, Santa Clara failed to beat Gonzaga in their three appearances, losing 89-77, 94-86, and 79-68. However, Kentucky is not Gonzaga, and if you just on the surface compare that Kentucky is the same-seed as Saint Mary’s who Santa Clara won the season series 2-1 against then you can help subside those concerns if you have any.

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Saint Louis (9) vs Georgia (8)

It looked like Saint Louis was well on their way to not being in the “potential upset” category as they were 24-1 on the season with just a one point loss against Stanford on a game winning shot. However, the Billikens struggled over the final few weeks, dropping games to Rhode Island, Dayton, George Mason, and Dayton again in the A-10 Tournament. They enter March Madness 28-5, 41st in KenPom, and 30th in the NET.

Robbie Avila is the star of the show, averaging 12.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists while shooting 50.6% overall and 41.6% from three-point. Trey Green and Dion Brown are both right behind Avila. Green is averaging 11.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 47.2% overall and 45.7% from three-point. Brown is averaging 11.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 60.6% overall and 40.4% from beyond the arc.

SLU is 51st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 42nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, while sitting at 21st in tempo and 4th in average possession length. They are 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage and just as good on the other end at 2nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. They are 2nd in three-point shooting percentage, 15th in two-point shooting percentage, 8th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 5th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Georgia is 22-10, 32nd in KenPom, and 33rd in the NET. Things looked bleak for the Bulldogs, going just 1-5 over six games in between January and February, but they rebounded to finished 4-1 in the regular season with wins over Kentucky, Texas, and Alabama. They ended up falling to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament who went on a run to the SEC Semifinals.

Saint Louis dominates the majority of the metrics, as Georgia is just 170th in three-point shooting percentage, 169th in opponent three-point shooting percentage 28th in two-point shooting percentage, and 99th in opponent two-points shooting percentage. However, they are much better are creating/limiting turnovers and getting second chance opportunities. They are 48th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to Saint Louis at 161st. Georgia is 5th in non-steal turnover percentage, and SLU is just 173rd.

However, this is probably going to be the most popular 9>8 seed pick in the tournament. Saint Louis’ award if they beat Georgia? Most likely a date with Michigan…brutal.

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With Paulius Murauskas, Mikey Lewis, and Joshua Dent, this Gaels team is deep and loaded with elite talent. They are well balanced on both the offensive and defensive end with a focus on taking efficient shots.

With Selection Sunday upon us and the bracket being revealed in a mere few hours, we are breaking down the metrics and key players behind this strong Gaels team:

👉 Check out our full breakdown below on why I think that the Saint Mary’s Gaels could potentially return to the Sweet 16.

On a night filled with emotion from former alumni, NBA Champion Speedy Claxton, the Pride took down Monmouth 75-69 to clinch the CAA Championship and their own opportunity to show the world what they can do on the big stage.

This isn’t just a fun story. This is a legitimate, strong Mid-Major that has the potential to be a Bracket Buster next week.

Today, we are breaking down why this team’s metrics speaks for themselves and who are the key players that you need to know when filling out your brackets.

👉 Check out our full breakdown below on why I think that the Hofstra Pride could be a potential Bracket Buster that you need to pick when filling out your bracket.