Bracket Busters

Bill Armstrong Isn't Slowing Down: McNeese's Transfer Portal Moves for 2026-2027

Elliott Crow — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 17:02:10 GMT

If you have followed college basketball over the last three years, even just casually, then you probably are familiar with the face that the McNeese Cowboys are one of the hottest programs outside of the traditional power conference ranks. The Cowboys have reached the NCAA Tournament three years in a row, won a game in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and have amassed a ridiculous 86-17 record overall while going 55-5 in the Southland.

While Will Wade left, Bill Armstrong is doing just as good of a job as they finished 28-6 overall and 19-3 last season while the Southland as a whole continues to up their standards. In 2023, the Southland was ranked 30th overall per KenPom ahead of just the SWAC, NEC, and the two independent teams that year (Chicago State and Hartford). In 2026, the conference finished 18th overall and with the growth from Stephen F. Austin and others like Lamar who I think will be solid next year, the conference is going to continue to improve.

As a result, Coach Armstrong had to make some splashes in the transfer portal and he has done just that. While retaining Larry Johnson who came off a stellar freshman campaign, Armstrong has added six transfers from power conference programs that are looking for an opportunity to break out. Let’s dive into these additions!

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Dellquan Warren

Photo: Mississippi State Athletics

Coming out of Keystone Athletic Academy in Erie, Pennsylvania, the 6’2 guard was listed as a three-star recruit. He chose Mississippi State other many other power conference schools like Penn State, Florida State, St. John’s, Alabama, and many more.

Over his last two seasons with the Bulldogs, he didn’t see the floor a ton. He appeared in 45 games, averaging 6.7 minutes per game and a shade under one point per game. His best game of his career so far came against LSU his freshman season when he played 15 minutes, scored five points with four assists, one rebound, one steal, and just one turnover.

He’s a raw point guard that is going to have an opportunity to find his footing alongside standout Larry Johnson who will enter his sophomore season.

Elijah Moore

Photo: Syracuse Athletics

Moore spend last season at Utah where he appeared in just one game, but he had a strong freshman showing at Syracuse the year prior. The former four-star recruit averaged 5.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, and one assist per game while shooting 39.1% overall and 31.5% from beyond the arc.

Looking at his metrics, he feature a 9.1% defensive rebounding percentage, 11.5 assist rate, and a 98.2 offensive rating. He shot well from inside the arc at 48.3% on 60 attempts. He did nearly wash-out his assist rate with 0.8 turnovers per game, but that can definitely be adjusted when given a higher role with opportunity.

McNeese is become a home for power conference players looking for their big break and I have no doubt that Moore will become another example of this for the Cowboys next season.

Christian Nitu

Photo: Florida State Athletics

Nitu spent last season with the Washington Huskies, but he didn’t appear on the court. The original three-star recruit played his freshman season at Florida State where he averaged 1.9 points and 1.3 rebounds while shooting 40.9% from the floor.

The 6’11 big man had is best game of the season in their final game against Virginia that season when he played 18 minutes, finishing 4-4 with 8 points, three rebounds, and one steal. His metrics are raw because of minimal playing time, but regardless he finished with an 8.5 offensive rebounding percentage and a 12.6% defensive rebounding percentage with a 3.9% block percentage.

One area that the Cowboys lacked a bit last season was height in the paint and Nitu is one of three incoming big men to address that gap.

Alier Maluk

Photo: Florida State Athletics

We have another big man coming into McNeese with Florida State ties. Maluk has spent his first two seasons with the Seminoles where he appeared in 53 games, starting five, while averaging 2.2 points and 1.9 rebounds per game. His playing time decreased a bit last season as he went from eleven minutes per game to just 6.2, but similar to others here, he has raw potential.

Coming out of Long Island Lutheran, he was listed as a three-star recruit and committed to Florida State over Maryland, Vanderbilt, Oregon, and many other power conference programs.

Despite the decrease in playing time, his metrics rose in his sophomore season and several positive areas. He finished with a 13% offensive rebounding percentage and a 15.8% defensive rebounding percentage. On defense, he featured a 6.8% blocking percentage and a 2% steal percentage.

Like the rest of the players on this list, Maluk has experience at the highest level and is looking for a change to earn playing time for a highly respected McNeese squad this coming season.

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Corey Chest

Chest is a 6’8 forward that was listed as a top-100 recruit and four-star recruit entering his freshman season out of the Link Academy. He started off at LSU where he averaged 6.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game while starting in 19 of the 26 games he appeared in. He was efficient on the court as well offensively, shooting 60.7% overall.

He transferred to Ole Miss last season and saw he minutes drop from 20 per game to just 13 per game. He appeared in 34 games, starting in four, while averaging 2.6 points and 3.8 rebounds.

Looking at his metrics, his freshman season was outstanding. He was 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 14%, 133rd in defensive rebounding percentage at 21.8%, and 110th in blocking percentage at 6.2%. His 60.7% shooting percentage from inside the arc was 207th in the nation as well that season. At Ole Miss, even with the minute drops, his metrics still shined in the same categories.

Chest is looking for his true breakout moment and showing signs of that his freshman year at LSU. I firmly believe that he’ll be one of the most important cogs for the Cowboys’ success next season and you need to have him on your radar for a potential star.

Jaylon Dean-Vines

Dean-Vines spent his freshman year with Vanderbilt this past season where he saw sparse playing time. Coming out of high school, he was a three-star recruit from Dallas who chose Vandy over Oklahoma, Washington, Tulsa, and UT Arlington.

He appeared in ten games this season, averaging 0.9 points, 0.4 rebounds, and 0.2 assists while shooting 4-5 overall and 1-2 from three-point. I actually caught his best game against Lipscomb in the four minutes he was on the court. He shot 2-2 to finish with four points, two rebounds, and one steal. He has some true potential, but he’s going to need development and opportunities, which McNeese is going to be able to give him.

At 6’4, he should have the chance to earn solid minutes as a potential combo guard for the Cowboys next year.

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High Point Reloads: Breaking Down Every Transfer Portal Addition So Far

Elliott Crow — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:02:13 GMT

It’s been no secret that the High Point Panthers are rolling in the era of NIL and the transfer portal. The Panthers are much more well positioned than the common mid-major, especially in the Big South. Over the last three seasons, the Panthers have finished 27-9 (13-3), 29-6 (14-2, and 31-5 (15-1) including back-to-back NCAA Tournament Appearances as a 13 and 12 seed.

Just last month, the Panthers made a huge splash as they not just made their second NCAA Tournament appearance in a row and in school history, they took down Wisconsin 83-82 in the Round of 64 to pick up their first NCAA Tournament win. They ultimately fell to Arkansas in the Round of 32, but they didn’t go down without a fight as they lost 84-88.

Now with the current transfer portal the question was going to be, how will their fare? Usually, if a team that’s outside the traditional power conference ranks and they have this amount of success, they are left with nearly zero players. However, among their big three players from last year, Rob Martin has been the only one to hit the portal. Martin averaged 16 points, two rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 steals. They lost Terry Anderson due to eligibility. However, they have retained Cam’Ron Fletcher who averaged 13.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 54.4% overall and 36.2% from beyond the arc.

With Martin and others returning, the Panthers have made a huge splash in the transfer portal. Let’s see who they’ve secured so far for the 2026-2027 season.

Photo: High Point Athletics

Portal Additions

CJ Brown (South Florida)

Photo: South Florida Athletics

The 6’2 guard, CJ Brown, spent his last two seasons with the South Florida Bulls where he has emerged as a true leader on the court. Last season, he averaged 10.9 points with 3.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and one steal per game on average. He shot just 38.1% overall, down from 45.5% his freshman season. He’s not a legitimate three-point shooting threat either as he’s just a 24.7% career shooting on 1.5 attempts per game. However, he does a tremendous job at getting to the free throw line. He drew on average 5.1 fouls per game and featured a 54.9 free throw rate which was 128th in the nation.

He shines as a playmaker. He finished the season with a 29.7 assist rate which was the 95th best in the country. He turned the ball over just two times per game on average, and he had some strong stat lines. Against Oklahoma State, he finished with 24 points and ten assists, and he had seven assists or more in eight games.

Brown is a true floor general, and I anticipate that he will thrive in the Big South.

Jason Rivera-Torres (Monmouth)

Jason Rivera-Torres as had a wild ride in college basketball. He started his career off at Vanderbilt where he averaged 6.4 points and 3.1 rebounds as a freshman. He then transferred to San Francisco where he averaged just 7.9 minutes per game. Last season, he transferred to Monmouth where he was able to take off.

The 6’7 junior averaged 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 40.2% overall and 31.5% from beyond the arc. He featured a 24.6% possession usage, 8.3% offensive rebounding percentage, 17.9% defensive rebounding percentage, 3.5% block percentage, and a 3.3% steal per game. He’s also strong at getting to the free throw line as he draws 4.5 fouls per game, giving him 162 opportunities at the line where he shot 80.2%.

Having Fletcher and Rivera-Torres together, with CJ Brown leading the way…this team is going to be tough.

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Isaac Garrett (Oakland)

Photo: Oakland Athletics

Isaac Garrett transferred into Oakland after playing at Snow College (JUCO) and he took no time adjusting to playing in division one. The 6’8 junior averaged 13.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, one block, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 53.7% overall from the floor.

Looking at his metrics, he was electric. He featured a 54.3% effective field goal percentage, 59.1% true shooting percentage which was 299th overall, a 9.4% offensive rebounding percentage, an 18.1% defensive rebounding percentage, a 3.6% block percentage, and an 80.2% free throw shooting percentage on 106 attempts per game.

Wondering what he can do against top schools? Against No. 1 Houston, he had 20 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks. Against No. 1 Michigan, he had 20 points as well. In the Horizon League, he went on to dominate on the glass. His metrics jumped to a 118.3 offensive rating, and he finished in the top 10 of several categories.

The Panthers are going to be a force at the 4 & 5 next season.

Frankquon Sherman (Kennesaw State)

Photo: Kennesaw State Athletics

Frankquon Sherman is another 6’7 forward, bringing up the total so far to two 6’7 forwards and another at 6’8. The junior has spent his last three seasons with the Kennesaw State Owls where he has turned himself into a reliable player. Last season, he averaged 10.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and one assist, while shooting 46.8% overall. In particular, he is a monster on the offensive glass as he averaged 3.3 per game.

He finished the season with a 120.2 offensive rating, which was 346th overall, a 13.7% offensive rebounding percentage which was 61st, a 22.2% defensive rebounding percentage at 80th, and a 3.2% block percentage. Similar to High Point’s other additions, he does a solid job at getting to the free throw line as he finished with a 57.2 free throw rate, converting 74.1% of his attempts.

It is very clear that Flynn Clayman’s plan in the portal was to add players that are strong on the glass as all three of Sherman, Garrett, and Rivera-Torres are forces. CJ Brown will help replace Rob Martin at the point guard position, and keep in mind…it’s just April 20th, so there is time for more work to be done. The Panthers made a splash last season and yes, they are operating with funds that most traditional teams in Mid-Major conferences have to play with. There’s no doubt that they’ll be rolling again next season.

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Beating the Portal: Mid-Major Programs Retaining Key Players for 2026-2027

Elliott Crow — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:01:20 GMT

There is no doubt that the transfer portal is highly active this year. With over 2,000 entries, we’ve approached an asinine level of movement throughout the college basketball world. However, there are a few shining bright spots that remind us, some players are deciding to stay loyal.

Rumors around what players are asking in the portal in terms of payment is shocking a lot of people, including myself. Allegedly, there are players who averaged 6-7 points per game as a freshman on a power conference roster that are asking for upwards of $5m. You can imagine when I first read that, my jaw was on the floor. However, without truly being connected into the sources myself, maybe don’t read too much into that. Regardless, players expectations are skyrocketing.

This makes it tougher to compete as a mid-major in college basketball as you are not just fighting to gather resources to be able to fund your program, you are now dealing with agents and other third-parties that are overstating the value of players monetarily so they can get a larger slice of the pie. That doesn’t even factor in if you are a mid-major with football because you are then fighting for just a slice of the resources your university and alumni are willing to give.

Despite all of these factors going against mid-major programs, we’ve had some incredible stories developing over the last couple of weeks. Some players, key players to be exact, are sticking to their oaths and staying with their coaches to build something at their programs. We aren’t just talking about programs like Utah State who have significantly more resources than the average team. Programs like UIC, Vermont, Valparaiso, Evansville, Austin Peay, Illinois State, and many more have been able to retain at least one of their key players for next season despite the fact there is no doubt they would have made more money else where.

Let’s dive into who’s sticking with their team for next season.

McNeese

Photo: McNeese Athletics

There might not be another mid-major program that’s rolling quite like McNeese. With three NCAA Tournament appearances in a row, despite a new head coach, the Cowboys are also rolling in the NIL resources. The word on the street is, they doubled what they already had, which if true…is incredible.

The star of the show last season was Larry Johnson. The 6’4 freshman guard is a prolific slasher and offensive weapon. He averaged 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 49.2% overall. He’s not a three-point threat at just 23.8%, but he showed some glimpses of what could be an area for him to grow into.

Johnson finished the season with a 30.5% possession usage which was 43rd overall and a 33.3% shot percentage which was 16th in the nation. He also featured an 18% defensive rebounding percentage, a 8.6% turnover rate which was 82nd best, and he drew 5.9 fouls per game which was 97th overall.

Initially, Johnson entered the transfer portal where he surely would’ve made millions from a power conference program. However, it was announced that he ultimately withdrew and will be returning to the Cowboys next season. Coupled with additional transfers coming in, McNeese is going to be looking like a dangerous team once again next season.

Austin Peay

Photo: Austin Peay Athletics

Austin Peay put together a strong season, finishing 22-9 and 15-3 in the Atlantic Sun before falling to Queens in the conference tournament. The Governors are now returning two of their key players in Zyree Collins & Rashaud Marshall as they aim to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament next season.

Collins put up incredible metrics in his freshmen season. He finished with a 26.4 assist rate which was 164th best in the country and a 4.1 steal percentage which was 30th overall. He averaged 13.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.1 steals per game while shooting 43.1% overall from the floor and 31.3% from beyond the arc. He put up some incredible games like 16 points with 14 assists against Bellarmine and racking up seven steals against North Florida.

Rashaud Marshall finished the season in the top percentile of offensive players with a 130.2 offensive rating which was 55th overall. He was 24th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in true shooting percentage, and 87th in two-point shooting percentage. He averaged 16.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 65.5% overall from the floor.

With two of their most talented players coming back, the Governors are already positioning themselves for success in the 2026-2027 season after putting together a strong campaign this year.

Vermont

Photo: Vermont Athletics

The Vermont Catamounts started the season just 5-5 with some close losses to Buffalo, Liberty, and Yale, but they rebounded to finish the season 22-12 overall and 12-4 in the America East. They ultimately fell to UMBC in the conference tournament, so there is no doubt that John Becker is going to be looking to build up the Catamounts to make a run next season.

A large piece of their success this season was led by Gus Yalden. Yalden is a 6’9 incoming junior that averaged 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 50.7% overall from the floor and 34.7% from beyond the arc on 3.8 attempts per game. He started his career at Seton Hall where he appeared in 26 games and averaged 8.4 minutes.

Yalden finished the season 11th in possession usage while taking 34.5% of the team’s shots which was the 8th best in the nation. His 56.1% effective field goal percentage was 297th overall and he featured a 10.1% offensive rebounding percentage, a 17.7% defensive rebounding percentage, and a 21 assist rate. Needless to say, Yalden was phenomenal for Vermont.

Entering the offseason, mid-major fans have come to expect that players like this will ultimately leave to go to a high-major or a power conference program where they’ll be paid handsomely. However, Yalden shocked the college basketball world while posting a thoughtful video. In it, he mentioned that “the grass isn’t always greener” while stating…”he’s back”. Could he have made significant money elsewhere? Absolutely. However, he’s sticking with Coach Becker and the Catamounts as they’ll look to return to glory in the 2026-2027 season.

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Missouri Valley

Photo: Valpo Athletics

The Missouri Valley as a whole is doing a great job of retaining talent. I’ll state the fact that if you are a Bradley fan reading this…I’m sorry.

Illinois State announced that both Johnny Kinziger and Chase Walker would both be returning to the Redbirds next season. Walker averaged 13.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 54.5% overall and 29% from three-point. Kinziger averaged 11.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 40% overall and 33% from three-point.

The Redbirds went on a run to the NIT Semifinals and while they ultimately lost Ty’Reek Coleman to the portal, retaining their top two players in both Walker and Kinziger is going to position them well to be one of the top favorites in the Missouri Valley entering next season.

The UIC Flames fired off a series of posts announcing that players would be returning including the following: Mekhi Lowery, Rashund Washington Jr., Jayce Nathaniel, Andy Johnson, and Ahmad Henderson II. While they lost their leading scorer Elijah Crawford, they returning their next four top offensive pieces. Just as a friendly reminder, the Flames went on a run in Arch Madness to reach the Championship where they fell to Northern Iowa.

Lowery averaged 8.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.4 steals. Washington Jr. averaged 8.7 points and five rebounds. Johnson averaged 11.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Henderson II averaged 12 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Nathaniel averaged 6.2 points and 4.5 rebounds.

Similar to UIC, Valparaiso also released several “I’m Back” graphics to announce the return of some key players. The full list includes: Justus McNair, JT Pettigrew, Rakim Chaney, Sader Servilus, and Carter Hopoi. The Beacons showed a lot of improvement this season and Roger Powell has now been able to retain some of their key players to build up for next sesaon where they are most likely going to be a threat in the Missouri Valley.

McNair averaged 7.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, and one assist. Chaney averaged 10.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.4 steals. Pettigrew averaged 12.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. Servilus averaged 2.6 points and 2.6 rebounds. Hopoi averaged 3.8 points and 1.8 assists.

Evansville had a rough season, but one of their bright spots came from AJ Casey. Casey previously played on the Miami Hurricanes squad that went to the Final Four and he’s battled injuries throughout his career. He had his first full opportunity last year and he took advantage. He averaged 13.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, two assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 51.1% overall and 33.9% from beyond the arc. He continuously improved throughout the season and was a large reason why the Aces were able to compete in conference more strongly over the last month or so of the season. Many assumed that he’d hit the portal, but instead he announced that he’ll be returning.

Freshman Bryce Quinet was another bright spot for the Aces as he averaged 8.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 40.9% overall and 30.3% from three-point. He showed a lot of promise as a freshman, including some strong performances in conference play against Bradley, SIU, and Valpo. Similarly, I figured he’d hit the portal, but he elected to return with Casey.

The Aces also retained redshirt freshman Aaron Gutman and freshman James Dyson-Merwe. They still have a long way to go to build a roster that can compete in the Missouri Valley, but being able to retain two strong players in both Casey and Quinet should at least spark some hope for Evansville fans.

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The Best Mid-Major Coaching Hires of the 2026 Carousel

Elliott Crow — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 17:02:46 GMT

The belief around many in college basketball was that this coaching carousel cycle would not be as hectic as last year’s, however, that has not been the case. We’ve seen 50 teams experience a change at the head coaching position and the season is just now coming to a close this evening. While it’s certainly slowed down, it doesn’t mean that there couldn’t be more action with the North Carolina job remaining open.

Some moves have been wild to say the least. Will Wade landed back at LSU, Randy Bennett left Saint Mary’s for Arizona State, Ben Jacobsen left Northern Iowa after 20 years for Utah State, Chris Mack is now at South Florida, John Groce moved to Charleston, and all of that is just scratching the surface.

Let’s recap which Mid-Majors have made the best moves and take a look at some interesting trends.

Top Moves

Kahil Fennell ~ Western Michigan

Photo: Western Michigan Athletics

The Western Michigan Broncos last reached the NCAA Tournament in 2014 when they finished 23-10, but they haven’t finished above .500 since the 2018-2019 season. After four straight seasons of less than ten wins, the Broncos moved on from Dwayne Stephens, while naming Kahil Fennell as their next head coach.

Fennell has spent the last two seasons at UT Rio Grande Valley where he finished 16-15 in the first season and 19-14 this year, while going 14-8 in the Southland. For reference, they have finished with 20 wins just twice since 2000 and above .500 just three times prior to Fennell taking over. Their 116th KenPom rating this season was the highest since joining the Division I ranks. This is not an easy job.

This season, they were even across the board as they sat at 136th in Offensive Adjusted Efficiency and 117th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They were 76th in two-point shooting percentage and 35th in three-point shooting percentage. On the defensive end, they finished 38th overall in defensive effective field goal percentage, 68th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point shooting percentage.

With Fennell’s ability to build a strong program at UT Rio Grande Valley, there is no doubt that he’s going to have a great opportunity to do the same thing in the MAC with plenty of other coaching changes in the conference.

Matt Majkrzak ~ Northern Illinois

Photo: Northern Illinois Athletics

The Northern Illinois Huskies have finished with an above .500 record just four times since it last reached the NCAA Tournament in 1996. Since, they’ve been through six head coaches before now adding their seventh in Matt Majkrzak. However, they’ve now added a proven winner to lead them into their new era as a part of the Horizon League starting next season.

Majkrzak has been the head coach of Division II Northern Michigan since 2019. During that span, he went 13-17, 8-8 (COVID Shortened season), and 18-12 before really kicking it into high gear. Over the last four seasons, he’s led the Wildcats to an NCAA Tournament birth each year as well as winning games in the tournament in two of those four seasons. He’s amassed a 136-78 record during his time at Northern Michigan.

We’ve seen several coaches come from the non-division one ranks and make an immediate impact, most notably Ben McCollum and Josh Schertz over the last couple of years. I personally love this hire for Northern Illinois because the Huskies have made it clear that football is more of a priority than basketball is. If they want to try to stay competitive and win at this level, they needed to hire someone that can simply win and Majkrzak is a great fit.

Jordan Fee ~ Lamar

Photo: Lamar Athletics

While Jordan Fee might not have a lengthy run as a head coach in other collegiate levels like Majkrzak, his resume speaks for itself. He’s been a part of the staff at West Liberty, Detroit Mercy, and Nova Southeastern which is one of the top Division II programs in the country between 2015-2023. Following 2023, he took over as head coach of Gannon where he went 32-3 and advanced to the Elite Eight in just one season. He joined FAU’s staff for the last two years, including as the associate head coach last season before taking over as Lamar’s head coach for the 2026-2027 season.

With McNeese and Stephen F. Austin both still on the rise, the Southland as a whole is a growing conference. Lamar, unlike other schools on this list, isn’t unfamiliar with success. They haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2012, however, they’ve had two 20 win seasons and have finished below .500 seven times during that stretch. It’s been wildly up-and-down as they have three seasons with four or less wins and one with just nine wins. A bit of a rollercoaster for the Cardinals.

I am happily overlooking the lack of experience of being a head coach because Fee is clearly a proven winner. What he did in one season at Gannon and what he has clearly learned at some of the other programs will absolutely translate at the Division I position. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do in year one.

Tobin Anderson ~ Tennessee Tech

Tobin Anderson is back in the head coaching seat! After a wild journey, Tennessee Tech will be his new home starting next season. Anderson led St. Thomas Aquinas to a 209-62 record over nine seasons at the helm, including four Sweet 16 appearances and a run to the elite eight in 2017.

After his successful experience at the Division II ranks, Fairleigh Dickinson picked him up ahead of the 2022-2023 season as he led the Knights to a 21-16 record in his first year on the job. After falling to Merrimack in the NEC Championship, FDU picked up the bid to the NCAA Tournament due to Merrimack’s ineligibility. Ultimately, the rest is history as they became just the second 16-seed in NCAA history to upset a #1 seed as they defeated Purdue in the first round.

Following the season, he landed at Iona, where he finished 16-17 & 16-16. After the second season, he was let go with plenty of controversy around the college basketball world, calling out Iona for this move. However, he didn’t have to wait long for another opportunity. He joined South Florida last season on the bench, and now he’ll have a tall task in trying to right the ship of Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles haven’t finished with more than 19 wins since the 2001-2002 season when they ended at 27-7, but missed the NCAA Tournament.

It won’t be an easy task, but I love seeing Anderson getting the opportunity to build another small program upward.

Eric Haut ~ Tarleton State

Photo: Tarleton State Athletics

Eric Haut is a bit of an underrated hire in my opinion. He’s worked at Western Kentucky, Kent State, TCU, Northern Kentucky, and most recently he’s been the associate head coach under Jerrod Calhoun at Utah State for the last two years.

Billy Gillispie seemed to have things going the right way for Tarleton State after finishing 25-10 in their fourth year since transitioning to Division I in 2020, but things fell off. They went just 12-20 and 14-18 over the last two seasons as members of the WAC. With the new partnership with the Atlantic Sun to form the United Athletic Conference, Eric Haut will now have the opportunity to take what he’s learned at Utah State as one of the top programs outside the power conference ranks and build something special at Tarleton State.

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The State of Coaching

While there have been plenty of jumps to better jobs as higher levels, and there is no doubt that the leash has gotten shorter with the power on NIL, there is another trend that we are seeing emerge.

We’ve seen coaches on occasion leave their mid-major job to join a power conference staff as an associate head coach, but usually there are strings attached. For example, Alan Huss has taken over for Greg McDermott after leaving High Point to join Creighton as an associate head coach. However, that was the plan from the beginning and they never hid that fact.

Now, we’ve seen Rick Croy leave Cal Baptist after taking over as the head coach in 2013, leading them to a Division II Sweet 16 and Elite Eight appearance, while also taking them to the NCAA Tournament for the first time this season after transitioning to Division I in 2018. He’ll be joining former Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett at Arizona State as the associate head coach.

Just in the last few days, Campbell’s former head coach John Andrzejek resigned to take the associate head coaching position at Louisville. In a public statement, he essentially called out the administration saying that their commitments had changed as they would not be able to fund a competitive team on the court. Rather than try to fight through with a lack of resources, he decided to step away and join Pat Kelsey.

This isn’t just happening in Men’s Basketball either, as Evansville’s Women’s Head Coach Robyn Scherr stepped away from coaching all together due to the changing landscape.

It begs the question, will we see coaches that become long-term figure heads for their programs for 10, 15, 20+ years? If the transfer portal doesn’t change, it’ll be harder and harder for coaches to not burn themselves out. Especially for the smaller programs that view college basketball as more of an additional revenue stream, rather than the university’s main focus in athletics.

What do you think? How will the coaching landscape continue to change?

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Cinderella Isn't Dead Yet, But She's on Life Support

Elliott Crow — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 17:02:35 GMT

We are headed into the Sweet 16 this week, with just one double-digit seeded team left in the 2026 NCAA Tournament in the Texas Longhorns. While some are touting this as proof that Cinderella isn’t dead, but Texas has reached the Final Four three times, Elite Eight eight times, Sweet 16 twelve times, and the NCAA tournament every year since 2010 except for 2013, 2017, and 2019 (exempting 2020). Sorry folks, per Gerry Hamilton of OnTexasFootball, the Longhorns had $5m in NIL (which I will say is low for the SEC), this isn’t a Cinderella story.

Thursday gave us some real hope. Miami won the night prior against SMU in an incredible offensive showing, then Siena was up by 11 on Duke at halftime, Howard was within four of Michigan at the half, McNeese gave Vanderbilt a run, Kennesaw State kept up with Gonzaga, High Point took down Wisconsin, South Florida had a real shot at Louisville but opened up too sluggish, VCU beat North Carolina in an epic overtime game, and Saint Louis destroyed Georgia. It got bleak on Friday as no upsets were produced, though technically Utah State was as a nine seed over an eight seed as they beat Villanova, but the Aggies were favored coming into that one. In what could have been no doubt proof that mid-majors could still win in March turned into a repeat of last season.

With the Round of 32 ending, High Point went toe-to-toe with Arkansas, but fell just short at the end. VCU was dominated by Illinois. Saint Louis played great for the first 30 minutes before Michigan decided to remind us why they are a National Championship contender. Utah State gave Arizona a run for their money, but couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole they dug early in the second half.

One thing to look at too is, among the teams that did advance to the Round of 32 here’s their estimated NIL:

Utah State: Over $2.4m
Saint Louis: Over $3m based on conversations I’ve had. For comparison, I’m come to learn that the estimated NIL Package for next season to keep Schertz is over $7m.
High Point: Well over $2m
VCU: Between $3m-$5m

Trilly Donovan, known reliable college basketball insider, shared on Twitter that all four teams from the non-power conference ranks had around or over $3m, so all of this data ties out to be roughly around correct marks.

What this means is, even for traditional non-power conference teams, you are going to have to shell out some significant cash to get even close to being able to maintain competitiveness. Now the reality is, yes, there is always going to be a sneaky upset…I mean look at what Siena nearly did. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the traditional mid-majors that aren’t funded by a massive alumni base to compete at the same level as those above them.

Now, with a second lackluster NCAA Tournament in a row from the mid-major perspective, we are seeing a lot of discourse online regarding whether or not “Cinderella is dead”. Can we ever see a Loyola Chicago go to the Final Four again? Can we see Saint Peter’s make a run to the Elite Eight? Before I dive in, I’ll just give my opinion now in case you want to stop reading: while I believe this Cinderella is not fully dead, I believe it’s on life support. Let’s talk about why.

Photo: VCU Athletics

Has NIL Killed Cinderella?

I actually do not blame NIL. College sports have been at a crossroads for a long-time leading up to the ability to make money as a collegiate athlete. Yes, the players would receive free tuition, free travel, benefits on intangibles compared to the average collegiate student, etc. However, their coaches were making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, while players at programs like Kentucky were really taken advantage of given the program was raking in insane amounts of money thanks to 15 kids not seeing a dime of that (now yes, many go on to the NBA or overseas, but you get my point).

The issue is the transfer portal. If you are more than a casual college basketball fan, you are probably tired of hearing this same thing over-and-over again, but the portal is a disaster. It’s a disaster for programs, for players, for coaches, for fans, for everyone in reality. There are no rules, and there are a TON of bad influences on these young, easily misguided players. You can have self-proclaimed agents with no legal or previous agent experience convincing kids to sign over 20-30% or more in commissions in hope of securing the largest contract physically possible, regardless of whether or not that’s in the best interest of the player. Look, it’s nothing for Kentucky to shell out a million to the 10th best player on a roster, but if you could have taken $500,000 from an A-10 school and truly developed, you would increase your potential earnings and potential future professional stock more by going down and making strong money while seeing the floor compared to playing eight minutes in garbage time. However, if you’ve signed to an agent…why on earth would that agent not want you to go to Kentucky so they can cut that larger check?

The reality here is, college athletics open up even more opportunities for these agents. Every year, there is going to be a new pool of hundreds and thousands of athletes that all want the same thing so they could care less if you never go pro because they have another pool of potential players lined up once you’ve run out of eligibility.

I want to flip this script for a second here, having agents is not a bad thing. In many cases, it’s good to have one because otherwise you could be left hung out to dry if you don’t fully understand the contract you are signing. In cases of the top players, you should absolutely have one because if you have a chance of going pro, you need to build a trustworthy relationship as soon as possible. The issue I have is with the fake agents, or in some cases bad inner circles of influences around these players.

With all of these factors combined, we are left with a continuous cycle of players jumping to different teams every year, no continuity, and yet the fans are expected to pay their alma maters or just favorite programs money to build a new roster every season. For what? There is no return on investment other than pleasure for people that are investing in NIL from a fan perspective. If you happened to hit it big and have a plethora of cash to spend? Sure, do what you want. I’d do the same thing for my alma mater if I were in that position.

Until the transfer portal is corrected, the idea of having mid-major Cinderella teams make a return to the big dance is going to diminish with the exception of those handful of programs out there that happen to have some wealthy donors that are satisfied with donation cash with no real ROI.

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What should we do?

The sad truth is, that really there’s nothing that we can do. The answer, in my opinion at least, relies on the idea of contracts for players. I’m by no means against players making money as coaches make millions and programs rake in millions for the top programs. However, if we are going to treat the NCAA as the professional league it is, there needs to be contractual rules in place. Let’s break down an example:

Player: Freshman 3-star recruit that played at Furman
The player signs a two-year contract for $150,000, with a buy-out clause at 50% the value of the total contract.
During his freshman season, he averaged 14 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds
Following his freshman season, his agent receives a call from New Mexico offering 2-years $300,000.

In this example, the player has to make the decision on whether or not to bet on himself. After a successful season at Furman, do you want to risk going to New Mexico for $300,000, but forfeiting $75,000 immediately? Are you going to get minutes, or are you going to ride the bench as the 10th or 11th man? Do you want to play or do you want to get paid?

Now, this example works in two different scenarios. You can imagine that if it’s not the player paying a fee, it’s New Mexico paying the buyout fee. This happens all the time across independent leagues. In many cases, if an MLB team finds a hidden gem out of the Frontier league, they have to pay an additional fee to buy out that players contract. In fact, that’s how the tiny independent teams stay afloat for some teams.

This won’t fix everything, but this would certainly make it a more fair fight for the underdogs in college basketball. If you lose a player, you will at the very least not lose them for free. You’ll gain some value that you can turnaround and spend on their replacement. You are then investing in the development of those players because either you keep them and they turn into seasoned, star players or they transfer and you collect revenue that you can spend on other players.

I’ll end this by saying, this was a very disappointing NCAA Tournament. For what opened with so much promise, we are left with nothing except for the top of the top all fighting. Will that be good for ratings? Sure. Is that good for the overall health of the NCAA? I’d argue no. Look at other leagues that had the same teams over-and-over again in the Championships or Conference Finals/Championships. The ratings and/or super fan support eventually fall off because the some fans gets tired of seeing the same teams every year.

We can only hope that some force comes together to save the sport that we love because right now, it’s hard to stay optimistic about what it’s going to look like in five years.

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2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Breakdown

Elliott Crow — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 21:01:51 GMT

So far we have covered the East, South, and West region, so it’s time to breakdown the Midwest region which is the most ripe with potential mid-major upsets. We have Akron taking on a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech squad. Santa Clara is going up against a disappointing Kentucky team. Hofstra is within reach now with the latest Alabama scandal.

Let’s dive into all of the mid-major matchups you need to know about in the Midwest region!

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Georgia (8) vs Saint Louis (9)

Photo: Saint Louis Athletics

Saint Louis was one of the best teams outside of the traditional power conferences this season. The Billikens started off 24-1 on the season and 12-0 in the A-10 while taking just a one point loss on a late shot to Stanford. They took a handful of losses late in the season to Rhode Island, Dayton, George Mason, and Dayton again in the conference tournament. However, finishing 28-5 is still a remarkable feat.

The Billikens are 41st in KenPom, 51st in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 43rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Led by players like Robbie Avila, Trey Green, Amari McCottry, and more…this is a team that could go deep. Head coach Josh Schertz will be hungry as well for his first NCAA Tournament win, especially after inking a lucrative deal to stay as the head coach with significant additional resources coming his way.

We covered this matchup in depth earlier this week in our Top 5 potential upsets post, which you can view here (or below)!

Texas Tech (5) vs Akron (12)

Photo: Akron Athletics

We have another 5-12 matchup that you should really be keeping an eye on. The Akron Zips were overshadowed by Miami this season in the MAC, but the Zips went 29-5 on the season and they sit at 64th in KenPom. their non-conference losses were to Purdue, Yale, and Murray State who was on fire in the first half of the season.

The Zips are 54th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 114th in defensive adjusted efficiency. John Groce runs a quick offense at 32nd in tempo and 31st in average possession length, so it’s not uncommon they score 90+. In fact, they’ve done that 17 times this season. They are 8th in effective field goal percentage, 14th in three-point shooting percentage, and 12th in two-point shooting percentage. Akron is about as good of a shooting team as you are going to find.

Tavari Johnson is the star of the show as he averages 20.1 points, three rebounds, five assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 51.2% overall and 37.3% from three-point. Johnson is 188th in offensive rating, 134th in possession usage, and 119th in true-shooting percentage. Amani Lyles is another name to know as he is averaging 14.6 points, eight rebounds, 2.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 55.7% overall and 37.5% from three-point. Lyles is 60th in effective field goal percentage and 55th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Texas Tech is 22-10 on the season and 20th overall in KenPom. They are a bit cold as of late, going just 3-4 over their last seven games. They are also without star JT Toppin who was averaging 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. They run a slower tempo at 245th overall, so quite different from the Zips.

For Texas Tech, they have to slow down Akron, however, they haven’t done a great job of bringing opponents to their speed. They are 119th in opponent average possession length. Without JT Toppin, they are going to be exposed more for a team that is just 357th in bench minutes on the season.

For Akron, they have an opportunity to become a true Bracket Buster. One that could not only take down Texas Tech, but potentially even make a run to the Sweet 16 if the stars align. They are one of the best offensive teams in the country with a plethora of scoring options, elite ball movement, and high basketball IQ.

Consider taking the Akron Zips as a fun upset.

Alabama (4) vs Hofstra (13)

Photo: Hofstra Athletics

Death. Taxes. Alabama basketball playing with some wild controversy. It was announced that Aden Holloway had been arrested earlier this week and barring any insane juking of the legal system, he’ll be absent from Bama’s game against Hofstra. Holloway averages 16.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists for the Crimson Tide, so this is a massive loss.

Hofstra is in position to take advantage. The Pride are 24-10 on the season coming into this game and they are about as well balanced as you can get. They rank 88th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 95th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how some of their key metrics shape up:

10th in opponent effective field goal percentage
51st in offensive rebounding percentage
29th in three-point shooting percentage
76th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
3rd in opponent two-point shooting percentage
27th in steal percentage

They run a slow scheme as they are 317th in tempo and just 334th in average possession length at over 19 seconds per possession. Over their last ten games, they are 32nd in defensive adjusted efficiency per BartTorvik as well. This is a slow, defensive minded team which is exactly the type that could pull off an upset in the NCAA Tournament.

Cruz Davis is a star for Hofstra. The 6’3 junior averages 20.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 44.3% overall and 39.9% from three-point. He’s dropped 30+ points four times this season, and less than ten points just three times.

Bama is a night-and-day difference in how they play. They are 3rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 67th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 4th in tempo, and 8th in average possession length. They rank 29th in three-point shooting percentage, but Holloway was their leading shooter at 43.8% from beyond the arc. Philon Jr. is the only other shooting over 40% at 40.2%. The next closes is Amari Allen at 36.5%.

The Pride are an elite defensive team from inside the paint, so couple that with Alabama losing their best three-point shooter…something could be brewing there. However, if Alabama can keep the game sped up, they’ll be able to handle Hofstra with ease. The key for the Pride is going to be to slow the pace of the game and make the Crimson Tide play to their style. Hofstra scores 37.4% of their points from outside, which is 41st in the nation, and Bama is just 156th in opponent three-point shooting. In fact, their opponents score 29.1% of their points from three-point which is 270th overall.

There are a lot of factors that are trending the right way for Hofstra, and it’s still very much an up-hull climb, but things are going to be VERY interesting in this game.

We recently posted a video breakdown the Hofstra Pride in depth, check it out below!

Miami Ohio (11) vs SMU (11)

Photo: Miami Athletics

They did it! The Miami RedHawks earned the at-large bid with a chance to make the field of 64 by playing SMU in Dayton as a part of the First Four. The two teams will matchup tonight as there’s no doubt this is one of the most talked about First Four games in a long time.

The RedHawks finished the perfect regular season, going 31-0, but fell to UMass in the MAC Conference Tournament, forcing the Selection Committee to do the right thing and give the MAC two-bids in the Big Dance. They rank 70th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 6th in effective field goal percentage, 40th in turnover percentage, 58th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt, 22nd in three-point shooting percentage, 2nd in two-point shooting percentage, 51st in block percentage, 89th in steal percentage, and 30th in non-steal turnover percentage.

Essentially, this is an elite offensive team. Their defensive metrics aren’t nearly as good, but they aren’t terrible as they sit at 157th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

SMU is entering Dayton ice cold. They’ve won just one of their last six games and just five games since January 24th. They are 42nd in KenPom and built a little similarly to Miami. They are 26th in offensive adjusted efficiency, but just 92st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Tempo-wise they are 115th compared to Miami at 44th.

The RedHawks have six players averaging 10+ points per game, with Peter Suder leading the charge. He’s averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, four assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 55.4% overall and 42.9% from beyond the arc. He is 119th in effective field goal percentage, 242nd in offensive rating, and 301st in assist rate.

The winner of this game will take on Tennessee in the Round of 64. The Volunteers are 22-11 and 16th in KenPom. They’ve had an up-and-down year with some strong wins over Houston, Louisville, Alabama, and Vanerbilt, but they also lost to Syracuse and pulled out some very close wins over borderline teams. They are 34th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 15th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They ended the season just 2-4 in their last six games, so whoever wins between Miami and SMU will have some momentum going their way.

Virginia (3) vs Wright State (14)

Photo: Wright State Athletics

The Wright State Raiders cruised through the traditionally unpredictable Horizon League this season, going 23-11 overall and 15-5 in conference. They rank 118th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 193rd in defensive adjusted efficiency.

Michael Cooper has been one of the most underrated freshman in the country for Wright State. The 6’3 guard is averaging 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 44.9% overall and 36.4% from three-point. He can be streaky, as any freshman can, but when he’s on he’s nearly impossible to stop.

As a team, they are 59th in effective field goal percentage, 88th in offensive rebounding percentage, 50th in three-point shooting percentage, 74th in two-point shooting percentage, and 90th in non-steal turnover percentage. They score a ton of points, but shockingly don’t run a super fast offense. The Raiders are just 192nd in tempo and 228th in average possession length at nearly 18 seconds per possession.

Virginia is 29-5 and 13th in KenPom. They sit at 27th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 16th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This isn’t the old Cavaliers that are scoring 50 points per game, but they still run a slower tempo under Ryan Odom as they are 270th in tempo and 149th in average possession length.

Wright State is going to have to shoot their way out of this matchup and with as good of a defense as Virginia has, it’s going to be very difficult.

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Kentucky (7) vs Santa Clara (10)

Photo: Santa Clara Athletics

The WCC was viewed as a three-bid league potentially coming into the season with Gonzaga & Saint Mary’s leading the charge, however, it was San Francisco that had a lot of eyes on them. Santa Clara started off hot at 6-0 with wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, and Minnesota with a one point loss to Saint Louis within the month of November. Things got quiet as they started off December just 1-3, but they rebounded well to lose just three more games the rest of the entire season. They are 26-8 on the season and 35th in KenPom.

They rank 23rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 82nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Their offense is the true driver, led by Christian Hammond who is averaging 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game as just a sophomore.

Kentucky on the other hand as been far too inconsistent through out the season for a team that came in with a lot of expectations. The Wildcats are 21-13 and 28th in KenPom. Over their final seven games of the season, they went just 2-5, scrapped by LSU in the SEC Tournament, and beat Missouri who snuck into the tournament just 78-72.

We covered this matchup in depth earlier this week in our Top 5 potential upsets post, which you can view here (or below)!

Iowa State (2) vs Tennessee State (15)

Photo: Tennessee State Athletics

Tennessee State has been an incredible story to follow throughout the season. Nolan Smith took over as head coach and has led the Tigers to a 23-9 record in year one. In the non-conference, they kept up with Belmont, Western Kentucky, and Tennessee in the first half before being blown out in the second half.

They rank 173rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 211th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They won’t blow you away, but they are 24th in opponent turnover percentage, 33rd in block percentage, 50th in offensive rebound percentage, and 12th in opponent steal percentage. They take great care of the ball.

Aaron Nkrumah & Travis Harper II are both phenomenal players. Nkrumah is averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists, and 2.8 steals while shooting 43.7% overall and 35.2% from three-point. He is 5th in the country in steal percentage and 163rd in possession usage. Harper II is averaging 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 47.6% overall and 40.1% from three-point. He is 164th in offensive rating, 103rd in true-shooting percentage, and 110th in three-point shooting.

Iowa State is a wagon. They rank 6th in KenPom and come into the game at 27-7 on the season. They are 21st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 4th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They’ve been a little bit up-and-down recently as they ended the season just 2-3 in their last five games, however…they are good enough to go to a Final Four or more.

Michigan (1) vs Howard (16)

Photo: Howard

The Howard Bison picked up their first NCAA Tournament win in program history over UMBC last night in the opening game of the 2026 tournament in Dayton as part of the First Four. They took down UMBC 86-83 as Ose Okojie poured in 23 points, while Bryce Harris had 19 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists.

The Bison are an incredibly defensive-minded team. They are 129th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 37th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 14th in opponent turnover percentage, 30th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 56th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, 21st in opponent steal percentage, and 25th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage.

They finished the season at 23-10 and are coming into this game at 24-10. However, Michigan is a National Championship contender, so unfortunately, Howard has a nearly impossible task.

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2026 NCAA Tournament West Region Breakdown

Elliott Crow — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 15:02:40 GMT

Last night’s opening round of the First Four and the NIT both did not disappoint in the least bit. Howard and UMBC went toe-to-toe till the final buzzer, including a very close heavy that would’ve sent the game to overtime as Howard picked up their first NCAA Tournament win in program history. Texas nearly blew the game against NC State as Tramon Mark hit the game winning shot with just one second remaining to send the Longhorns to the Round of 64.

Yesterday we covered the East and South Regions of the 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket and today, we’ll wrap up our breakdown of every Mid-Major game in the tournament! Let’s take a look at the West Region.

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Villanova (8) vs Utah State (9)

Photo: Utah State Athletics

It is to be expected that the eight and nine seeds are close to one another with their metrics, but Utah State and Villanova are an interesting matchup where the Aggies actually outpace the Wildcats in the majority of statistics besides being a position lower in their seeding.

Utah State enters at 28-6 on the season and 30th overall in KenPom. They started off 23-3 and 13-2 in the Mountain West before stumbling a bit to end the season on a 2-3 stretch over their last five games. They fell to Nevada and San Diego State on the road, as well as taking their second loss to UNLV. Once they reached the Mountain West Tournament, they rebounded well by passing UNLV, Nevada, and San Diego State to punch their picked to the Big Dance.

Utah State leads Villanova in nearly all of the key metrics, but this will be a close game and the Aggies should be favored for the small seed upset here. If they win, they’ll take on Arizona (unless Long Island pulls off the incredible upset) in the Round of 32.

You can view our full breakdown of this matchup here (or below!)

Wisconsin (5) vs High Point (12)

Photo: High Point Athletics

The Wisconsin Badgers have been an interesting team because they came into conference play lacking a true top non-conference win. They had beat Providence and Marquette, both of which struggled this season. However, they turned it on, taking down Michigan on the road to wake people up. They went on to finish 24-10 before falling to Michigan by just three points in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

High Point has been electric in year one with Flynn Clayman at the helm of head coach. The Panthers are 30-4 on the season and run a high-octane offense with players like Terry Anderson who is a Bracket Buster in the making. They rank 67th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and in the top-50 of several key categories.

We wrote about top potential upsets with the most intriguing games, including this one earlier this week. You can view our full breakdown of this matchup here (or below)!

Arkansas (4) vs Hawaii (13)

Photo: Hawaii Athletics

Oh boy, we have a juicy matchup between Hawaii and Arkansas. A lot of people have the Razorbacks going deep in the tournament because they’ve played very well this season. They are 26-8, 15th in KenPom and won the SEC Tournament by taking down Vanderbilt 86-75. They have wins over Louisville, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt twice, Missouri twice, Texas A&M, and Texas.

Hawaii has been a fun team to watch this season as well. They are 24-8, 108th in KenPom, and competed with both Oregon and Arizona State in the non-conference, losing to Oregon by one point and Arizona State by seven. The Rainbow Warriors run a unique “no help” defense which has resulted in some insane defensive statistics:

42nd in defensive adjusted efficiency
16th in opponent effective field goal percentage
10th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
28th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
22nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage
15th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt
3rd in opponent assist per field goals made

They run with eight players all averaging 20+ minutes per game, but Isaac Johnson leads the team on the offensive end. He averages 14.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 50.3% overall and 31.5% from three-point. He features a 29.5% possession usage which is 74th overall and he draws 6.2 fouls per game which is the 66th most in the country.

If Hawaii wants to try and pull this off, it’s going to all fall on their defense. Offensively, they are just 210th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and they are a liability from outside as they are just 300th in three-point shooting percentage. They are strong inside at 62nd in two-point shooting percentage, but the Razorbacks will certainly be blocking off the lanes. However, if Hawaii can pester them into foul trouble, the Rainbow Warriors are 29th in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts and they score 23.2% of their points from the line which is 38th in the country.

I’ll wrap up this matchup by saying the Coach Calipari is no stranger to falling to a fun mid-major in the NCAA Tournament. While Arkansas runs an incredible offensive system and yes…someone is going to have to guard Darius Acuff in the no help defense, however, if Hawaii can keep their defense strong on everyone else…they could have a chance.

Gonzaga (3) vs Kennesaw State (14)

Photo: Kennesaw State Athletics

After the national news of another illegal betting scandal took away one of the Kennesaw State Owls’ best players in Simeon Cottle earlier this season, there were a lot of question marks around how they would recover. They stayed the course, finishing 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the Conference USA. As they ended the conference tournament as the six-seed, they took down Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, and Louisiana Tech to claim the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

As a team, they sit at 140th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 192nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. They aren’t going to blow your minds, but they do the fundamentals well. They are 40th in offensive rebounding percentage and 24th in non-steal turnover percentage. They love to live at the free throw line as they are 7th in the country in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt and they score 23.7% of their points from the line which is 26th most in the country.

Sophomore RJ Johnson has taken over as the go-to offensive weapon in place of Cottle. He is averaging 14.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, four assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 45.7% overall and 36.8% from beyond the arc. He is 76th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage and 132nd in assist rate.

Gonzaga on the other hand is 10th in KenPom, 29th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 9th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 30-3 with losses to just Michigan, Saint Mary’s, and the random loss to Portland on the road. They are virtually in the top-25 or top-30 of all key metrics.

If the Owls want any chance to hand the Zags a huge upset loss in the first round, they are going to have to live at the free throw line. Fouling is the Zags one, true weakness as they are 281st in opponent free throw attempts vs field goal attempts. They sit at 215th in opponent free throw point distribution percentage. If the Owls can continuously get to the line while putting Gonzaga in foul trouble, they could make the game interesting.

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Purdue (2) vs Queens (15)

Photo: Queens Athletics

The Queens Royals punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament after taking down West Georgia, Austin Peay, and Central Arkansas in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. The ASUN was a blast to watch these season with a number of teams that took huge steps forward and Queens was one of those teams.

Offense drives their success as they rank 77th in the nation in offensive adjusted efficiency. They are 15th in effective field goal percentage, 54th in turnover percentage, 68th in three-point shooting percentage, and 32nd in non-steal percentage percentage. In fact, six players average 10+ points per game.

Nasir Mann leads the team while averaging 13.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 49.5% overall and 32.7% from three-point. He’s been hot of late as well as he is averaging 17.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.8 steals over his last six games.

Unfortunately for the Royals, Purdue runs the best offense in the country as the Boilermakers are 1st in offensive adjusted efficiency. The Royals on the other hand are 322nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. Unfortunately, those two things don’t line up well and the Boilermakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season as of late. This is going to be tough for Queens to keep up.

Arizona (1) vs Long Island (16)

Photo: Long Island Athletics

Fins up! The Long Island Sharks gave us some fun games this season. They nearly took down Mississippi State, gave Georgia a run, and beat some solid mid-majors in the non-conference. They finished the regular season 21-10 and 15-3 in the NEC, then held off a scrappy Chicago State squad, Wagner, and Mercyhurst in the Tournament Championship to head to the Big Dance.

They aren’t going to blow your mind in metrics, but they aren’t your average NEC team. They are 90th in effective field goal percentage, 51st in three-point shooting percentage, 72nd in blocking percentage, 62nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 14th in block percentage, and 44th in opponent steal percentage.

Jamal Fuller is the name to know as they 6’5 senior is averaging 16.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 blocks, and one steal per game while shooting 52.5% overall and 43.8% from beyond the arc. His 27.9% possession usage is 126th in the nation.

They are not going to take down Arizona, given the Wildcats are a legitimate National Championship contender, however, Long Island should give us the best gave from any of the 16 seeds (although Howard looked good last night). Enjoy the run Shark fans, Fins up!

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2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Breakdown

Elliott Crow — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 21:01:31 GMT

This morning we released our breakdown of the East Region, but the South Region has some juicy matchups. Ranging from a tough McNeese squad going up against an under-seeded Vanderbilt team, to VCU going to battle against a Caleb Wilson-less North Carolina squad, to Troy who’s lost to a sub-300 KenPom team and beating a top-50 KenPom team.

Without further-ado, let’s break down the South Region!

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South Region

Vanderbilt (5) vs McNeese (12)

Photo: McNeese Athletics

This is the spiciest matchup of the entire tournament in the Round of 64 in my opinion. After Vanderbilt ended the season 24-7 with wins over UCF, VCU, Saint Mary’s, SMU, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Tennessee, to then go to the SEC Tournament and beat Tennessee again, drilling Florida (a one seed) 91-74, then losing in the SEC Championship to Arkansas, I almost assumed that the Commodores were guaranteed a four-seed, maybe even the last three. I would have never assumed they would receive a five-seed.

While Commodores fans can be frustrated, McNeese fans should be even more frustrated with the fact they have to play an under-seeded power conference school. While this isn’t Will Wade’s McNeese squad, Bill Armstrong has done a phenomenal job in year one as the Cowboys are 28-5 with wins over quite a few strong mid-majors. They are 68th in KenPom, 91st in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 49th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

The Cowboys thrive on creating turnovers, blocking out, and shot blocking. They are 33rd in turnover percentage, 1st in opponent turnover percentage, 49th in offensive rebounding percentage, 13th in block percentage, 4th in opponent block percentage, 2nd in steal percentage, and 1st in opponent steal percentage.

Larry Johnson is an absolute monster. He averaged 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 50.2% overall. His 30.4% possession usage is 45th in the nation, and he’s taking 33.2% of the Cowboys shots when he’s on the court which is 16th in the nation. Lately, he’s been on another level. Over his last seven games he is averaging 20.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game, including an insane stat line of 27 points, 12 rebounds, and seven steals in the Southland semifinals.

Coming in here, Vanderbilt is ranked 12th in KenPom and they take great care of the ball. They are 47th in non-steal turnover percentage and 11th in turnover percentage. This is what makes the matchup difficult for McNeese because they thrive off exactly what Vanderbilt is great at on both ends of the court. However, that’s not putting the nail in the coffin for McNeese. This is a team full of power conference caliber players that’s going to go toe-to-toe with one of the best from the SEC this season. Pencil this in as the most competitive 12-5 seed matchup in the NCAA Tournament this season.

Nebraska (4) vs Troy (13)

Photo: Troy Athletics

Troy has been a wild team to follow all season. If you’ve tuned in at all to our weekly Heat Check Reports during the regular season, you’ll know that we’ve covered them many times because of how streaky they can be. They took down a tough Kent State squad, beat San Diego State in double-overtime, lost to USC in triple-overtime by one point, beat Akron, UAB, etc. However, they lose to West Georgia (304th in KenPom), and took six losses in conference.

For Nebraska, it’s been the season of Cornhuskers’ dreams for a team that is seeking to finally claim their first win in the NCAA Tournament in program history. They started off 20-0 before dropping some close games to Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa.

The Trojans are 141st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 166th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 152nd in effective field goal percentage, 108th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 55th in offensive rebounding percentage, 43th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 96th in two-point shooting percentage, 309th in tempo, and 54th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts.

Even breaking down their metrics shows just how all over the place this Troy team is. However, where they can take advantage of Nebraska is on the offensive glass. The Cornhuskers are just 314th in offensive rebounding percentage, compared to Troy’s 55th. Nebraska isn’t terrible on defense inside the paint, but they are average at best, so Troy has the opportunity to take advantage of second chance points inside, even if just 44.7% of their points are coming from inside the arc.

Thomas Dowd is the name to know from Troy. The 6’8 junior is averaging 14.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.2 steals while shooting 45.1% overall and 34.4% from three-point. In their win against San Diego State he had 25 points with 19 rebounds. He posted a streak of five double-doubles in a row at one point.

This is a tough matchup for Troy considering the Cornhuskers have the ceiling to go on a deep run in the Tournament, but on the flip side, the Trojans have shown that they have the potential to knock off anyone on any given day. I expect this to not be a blowout and be a game that people will be flipping to in the final minutes.

Check out our Top Five Potential Upsets!

North Carolina (6) vs VCU (11)

Photo: VCU Athletics

I view this matchup between VCU very similarly to how I view the South Florida vs Louisville game as another 6 vs 11 seed. VCU is 27-7 on the season, 45th in KenPom, and 43rd in the NET. They started off a little up-and-down, losing to Utah State by three points, NC State by six, Vanderbilt by 15, and New Mexico bs three. However, they also picked up wins over South Florida and Virginia Tech in the non-conference. They cruised through the A-10, going 15-3 while taking down Dayton twice and only losing to Saint Louis in both matchups and George Mason on the road by six.

The Rams have traditionally been a stout defensive team, but they are a tad bit more offensively minded this season. They rank 46th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 60th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how their key metrics line up:

67th in effective field goal percentage
62nd in opponent effective field goal percentage
74th in turnover percentage
15th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt
35th in three-point shooting percentage
116th in two-point shooting percentage
54th in non-steal turnover percentage
131st in opponent three-point shooting percentage
50th in opponent two-point shoot percentage

Terrence Hill Jr has been incredible this season. He’s averaging 14.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 46.1% overall and 35.5% from three-point. Lazar Djokovic has been an huge piece to the puzzle as he is averaging 13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, one assist, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 51.6% from the floor and 35.6% from beyond the arc.

North Carolina comes into this game at 24-8 on the season, 29th in KenPom, and 24th in the NET. They lost standout freshman Caleb Wilson for the season with a broken thump on February 10th against Miami and that’s thrown a wrench in things. Coming into that game they were 19-4, but they dropped that game to Miami, then took an 82-58 loss to NC State, and a 76-61 loss to Duke. In the remaining games they did win, they had to just skirt past Louisville by three, Virginia Tech by seven, and Clemson by four all at home.

If VCU wants to complete the upset, they’ll need to focus on the three-pointer. UNC is just 216th in opponent three point shooting percentage and their opponents score 33.8% of their points from beyond the arc, an area where VCU thrives. The Rams are 95th in the country in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts and score 34.3% of their points from deep.

If UNC wants to avoid being upset, they need to keep the Rams off the line. VCU lives at the free throw line as they score 23% of their points at the line which is 44th in the nation and they are 18th in free throw attempts per game. The Tar Heals do not foul, in fact, they are 16th in the country in least amount of fouls per game and their opponents score just 14.8% of their points from the stripe which is 358th in the country.

This is going to be a very close game and VCU has momentum, while North Carolina is going to be swinging without their future NBA player Caleb Wilson. We’re going with the Rams.

Check out our breakdown of the East Region here!

Illinois (3) vs Penn (14)

Photo: Penn Athletics

TJ Power. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Okay, so this is probably one of the funniest matchups of the entire tournament’s opening round. We’ve got Brad Underwood going up against Fran McCaffrey once again as McCaffrey is taking his fifth team to the NCAA Tournament with the Penn Quakers.

While everyone assumed that Yale would be the team in the Ivy League to come out with the single-bid, but TJ Power’s 44 point performance including the game-tying three nearly at the buzzer to send them to overtime in the Ivy League Championship. Power is averaging 16.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 45.5% overall and 43.3% from beyond the arc. He is 27th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage.

Penn started off just 9-10, but finished the season 18-11 with just a four-point loss to Yale preventing them from being undefeated from January 31st and on. They are 150th in KenPom, 204th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 111th in defensive adjusted efficiency. No shocker with TJ Power’s stats, but they are 11th in three-point shooting percentage and 89th in steal percentage.

Unfortunately, Illinois has an incredibly high ceiling. They are unique because they have the ability to fall flat, which means that Penn’s chances are not 0% here. TJ Power has the light of March Madness in him that is just prime for a Jack Golhke-esq performance against the Illini. However, Illinois is 2nd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 28th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are essentially at the top of the majority of categories. If they can contain Power, then this won’t be a problem.

Saint Mary’s (7) vs Texas A&M (10)

Photo: Saint Mary’s Athletics

Bucky McMillan vs Randy Bennett is a dream matchup as both coaches rely on the unique styles of play and are incredibly strategic coaches. Kudos to what McMillan has done this season as Texas A&M didn’t have much love coming into the year. They started off 7-1 in the SEC, and although they finished just 11-7 they still picked up wins over Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Kentucky.

For Saint Mary’s, they enter play at 27-5 with loses to Vanderbilt, Boise State by one point, Santa Clara twice, and Gonzaga on the road. They ended their regular season with a win against Gonzaga at home in their last regular season matchup between the two rivals as members of the WCC. The Gaels sit at 24th in KenPom and 22nd in the NET, while lining up at 43rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 19th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their key team metrics line up:

108th in effective field goal percentage
18th in opponent effective field goal percentage
15th in offensive rebounding percentage
4th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
13th in three-point shooting percentage
41st in opponent three-point shooting percentage
20th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
1st in free throw shooting percentage
41st in steal percentage

A&M is 49th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 41st in defensive adjusted efficiency, but they love to play fast as they are 29th in tempo and 14th in average possession length. They lack interior defense and struggle to score inside as they are just 334th in two-point distribution in total points and are 327th in block percentage. If Saint Mary’s can get inside, they’ll be able to take advance.

If A&M wants to pull off the upset, they’ll need to focus on locking down Saint Mary’s from outside. They have a decent perimeter defense at 54th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, where the Gaels are 13th in the country. However, Saint Mary’s needs to do the same as the Aggies score 37% of their points from outside which is 50th in the country. On the flip side, they don’t score any points from inside the arc where Saint Mary’s is lethal on defense.

Who ever wins? A date with Houston in the Round of 32. Give us the Gaels over A&M. Check out why I think this Saint Mary’s team is built to better position itself this season:

Houston (2) vs Idaho (15)

Photo: Idaho Athletics

Idaho finished the regular season just 17-14 and 9-9 in the Big Sky, but they went on a run in the conference tournament, taking down Sacramento State, Montana State, Eastern Washington, and Montana to clinch their bid to the Big Dance.

The Vandals are 145th in KenPom, 176th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 136th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They aren’t going to blow you away in any key categories, but they are well balance. They sit at 148th in three-point shooting percentage, 169th in two-point shooting percentage, 63rd in turnover percentage, 5th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, and 74th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Kolton Mitchell has put together a strong sophomore campaign, averaging 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 39.3% from the floor and 35.9% from three-point. He had some dominating games, including two 30+ point performances.

This is a real tough matchup for an Idaho team that came out of the Big Sky that many thought Portland State would have no problem with. Unfortunately, Houston has many sending them to the Final Four, with others (including myself) sending them to the NCAA Championship.

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Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh (16) vs Florida (1)

While many would have loved to have seen a Lehigh vs Duke matchup to bring back old memories, however, this year we’ll see them go up against Prairie View A&M in Dayton as part of the First Four. The Panthers come in at 18-17 out of the SWAC and the Mountain Hawks sit at 18-16 after winning the Patriot League that Navy won by six games in the regular season.

While we are always rooting for small teams, Florida’s going to take this one easily.

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2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Breakdown

Elliott Crow — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 15:31:04 GMT

Today, the NIT and First Four are both tipping off, but you’ll still have until Thursday morning to finalize your brackets! Over the next two days, we are going to be breaking down each region’s matchups containing a non-power conference school to help shape your picks this season.

First up, we’re breaking down the East Region!

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East Region

St. Johns (5) vs Northern Iowa (12)

Photo: Northern Iowa Athletics

The Northern Iowa Panthers had an up-and-down season, starting off 12-3 and 4-0 in the Missouri Valley, but they fell to just a 1-6 stretch. They finished the regular season 19-12 and 11-9, but won four games in a row in Arch Madness to pick up the auto-bid to the Big Dance.

The Panthers are 72nd in KenPom and the NET. They are driven by their defense as they sit at 24th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 101st in two-point shooting percentage, and 3rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Trey Campbell is the leading player, averaging 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 44% overall and 34.7% from beyond the arc.

St. John’s was a preseason favorite, but they fell flat at the beginning as they opened up to just 4-3. However, they figured it out as they’ve lost just twice since the calendar turned to 2026, falling to Providence 77-71 and UConn in an insane 72-40 rout. They cruised through the Big East Tournament, including a 72-52 win over UConn in the Championship.

There are a few factors coming into play here as I feel like St. John’s could’ve been a four-seed, while Northern Iowa could’ve maybe been a 13-seed. However, these two defenses make it an interesting game to monitor. St. John’s sits at 12th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 68th in tempo, while UNI is top-25 in defense as well, but just 363rd in tempo. On the offensive end, UNI is 52nd in two-point shooting and 128th in three-point shooting, compared to St. John’s who sits at 190th and 216th in both.

If the Panthers want to pick up the win over the Red Storm, they are going to have to force them to play at their speed, play excellent defense as St. John’s isn’t an efficient shooting team. For St. John’s, they need to focus on the offensive glass as they are one of the best in the country at 28th and UNI is 356th.

Kansas (4) vs Cal Baptist (13)

Photo: Cal Baptist Athletics

Kansas has been in the highlights of college basketball all season for sometimes the right thing and many times the wrong. With the dilemma and conversations around Darryn Peterson, it makes the Jayhawks come into the tournament in an interesting position. They are 23-10, 21st in KenPom, and the NET. However, they are just 4-5 over their last nine games including blow out losses to Iowa State, Cincinnati, Arizona, Houston, and a ten-point loss to Arizona State. They do have a strong 69-56 win at home over Houston during that span.

Cal Baptist has been a fun story from the beginning of the year as the Lancers started off 7-0 with wins over UC Irvine and Oregon State. They lost by eight to Colorado and 91-85 to Utah both on the road. They finished the season 23-8 and 13-5 the WAC while taking down Utah Tech and Utah Valley in the tournament to clinch their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in program history since joining the Division I ranks in 2018. They are 106th in KenPom and 98th in the NET.

If you haven’t heard of him yet, you need to familiarize yourself with Dominique Daniels Jr. on Cal Baptist. He’s averaging 23.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and one steal while shooting 43.7% overall and 32.8% from three-point. He’s dropped 40+ points twice, including 47 against Utah Valley earlier in the season, and he’s finished with single-digit points just once in their fifth game of the season. His 31% possession usage is 34th in the nation and he takes 34% of the Lancers’ shots when he’s on the court which is 11th overall.

Defense is the driver of both teams as Kansas is 10th in defensive adjusted efficiency and Cal Baptist is 50th. The Lancers are 15th in opponent effective field goal percentage and the Jayhawks are 4th. Both teams don’t run necessarily quick offenses, and they rely on the paint as Kansas is 120th in 2pt distribution and Cal Baptist is 80th, despite being just 318th in two-point shooting percentage.

If Cal Baptist wants to pull this off, they have to ensure that Daniels Jr. is not cut off. There’s no doubt that he’ll be on the face of all of Kansas’ scouting reports this week and he’ll be the focal point of their defensive pressure when they tip off on Friday. Aside from Daniels Jr., they’ll need to focus cleaning up the offensive glass as they are 11th in the nation and Kansas is just average at boxing out as they sit at 168th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.

All four of the 13-4 seeded matchups are interesting this year and with the way that Kansas has finished the season it doesn’t instill full confidence that they’ll be game ready come Friday and Cal Baptist matches up well against the Jayhawks.

Louisville (6) vs South Florida (11)

Photo: South Florida Athletics

The Bracket has been released for a day and a half now and I’ve already seen conversations around this game all over the college basketball world. The Bulls are a fun team to watch and one that could make a trip to the Sweet-16 if the cards land right, but they’ll have to get past a tough Louisville team first.

You can check out our full breakdown on this matchup here in our NCAA Tournament Top 5 Potential Upsets article.

Michigan St (3) vs North Dakota St (14)

Photo: North Dakota State Athletics

While Wright State and Virginia is an intriguing 3 vs 14 seed matchup, Michigan State and North Dakota State is right there as well. The Bison come in at 27-7 on the season, 113th in KenPom, and 114th in the NET. They are a well balanced team at 124th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 124th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

The Bison are led by Damari Wheeler-Thomas who averages 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 40.4% overall and 38.5% from three-point. He’s finished with less than 10 points just five times this season. Then Trevian Carson is right behind with 12 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.9 steals per game while shooting 48.1% overall and 37.9% from three-point. On the offensive end, he’s been a little cold of late however, even when he isn’t scoring he’s filling up the stat sheet. Over his last ten games, he’s averaging 8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. He’s dished out seven assists twice during that span.

Here’s where they lie with their team metrics:

85th in effective field goal percentage
109th in turnover percentage
62nd in opponent turnover percentage
77th in offensive rebounding percentage
17th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
73rd in three-point shooting percentage
126th in two-point shooting percentage

This is a team that isn’t at the bottom of anything, but isn’t at the top of many categories either. While I think it’s going to be very difficult to take down the Spartans, I firmly believe that North Dakota State would have the best opportunity among any of the 14-seeds sheerly because they do everything well or above average, giving them the versatility to match against the Spartans.

UConn (2) vs Furman (15)

Photo: Furman Athletics

Furman started off the season strong at 10-4 then moved on to 16-7 and 7-3 in the SoCon. However, things fell off as they finished the season just 19-12 and 10-8 in conference, yet they managed to go on a run by taking down Samford, UNC Greensboro, and the one-seed East Tennessee State 76-61 in the SoCon Championship.

They sit at 200th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 181st in defensive adjusted efficiency and 191st in KenPom. Alex Wilkins has been one of the best freshman in the country this season as the 6’5 guard is averaging 17.7 points, two rebounds, and 4.7 assists while shooting 45.8% overall and 32.1% from deep. His 34.4% possession usage is 7th in the nation, while his 34.7 assist rate is 32nd. When he’s on the court for the Paladins, he’s taking 32.9% of the team’s shots which is 21st in the country.

UConn was looking at a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Marquette in the last game of the season after having suffered a 91-84 loss to Creighton just a couple of weeks before. The Huskies at 29-5, still in conversation for a Final Four or even Championship appearance. While Furman can be a scrappy mid-major, it has a tall task in facing off against UConn.

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Duke (1) vs Siena (16)

Photo: Siena Athletics

Will we ever get another UMBC? The statistics don’t say no, but it’s probably not going to happen this year. For Siena, they came out of the MAAC which had a tremendous season with Merrimack, Siena, Marist, Saint Peter’s, and Quinnipiac all having strong seasons. They enter at 23-11 and 192nd in KenPom.

They run a slow offense as they are 319th in tempo and 341st in average possession length, but they put an emphasis on bringing their opponents along with them as they are 319th in opponent average possession length. Defense is the true driver as they are 53rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 106th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 47th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Gavin Doty is a dog, averaging 17.9 points, seven rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 46.3% overall and 33.3% from three-point. He’s dropped 31 points against Iona and in their loss to Indiana he finished with 16 points and six rebounds.

While I love a good underdog story, the Duke Blue Devils will be winning this one.

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NCAA Tournament: Top 5 Potential Upsets

Elliott Crow — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 18:01:34 GMT

The 2026 NCAA Tournament has been released with one of the least controversial brackets in recent memory. Traditionally, we’ll have a mid-major that was left out or a questionable power conference program that was given a bid to argue about, but this year is mostly satisfactory.

However, what will absolutely change this season is the number of upsets in the first weekend. Last year, there were a notable lack of upsets from mid-majors in the NCAA Tournament, sparking conversations around whether or not the idea of “Cinderella” is dead in March Madness. This year should prove that to not be the case.

As you fill out your bracket, it’s important to know who those lower seeds are that might be able to upset a higher seed. Let’s take a look at the five most likely matchups to produce an upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

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South Florida (11) vs Louisville (6)

Photo: South Florida Athletics

The South Florida Bulls won the regular season title for the American and claimed the Tournament Championship spot as well, taking down Wichita State 70-55. They are 25-8 on the season and riding an eleven game winning streak as they head to the NCAA Tournament and sit at 47th in KenPom and 45th in the NET.

The Bulls are led by one of the best starting fives in all of college basketball. Their top three players include, Wes Enis who averages 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, while Izaiyah Nelson is averaging 15.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Joseph Pinion averages 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.1 steals.

As a team, they are 61st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 40th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 15th in tempo, 7th in offensive rebounding percentage, 47th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 25th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, and 27th in opponent steal percentage. They love the three-pointer as they are 93rd in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt, while they rely on ball movement as they are 47th in assist per field goal made.

Louisville is 23-10, 19th in KenPom, 19th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 25th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Ryan Conwell leads the team with 18.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals while Mikel Brown Jr. averages 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.2 steals.

Here’s what I love about the matchup. The Bulls are 25th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, in which the Cardinals at 9th in the country in two-point shooting percentage. Both teams love to run quick as Louisville is 62nd in tempo, and South Florida loves to maintain control of the ball. They are 27th in opponent steal percentage, 98th in non-steal turnover percentage, 85th in steal percentage. Louisville on the other hand is 147th in steal percentage, 156th in opponent steal percentage, and 180th in non-steal turnover percentage.

Where it could go wrong for South Florida is if they don’t block out well. Louisville is 95th in offensive rebounding percentage and they are 4th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. The Bulls are 248th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage and just 180th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. If the Cardinals start to rack up second-chance opportunities and pound South Florida from beyond the arc, it could get out of hand quickly.

A few weeks ago, we broke down why we thought that South Florida could be a Bracket Buster. Check it out below:

Utah State (9) vs Villanova (8)

Photo: Utah State Athletics

While this isn’t a double-digit seed upset, it’s still a nine over an eight regardless. The Utah State Aggies are 28-6, 30th in KenPom, and 26th in the NET. They stumbled a little bit last in the regular season, losing three of their last five games, but they fired off in the Mountain West Tournament, drilling UNLV 80-60, Nevada 79-66, and San Diego State 73-62.

MJ Collins Jr and Mason Falslev are the two names to know. Collins Jr. is averaging 17.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 49.1% overall and 36.6% from beyond the arc. Falslev is averaging 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and two steals per game while shooting 52% overall and 41.1% from beyond the arc.

The Aggies are 28th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 45th in defensive adjusted efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage, 108th in three-point shooting percentage, 11th in two-point shooting percentage, and 36th in assist to field goals made.

Villanova is 24-8, 33rd in KenPom, and 35th in the NET. They are 41st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 35th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They sit at 76th in effective field goal percentage, 70th in turnover percentage, 32nd in block percentage, and 24th in steal percentage.

Overall, these are two very evenly matched teams, thus the separation of just one seed. However, the metrics line up better for the Aggies across the board. Nova is 179th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 170th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, two areas where the Aggies thrive. Utah State is 331st in opponent average possession length, where as Villanova is 269th themselves, so Utah State is used to their style of play.

If Nova wants a chance to win this game, they are going to have to live and die by the three-pointer. They are 53rd in the nation in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt and 100th in three-point shooting percentage, where Utah State is just 178th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and just 236th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt. Essentially, the Aggies are open to letting teams shoot from deep and aren’t that great at defending the perimeter where as that’s how Villanova wins games. I’m not convinced that’s enough to overcome the other glaring holes that gives the advantage to Utah State.

High Point (12) vs Wisconsin (5)

Photo: High Point Athletics

Everyone loves a twelve-seed upset over a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and my pick this season is the High Point Panthers over Wisconsin. The Panthers are 30-4 on the season, riding a 14 game winning streak. They are 92nd in KenPom and 76th in the NET.

Terry Anderson, Rob Martin, and Camron Fletcher are the three names that you should familiarize yourselves with. Anderson is averaging 16 points, six rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 56.4% overall. Martin is averaging 15.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 42.2% overall. Fletcher is averaging 12.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals while shooting 54.8% overall and 36.4% from beyond the arc.

As a team, they are 66th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 161st in defensive adjusted efficiency. They love a quick offense as they are 49th in tempo and 24th in average possession length. They are 48th in effective field goal percentage, 5th in turnover percentage, 5th in opponent turnover percentage, 156th in three-point shooting percentage, 32nd in two-points shooting percentage, and 4th in steal percentage. Their overall defensive stance is a bit skewed as they are still 64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 2nd in opponent steal percentage, 89th in opponent blocking percentage, and 175th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Wisconsin is 24-10, 22nd in KenPom, and 25th in the NET. They’ve been a bit up-and-down this season, but have huge wins over Michigan on the road, Illinois on the road, Michigan State at home, and Purdue on the road.

Why do I think this could be a reasonable upset? Wisconsin loves to shoot the three. They are 6th in the country in three-point attempt vs field goal attempt, 4th in three-point distribution (their total % of points), and 53rd in three-point shooting percentage. High Point does a strong job of defending the perimeter for an average defensive team. They are 64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 254th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt. On the defensive end, Wisconsin struggles with steals as they are just 288th in steal percentage compared to High Point sitting at 4th.

If Wisconsin wants to seal the deal, they need to limit High Point’s ability to get to the free throw line. The Badgers are 71st in opponent free throw attempt vs field goal attempt at 30.5, meanwhile the Panthers are 22nd in the country at 42.9. 22.5% of the Panthers points come from the free throws, which is 57th overall as Wisconsin sits at just 291st in opponent percentage of free throws at 17.8%.

This isn’t going to be a walk in the park for High Point, but if the Panthers can do all of the right things, this could be an electric Thursday matchup.

Santa Clara (10) v Kentucky (7)

Photo: Santa Clara Athletics

I was drooling when I saw this matchup revealed during Selection Sunday. The Broncos are 26-8 on the season, 35th in KenPom, and 40th in the NET. They have strong wins over McNeese, Xavier, Nevada, Minnesota, and Saint Mary’s. They lost by just one point to Saint Louis, and had only one bad loss (a very bad one indeed) to Loyola Chicago.

Christian Hammond, Elijah Maji, and Allen Graves lead the Broncos. Hammond averages 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 49% overall and 40% from beyond the arc. Mahi is averaging 13.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 44.8% overall and 33.6% from three-point. Graves is averaging 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and two steals while shooting 51.7% overall and 41.6% from deep.

Santa Clara is 23rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, 82nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, 54th in effective field goal percentage, 130th in three-point shooting percentage 39th in two-point shooting percentage, and 19th in offensive rebounding percentage. On the defensive end, they are 22nd in opponent turnover percentage, 117th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 133th in opponent block percentage, and 17th in opponent steal percentage.

Kentucky is 21-13, 28th in KenPom, and 28th in the NET. They finished just 2-5 in their final seven games of the regular season, but did pick up two wins over a struggling LSU squad 87-82 and Missouri 78-72 who also snuck their way into the NCAA Tournament before falling to Florida 71-63. Overall, they’ve been very underwhelming comparatively to how hyped up they were coming into the season with their roster construction and NIL budget.

Up-and-down their offensive statistics, Santa Clara has the advantage as Kentucky is 102nd in effective field goal percentage, 167th in three-point shooting percentage, 80th in two-point shooting percentage, and 75th in offensive rebounding percentage. They do hold an advantage on the defensive end a bit, however, the Broncos have a significant advantage over the Wildcats in turnovers. Kentucky is just 229th in opponent turnover percentage, compared to Santa Clara’s 22nd in the same metric.

This is going to be a very popular pick, and it should be. I will say, Santa Clara failed to beat Gonzaga in their three appearances, losing 89-77, 94-86, and 79-68. However, Kentucky is not Gonzaga, and if you just on the surface compare that Kentucky is the same-seed as Saint Mary’s who Santa Clara won the season series 2-1 against then you can help subside those concerns if you have any.

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Saint Louis (9) vs Georgia (8)

Photo: Saint Louis Athletics

It looked like Saint Louis was well on their way to not being in the “potential upset” category as they were 24-1 on the season with just a one point loss against Stanford on a game winning shot. However, the Billikens struggled over the final few weeks, dropping games to Rhode Island, Dayton, George Mason, and Dayton again in the A-10 Tournament. They enter March Madness 28-5, 41st in KenPom, and 30th in the NET.

Robbie Avila is the star of the show, averaging 12.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists while shooting 50.6% overall and 41.6% from three-point. Trey Green and Dion Brown are both right behind Avila. Green is averaging 11.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 47.2% overall and 45.7% from three-point. Brown is averaging 11.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 60.6% overall and 40.4% from beyond the arc.

SLU is 51st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 42nd in defensive adjusted efficiency, while sitting at 21st in tempo and 4th in average possession length. They are 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage and just as good on the other end at 2nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. They are 2nd in three-point shooting percentage, 15th in two-point shooting percentage, 8th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 5th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Georgia is 22-10, 32nd in KenPom, and 33rd in the NET. Things looked bleak for the Bulldogs, going just 1-5 over six games in between January and February, but they rebounded to finished 4-1 in the regular season with wins over Kentucky, Texas, and Alabama. They ended up falling to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament who went on a run to the SEC Semifinals.

Saint Louis dominates the majority of the metrics, as Georgia is just 170th in three-point shooting percentage, 169th in opponent three-point shooting percentage 28th in two-point shooting percentage, and 99th in opponent two-points shooting percentage. However, they are much better are creating/limiting turnovers and getting second chance opportunities. They are 48th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to Saint Louis at 161st. Georgia is 5th in non-steal turnover percentage, and SLU is just 173rd.

However, this is probably going to be the most popular 9>8 seed pick in the tournament. Saint Louis’ award if they beat Georgia? Most likely a date with Michigan…brutal.

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Bracket Busters Bracket Challenge

Elliott Crow — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 15:02:02 GMT

It’s March! The NCAA Tournament kicks off this week with the First Four starting on Tuesday and the Round of 64 taking place on Thursday, so what better way to come together as a community than a Bracket Challenge!

While we are crushed that we won’t be hosting a CBI Bracket Challenge this year, we are upping the reward for our traditional ESPN Bracket Challenge Group as the winner of this season will receive a $50 HomeField Gift Card!

Unfamiliar with HomeField? They produce some of the highest quality college apparel with unique, vintage designs. I personal have several pieces of apparel from them for various schools like Oregon State, Vanderbilt, and more.

The winner of the Bracket Challenge is REQUIRED to be a subscriber to Bracket Busters, so if you are not yet, do so below (free subscribers are included!):

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If you would like to join in on the fun, do so here (or the button below) using the password: BBHoops

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Looking forward to seeing you all there!

Can Saint Mary's Return to the Sweet 16?

Elliott Crow — Sun, 15 Mar 2026 17:35:08 GMT

The Saint Mary’s Gaels haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since the 2010 NCAA Tournament despite having been a five or seven seed in each of the last four seasons and reaching the tournament eight times during that stretch.

With Paulius Murauskas, Mikey Lewis, and Joshua Dent, this Gaels team is deep and loaded with elite talent. They are well balanced on both the offensive and defensive end with a focus on taking efficient shots.

With Selection Sunday upon us and the bracket being revealed in a mere few hours, we are breaking down the metrics and key players behind this strong Gaels team:

👉 Check out our full breakdown below on why I think that the Saint Mary’s Gaels could potentially return to the Sweet 16.

Could the Hofstra Pride Become a Bracket Buster?

Elliott Crow — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 17:00:57 GMT

After having their prior opportunity to play in the NCAA Tournament taken away by the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020, the Hofstra Pride are going to appear in the Big Dance for the first time in 25 years.

On a night filled with emotion from former alumni, NBA Champion Speedy Claxton, the Pride took down Monmouth 75-69 to clinch the CAA Championship and their own opportunity to show the world what they can do on the big stage.

This isn’t just a fun story. This is a legitimate, strong Mid-Major that has the potential to be a Bracket Buster next week.

Today, we are breaking down why this team’s metrics speaks for themselves and who are the key players that you need to know when filling out your brackets.

👉 Check out our full breakdown below on why I think that the Hofstra Pride could be a potential Bracket Buster that you need to pick when filling out your bracket.

Conference Tournaments: Who's Punched Their Tickets?

Elliott Crow — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 17:02:37 GMT

We are now less than one week away from Selection Sunday and we already have six bids punched to the NCAA Tournament: Tennessee State (Ohio Valley), Long Island (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit League), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), High Point (Big South), and Queens (Atlantic Sun).

There’s been plenty of chaos throughout college basketball. Belmont was the favorites in the Missouri Valley, but they were bounced in their first game. UNC Wilmington and Charleston were both eliminated in the quarterfinals. Remember the Sun Belt’s insane conference tournament bracket? George Southern has won five games in a row to make it to the Championship against Troy.

With many more coming this week, let’s take a look at who will be headed to the NCAA Tournament and what chaos unfolded as conference tournaments began last week.

Who’s Going Dancing?

Tennessee State ~ Ohio Valley

Photo: Ohio Valley Conference

Back in 1993 and 1994, the Tennessee State Tigers punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first and second time in program history. In 93’ the Tigers placed as a 15 seed, then followed it up the next season with a 14 seed led by 11th overall pick in the NBA Draft Carlos Rogers who averaged 24.5 points and 11.5 rebounds.

After going 21-9 in the regular season overall and 15-5 in conference, the Tigers punched their bye to the semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. They ended the season on a four-game winning streak then took down UT Martin 68-55 and Morehead State 93-67 as they dropped 55 points in the first half while holding the Eagles to just 34.

The name you need to familiarize yourself with is Aaron Nkrumah. The 6’6 senior is averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists, and 2.8 steals per game while shooting 43.7% overall and 35.2% from beyond the arc. Against UT Martin, he finished with 19 points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals, while he played more of a facilitation role against Morehead State with 14 points, six assists, two rebounds, and one steal. On the season, he finished with single-digit points just three times and he had as many as seven steals against SEMO when he finished with a stat line of 14 points, nine rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and seven steals.

Northern Iowa ~ Missouri Valley

Photo: Mid Major Madness

The Northern Iowa Panthers had an up-and-down season, but they started and finished the year off strong. They started off 6-0 with wins over Furman, UC Irvine, and CSUN. They went on to pick up wins against Oakland and lost by five points of Saint Mary’s. In conference play, they started off 4-0, dropped five straight, then finished the year 6-4 in their last ten games to finished 19-12 and 11-9 in the MVC.

The Panthers’ defense was carrying them as they had a daunting task to win four games in a row as they finished with the six seed which meant they had to play in Thursday of Arch Madness. They went on a run, taking down Evansville 68-59, Illinois State 74-52, Bradley 73-69, and UIC in the Championship game 84-69. When their defense has held teams to less than 70 points, they are phenomenal with a record of 18-7 on the season. They sit at 25th in KenPom for defensive adjusted efficiency.

Their defensive team metrics overall lie at:

23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage
97th in opponent turnover percentage
25th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage
3rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage
96th in opponent two-point shooting percentage
46th in opponent non-steal turnover percentage

Typically, a stout defensive team wins Arch Madness and we saw that once again with Northern Iowa who as now won five games in a row. They’ll most likely earn a 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll be a dangerous 12-seed at that depending on who they draw come Selection Sunday.

Trey Campbell was incredible in Arch Madness. The 6’4 senior finished with 23 points against Evansville, 12 with six rebounds against Illinois State, 13 with six assists, three rebounds, and four steals against Bradley, and 23 points with four rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and one steal against UIC.

Queens ~ Atlantic Sun

Photo: Queens Athletics

The Queens Royals punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament with a 98-93 thrilling overtime victory against Central Arkansas for the first time in program history. You couldn’t have asked for much more out of the Atlantic Sun Conference Championship as Camren Hunter went for 49 points on 8-12 shooting from the Bears as they tied it with mere seconds left in the second half forcing overtime. Chris Ashby was just as good for Queens with 34 points on 10-19 shooting overall and from deep (yes this kid took 19 three-point shots and not a single one from inside).

The Royals showed potential from the beginning of the season, losing some close games to Winthrop, Duquesne, while also taking on a gauntlet of a schedule including Villanova, Virginia, Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Auburn. Queens then started on their conference schedule going a percentage 7-0, then dropping four of six. They finished strong, going 4-1 in their last five and then dominated their way from the Atlantic Sun tournament taking down West Georgia 71-63, Austin Peay 90-83, and Central Arkansas.

They don’t run a deep lineup as eight players contribute 12 or more minutes per game, while just seven contribute 20 or more. Five players average double-digits and as a team, their offensive is what’s driven their success. They rank 79th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 20th in effective field goal percentage, 56th in turnover percentage, 65th in three-point shooting percentage, 15th in two-point shooting percentage, and 31st in non-steal turnover percentage. Three players averaging 2.7 or more assists per game.

High Point ~ Big South

Photo: High Point Athletics

The High Point Panthers were once again incredible this season as they finished 30-4 and punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row. Their four losses game against UAB, Southern Illinois, App State in overtime, and Winthrop on the road. They had no problem in the Big South Tournament, taking down Gardner-Webb 81-59, UNC Asheville 75-71, and Winthrop 91-76.

This is one of the more well-balanced teams amongst those that we’ve written about so far as they sit at 63rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 161st in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here are how some of their metrics shape up:

50th in effective field goal percentage
5th in turnover percentage
5th in opponent turnover percentage
160th in three-point shooting percentage
64th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
35th in two-point shooting percentage
4th in steal percentage
2nd in opponent steal percentage

Terry Anderson and Rob Martin were both their strongest players this season. Anderson averaged 16 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 56.3% overall. Martin averaged 15.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 42.8% overall and 30.5% from beyond the arc. Both players dominated throughout their three games in the Big South Tournament.

North Dakota State ~ Summit League

Photo: Yahoo Sports

The North Dakota State Bisons pretty much cruised through the season as they went 24-7 overall and 14-2 in the Summit League. Their largest loss on the season came from UC Davis 80-68, while the rest were close losses aside from a beating from St. Thomas on the road at the end of the season 84-62. Fortunately, North Dakota knocked off St. Thomas in the Summit League Semifinals, setting up a preferred matchup for the Bisons.

In the tournament, they continued to roll past their opponents taking down Oral Roberts 76-65, Omaha 74-50, and North Dakota in the championship 70-62.

This is a well balanced team that ranks 125th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 119th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Driven by efficient shooting where they sit at 92nd in effective field goal percentage, 73rd in three-point shooting percentage, and 128th in two-point shooting percentage, they are also solid on the defensive end. They rank 62nd in opponent turnover percentage, 17th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, and 57th in opponent steal percentage. They do an incredible job of maintaining control of the ball.

Six players average nine points or more per game, while three average at least 2.8 assists per game. On the defensive end, Treyson Anderson features a 25.8% defensive rebounding percentage which is 22nd in the country with a 6.8% block percentage which is 88th. On the offensive end, Damari Wheeler-Thomas leads the team with 14.4 points per game along with 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals. Meanwhile, Andy Stefonowicz leads the team with 9.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists with 1.6 steals while also shooting 41.7% overall and 38.7% from beyond the arc.

This is going to be a dangerous 13 or 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Long Island ~ NEC

Photo: Long Island Athletics

Long Island has been a fun team to watch this season as dating back to the non-conference they had some thrillers. They nearly took down Mississippi State, gave FIU, Georgia, and Winthrop all runs for their money as well. Once they hit conference play they went on cruise control as they went 15-3 and finished the season 21-10. In the NEC Tournament, they took down Chicago State 79-75 and Wagner 64-56. The Sharks technically haven’t even finished yet as they play in the Championship game on Tuesday, March 10th against Mercyhurst. Due to Mercyhurst just transferring to Division I, they are ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament (this rule needs to change).

The Sharks are led by Jamal Fuller who is averaging 16.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, one steal, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 52.4% overall and 43.8% from beyond the arc. Malachi Davis who was unstoppable last season has been able to take a step back given that he has more talent surrounding him. Even with that, he’s still averaging 14.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 41.6% overall.

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Chaos

Arch Madness

Arch Madness is traditional one of the most fun conference tournaments to follow in all of college basketball. Just three number one seeds have won the Missouri Valley Conference Finals since 2016 and this year was no different as we had two teams from the Thursday games fighting each other between UIC and Northern Iowa as the five and six seeds.

These two teams weren’t the only story though. Opening night saw nothing but pure chaos. The Drake Bulldogs came into Arch Madness losing nine games in a row, finishing the regular season just 12-19 and 6-14 in the MVC. However, they took down a Southern Illinois team that had won seven of their last ten in the opening round 67-63, then upset the number one seeded Belmont Bruins 100-79 in the quarterfinals. Belmont was 26-5 and 16-4 in the MVC as some were arguing for their potential to get an at-large bid, though those chances were very slim. They’ll now head to the NIT as the Missouri Valley Conference earns an auto-bid to the NIT.

Jalen Quinn was the star of the show for Drake as he finished with 22 points and four rebounds against Southern Illinois, followed up with 31 points, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals against Belmont.

UIC was a team that we had talked about a few times this season during our Heat Check Reports. They finished the regular season 17-14 and 12-8 in the MVC and they had even popped off an eight game winning streak in conference after starting off just 0-4. After a run to the MVC Championship as a five-seed, they fell to Northern Iowa who was a six-seed in another season without the top-seed winning the auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament from the Missouri Valley Conference.

Sun Belt

The Sun Belt adopted a unique bracket style that significantly assists the top seeds in their chances of reaching the Sun Belt Championship and earning the traditionally one-bid conference’s auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. However, if you pay close attention to the updated bracket below, we had quite the story from Georgia Southern:

The Eagles were at one point this season 12-5 overall and 4-0 in the Sun Belt, but things got bleak as they proceeded to win just four games after January 3rd. However, all that matters is getting hot at the right time in the conference tournament and they proved to be a fun story in the Sun Belt bracket. They took down Old Dominion 88-84, Arkansas State 80-77, South Alabama 94-85, Coastal Carolina 96-72, and Marshall 82-78.

On the opposite end of the bracket, Southern Mississippi pulled off a similar feat. They were 11-7 and 5-1 in conference before dropping five games in a row. They bounced back a little bit, finishing 3-1 in their last four and sitting at 16-15 overall and 9-9 in the Sun Belt during the regular season. They popped off three games in a row in the tournament, taking down James Madison 86-80, Texas State 81-77, and App State 86-73. However, Troy took them down 78-70 in the Semifinals to advance to the Championship and end Southern Mississippi’s run.

For Georgia Southern, Spudd Webb has dropped 29 points against Old Dominion and 31 points against Marshall after a strong season where he averaged 15.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.7 steals while shooting 50.8% overall. In the other three games, it’s been all Tyren Moore. He had 25 points against Arkansas State with four steals, then 23 points with nine assists, five rebounds, and three steals against South Alabama, then a 40 piece with five rebounds and two assists against Coastal Carolina.

The Eagles will face off tonight against Troy at 6pm CST.

Other Conferences

UNC Wilmington fell to Campbell 85-70 after going 26-6 on the season and 15-3 in conference. Towson then drilled Charleston 81-56 after a disappointing season while Charleston was 21-11 and 14-4. The CAA now looks to be Hofstra’s to lose.
After winning the Patriot League by six games and going 26-6 on the season and 17-1 in conference, the Navy Midshipmen lost on a heartbreaking buzzer beater from Boston U. Colgate lost as well 76-69 to Lehigh so we are going to see one of Boston U or Lehigh for a change coming out of the Patriot League.

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Heat Check Report: Conference Tournaments Begin

Elliott Crow — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 18:01:13 GMT

Welcome to MARCH!

It’s officially one of the most wonderful times of the year as we enter March with conference tournaments starting as soon as today, but starting to kick into high gear tomorrow. We still have several conferences that are wrapping up the regular season with last minute battles for better seeding on the line.

Our Heat Check Report is going to look slightly different this week as we focus on who’s heating up and who’s on upset watch entering their respective conference tournaments this week. We’re adding a conference roundup, highlighting those that have clinched their regular season titles over the past week, giving you the context you need to know as you gear up to fill out your brackets.

Let’s dive into the madness.

Heating Up

Robert Morris

Photo: Robert Morris Athletics

02/23/26 KenPom: 157th
03/02/26 KenPom: 146th

The Colonials are HOT right now. They closed out the season winning seven games in a row, including taking down the conference champions twice in Wright State. This week, they took care of business against Detroit Mercy 73-62 and Cleveland State 83-64.

While their offense has been a tremendous driver of their success this season, their defense has been the true turning stone that helped them finish at 21-10 and 13-7 in the Horizon League. During this seven game winning streak, the Colonials did not let a single team score more than 69 points while scoring 72+ and 80+ in four games. They rank 136th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 182nd in defensive adjusted efficiency.

The combination of Ryan Prather Jr. and Desean Goode is going to be lethal in the conference tournament and whichever postseason tournament they land in. Prather Jr. is averaging 15.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on the season while shooting 43.8% overall and 36.9% from three-point. During this winning streak, he’s averaging 17.4 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. Goode is averaging 15.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists on the season while shooting 63.3% overall and 59.3% from three-point on 59 attempts. During the winning streak he has two double-doubles and he’s averaging 16.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.3 steals.

The Colonials secured the two-seed in the Horizon League Tournament which kicks off this week. They’ll take on Youngstown State in the first round on Wednesday. During the regular season they swept the Penguins with an 80-77 home win in overtime and a 72-66 road win.

Arkansas State

Photo: Arkansas State Athletics

02/23/26 KenPom: 140th
03/02/26 KenPom: 143rd

Arkansas State stumbled in January as they went 1-5 over the back-half of the month. They responded well in February, winning seven of their eight games to close out the regular season and finishing on a four-game winning streak. Their one loss came against South Alabama 92-88 in overtime.

As a team, they sit at 140th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 174th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Underneath year one of Ryan Pannone at the helm, they run one of the fastest offenses in the country as they sit at 9th in tempo and 6th in average possession length. It’s worked as the Red Wolves finished the regular season 20-11 and 11-7 in the Sun Belt.

They run an interesting style of offense as they are 68th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. However, they sit at just 236th in three-point shooting percentage vs 100th in two-point shooting percentage. Throw in the fact that they are 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, the puzzle pieces start to come together. They focus on taking a quick shot and cleaning up the glass thanks to three players ranking nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.

In general, they run a uniquely deep rotation. Eleven players are averaging at least 10 minutes per game and the most minutes comes from Christian Harmon who averages 27.4 minutes. He also leads the team while averaging 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 39.7% overall and 34.6% from beyond the arc.

The Sun Belt runs a wild conference tournament bracket, so the Red Wolves will play one of either ULM, Old Dominion, or Georgia Southern on Thursday. To win the entire conference tournament they’d have to get hot and win a whopping five games in a row including South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, and Marshall before they even get to the Championship.

Morehead State

Photo: Morehead State Athletics

02/23/26 KenPom: 278th
03/02/26 KenPom: 282nd

The Ohio Valley Conference has been an absolute battle this season. Both Morehead State and Tennessee State shared the regular season title in the conference as the Eagles finished the season winning seven games in a row and losing just twice since January 15th.

As a team, they rank 199th in offensive adjusted efficiency and just 323rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, their defense has stepped up tremendously on their hot stretch. Since January 15th, they’ve given up move than 70 points just three times, two of which were losses.

George Marshall has been the primary driver along with Davion Cunningham and Jon Carroll. Marshall is averaging 13.7 points with 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 43% overall and 37.3% from beyond the arc. Cunningham is averaging 11.6 points with 4.1 rebounds and two assists while Carroll is a monster on the glass averaging 11.4 points with 7.7 rebounds. Carroll is ranked 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.

They live inside the paint as they are just 348th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. However, they rank just 241st in two-point shooting percentage, but they are 20th in offensive rebounding percentage.

Tennessee State won the tiebreaker, so Morehead State clinched the two-seed in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. As a result, they receive a two-game bye which automatically puts them in the semi-finals. They’ll play one of either Lindenwood, Little Rock, or SEMO on Friday in Evansville, Indiana.

Hofstra

Photo: Hofstra Athletics

02/23/26 KenPom: 94th
03/02/26 KenPom: 92nd

The Hofstra Pride deserve more love. They are 20-10, winners of seven of their last eight, they rank in the top-100 of KenPom, and have impressive team metrics. As a team, they are 96th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 104th in defensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their metrics line up:

164th in effective field goal percentage
77th in offensive rebounding percentage
29th in three-point shooting percentage
58th in free throw shooting percentage
32nd in steal percentage
13th in opponent effective field goal percentage
88th in opponent three-point shooting percentage
5th in opponent two-point shooting percentage

Looking at their schedule and losses, they’ve yet to be blown out a single time. Their largest loss came against Iona in the non-conference 81-73. They lost by just four to UCF who has had a tremendous season, five to Temple, two to Columbia, and they’ve lost by five or less in five of their six conference losses.

Cruz Davis has been phenomenal this season. The 6’3 junior is averaging 20.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 45.2% overall and 40.3% from beyond the arc. He ranks 172nd in possession usage, 180th in assist rate, and 181st in three-point shooting.

The Pride have one last game against Drexel at home on Tuesday before the CAA Tournament kicks off later in the week. They stand alone in third place, but if they drop their game against Drexel they’ll tie with the Dragons. If they hold onto the three-seed, they’ll secure a bye until Sunday when they take on the winner of the seven and ten seed which will be some mix of Stony Brook, William & Mary, Towson, Campbell, Hampton, or Elon.

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On Fire

Conference Roundup

Central Arkansas clinched a share of the Atlantic Sun title with Austin Peay after putting up an incredible week. They took down the Governors 93-88 on the road, then followed it up with an 84-79 win at home against Queens. They’ve lost just once since January 10th while sitting at 20-11 on the season and 15-3 in conference. They’ll take on the winner of Bellarmine and Jacksonville on Friday.
Wright State bounced back this week, taking down Purdue Fort Wayne 74-70 and Northern Kentucky on an incredible late comeback 92-71 on the road. The Raiders finished the season 20-11 and 15-5 in the Horizon League as they clinched the regular season title. They’ll play the winner of Cleveland State and IU Indy on Wednesday.
Tennessee State clinched a share of the Ohio Valley Conference this week for the first time since 1999. They finished the season on a four-game winning streak, taking down SEMO 79-71 on the road and UT Martin 67-42 at home this week. The Tigers finished 21-9 overall and 15-5 in the OVC. They’ll take on one of SIUE, Eastern Illinois, or UT Martin on Friday in the semi-finals of the conference tournament.
Saint Mary’s took down #9 Gonzaga 70-59 in Moraga in their last regular season matchup before the Zags move to the PAC-12 next year. As a result, the Gaels clinched a share of the WCC title for the fourth consecutive year. They finished the season on a eight-game winning streak, 27-4 overall, 16-2 in conference, and in the top-25 of KenPom.
Troy clinched the Sun Belt regular season title as they finished 20-11 overall and 12-6 in conference. They were a little shaky at 3-3 over their last six games, but thanks to the conference tournament bracket, they’ll rest for a few days before being given a near guaranteed ticket to have a good shot at punching their ticket to the big dance.
North Dakota State clinched the regular season title in the Summit League as they took down North Dakota on Saturday 96-63. This came after a dominating defeat against St. Thomas on last Thursday 84-62 on the road. The Bisons finished the season 24-7 overall and 14-2 in conference. Watch out for the Tommies in the conference tournament, but the Bisons will take on the winner of Oral Roberts and UMKC.

Cooling Down

Portland State

02/23/26 KenPom: 143rd
03/02/26 KenPom: 159th

The Portland State Vikings were cruising at 17-6 and 11-1 in the Big Sky halfway through February, but things have gone south over the last few weeks. The Vikings are now just 1-4 over their last 5 games while riding a three-game losing streak.

They don’t run a high octane offense as they sit at 281st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 52nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, during this stretch they have yet to score more than 69 points and they only mustered 55 in their loss to the red hot Eastern Washington Eagles. Defense can absolutely win you championships, however, scoring sub-70 points in this era of college basketball is not a recipe for winning especially when your defense isn’t staying up to par.

Looking at their four losses, they have up 77 to Northern Colorado, 67 to Eastern Washington, 84 to Montana State, and 74 to Montana. For comparison, they’ve only given up 80+ in six games counting the Eastern Washington loss and they’ve only given up 70+ 13 times and three of those have come in the last five games. Now, Montana State and Eastern Washington are just one game out of first place with on game remaining.

They have a chance to bounce back against Weber State today, but they’ll need this win to give them some confidence heading into the Big Sky Tournament later this week.

East Tennessee State

02/23/26 KenPom: 133rd
03/02/26 KenPom: 140th

East Tennessee State has put together an incredible season. On February 11th, the Buccaneers were 19-7 overall and 11-2 in the SoCon. However, they won just two out of their last five games in the regular season. During that stretch they fell to Samford in overtime 82-72, Wofford 72-69, and Mercer 82-76 while picking up a 78-69 win against Furman and an 87-75 win against UNC Greensboro.

They are a well balanced team, sitting at 149th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 155th in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, on the season they have only won one game while scoring less than 73 points and they scored less than that in two of those three losses. Against Mercer they did shoot 45% overall, but Mercer was lights out from three as the Bears shot 52% on 21 attempts. In their loss to Wofford this week, the Buccaneers shot just 15% from three-point and 2x’d their turnovers compared to Wofford.

Despite a bit of a cool down, ETSU was able to secure the regular season title in their win against UNC Greensboro, giving a bye until they take on the winner of Chattanooga and The Citadel on Saturday. They’ll need to watch out for Samford in my opinion who finished the regular season winning eight of their last nine games.

The Weeks to Come

As we are officially in March, I thought it would be important to highlight the content we have coming up:

This will be the last “Heat Check Report” of the season! I’m looking forward to gathering feedback from you all on whether you enjoyed the new format this season compared to our previous “Top 25 Mid-Major” updates. Paid subscribers, you can expect to receive a survey at the end of the season.
As conference tournaments get started, we’ll be sending out extra newsletters throughout the week highlighting any upsets or major trends.
Once we have teams that have secured auto-bids to the NCAA Tournament, we’ll produce a handful of breakdowns so you know which teams have a good chance at becoming a Bracket Buster.
Yes…it’s back…we are going to be hosting out 3rd annual CBI Tournament Challenge! More details to come on the prize for the winner this season!

As always, thank you all for reading and contributing to growing the Mid-Major brand!

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Heat Check Report: Who's Peaking at the Right Time?

Elliott Crow — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:01:31 GMT

Folks, we are entering the final week of the regular season for some conferences. This time next week, we’ll be highlighting the kickoff of conference tournaments like Arch Madness and the Ohio Valley Conference as others wrap up the final games of the regular season.

This week, we saw the race for the Ohio Valley heat up as we have a three-way tie for first, while Navy, Long Island, Belmont, East Tennessee State, North Dakota State, Portland State, Austin Peay, High Point, Liberty, Wright State, and Merrimack all clinched the regular season title for their respective conferences.

I feel like we are going to see some upsets in March Madness this season as last year we lacked that element. With that said, let's dive into who’s heating up, who’s hot, and who’s cooling off as you prepare to figure out what teams you might be picking as a Bracket Buster.

Heating Up

Valparaiso

Photo: Valparaiso Athletics

02/16/26 KenPom: 158th
02/23/26 KenPom: 145th

Watch out, the Valparaiso Beacons are heating up! The Beacons have won three games in a row and five out of their last six games including two solid wins against Bradley 79-72 and UIC on the road 71-67 this week. Valpo has already surpassed their most wins in conference since joining the Missouri Valley Conference and they close out against Drake who is ice cold and Evansville who has just four wins against Division I opponents. They are favored to win both games which would put them at 18-13 on the season and 12-8 in the MVC heading into Arch Madness.

Looking back at their wins in conference, they’ve also taken down Northern Iowa while sweeping UIC and picking up a win against Illinois State. They’ve played Murray State close, losing 85-79, and lost twice to Belmont by just a combined five points. They’ve shown that they can easily compete with anyone in the conference and shouldn’t be overlooked in the always chaotic Arch Madness.

Over the course of the season, they’ve been driven by their defense which during this last stretch of six games has held opponents to 76 points or less in their five wins. They sit at 125th in defensive adjusted efficiency per KenPom and 183rd in offensive adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their metrics shape up:

Offensive:
- 331st in effective field goal percentage
- 102nd in turnover percentage
- 105th in offensive rebounding percentage
- 86th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt
- 229th in three-point shooting
- 342nd in two-point shooting
- 79th in block percentage
- 6th in steal percentage
Defensive:
- 122nd in opponent effective field goal percentage
- 162nd in opponent turnover percentage
- 67th in opponent three-point shooting
- 196th in opponent two-point shooting
- 54th in opponent free throw percentage
- 107th in opponent block percentage
- 61st in opponent non-steal turnover percentage
- 112th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt
- 71st in opponent assist per field goal made

Putting these metrics together, you’ll see that they offensively aren’t a great shooting team. However, they use their defense to apply pressure. They are 308th in tempo, so playing fast doesn’t fit into their style. They play excellent defense on the perimeter, so they force opponents to take contested shots from outside, limiting their ability to get into the paint.

Owen Dease has been one of the most consistent pieces for Valpo this season. He’s averaging 13.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.2 assists while shooting 46.3% overall and 40.7% from three-point. He is 222nd in the country in three-point shooting and 138th in free throw shooting percentage.

Freshman JT Pettigrew has been very underrated as he is averaging 11.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 37.4%. His 27% possession usage rate is 183rd, while his 10.4% offensive rebounding percentage is 209th in the nation. He is 108th in fouls drawn per game at 5.9 which translates into a strong 53.6 free throw rate which is 155th.

Wichita State

Photo: Wichita State Athletics

02/16/26 KenPom: 92nd
02/23/26 KenPom: 93rd

Shockers fans have been on a rollercoaster this season. Wichita State started off 4-1, then fell to 4-4. They moved to 9-5, then fell to 10-8. Now, they are 18-10, 10-5 in the American and winners of eight out of their last ten games. This week, they took down East Carolina 92-89 in double-overtime and Temple 69-57 at home after they beat a tough Tulsa team 81-77 the Saturday prior.

The Shockers are 133rd in offensive adjusted efficiency and 64th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 37th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 26th in opponent three-point shooting, 60th in opponent two-point shooting, and 57th in free throw percentage.

Their defense assists them mightily on the offensive end as they are 66th in turnover percentage, 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, 93rd in block percentage, 67th in steal percentage, and 106th in non-steal turnover percentage. They sit at 292nd three-point attempt vs field goal attempts vs 27th on the opponent end. Then they are 2511st in assist per field goals made vs 13rd on the opponent end. Essentially, they are living and dying by their defense.

On the offensive end, Kenyon Giles has been the engine throughout the entire season. Giles is averaging 19.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.7 steals while shooting 42.9% overall and 38.4% from beyond the arc. He features a 120.5 offensive rating which is 370th while he is taking 29.8% of the Shockers’ shots when he is on the court which is 92st.

On the defensive end, Will Berg has been a menace. He is averaging 8.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 52.6% overall. His 16.9% offensive rebounding percentage is 10th best in the country, while his 22.4% defensive rebounding percentage is 82nd. His 6.4% block percentage is 104th.

The Shockers will travel to Memphis this week and UTSA before they wrap up their season next week against FAU at home.

Eastern Washington

Photo: Eastern Washington Athletics

02/16/26 KenPom: 195th
02/23/26 KenPom: 172nd

Eastern Washington has put together one of the best comeback stories in college basketball this season. After starting just 5-17 the Eagles have now won six games in a row in the Big Sky as they sit at 11-17 overall and 9-6 in conference, just three games out of first place. During this stretch, they have been beating good teams. They took down Montana 82-74, Montana State 72-71, and first-place Portland state this past week 67-55.

There was no doubt that offensively they could win games, but their defense has been questionable all season up until this winning streak. During this stretch, they’ve allowed more than 75 points just once and even held Weber State to 66 and Portland State to 55. Despite this, their defensive adjusted efficiency is still 254th, highlighting their early season struggles.

On the offensive end, they are 112th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 108th in effective field goal percentage, 54th in three-point shooting percentage, 91st in free throw shooting percentage, and 56th in block percentage.

Isaiah Moses has been a facilitator on offense all year. He is averaging 17.8 points, three rebounds and four assists while shooting 45.2% overall and 43.6% from beyond the arc. Against Portland State and Sacramento State last week he averaged 24 points, six assists, 6.5 rebounds, and two steals per game. At one point, he had five 20+ point games in a row and he’s cracked 30 points twice. His 23.2 assist rate is 280th in the country, which he is 1st in free throw shooting percentage at a ridiculous 94.3% and he’s 91st in three-point shooting percentage. He’s not a free throw merchant either as he’s drawing less than five fouls per game. He’s earning his trips to the line the right way.

The Eagles will look to close out the season strong against Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona this week, then Idaho the following Monday. KenPom has been projected to win all three games which would put them at 14-17 and 12-6 in the Big Sky.

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On Fire

South Florida

Photo: South Florida Athletics

02/16/26 KenPom: 60th
02/23/26 KenPom: 55th

South Florida continued their strong season this week, picking up an 83-81 overtime win over FAU on the road and rolling past Memphis 87-66 at home. The Bulls have won five games in a row and sit at 19-8 on the season, 11-3 in the American, and well on their way to clinching the title. They are 1.5 games ahead of Wichita State who has also caught fire, and Tulsa. With four games remaining, South Florida takes on Rice & Memphis on the road while Tulane and Charlotte come to town. KenPom has South Florida favored in each of these last four games.

Izaiyah Nelson is officially averaging a double-double as he sits at 16 points and 10 rebounds on average. This week, he had 17 points, 15 rebounds, four blocks and two steals against Memphis, and nine points with ten rebounds against FAU. His incredible season continues.

Wes Enis has come on strong over the last month as well. Over his last eight games, he’s averaging 20 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals .His three-point shooting has stepped up as he is shooting 39% from beyond the arc during this stretch.

This team has the makeup to be dangerous in the NCAA Tournament if they are able to punch their ticket. Check out why I think South Florida could be a Bracket Buster below!

Merrimack

Photo: Merrimack Athletics

02/16/26 KenPom: 163rd
02/23/26 KenPom: 166th

Merrimack has won eight games in a row and just clinched the MAAC title yesterday after a fantastic 88-86 double-overtime thriller over Iona. They are 20-9 and 16-2 in conference after taking down Siena 79-72 in overtime this week.

The Warriors currently are sitting in their highest KenPom ranking since transitioning to Division I and have the metrics to support a potential sleeper pick conversation if they continue to close out the year strongly. This week they’ll take on Canisius and Niagara in what should be two more wins, leaving them at 22-9 on the season and 18-2 while cruising through the MAAC.

They are doing it on both ends of the court as they rank 195th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 139th in defensive adjusted efficiency. In particular, they have an incredible set of defensive metrics. They rank 19th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 10th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 46th in opponent two-point shooting percentage, 25th in opponent block percentage, 32nd in opponent turnover percentage, and 19th in opponent steal percentage.

They’ll probably line up as a 16-seed, however they should be the top 16 seeded team as of right now and could potentially sneak their way into the last 15-seed spot. If so, I’m saying it now…they could be a fun pick depending on who they matchup against. At the very least, it could be a fun battle similar to Robert Morris last season.

Other Teams

Miami ~ The RedHawks magical journey continued this week as they took down UMass 86-77 on the road and Bowling Green 91-77 at home. The RedHawks are now 27-0 on the season with just four games remaining, including three road games. This week, they’ll take on Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan both on the road.
High Point ~ The Panthers picked up a huge win over Winthrop at home 89-87. The Eagles had been nipping at High Point’s heels, but now High Point is on cruise control as they’ve won the regular season title of the Big South. They are 26-4 overall and 14-1 in conference with their only loss coming from Winthrop on the road 92-75.
Navy ~ The Midshipmen clinched their first Patriot League Title in over 20 years this week after dominating Lehigh 72-49. They also took down Army 81-63 as their dominating run continues. Navy is now 23-6 on the season and 15-1 in conference. They’ll close out the regular season against Loyola MD on the road and Colgate at home.
Stephen F. Austin ~ The Lumberjacks extended their winning streak to 13 games this week, taking down Texas A&M - Corpus Christi on the road 78-68 and Nicholls at home 81-78. Stephen F. Austin is now 25-3 and 18-1 in the Southland Conference with a two-game lead over the McNeese Cowboys. With three games remaining, they’ll look to clinch the title this week as they take on New Orleans at home and Houston Christian on the road.
Northern Colorado ~ Northern Colorado’s resurgence continued this week, taking down Northern Arizona 78-77 at home as they extending their winning streak to seven games. They are now back to over .500 in the Big Sky as they sit at 18-10 overall and 8-7 in the conference. They’ll face a hot Eastern Washington squad on the road and Idaho on the road this week in a true test to see if they can keep the momentum going.
Austin Peay ~ The Governors clinched the Atlantic Sun Title this weekend for the first time since joining the conference. They extended their winning streak to 10-games as they beat North Florida on the road 77-76 off a wild game winning shot and Jacksonville on the road 65-61. They are now 21-6 and 15-1 and continue to pass the eye test. Good teams find ways to win games that they don’t play their best and they did that twice this week. They’ll close out the regular season against Central Arkansas at home and Bellarmine on the road this week.

Cooling Down

Temple

02/16/26 KenPom: 161st
02/23/26 KenPom: 169th

The Temple Owls have fallen on hard times, losing four in a row after sitting at 15-8 on the season and 7-3 in the American. Over the stretch, they have lose to Tulane 77-66, North Texas 65-62, UAB 76-71, and Wichita State 69-57.

Offensively, they’ve fallen apart. They weren’t a great defensive team, but now that the offense has gotten cold, it’s exposed their weakness on the defensive end making it difficult to survive the cold stretch. Against Tulane, they shot just 24% from deep, against North Texas they choked at the free throw line shooting just 9-17, against UAB they shot just 1-15 from deep, then against Wichita State they shot just 5-13 from deep and 15-42 from inside the arc. Whether it’s shooting from three-point, inside, or at the line, it’s been a struggle.

Sitting at four games out of first place with just four games to go in the regular season, they are going to need to focus on closing out the season strong as they head to the conference tournament. They don’t have a walk in the park schedule either, playing FAU and Tulsa on the road while Rice and Tulane visit.

Oakland

02/16/26 KenPom: 152nd
02/23/26 KenPom: 158th

The Oakland Golden Grizzles started off on fire in the Horizon League, jumping out to a 10-3 record, but they’ve cooled off now after they just snapped a four-game losing streak against Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. During the stretch, they’ve fallen to Cleveland State 91-78, Youngstown State 86-82, Robert Morris 93-69, and Green Bay 73-68.

They’ve fallen quiet from beyond the arc, shooting just 24% against Cleveland State, 31% against Robert Morris, and 20% against Green Bay. Defensively, this has been the worst stretch of the entire season, giving up 86+ in three of the four games.

They are now three games out of first place with three games remaining, but they’ll take on IU Indy and Detroit Mercy for a fairly favorable end to their regular season schedule, however, they are going to have to use this to their advantage to gain some momentum going into the conference tournament if they want a chance to go dancing in 2026.

One to Watch

Morehead State

Photo: Morehead State Athletics

02/16/26 KenPom: 290th
02/23/26 KenPom: 278th

The Morehead State Eagles started off just 3-7 on the season and bounced around to 8-10 overall and 4-3 to start within the Ohio Valley Conference. Since January 17th, they’ve turned it on. The Eagles are now 17-12, 13-5 in the OVC, winners of five in a row, and 9-2 over their last 11 games.

This week, they took down Eastern Illinois 73-70 on the road and Western Illinois 81-59 on the road. While the bottom half of the OVC skews the conference’s overall stature this season, there are some strong teams at the top of the conference which has been an incredible battle down the stretch. Against those teams, they split the season series with SEMO, UT Martin, and Tennessee State while being swept by Lindenwood and sweeping SIUE.

Senior George Marshall has been strong all season, averaging 12.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, two assists, and 1.3 steals, but he’s been even better as of late. During this five-game winning streak, Marshall is averaging 13.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 assists. He’s had a couple of key performances, including their 61-55 upset win over UT Martin on the road as he finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and one steal while shooting 10-12 from the line.

The Eagles are tied with SEMO and Tennessee State for first in the OVC while UT Martin sits at just one game back coming into the last week of the regular season for the conference. It’s going to be a fun week for OVC fans.

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Can South Florida Become a Bracket Buster?

Elliott Crow — Thu, 19 Feb 2026 18:00:35 GMT

🔥 Don’t Sleep on South Florida!

Photo: South Florida Athletics

The Bulls are sitting at 18-8 and leading the American Conference, yet people are not talking about them enough as a March Madness threat.

Under first-year coach Bryan Hodgson, the Bulls have assembled a legitimate bracket buster. Star Izaiyah Nelson is averaging 16 points and 9.8 rebounds with 16 double-doubles, while the Bulls’ three conference losses came by a combined five points. They could easily be 13-0 in the American.

While running one of the quickest tempos in the country, with a tendency for getting to the free-throw line, South Florida has the profile to pull off a first-round upset and potentially make noise in the Round of 32. What’s my one concern? Depth. Their second unit drops off significantly, which could be exposed against power conference opponents.

👉 Check out our full breakdown below on what’s driven South Florida’s success so far and why I think they could become a bracket buster in the NCAA Tournament.

Heat Check Report: Who's Peaking in the Final Weeks?

Elliott Crow — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 18:02:31 GMT

It’s hard to believe that Selection Sunday is less than four weeks away, but now all eyes are on college basketball.

This week, we’ve had a ton of action. Saint Louis and Miami both kept their incredible seasons going, but we are seeing some middle of the pack teams starting to step up when it matters most, not only helping themselves, but putting pressure on those at the top. UIC drilled Illinois State as they are now 10-6 in the MVC, Northern Iowa is sneaking up in the MVC as well at 9-7, Cal State Northridge is on a five-game winning streak at 9-5 in the Big West, and Robert Morris has won four in a row to move to third in the Horizon League.

For these traditional one-bid leagues, it all comes down to the conference tournaments to have a shot at punching their tickets to the big dance. We’ve seen numerous upsets happen over the years in these tournaments, so as the top dog it’s more important than ever to build themselves cushion and not let off the pedal one bit.

Let’s take a look at who’s heating up, cooling off, and on fire coming out of last week in this week’s Heat Check Report!

Heating Up

Duquesne

Photo: Duquesne Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 114th
02/16/26 KenPom: 109th

Duquesne started just 3-5 in the Atlantic-10, but they’ve now won four games in a row including against George Mason the road, George Washington at home, and St. Bonaventure on the road who has been playing well.

During this four-game winning streak, they’ve bounced back to 15-10 overall and 7-5 in the A-10. In conference, they’ve yet to be blown out, kicking up against Dayton by six, Saint Louis by four, and St. Bonaventure by eight. They fell apart against Saint Joseph’s in overtime, losing 97-90, and their largest loss was to VCU 93-80.

They are a fairly equal team on the metrics, sitting at 110th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 124th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Dukes are 62nd in effective field goal percentage, 118th in three-point shooting percentage, and 53rd in two-point shooting percentage.

They’ve done an incredible job on the offensive end these last couple of weeks. Against Rhode Island, they shot 44% from deep on 27 attempts with 15 assists and 20-22 from the free throw line. Against the Patriots, they shot 44% overall, but limited themselves to just nine turnovers. Against George Washington, they shot 48% with just four turnovers compared to 12 assists. Then against the Bonnies, they shot 44% and had just six turnovers to 13 assists. When you are able to dish out the ball and limit turnovers, it’s a huge key to winning consistently.

Tarence Guinyard has been hot, averaging 19.7 points, four rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 steals in three out of the four games while missing the George Mason game. On the season, he’s averaging 16.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 48.1% overall and 38.7% from beyond the arc. His 61.3% true shooting percentage is 201st in the country while his 30.9 assist rate is 79th.

The Dukes have a bit of a gauntlet to finish the season, but this week they have a great opportunity against La Salle at home, then Dayton on the road. While all eyes are on Saint Louis and VCU right now, the Dukes have proven they can be a sneaky team. Finishing the season strong would put them on the map and potentially punch their ticket to the NIT.

Utah Tech

Photo: Utah Tech Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 196th
02/16/26 KenPom: 178th

Utah Tech has certainly rebounded over the last month as they are in the middle of a six-game winning streak after starting out just 10-11 and 3-4 in the WAC.

Last week, they took down Utah Valley 81-77 for their best win to date and Cal Baptist 70-65. The week prior, they beat UT Arlington 87-84 in double-overtime, so they have now won three games in a row against KenPom teams ranked 168th, 87th, and 120th.

They sit at 159th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 212th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 123rd in effective field goal percentage vs 125th in opponent effective field goal percentage, while also 132nd in three-point shooting percentage, 130th in two-point shooting percentage, and 10th in opponent three-point shooting percentage.

Their metrics aren’t eye-popping, but they do one thing extremely well. They are 35th in the country in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt while 10th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. They force their opponents to take contested shots from outside where they have a lockdown perimeter defense. During this six-game winning streak, opponents have scored more than 70 just three times.

Ethan Potter has been dominating as he is averaging 15.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 58.4% overall from the floor. His 125 offensive rating is 175th in the nation, while his 61.4% true shooting percentage is 19t5th, his 18.8% defensive rebounding percentage is 262nd.

They’ve got a tough schedule to close out over the next three weeks, but this week they’ll face the start of the test against UT Arlington and Tarleton State both on the road.

Texas State

Photo: Texas State Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 259th
02/16/26 KenPom: 243rd

The Texas State Bobcats have been playing excellent basketball as of late. After sitting at just 11-11 and 4-6 in the Sun Belt, they have fired off a six-game winning streak while taking down Marshall 72-68 and Troy 74-62. This week, they knocked off Troy and Louisiana Monroe 95-84.

They’re metrics aren’t mind blowing at just 271st in offensive adjusted efficiency and 200th in defensive adjusted efficiency. However, they win by playing old-school basketball. They are 237th in adjusted tempo, 223rd in two-point shooting percentage, and 365th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts. They are 3rd in the country in two-point percentage of their total points scored, compared to 364th from three-pointers. Essentially…they take no threes and it works. Against Troy, they were just 2-9 from deep, but 26-38 from inside the arc. Then against Louisiana Monroe this week, they were a decent 5-11 from three-point, but they were 36-53 from inside.

Freshman DJ Hall has been incredible. The 6’7 forward is averaging 15 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 55.4% overall. He is 222nd in the country with a 61% true-shooting percentage, and 108th with a 21.7% defensive rebounding percentage. Notably, he does a great job at getting to the line as well as he has a 43.2 free throw rate in which he converts at a high rate with an 80.9% free throw shooting percentage which is in the top-350.

This team is playing very well and they have two more huge opportunities to prove they are the real deal against South Alabama this week on the road and App State at home on February 27th.

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On Fire

High Point

Photo: High Point Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 97th
02/16/26 KenPom: 90th

High Point’s strong season continued this week as they took down USC Upstate 95-70 and Gardner Webb 112-87 both on the road. They are now 24-4 overall and 12-1 in the Big South while in the midst of an eight game winning streak.

The Panthers have yet to have a bad loss as their four came against UAB, Southern Illinois, App State in overtime, and Winthrop on the road. They’ll battle against fellow top-dog in the Big South Winthrop again this upcoming Saturday as High Point has just three games remaining in conference.

Their offense continues to carry them as they are 56th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 42nd in effective field goal percentage, 27th in two-point shooting percentage, and 5th in turnover percentage. They can do it on the other end as well though as they are 4th in opponent turnover percentage and first in the country in opponent steal percentage. They do a great job of maintaining ball control, pace of the game, and getting the open shot.

They’ll look to stay hot against UNC Asheville and Winthrop both at home this week.

Winthrop

Photo: Winthrop Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 125th
02/16/26 KenPom: 132nd

As we mentioned above, Winthrop has a date with High Point next Saturday which is going to be a must-watch game. While High Point has won eight games in a row, Winthrop has won eleven.

This week, they took down Gardner Webb 103-85 in their lone game. They currently sit at 91st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 42nd in turnover percentage, 15th in steal percentage, 151st in three-point shooting percentage, and 222nd in two-point shooting percentage.

They don’t run a high-octane offense like High Point, but they aren’t far behind at 101st in adjusted tempo. The difference is, they live and die by the three. Winthrop is 61st in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts while High Point is just 121st. The Eagles are slightly behind in three-point shooting vs High Point, however, since they take more in volume, it practically evens out.

During this stretch, they’ve scored less than 80 points in just four games, while breaking 90+ twice and 100 points from this past week. As we round out the final two weeks of the regular season for the Big South, the battle between these two teams is going to be incredible to watch.

VCU

Photo: VCU Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 46th
02/16/26 KenPom: 46th

After starting off just 2-2 in the Atlantic-10, VCU has fired off a nine game winning streak. This past week, they took down La Salle 77-68 and Richmond 78-67 both on the road.

During this stretch, they have swept Richmond, drilled Dayton, and handled the majority of their opponents with ease. They are 48th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 64th in defensive adjusted efficiency. In the NET, they are currently ranked X.

The Atlantic-10 has once again cannibalized itself, however, VCU still has a chance to earn the conference two bids to March Madness. They’ll close out the season with two road games against Saint Louis and Dayton, then three homes games against George Washington, Fordham, and George Mason. If they can win four out of five, dropping just the game to Saint Louis, then they’ll be 24-7, 15-3 in conference and somewhere in the 30’s of KenPom. It’ll be close, but I think they can squeeze out a bid as long as they do well in the Atlantic-10 tournament.

They have a great blend of metrics that could bode well or a win or two in the NCAA Tournament. They are 56th in effective field goal percentage, 64th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 50th in three-point shooting, 76th in two-point shooting, 50th in opponent two-point shooting, and 77th in adjusted tempo.

Cooling Off

George Mason

02/09/26 KenPom: 79th
02/16/26 KenPom: 95th

After starting off the season 20-2 and 8-1 in the Atlantic 10, it’s been a cold couple of weeks for the Patriots. They are just 1-3 in their last four games, dropping losses to Duquesne 71-65, Richmond 82-70, and George Washington 72-53 while picking up a 60-52 win against Saint Joseph’s.

The three-ball is currently holding the Patriots back. In those three losses, the best they shot was 39% and they fell to 35% and 24% against George Washington and Richmond. Turnovers have also been a problem as they had nine assists to 15 turnovers against Richmond and 13 assists to 17 turnovers against Duquesne.

The Patriots are still 21-5 and 9-4 in the Atlantic Ten, but they’ve sealed their chances at a potential at-large bid, leaving VCU as the last team aside from Saint Louis with any chance to earn a second bid from the conference.

They’ll look to attempt to bounce back against a Dayton team that’s also been struggling on Wednesday.

Troy

02/09/26 KenPom: 124th
02/16/26 KenPom: 143rd

Troy has been one of the most up-and-down teams in all of college basketball this season. From beating San Diego State, to winning ten out of eleven, to now just winning two out of their last six, but beating Akron 79-69. They have two wins against top-70 KenPom teams, but four losses to sub-220 KenPom teams. Wild.

This week, they fell to Texas State 74-62 and Southern Mississippi 69-65. Their other two losses during this stretch were to James Madison 73-64 and App State 66-44, while they took down Georgia State 74-63 and Akron as I mentioned.

Right now, scoring points is a challenge. This is a team that has scored 83+ points in 14 of their 27 games this season. During this cold stretch, they’ve yet to score 80 and they’ve scored 65 or less four times. This week, they shot just 27% from deep against Southern Mississippi and just 36% overall against Texas State. Similar to George Mason, turnovers have been a problem as well as the Trojans had 15 turnovers to just 9 assists against the Bobcats and 15 turnovers against the Golden Eagles.

They’ll look to right the ship this week against Louisiana Monroe and South Alabama both on the road.

One to Watch

UMBC

Photo: UMBC Athletics

02/09/26 KenPom: 260th
02/16/26 KenPom: 236th

The UMBC Retrievers have quietly put together a strong season in the America East. They sit at 16-8 overall and 9-2 in conference while winning four in a row and seven of their last eight.

While they aren’t in particularly dominant in one single category, they are efficient at maintaining control of the ball and with their shot selection. They sit at 101st in effective field goal percentage, 35th in turnover percentage, 152nd in three-point shooting percentage, 90th in two-point shooting percentage and 24th in blocking percentage.

The Retrievers have four players averaging 10+ points per game, with Jah’Likai King leading the way with 13.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game on average while shooting 40.6% overall and 26.9% from deep. Ace Valentine has been a facilitator as the 6’3 junior is averaging 11.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists compared to just 1.3 turnovers.

UMBC will look to stay hot against Vermont and UAlbany this week.

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Heat Check Report: Conference Standings Tighten

Elliott Crow — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 18:02:22 GMT

Welcome back to another Heat Check Report!

Miami remained perfect with wins over Buffalo and Marshall both on the road this week as they move to 24-0 and should remain #23 next week in the AP Poll or move up a spot to #22. Saint Louis extended their winning streak to 17 games as they move to 23-1 and 11-0 in the Atlantic-10. Belmont picked up their ninth win in a row as they hold onto first place in the Missouri Valley Conference and extended their lead by two games. Stephen F. Austin took down McNeese, and so much more.

Let’s dive into who’s heating up, who’s on fire, and who’s cooling down in this week’s Heat Check Report!

Heating Up

Jacksonville State

Photo: Jacksonville State Athletics

02/02/26 KenPom: 205th
02/09/26 KenPom: 185th

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have won five out of their last six games to move to 13-10 on the season and 8-4 in the Conference USA. They started off rocky at just 4-6 including losses to North Alabama, Georgia State, and Eastern Kentucky in which all three have aged poorly. However, they hit the reset button once they reached conference play and they do do have a strong non-conference win over East Tennessee State on the road.

This week, they took down Western Kentucky 71-66 and Kennesaw State 77-58. Looking at their four conference losses they fell to Liberty 78-69, Kennesaw State 88-82, Sam Houston 77-62, and Missouri State 74-67, so aside from the Sam Houston game all have been close.

As a team, they are 185th in KenPom, 244th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 125th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 56th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 130th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 61st in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and 78th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

On the offensive end, they have an incredibly interesting makeup of metrics. They are 312th in tempo and 316th in average possession length. They rank 5th in the country in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts, but they are just 299th in free throw shooting percentage. In fact, they rank 35th in the country with nearly 25 free throw attempts per game. Their defense is carrying them, so with the lack of shooting abilities the theory is to get to the line as much as possible to guarantee themselves the opportunity to score even if they convert at a low rate.

Looking at their key players, Mostapha El Moutaouakkil has been phenomenal this season. The 6’6 senior is averaging 18.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 45.8% from the floor and 31.9% from beyond the arc. He’s essentially the main driver of everything on the offensive end as he is 3rd in the country in usage percentage and 10th in the nation in shot percentage as he is taking 33.9% of the Gamecocks’ shots when he is on the floor. Leaning into the free throw scheme, he is 7th in the nation while drawing nearly eight fouls per game which corresponds into a 62.3 free throw rate which is 70th.

The Gamecocks have figured out how to win games while lacking a strong ability to score, which is powered by their defense and ability to draw fouls. This week, they’ll look to keep it rolling against UTEP and New Mexico State both at home.

Northern Colorado

Photo: Northern Colorado Athletics

02/02/26 KenPom: 186th
02/09/26 KenPom: 162nd

It’s been a while since I’ve written about Northern Colorado because after a tremendous start to the season at 10-3 with a win over Colorado and competitive loss to Texas Tech on the road, the Bears fell apart. They went on a 2-9 stretch over eleven games, but they’ve rebounded with a four-game winning streak. During their 1-7 start in the Big Sky, they never lost by double-digits and they lost six games by six or less points.

As a team, they are 128th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 223rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. During this winning streak, their defense has been the key. They’ve held opponents to less than 75 points in three of the four games.

Looking at their offensive metrics, they’ve never slowed down. They are 35th in effective field goal percentage, 84th in three-point shooting percentage, 31st in two-point shooting percentage, 80th in free throw shooting percentage, 17th in block percentage, and 57th in steal percentage.

Quinn Denker missed some time with an injury, but he has had no problem coming back. On the season, he is averaging 18.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and seven assists while shooting 48.4% overall and 33.3% from three-point. During this four game winning streak, he’s dropped 30+ points twice. He is 77th in possession usage, 19th in assist rate at 37.6, and he is 24th in the Big Sky with a 15.3% defensive rebounding percentage.

Brock Wisne has emerged as a great support piece to Denker as he is averaging 15.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 57.1% from the floor at 39.1% from three-point. He is 116th in effective field goal percentage, 179th in true-shooting percentage, and 263rd in two-point shooting percentage.

The Bears have six games remaining, four of which are at home including Sacramento State and Portland State this week. If they can close out going 4-2 or 5-1 then they will have built an incredible amount of momentum going into the Big Sky tournament.

Samford

Photo: Samford Athletics

02/02/26 KenPom: 241st
02/09/26 KenPom: 222nd

It’s been an up-and-down season for the Samford Bulldogs underneath Lennie Acuff in year one, however, the Bulldogs have now won four out of their last five games including a dominating victory of Mercer 69-49 on Saturday to move to 13-12 on the season and 6-6 in the Southern Conference.

This team is the polar opposite of Jacksonville State as they are 169th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 270th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are 4th in turnover percentage, 36th in free throw attempts vs field goal attempts, 4th in steal percentage, 200th in three-point shooting percentage, and 185th in two-point shooting percentage.

On the defensive end, they are 218th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 351st in opponent turnover percentage, 47th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 300th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 131st in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 28th in opponent block percentage, and 358th in opponent steal percentage.

While their defensive metrics don’t look great on the surface, they do a good job at forcing opponents to take shots inside the arc. Opponents are scoring just 29.9% of their points from beyond the arc where the Bulldogs are just 300th in the nation in opponent shooting percentage, compared to them scoring 50.8% of their points from inside where the Bulldogs are 131st.

Jadin Booth and Dylan Fulkner have been the go-to guys on offense for the Bulldogs, powered by Keaton Norris who is averaging 4.6 assists to just 1.3 turnovers per fame. Booth is averaging 20.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and one steal per game while shooting 44.8% overall and 42.9% from three-point. He sits at 107th in true shooting percentage, 46th in free throw shooting percentage, 149th in three-point shooting percentage, and 273rd in offensive rating.

Faulkner is averaging 17.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 62.4% from the floor. He is 40th in possession usage at 30.6%, 67th in effective field goal percentage, 47th in defensive rebounding percentage at 24.5%, 112th in block percentage at 6.4%, 4th in fouls drawn per game at 8.6 with a 78.7 free throw rate which is 18th overall, and he is 187th in two-point shooting percentage.

Samford has a tough week, but it’s a good opportunity to prove that this run is legitimate. They take on Wofford at home on Wednesday, then they’ll travel to take on a tough East Tennessee State squad on Saturday.

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On Fire

Central Arkansas

Photo: Central Arkansas Athletics

02/02/26 KenPom: 188th
02/09/26 KenPom: 165th

Welcome to On Fire status! The Bears have now won seven games in a row in the Atlantic Sun with wins over both Queens and Lipscomb on the road. This week they beat Lipscomb 86-78 behind Camren Hunter’s 32 points, and North Alabama 81-60 with Luke Moore dropping 15 points with seven assists.

Hunter is now averaging 18.8 points with 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 50.3% overall. As a team, they are 74th in the nation in two-point shooting percentage and 94th in effective field goal percentage.

There was a big question just a couple of short weeks ago about whether or not they could win on the road and now they are 3-0 in their last three road wins including those Queens and Lipscomb games.

This is a very dangerous team in the Atlantic Sun that’s closing in on Austin Peay quickly. You are going to want to pay attention to the Atlantic Sun down the stretch as it’s emerged as one of the most enjoyable late conference battles this season.

They look to stay hot this week as they take on North Alabama on the road and Bellarmine at home.

Navy

Photo: Navy Athletics

02/02/26 KenPom: 171st
02/09/26 KenPom: 166th

Colgate is the traditional force in the Patriot League, but Navy is well on their way to putting their best season together since 2022. The Midshipmen are 19-6 and 11-1 in the Patriot League while having lost just one game since November 29th. Their losses in the non-conference are not shameful either as they fell to Yale, Penn State, North Carolina, UNC Wilmington, and SELA.

Navy is 240th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 107th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They always say that defense wins championships right? They sit at 49th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 31st in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, 14th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, 17th in opponent free throw attempt vs field goal attempt, and 152nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

They’ve won seven games in a row and Austin Benigni is the leading driver. The 5’11 guard is averaging 18.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 42.8% overall and 46.6% from three-point. He is 127th in possession usage, 196th in assist rate, 75th in free throw shooting percentage and 47th in three-point shooting.

The Midshipman will face off against Bucknell, then Colgate for the first time in conference play. KenPom has them projected to win five of their last six games, losing just one game to Colgate on the road by a point.

Cooling Down

Mercer

02/02/26 KenPom: 139th
02/09/26 KenPom: 167th

After starting off 13-7 and 5-2 in the Southern Conference, the Mercer Bears are just 2-3 in their last five games with their two wins being against UNC Greensboro (311th in KenPom) and VMI (359th in KenPom). This week they fell to Chattanooga 79-75 and Samford 69-49.

They shot just 10-41 from beyond the arc against Samford and Chattanooga, 27% overall against the Bulldogs and 31% against the Mocs. As a team, they are 131st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 162nd in three-point shooting percentage, 142nd in two-point shooting percentage, and 141st in effective field goal percentage, so this has been an unusual stretch.

Star guard Baraka Okojie had 19 points and 25 points, but he didn’t get much help considering he had 25 of the team’s 49 points against Samford.

The Bears are going to look to bounce back this week against Furman at home and The Citadel on the road.

Lipscomb

02/02/26 KenPom: 158th
02/09/26 KenPom: 176th

The Lipscomb Bisons were hot, sitting at 14-7 and 7-1 in the Atlantic Sun, but they’ve now fell to just 8-4 in conference as they are 1-3 in their last four gams including a loss to Jacksonville who sits at 304th in KenPom. They took down North Florida 100-94, but fell to Austin Peay on the road 87-76 and Central Arkansas at home 96-78.

Amid this stretch, they’ve fallen to fourth place in the conference behind Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, and Queens. There is no one key area that they’ve been struggling with during this stretch. Against Jacksonville, they shot just 30% from three-point, which is their do-or-die style of play. Austin Peay shot lights out against them as they finished shooting 60% from both the floor and from three-point, while Lipscomb shot just 29% from three-point. Central Arkansas crushed them on the boards with 14 offensive rebounds, while Lipscomb shot just 15-22 from the free throw line. It’s been a mix of different areas and they haven’t been blown out in any games, which gives me confidence that this should be just a blip on the season, similarly to their start to the season.

They’ll look to get on track against Eastern Kentucky and Queens this week. If they can go 2-0, they’ll be right back in the picture with just a couple of weeks left in the regular season and a friendly schedule to close out the season.

One to Watch

Cornell

Photo: Cornell Athletics

02/02/26 KenPom: 173rd
02/09/26 KenPom: 156th

The Big Red of Cornell have been up-and-down, but they’ve quietly now won four of their last five games, including a key win against Harvard on the road 86-79. They are now 11-10 overall and 4-4 in the Ivy League.

What’s important to know about Cornell is, they are all gas and no brakes on offense. They sit at 46th in offensive adjusted efficiency, 13th in tempo, 4th in average possession length…and just 350th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They are an offensive fan’s dream team.

Cornell is 10th in effective field goal percentage, 9th in three-point shooting, and 21st in two-point shooting percentage. Notably, they are also 3rd in assists per field goal made and 7th in three-point attempts vs field goal attempts as they score 42.5% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 4th most in the country. They are the true definition of “live or die by the three”.

This is the type of team that if they get hot from deep, they could stun the favorites in the Ivy League and punch a ticket to the big dance. However, if they do that, don’t count them out. Mid-Majors that can shoot lights out from deep have the potential for a first-round upset…remember Jack Gohlke?

The Big Red will look to keep it going against Princeton and Penn on the road this week.

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